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I’ve asked this before, but with two weeks remaining I thought I’d ask again.
Are the national Republicans heading for total disaster on election day? With the Democrats pick up the US House and US Senate? Yes, this is a national question, and I usually try to avoid them, but to give it a local twist I’d like you to also note whether you think any GOP disaster/non-disaster will have an impact on Illinois races, including the governor’s race.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:16 am
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No, I do not believe the Republicans are headed for electoral disaster. The Dems will make gains in the House and Senate, but I don’t know if it will be enough to change the balance of power in any house.
I don’t think it will have any effect here in Illinois.
train111
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:44 am
I think the GOP numbers will be a lot less than they have been for a while. As for Shimkus, the print media’s love fest (they’ve had one with Shimkus since voters mistakenly put him in office) with him is over:
1. The STL P-D (an allegedly Dem paper) has had a love fest The editors have continually endorsed him. Not this year. They endorsed Dan Stover.
2. The S J-R has done the same turnaround from what I hear. Instead of continuing their mistake, their endorsement went to Stover.
3. So. Illinoisan will probably do the same thing.
4. Chi Trib doesn’t count in Central & So. IL.
In addition, Durbin & Blago provided their support to Stover last Fri. night at the JFK Dinner in Collinsville. Durbin also surprised me. Not only does he refuse to apologize to Shimkus (since he does NOT deserve one), he reminded everyone that the teens & their parents deserve a most heart-felt apology from Congress.
I expect Shimkus’ll carry Richland Co. — just like Alan Keyes in 2004. Beyond that, he’s toast on a sinking ship. His 4 staffers from Ryan’s SOS years are probably farming out their resumes as we speak.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:45 am
20 seats in the House, MT, RI, PA, NJ, OH and TN all go dem, VA stays R and Missouri decides the Senate.
Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:48 am
Forum in your dreams when you wake up the 8th Shimkus will still be in office.At 52% to 35% it’s back to theiving from that small town Stover’s from and even the people there are giving Shimkus 3 to 1.
Comment by DOWNSTATE Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:53 am
Good call, Snark, except that I would say TN stays GOP, MO goes GOP, GOP keeps Senate by 2.
In the House the number will be between 12 and 18 Demo pickups. Obviously, where it lands in that range determines control.
My bet is GOP keeps control of both, just barely.
Shimkus stays, but Johnson gets the $#$@ scared out of him with a closer than anyone thought nite.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:53 am
That depends on your definition of disaster. Will it be a “typical” midterm 6 years into an administration? Sounds like it at this point. Over the past twenty years, Congresspersons have gerrymandered themselves into computer-generated districts. So, there are few competative seats. Instead of a 98% re-election rate, perhaps we are seeing a 94%. There is really nothing out there that is showing a political realignment. This is no 1994.
Two weeks is an eternity in politics with the 24/7 media. Every week there is a new political mini-scandal. I believe both parties are preparing new scandal-bombs to unleash in the next two weeks to alter any momentum towards the other.
The big question is how the electorate will decide the events in Iraq. The President has demonstrated that he can change the tone of this election when he chooses. He is choosing to do so this week with announcements regarding timetables. How Bush unveils his newest pitch to voters can make a big difference for the GOP.
So, I predict a GOP loss, typical for 6th year administrations. I would be very surprised to see either Houses switch however. Nothing earth shaking.
As to Illinois, the ongoing Blagojevich scandals and indictments continue. Polls are showing that voters will decide on his guilt or innocence on election day. Currently only 39% believe Blagojevich has done a good job, but his multimillion dollar smear job on Topinka has cost her greatly. Like Grey Davis, Blagojevich is willing to destroy anything to be re-elected, but may see his re-election term ending sooner than later with an indictment. This atmosphere in Illinois has changed what would normally be a big blue Democratic year into a mismash. Although Blagojevich has been a poor governor, his challenger has not had the funding or the ability to challenge his mismanagement. Instead with the negative ad campaign that began against Topinka in March, Blagojevich set the tone for a campaign not about his poor administration skills, but asks the question of voters as to choose between who is more corrupt. Blagojevich has done another great disservice to Illinois by running a very wicked campaign.
