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Simon poll: Rauner underwater everywhere

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Illinois
Polls

* According to this poll, the governor’s disapproval rating is higher than his approval rating in every region of the state…

Illinois voters have become more polarized about the performance of Gov. Bruce Rauner in the past year, according to the latest poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University.

There are 50 percent who disapprove of the job the Republican chief executive is doing while 41 percent approve. The rest were undecided.

That is a marked change of opinion in a year. After only a few months in office in 2015, there were 37 percent who approved and 31 percent who disapproved while 32 percent still didn’t know.

In other words, both his approval rating and his disapproval ratings have increased because fewer people have no opinion.

The latest poll of 1,000 registered voters was taken Feb. 15-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Rauner’s worst ratings come from Chicago, where 34 percent approve and 58 percent disapprove. Opinion is more evenly divided in the suburbs, where 43 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove. Downstate, the numbers are similar: 43 percent approve and 49 percent disapprove.

“Public opinion in Illinois is deeply divided over the Governor’s job performance and deeply divided on a variety of issues that are challenging the state and state government to meet the needs and expectations of the public,” observed John S. Jackson, a visiting professor at the Institute and one of the designers of the poll.
The poll also found:

* Illinois voters - an overwhelming 84 percent - say the state is on the “wrong track.” Only 9 percent say things are headed in the right direction.

* Illinois voters felt only slightly better about the direction of the country: 63 percent said the nation was going in the wrong direction and 29 percent chose “right direction.”

* Voters are much more positive about their city or local area. Half (50 percent) said things were moving in the right direction and only 42 percent chose wrong direction for their local city or area.

* Asked about the overall quality of life in their local area, 51 percent rated their quality of life as “excellent” or “good.” Only 16 percent rated it as “not so good” or “poor” and 32 percent chose “average.”

Since last July, Illinois has been caught in a budget stalemate between the governor and the Democratic majority controlling the General Assembly. There are few signs of the impasse breaking soon.

The poll found that about a third, 32 percent, said they or “someone in [their] immediate family has been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate,” while 62 percent of voters didn’t feel they had been affected.

“One reason this stalemate goes on is many simply don’t feel it is effecting their lives,” said David Yepsen, director of the Institute. “Those people aren’t likely to be pressuring policy-makers to do something to break the logjam.”

“Many programs that are funded are being paid for with loans or one-time money and that can’t go on forever,” Yepsen said.

Those who said they or their families had been directly affected were asked in what specific way they had been impacted:

* 27 percent said they had lost a job or their job had been threatened by the budget impasse.

* 27 percent said they had been impacted by cuts in social services.

* Another 15 percent said they had been affected by cuts to higher education or cuts to the MAP grant program for low income students.

* 10 percent said they had been hit by child care costs or loss of services and another 10 percent said the local economy had been negatively impacted by Illinois’ budget problems.

* And we appear to be at a record low “right direction” for the state…

Oof.

* One more. Of the 32 percent who said that they or a member of their immediate family had been affected by the stalemate, here are their self-supplied answers for how…

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:22 am

Comments

Hang in there, Bruce.

Comment by Frenchie Mendoza Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:24 am
I wish they had the legislative district breakouts. Wow, those numbers are terrible, however, the 38% in the City might not be “bad” in that vacuum.

The polarizing of Bruce Rauner is starting to take serious root, and sides are being clearly defined. Only 9% have “no opinion”, wow. Can Rauner change minds back?

The goal now for Rauner has to be, as Rauner tries to move his numbers in these races with more money, even with “Fire Madigan”, Rauner needs wins, legislative and political wins, and some results too to move the polarizing numbers.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:29 am
This is more about winning than governing.

Comment by Stones Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:30 am
I’m sure Rauner will see this as winning since his approval number is up from last year.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:30 am
Bottom line, most responders believe Rauner owns this.

Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:31 am
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time — but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:31 am
At what point does Rauner’s job rating surpass the worst Governor the state has ever seen or has he eclipsed that mark and is now going for the national record?

Comment by Mouthy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:32 am
62% have not been affected, so that is winning. Rauner is right for now.

I too would like a break down by districts, especially all those college areas with the Republican legislators.

Just keep campaign’ Bruce, that’s the ticket.

Comment by Dr X Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:33 am
This is what happens when you take a bad situation and turn it into an unprecedented catastrophe.

