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I was out with some Democrats last night who were positively beaming about Melissa Bean’s chances today against Congressman Phil Crane. Their polling data is old, however. The Republicans have been saying all week that their more recent polling has Bean dropping like a stone. Bean’s negatives are higher than her positives, they claim, Republicans are “coming home” finally, and the hits against Bean for not living in the district and for opposing the Bush tax cuts are working.
If Rod McCulloch’s new poll is correct, then we have some proof that Bean is indeed in big trouble. If this poll is accurate and Crane has 52.8 percent just before the election, then he’s pretty much unbeatable. The only thing that could save Bean would be a tremendous, even historic, turnout.
…Congressman Crane leads Ms. Bean 52.8%-44.5% district-wide, the poll said.“It appears that Republican voters are starting to come home to Phil Crane,” McCulloch said. In the new poll, voters who identified themselves as Republicans chose the incumbent by a margin of 80.5% to 18.9%. An earlier Illinois Poll, conducted in August showed Congressman Crane’s Republican support at 71.0%. McCulloch also noted that the Wauconda Congressman is being helped by a surge for Republican President George W. Bush in the district. President Bush leads Democratic Senator John Kerry in the district 57-37%. The August poll showed a much tighter Presidential race in the district (49-41).
In this election, the poll shows that Congressman Crane could do better in McHenry than in the other parts of the district. According to the poll, he leads in McHenry 55.7%-41.4%. The portion of the poll done in Lake County, which had long been a Crane stronghold, showed him leading 54.6%-44.0%. Democrat Bean did the best in the Cook County portion of the district, tying the Congressman 47.4-47.4%. Melissa Bean lives in Cook County, just outside of the 8th District.
While there is a slight gender gap in the district, the poll shows that Congressman Crane leads among both male (54.8%-41.5%) and female (50.9%-47.2%) voters. He also leads among every age group except the youngest (18-30 years old). Among that age group, Melissa Bean holds a substantial lead (58.9%-35.7%). Congressman Crane, however, holds a strong lead among senior citizens (57.1%-42.9%), and those 46-60 years of age (56.5%-41.1%).
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 2, 04 @ 8:41 am
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