So I guess the GOP is NOT headed for disaster. Compared to the last three elections in which they gained seats, some will say that this year is a disaster. But in attempting to win via scandal, rumor-mongering and media duplicity, the Democrats have set themselves up for slaughter in 2008. And then perhaps go the way of the Whigs.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:55 am
I think that the disaster for the GOP will come to pass and that the national party’s many distractions have had a noticable effect in the 6th District, e.g. letting the many iterations of the “Roskam accused Iraq war vet of ‘cutting and running’” story fester and run for a week.
But I don’t know if it will do more than make that race closer than it would have been otherwise.
Comment by So-Called "Austin Mayor" Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:58 am
Dems take the house and the Senate is evenly divided.
Snark, with your prediction, the Senate goes Dem even if Talent is re-elcted in Missouri. We only need 6 to take the Senate….not seven.
Comment by Coloradem Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 9:59 am
PF,
“Toast on a sinking ship” may be the greatest metaphor ever.
– SCAM
Comment by So-Called "Austin Mayor" Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:06 am
No big Dem tidal wave. They will narrowly take back the House. In the Senate, if Talent(MO) and Burns (MT) lose, and Menendez (NJ) can hold on to his seat, they will narrowly take the Senate. Otherwise, it stays GOP. There will no big IL effects. Rod wins by 8 - 10 points in a low turn out election. Bean wins by at least 10 points. Roskam wins 50 - 46 - 4. All of these things would have happen in any year without this year’s Dem winnings execpt that Duckworth’s percentage is up slightly as a result.
Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:08 am
I hate all these vague “Dems will pick up seats, but not enough to take the majority” or “Dems +20 seats” calls. I think it’s time we need to start specifically naming districts. How many GOP districts have multiple independent polls showing a Democrat leading by more the margin of error?
Last I checked, that number is short of 15 (maybe 10?). It’s not *far* short of 15, and if enough toss-ups go their way they may still get that 20-seat gain.
I just think it’s foolish to say anything’s a sure thing as long as the Dems are counting on toss-ups to break their way to get to 15. (Not to say those toss-ups *won’t* ultimately go their way, I’m just saying, they’re tossups.)
The 6th is a great case. Duckworth may well win. But you’d be dumb to bet on her specifically being one of the 15 pickups given the polls.
Comment by anonymous99 Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:11 am
No way Shimkus loses to Stover. The P-D’s endorsement is just another in their long line of always trumpeting democrats for state and national offices.
Comment by diane Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:18 am
Duckworth, Bean and Pavich all win. Seals comes close. Madigan grabs two seats. Emil adds one (Gutzmer). Denny hangs on to the House by three seats and the Senate goes to the Donkeys. Sad day for the GRAND OLD PARTY on Nov 8th–nasty political hangover
Comment by 23eyes Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:23 am
GOP loses the U.S. House. Keeps the Senate despite themselves.
Complete and total disaster for GOP in Illinois. National mood not helping, but the real drag is the wacky Topinka, and lack of leadership from Cross and Watson. Both see their caucuses shrink more into irrelevancy.
Some will try to blame Bush on Wednesday after the election. But all the blame belongs right here. GOP in Illinois guilty of nothing short of political malpractice.
Comment by Real Clear Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:26 am
National disaster for the GOP. Dems take the House and the Senate. Roskam I believe will win but the Repub’s will be shut out the rest of the way in Illnois. The national mood is as bad for the GOP now as it was in 1994 for the Dems but with fewer competitive spots because of gerrymandering, there will be fewer Dem pick ups this year than the Repub’s had in 1994. I think the GOP will lose 25 to 30 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate. The Dem wave will have less of an effect in Illinois because it is now so solidly Democratic.
Comment by paddyrollingstone Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:40 am
I think GOP will maintain control of both House and Senate; I’d like your next question to be, “What will the Democrats do if they lose this seemingly golden opportunity to win back at least one House of Congress?”
Comment by byteme Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:44 am
Races Dems pick up:
(20 in the House):
TX22, IN2, IN8, IA1, FL16, FL13, CT2, CT4, CO7, AZ8, MN6, NM1, NY24, NY26, PN6, PN10, PN7, OH18, OH15, VT-AL;
5 in the Senate:
MT, PA, RI, OH, MO
Races Reps pick up:
nothing in either house.
Comment by Coloradem Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:49 am
dems will pickup these 13 seats…then you need 2 out of the dozens that are in play, not a very hard thing to do.