Comment by AC Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:34 am
This is the general leading you into battle, GA Republicans. This is who you are voting against your districts to stand lock-step with. This is who you are choosing to follow despite knowing that doing so is betraying your consciences, your sense of duty, your love of this state.

A one-term governor who will be gone in 2 and a half years but be hung around Republicans necks for a whole lot longer.

Maybe you’ll get lucky and most college students won’t have noticed you voting to set their diplomas on fire. But I doubt the ones who did notice will be voting Republican in quite a few elextion cycles to come.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:34 am
Rauner may have to start using his slush fund to bolster his approval ratings.

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:35 am
The long time Iowa pundit says 32% is not a lot affected? That is a lot and they will be motivated to vote.

Comment by illinois manufacturer Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:35 am
Bruce Rauner to his allies: “Don’t worry. When we finally succeed in gutting labor unions, lowering wages, and raising everyone’s taxes, then my approval rating will go up!”

Comment by Old Shepherd Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:35 am
27% effected by social services and 27% effected by job loss. Oooweee there are the numbers that bite. I hope Winters is sweating profusely.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:36 am
The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in November 2018.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:42 am
===The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in November 2018.===

lol, tell that to McCann, or Benton, or Dunkin, or…

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:43 am
27% of those surveyed have lost their job due to the budget impasse? Nobody finds that proposition to be even a little bit suspect?

Comment by Jack Kemp Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:48 am
https://capitolfax.com/2012/09/14/poll-quinn-approval-rating-edges-up-a-notch/

Pat Quinn’s numbers were very similar from 2012. I think this poll should be taken with a grain of salt before people start cheering for his demise. And unlike Quinn, Rauner has virtually an unlimited treasure chest.

Comment by Almost the Weekend Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:51 am
In his March 2 SJR commentary, David Vaught plausibly argues that Rauner has failed to make
“efficiencies or tough cuts.”

The pollsters for the above poll didn’t call me, but had they done so, I would have given Rauner a negative rating, for that reason.

The solution to the state’s fiscal “crisis” should not simply be the middle class taxpayer ATM, although Rauner’s actions, collectively, appear to be pointing us in that direction. The easy button, with the added advantage of pandering to wealthy contributors.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:51 am
How about (another) massive anonymous robocalling campaign blasting all of the Governor’s opponents?

That’s bound to bring the Governor’s numbers up big time!

/s

Comment by Omega Man Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:52 am
My guess is that somewhere the pollster whose been telling the Gov that he’s “winning” is being taken out to the woodshed…

Comment by Boone's is Back Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:52 am
Oh - Jack Kemp -

Reading is Fundamental.

Did ya forget “threatened”?

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:52 am
Jack Kemp, 27 percent of all respondents having their jobs tied so closely to the budget impasse does seem suspect. Especially considering the number of people in Illinois who are retired and unemployed should constitute at least one third of respondents.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:58 am
I guess when you are as rich as Bruce Rauner, you can remodel one of your houses with fire, not worry about how big it gets, and stay in one of the other houses while the torched ones get rebuilt to your liking.

That is how Rauner does it. Everyone else however, cannot survive arson as a strategy. We only have one home. We don’t have a ranch in Montana, banks on a Caribbean island, or a place in Manhattan. For us, we have to live through any chaos. While Rauner sees a shiny future, everyone else sees major losses and harm.

Rauner should be a concern for anyone who thinks electing an outsider will make governments better. He has repeatedly proven that buying a governorship, doesn’t make you a governor.

Any GOP legislator thinking Rauner can help them get more political success and power here, needs to see these polls, hear the cries of their constituents, and back away from this man before the fire gets them too.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 9:58 am
With only 15% reporting having been affected by lack of funding for MAP yesterday’s failed override vote is easy to understand. I wonder what percentage of people would report being affected by a lack of funding for preK-12 if that comes to pass? My guess is between 80%-90%. Wensicia is right, responders believe Rauner owns this and they will also believe he will own a primary/secondary school stoppage. Despite Cullerton’s mistake, this it the non-Raunerite’s strongest bargaining chip.

Comment by Cubs in '16 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:00 am
JKemp - to be honest, I wondered about that as well. My guess is that the “threatened” part was the sell - and who knows how it was asked.

Polling is always interesting. 32% are personally or have family impacted. While a high number, is the enough to force movement?

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:01 am
Health care providers, that have been stiffed with insurance payments, should be on the list..