TX 22
AZ 8
IN 2
IN 8
FL 16
PA 6
PA 7
PA 10
NM 1
NC 11
OH 15
OH 18
IA 1
In the Senate the Dems pick up PA, OH, RI, and MT and just hang on to NJ. Dems will either win both MO and TN or lose them both. Both of these seats, in more conservative states, will depend on the level of excitement among Dems and Independents. If there is strong turnout in one it is likely there will be in the other.
Comment by HANKSTER Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:51 am
I work in the private sector a long way from Chicago or Springfield. From what I am hearing from the independent voters this will be a big year for Democrats up and down the ballot because of everthing that is going on the National level.
Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:52 am
The polling data is useless. People poll with their mouths, but vote with their pocketbooks.
Nationally, the economy is doing great. Don’t hear anyone blaming Bush and the GOP for that, do you?
The GOP will hold all majorities. Count on it.
Comment by Southern Illinoisian Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:53 am
They are heading for total disaster. They are running anti-immigration ads across the country to excite their base, a base that is, in my estimation, fatigued after six years of having their fear and anger manipulated by Karl Rove.
But that aside, this is not the primary, and the people who are going to cast their vote on the immigration issue represent only a small fraction of the Republican Party, let alone the voting population as a whole.
The Republicans did such an effective job of convincing voters that Iraq was the most important issue that, even though public opinion has turned against the war, people still are still going to cast their vote based on the war.
Only now the Democrats own the issue, and the Republicans are having no success convincing anybody that stopping illegal immigration is more important/a greater threat than Iraq.
Indeed, this campaign on immigration is ineffective at best, but at worst makes the party appear xenophobic and ethnocentric. And that’s putting it mildly.
Comment by M.V. Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 10:56 am
M.V. - Your comment is just what one would expect from a Kos Kiddie.
And THAT’s putting it mildly.
Comment by Southern Illinoisian Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:06 am
I think it’ll be scary but I think Republicans will be OK. They’ll barely be able to pull it off. I don’t think the public has that much faith in the Democrats. The Illinois Republicans aren’t that much better off with or without this scandal, but then again neither are the Democrats.
Comment by Levois Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:08 am
Democrats will win ever Constitutional office in Illinois and pick up 35 seats in the US House and 6 seats in the US Senate.
Comment by (618) Democrat Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:09 am
“23eyes” you said Madigan would pick up two seats? Which seats do you mean? He’s not even playing seriously in any districts, unless you count the very late Parke mailers and the non-MJM operation in Elman’s district.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:12 am
Democrats pick up seats, but the GOP maintains control of both houses. Shimkus is re-elected. Nothing earth shattering here.
Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:12 am
I was told there’d be no math? Actually the NJ seat is a current dem seat so even though I have 7 listed there, it’s really 6 republican seats and 1 democratic.
Comment by Snark Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:20 am
With all factitiousness aside 2 weeks before an election, change is imminent, that much is true.
Richland Co. is leading the way for change. The county organization — along with adjacent counties — have been working on the governor’s Get Out The Vote effort.
Chairman Randy Blackford was the FIRST chairman to call Stover with advise on the Shimkus/Foley scandal. Richland Co. is the home of a GREAT state rep. candidate, Iraqi War Vet Brandt E. Patterson.
Also consider this: 2002 was an unusual turnout because TWO incumbents were running for election in the SAME congressional district. It produced a 50 percent turnout. In 2004, the presidential race & the evangelical Right produced a two-thirds turnout. 2006 will be a normal turnout year. Compare the 2002 turnout in the 11th, 15th, & 18th CDs. The turnout is the thing. Richland Co. & the central committees in the 18th State Rep. District are leading the way to make the area blue again.
Comment by Philosophe Forum Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:21 am
Strangely, going race-by-race I have more pick-ups for Dems in the House than I’d predict in a gross count. I’d expect a 25 seat pickup with two things driving it–realignment in the Northeast (New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania and Connecticut), some ethics losses for Republicans elsewhere–notably California, and a few other seats like IA-1 and IL-6. That said, when I went race by race I came up with a pickup of 45 seats. That’s at the higher end of the most of the prognosticators’ guesses, but not out of their range. So I’ll say between 25 and 45 pickup by Dems in the House. I only have IL-6 switching though with low turnout from Republicans making IL-10 the wildcard.
In the Senate, I have it 51-49 Dems with Tennessee going to Ford, Virginia staying with Allen and Missouri going to McCaskill. Two challenges here are whether Lieberman bolts the party and whether Chafee pulls another rabbit out of his hat as he did on primary day.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:28 am
Philo–
Leaving aside the fact that Richland County is TINY, the GOP Congressional and State Rep. candidates will likely carry it by large margins. Same with Jasper, and Effingham.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:49 am
Rich, what is the deal w/Parke v. Fredo (Crespo)(godfather reference). SO Madigan did not come through w/ the big $ he pledged. I did hear Emil is spending a fortune for Noland (I’ll pay you to hold my signs or I’ll dump them in your yard anyway).
Comment by Wumpus Diva Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:50 am
With all factitiousness aside 2 weeks before an election, change is imminent, that much is true.
Richland Co. is leading the way for change. The county organization — along with adjacent counties — have been working on the governor’s Get Out The Vote effort.
Chairman Randy Blackford was the FIRST chairman to call Stover with advise on the Shimkus/Foley scandal. Richland Co. is the home of a GREAT state rep. candidate, Iraqi War Vet Brandt E. Patterson.
Also consider this: 2002 was an unusual turnout because TWO incumbents were running for election in the SAME congressional district. It produced a 50 percent turnout. In 2004, the presidential race & the evangelical Right produced a two-thirds turnout. 2006 will be a normal turnout year. Compare the 2002 turnout in the 11th, 15th, & 18th CDs. The turnout is the thing. Richland Co. & the central committees in the 18th State Rep. District are leading the way to make the area blue again.
Philosophe Forum,
After the election is over, please try to come back to reality. Shimkus has no chance on losing…not even the slightest chance. Dont you think the House Dems would be taking a role in the race if it were even remotely close? Just because you are working on the race doesnt give you the right to lose all sense of reality.
Comment by uiucleader Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:54 am
Hey Real Clear,
If Topinka loses, can we put any blame on so-called “Republicans” who run attack radio ads on Topinka?
Comment by Bubs Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:57 am
Arch,
Even if IL-10 sees low GOP turnout, the lay Republicans are ticked at Kirk and very open to learning about Dan Seals. They like that he worked for Lieberman for a time and also that he is a businessman and other aspects of his biography.
They also don’t like that Kirk has all but disappeared….
Comment by NW burbs Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 12:04 pm
I think it’s a big year for the dems but I can only predict locally.
Beam wins-It isn’t really that close, her voters seem to like her and she is looking pretty hot lately.
Seals wins-dems, independents and progressive repubs flock to the polls and bury Kirk.
Duckworth loses-very close but dems disgruntled from primary torpedo her.
Topinka wins-I just can’t believe woman voters are not going to come to their senses. I could be wrong on this one but it will be closer than anyone thinks-2 points either way.
Peraica wins-Huge numbers of independent voters that come out to bury the Republicans also target the county board race.
Giannoulias wins-Huge numbers of independent voters almost take him out but with Obama, money, good looks and an under funded opponent he wins.
All other statewide and county races go to the dems.
Comment by Garp Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 12:35 pm
It’s hard now not to predict a Democratic takeover of the House, based on the polling data. They are all but assured about 10 seats and then they need to pick up only 5 more out of the 25-35 in play. Smart money is on them.
That said, it is not a disaster for the GOP. It is the sixth year of a now-very-unpopular President with an unpopular war. Duh, the Republicans are gonna have a bad election. Doesn’t mean they can’t take back the House in ‘08. And my gut is that the Senate stays in Republican hands just barely. The question is whether the Dems can take 2 of 3 in Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia, and I’m betting they can’t.
At the Illinois level, I see the general national climate helping for a statewide sweep for the Democratic ticket; not sure how the state congressional races play out. Bean is safe, Kirk is mostly safe and Duckworth most definitely isn’t safe. The next 2 weeks are critical in terms of how these latter two races play out. I think the Republicans have the ground advantage in both, but national storylines could overwhelm the Repubs if the news doesn’t improve between now and Nov. 7.
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 12:44 pm
Sorry, one more national point: check out www.majoritywatch.com for a better overview of the House contest. What some Republicans don’t get yet, because they’re not from there, is what an absolute melt-down for the Republican party is taking place in the Northeast. They hate Bush up there, and Iraq, and if the Dems take over Congress it will be because of states like New York and Connecticut. (That’s an interesting state comparison right there - which state’s GOP is more screwed up right now, Illinois’s or New York’s?)
By contrast, in most of the South and Rocky Mountain west the Republicans are fine, and ditto for analogous parts of Illinois - Shimkus is safe, Hastert is safe. But for anyone living downstate who doesn’t see how the Republicans can lose Congress, take a look at the Northeast. There are gale force winds there blowing right now in favor of the Dems.
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 12:49 pm
Rich,
Fred Crespo is a walkin’ machine. As a former GOP’er he nature is more voter friendly. And while MJM is worried about Kurt and Flider, he’s gonna get the 44th, as will Emil with Noland. My business in smack in the middle of the district. I hear it from folks almost everyday. Parke is in real trouble. In 62nd, it’s more of guess/gut, but by the way I’ve been asked for money and my PAC has been swamped, I’d say it’s going Dem
Comment by 23eyes Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 1:03 pm
polls are all we’ve got, so today they indicate a 10 seatpick up for the Dems, alot can change in 2 weeks
Comment by oldie opah Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 1:48 pm
One thing has been overlooked here. If as expected we see a complete Republican meltdown in House seats in the Northeast (in New England the GOP could be down to one House member, and New York and Pennsylvania look very bad for the Republicans as well), it may discourage Republicans to come out late to vote in the West, particularly in Arizona and Nevada (where it is not unreasonable to find huge precincts that haven’t kept up with the booming population growth there). Both of those states have Republican Senators seeking re-election, and both have an open House seat currently held by a Republican. It is possible that early word of Democratic victories in the East could dampen enough Republican votes in those two states (and perhaps a House race or two in California or Washington) to give the Democrats some unexpected triumphs. It would be the reverse of 1980, when Jimmy Carter’s early concession cost Democrats in races out west.
Comment by fedup dem Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:08 pm
==polls are all we’ve got, so today they indicate a 10 seatpick up for the Dems, alot can change in 2 weeks
Actually if you look at Pollster and weed out ties and recent conflicting, you get nearly 22 Dems in the lead in Republican held Districts. Some are in the marging of error, but the if one assumes the polls are relatively accurate, there are enough right now to take over the House. That said, the news cycle is feeding on itself with more bad news from Iraq, continuing the ethics stories with the Foley hearings, and the President’s silly never said stay the course claim that most Republican incumbents walked the plank with. Two weeks might slow the rate of decline–it hardly could keep up at this rate, but it’s hard to see what the mysterious magical event is going to be.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:28 pm
==Sorry, one more national point: check out www.majoritywatch.com for a better
I wouldn’t accept those without reservation–they match other polls in some cases, but not others. That said, there are a ton of warning signs in NH, NY, PA, and CT for Republicans.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:30 pm
Archie -
I have MO staying with Talent. He has a hell of a lot more money to spend and the race is even. MO will keep him. KC and StL is fading it’s support for McCaskill.
I had Ford taking TN until he destroyed his chances this weekend. Ford really screwed up BAD and he has become the story. Corker will win. I never thought TN would go liberal with Ford until I saw Mr. Personality. But now, he blew it.
I have Steele taking MD because black voters are not admit supporting black Republicans. Right now polls show a dead heat, so this means Steele has the edge. A switch.
The toss ups are NJ and MT. I strongly feel that Burns has overstayed his welcome, but MT could prove me as wrong as AK did in 2004. Both states are far more conservative than I realized. As to NJ, if the GOP stabilizes as it should over the next two weeks, or bounces back even a teeny bit, Kean could win it. Menendez is as rotted as Blagojevich, but NJ is as blue as Illinois.
So bottom line, I still have the GOP holding the Senate.
The House is tooclose. For the next two weeks we will be seeing the GOP edge back. The Foley scandal is in retreat, Iraq is back in front, Bush is going to come out and make some news, and the GOP has too much money.
Another problem has been that Pelosi is being spoken about. She is a liability in this election and needs to disappear for two weeks, not be trumpeted about. Her negatives are as bad as Hastert’s and she represents the looniest loons in the US in that gorgeous city, SF. In their partisan excitement, the MSM is talking up the “new Speaker of the House”, and no mainstream voter is ready for her.
Two more weeks! The Democrats have more surprises to dump on a willing MSM, the Republicans have a few bombs and a president that makes news…still anyone’s ball game.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:30 pm
KC-
Sure the winds in the NE are blowing against the Republicans, but how many Republicans are even left up there anyway? Even if all the seats in the NE go Democrat, that is not enough. And in CT, it looks like ALL the incumbants are returning, except one. I watched Lieberman and Lamont last night live. Lamont sucked really, really bad. I thought Lieberman was a whiney chump, but he looks fantastic against Lamont!
Sorry. I don’t see anything yet.
Finally guys, I did my drive throught. I visited Macoupin County. It is dependably Democratic, rural, and small town. Carlinville is as Democratic as a miner’s union meeting, which is what it really is.
Topinka signs. LOTS of them. Nothing like this in 2002. Blagojevich signs were rarely seen, except around the mines and around the college. Nothing like 2002. I counted big and small. 25-1 Topinka. Blagojevich better get his lackeys to work extra hard in Crook county! Also, Hare is not well representated. These people shouldn’t be big Zinga fans, but Hare isn’t seen. As to signage, Hare and Zinga are about even. Which isn’t great for Hare, but not terminal. I still don’t see the 17th switching, but do see a close race.
Blagojevich has nowhere to go but down over the next two weeks. He’s the issue, and it is his re-election. Topinka could win - really!
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:44 pm
I guess I’ll make my prediction here too. The Dems will sweep all the statewide offices. But, Blago will win by only 4 or 5 percent and be in the low 40’s. The Dems will retake the House by winning 22 seats and the Repubs will hold the Senate by winning Virginia and Tennessee even though they lose MO, RI, Penn, MT, and Ohio. Bean wins easily and Duckworth wins by 1%. Shimkus, who is my Rep, will unfortunately win. He is just too entrenched in the 19th, It will be closer than last time, probably 55-45, and Shimkus will not run in 2008.
Comment by Southern Illinois Democrat Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:51 pm
The Republicans will retain the House and Senate by the skin of their teeth. And it will come to haunt them. They will be unable to simply bully every piece of trash legislation up to El Presidente. Meanwhile, they will keep tanking Iraq, the Working Class, Civil Liberties, Family Values, and on and on. All the while trying to blame it on those pesky Democrats that are in the minority. Sorry fellow Dems. But, we are going to have to maintain a slow burn on the national front. We will have to wait until ‘08 for the rest of the holdouts to come to their senses.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 2:58 pm
Vanillaman,
The disservice of your post goes to Rich Whitney/IL Green Party for your failure to acknowledge him in your predictions of the Illinois Gubernatorial race. Last Zogby poll has Whitney at 11.3% and the Green Party candidate for Treasurer, Dan Rodriguez-Schlorff at 8%. The Green Party will factor into local, state, and national elections on November 7th. Outside of the Green Party candidates running in Illinois (there are 18 - see ilgp.org), Pat LaMarche running for governor of Maine (pat2006.com) and Michael Berg, Green candidate for Congress in Delaware (bergforcongress.us) are two candidates to watch.
In 2006 the Greens will make enough advancements to be a serious factor in 2008. In Illinois, the Green Party will become established which will nullify the ballot access barriers that have kept Illinois politics in the hands of corrupt candidates from both of the Perpetually Governing Parties.
The Illinois Green Party is gaining momentum and resonating with voters who want real solutions to the state’s perpetual problems as well as protest voters who are tired of Topinkavich scams and corruption.
Vote Green November 7th! Green & Growing!
Comment by Greener Futures Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 3:02 pm
I predict a 235-200 Democratic majority in the House and a 51-49 Republican majority in the Senate (or maybe 50-50 depending on Tennessee). I am assuming Allen wins in Virginia and the Democrats take the other close Senate races (MT, MO, OH, RI, as well as PA).
The national mood is toxic to the east of Illinois — the Democrats may pick up the 15 seats for a majority just in Indiana (Hostettler, Sodrel, Chocola), Ohio (Ney’s old seat, Chabot, Pryce, maybe even Schmidt), Pennsylvania (Weldon, Sherwood, Gerlach, possibly Fitzpatrick and Hart) and New York, where the statewide races are so lopsided that seven seats may flip there. (I’m surprised the House races in New York aren’t getting more attention because the most dramatic results in the nation will likely come from there.)
Add in significant Democratic leads in GOP-vacated seats in Arizona, Texas, Florida, Colorado and Wisconsin, and 20 seats are likely to flip before you even discuss New England, Kentucky (Taft and Fletcher are much more widely loathed in their states than Rod is in Illinois), Illinois or any other contested seat. Based on individual district polling, a net change of 33 seats is not a wild guess at this point.
The national mood may not mean much in Illinois because Judy and the state party have problems that would have made winning difficult in 2004. Maybe the Republicans would win the Treasurer race then, but otherwise not much difference. Roskam would win the 6th if this was 2004 and he may well win it anyway; Shimkus’s troubles may be enough to knock him out but that would be an upset and Seals may take Kirk out if the national wave is big enough. Lack of enthusiasm for Rod may depress Democratic turnout (and the one race where this would be interesting is if this hurts Stroger), but not enough to offset lack of enthusiasm for Judy. Illinois may be more boring than any of the states surrounding it on Nov. 7.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 3:12 pm
I believe that the Republicans are heading for disaster, and think that could be the best thing for them. Not because the democrats will screw up in the next two years, but because the national GOP has lost its sense of direction and its values. Maybe two years as the minority will bring the back to the fiscally responsible, small government party that got them power in 1994. What we see now is a big spending, big government, and big deficit GOP. If they manage to keep the house and senate, great, but they better be able to deliver some sort of Social Security reform, make the tax cuts permanent, and cut tertiary spending as much as possible. If not, they’ll be where they are now in 2008. And that is not a good place to be. 2008 could be a realigning election that solidifies a Republican or Democratic majority for years to come.
Comment by Lovie's Leather Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 3:21 pm
with the “60%” rule in order to cut off debate and in effect to pass any legislation, it may not matter much who wins the US Senate — except for the matter of Congressional hearings of the Executive Branch. President and Commander in Chief G.W. Bush, not Frist or Hastert, is the big loser if either chamber goes Democratic.
Comment by capitol view Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 3:40 pm
I said this on another post earlier. Yes, I think the GOP is nationally doomed and that is impacting most races here. Topinka is ultimately going to lose because of the national Republicans, not because of her own problems. In the GA, I predict that the HDEMS will add one seat by losing one downstate and picking two up and the SDEMS will add two.
Comment by Goodbye Napoleon Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 4:22 pm
Lovie says the Republicans are headed for disaster.
Personally, I love it when the more socially conservative crowd gets a shot at power, because it tells them that they had their chance, but the people didn’t buy it, and then the party can remake itself. If they crash and burn, they can regroup and run Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Him against Hillary? Oh yeah. That’ll be fun to watch.
Comment by Angie Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 4:35 pm
===I have MO staying with Talent. He has a hell of a lot more money to spend and the race is even. MO will keep him. KC and StL is fading it’s support for McCaskill.
The race hasn’t been even for a few weeks. It’s still in the margin of error, since October 1st only Zogby had him up other than a one point lead in a Rasmussen. That said, I don’t have a ton of confidence in Tennessee and I think that’s the weakest prediction, though that would be the case either way.
This follows the same pattern in Missouri since 2000 with close elections where when the independents break late, they tend towards one candidate
Beyond that Talent is weaker outstate than any other Republican and there like 2002 with Carnahan, he’s got an unpopular Governor weighing him down.
Connecticut shows all three incumbents under 50 and essentially tied or trailing with only Simmons up 2. Take a 2-1 break for the challenger and that’s a tie. There was some divergence in September on the polling, but it seems to be following the same national trend with independents breaking 2 to 1 towards Democrats. Lieberman does look to be winning and perhaps handily.
Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 4:59 pm
Hey Bubs, shouldn’t you be out spreading phony dirt on Jack Ryan? Or how about just getting rejected by voters at the polls?
Comment by Real Clear Tuesday, Oct 24, 06 @ 11:18 pm
Nationwide, Democrats net 5 Governorships, 2 U.S. Senate seats, and right around 13 U.S. House seats.
If Republicans manage to keep House and Senate, it will be seen as a massive victory for the GOP.
Not much of what will happen around the counry will effect Illinois.
Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, Oct 25, 06 @ 12:20 am