Comment by Mouthy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:01 am
Jack Kemp, it’s 27% who have had an immediate family effected by job/loss. Effected is the fudge word. There could have been layoffs at the plant which would “effect” the respondent or their family, like longer hours, etc. It’s not that 27% have lost their jobs. Although, I sure did see a lot of elderly folks working at McDonalds yesterday. Things are getting bad. This just backs it up.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:04 am
* 27 percent said they had lost a job or their job had been threatened by the budget impasse.
* 27 percent said they had been impacted by cuts in social services.

Thos are huge numbers, and i suspect there is some overlap.

RAUNER–you want to improve the economy almost instantly? Do your job, get a budget passed. (These sentences were posted for general amusement, in an attempt to lower my blood pressure)

Radogno, durkin? Aside from the suffering these numbers represent, are these the trends you think will help you build the party, and pick up seats? You are merely expendable pieces on rauners chess board. Wake up.

Comment by Langhorne Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:06 am
Jack Kemp - let’s take EIU, for instance. Not only are there hundreds of faculty, staff, and admin, but many businesses rely on the income derived from students. The students go, the money goes, the businesses close. So right there in Charleston you’ve a couple thousand people worrying about their jobs.

Comment by RIJ Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:07 am
I am having a baby and NEED to move — the crib will be in a closet — but both of our jobs are dependent on (wildly different) state contracts, so mine might be laying off and his has frozen COL increases and talking involuntary transfers to other parts of the state. We’ve been waiting since July for SOMETHING to settle out so we can move to a more permanent home, but we don’t feel like we can spend money buying, or even moving somewhere else to rent, until we know that our jobs are secure and where they will be located! But the situation is getting more and more urgent because babies do not understand impasses and cannot be put on hold once they’re cooking.

And the longer this goes on, the more we feel like we should hang on to the money for our down payment anyway in case one or both of us loses our job due to the budget impasse, and we have to use our down payment money to ensure we have health insurance when the baby comes.

I know it’s a minor problem in the grand scheme of things, since we’re not going to be homeless. But the uncertainty with the state budget situation makes it so impossible for us to move forward with our lives, and we’re having horrible anxiety about the future at a time that should be joyful.

We’re both seeking other employment that isn’t so dependent on the state. (But who wants to hire a lady six months pregnant?) We have so many friends in similar situations, young people who are just frozen in place because their employers are waiting out the state’s impasse and nobody’s hiring.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:07 am
And in Coles County you have the representatives voting against their district’s best interests.

I have lost pretty much all of the respect I ever had for our local representatives. I’m pretty positive it will not ever return.

They have soiled themselves in the name of serving a one-term governor who will ruin their party’s name for a generation.

Comment by Chucktownian Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:15 am
Raunerbots, please pay attention. The survey said: “Those who said they or their families had been directly affected were asked in what specific way they had been impacted:”

Comment by Norseman Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:19 am
Two things stand out. First, the wrong direction numbers. Worse than the end of the Blagojevich administration when his approval was at 7% (which I believe was before the arrest), and worse than any time during the recession.

Second, the Governor’s approval rating is likely a bit soft on the basis that a number of our fellow residents think that the current impasse is because the Governor is standing up against raising taxes. But the reality is that the Governor has said he will be willing to sign a massive tax increase, but only after the GA puts term limits on Roberta Lynch or something.

Where does his approval rating go if that were to ever come to pass?

Comment by Juice Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:21 am
Ugh. Let’s try this again. Not sure why my posts aren’t showing up.

==27 percent of all respondents having their jobs tied so closely to the budget impasse does seem suspect==

You are thinking too narrowly. Think schools, the medical community, local governments, social service agencies. The list is long. Those jobs are most definitely being impacted.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:23 am
test

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:23 am
We’d prefer the phrase ‘deep yogurt’ be used. CK

Comment by Superstars Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:23 am
==27 percent of all respondents having their jobs tied so closely to the budget impasse does seem suspect==

Why is it hard to believe?

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:24 am
So since last Spring Rauner’s approval rating has gone up 4% but his disapproval rating has gone up 19%. Despite the fact that Rauner is making a supreme effort to attack Madigan, both in the press and through campaign ads, as being the problem, his negatives have gotten much worse. The pressure will continue to build as things continue to worsen.
At what point will Rauner realize that making ultimatums to Madigan doesn’t work and instead of reforming the state he is slowly destroying it. His inner circle needs to explain to him that he can achieve a few meaningful reforms this year and that taking a few reform ideas off the table isn’t a sign of defeat. No Governor gets nearly everything they desire, especially when their party is the minority in the Legislature. Issuing ultimatums and pressuring Democrats into becoming Republicans won’t work and I hope this administration realizes that before they inflict such harm that will take many years to recover from.

Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:25 am
- Almost the weekend -

You do know Quinn lost, right?

Comment by QandA Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:26 am
Old Shepherd hit the nail on the head.

How do you think those 41% who approve of the governor now are going to feel when he signs a tax increase?

Does anyone think he will have 43% approval in the suburbs when he raises the income back to 5 percent?

Comment by Juvenal Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:27 am
Illinois Democratic Party - all I ask is that you nominate a competent adult in the next Governor’s race.

Comment by Bluegrass Boy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:29 am
There is nothing in the Poll that changes my mind, not one bit, that Bruce Rauner is the odds-on favorite to win re-election.

Rauner spent, as an unknown over $60+ million, $23+ million coming from his own “kick”.

Rauner, to prove a point, will go $80, $90 million, easy.

Also, can’t beat somebody with nobody.

It’s delusional to think Rauner can’t or won’t win in 2018. If anything, it’s delusuonal to think anyone can beat him.

Sorry.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:32 am
At some point, Republican legislators are going to have to come to grips with the fact that Rauner is a 1 term Governor.

Comment by Century Club Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:44 am
Century - see Willy’s comment before yours. You may be right. I don’t know. It’s only early March 2016. The primary for governor isn’t for another TWO YEARS, which is a lifetime in politics. Assuming that and speaking with the hubris that Rauner being a one-term Governor “is a done deal” and that the Republicans will have “face reality” is a good way to faceplant instead of striding forward.

The primary results in less than two weeks and the general results in 8 months will be a good primer for what to expect in 2018. And this is the federal interest/side of me coming out, but in 2018 there will be no U.S. Senate race (unless there’s a death or a resignation) and a first-term President will have to deal with the normal mid-term election dip. Coupled with other statewide races and Rauner’s cash, Rauner being reelected isn’t some fringe possibility.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:50 am
===At some point, Republican legislators are going to have to come to grips with the fact that Rauner is a 1 term Governor.===

Nope. Not at all…

“At some point, Republican legislators are going to have to come to grips with the fact that Rauner is likely to be a two-term Governor and they May not be in the General Assembly to see it.”

This.

All day this.

Rauner doesn’t care about GOP carnage, especially if he can muster more Raunerites, no matter their former party affiliations.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:51 am
OW- Then I will live in the land of the deluded. If this destruction continues and escalates. If no budget is EVER submitted in whole by Rauner during his first term. If nothing is brought back under a semblance of control for the social service sector, which includes honoring contracts and payments. If he continues to “win” by the Republicans standing aside. And, after all of this, he’s reelected simply because he can BUY the office. Then the dawn of the age of Trump has surely taken hold of this country.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 10:53 am
- Anon221 -

With respect,

Can’t beat someone with no one…

Also, Rauner will continue his divisive message, statewide, and equal blame will be hung on the Democratic nominee.

Right now, today, he’s going to be really difficult to beat, given his assets and levers, politically.

Sorry.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:00 am
OW, wasn’t there a rumor about Sen. Durbin running, or did I just make that up?

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:03 am
“Someone” has time. Hopefully “Someone” will run, and all of this divisiveness Rauner enjoys will be worth more than the millions he hoards and threatens with. And, no, I don’t have any ideas on who “Someone” might even be, but the office of Governor of Illinois shouldn’t turn into a “no choice at all choice” that we get too often at the local level for office holders. Yes, he has the money, but it’s doing very little to “Grow Illinois” at this point. And, he seems immensely satisfied with that.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:07 am
Great plan Rauner has to take over as the majority party.

Comment by Liberty Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:08 am
- Honeybear -

Durbin is NOT a name I hear.

- Anon221 -

Respectfully, only 9% right now have “no opinion”. Rauner only needs to get to 50%+ 1. Not seeing “Someone” willing to go $70-90 million and take the personal attacks at possibly $10 million a month for a state failing.

That doesn’t sound like a race many want to be in.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:11 am
He may be a one-term governor, it’s early to say, unlikely there will be much focus on 2018 until the presidential is done.

But there are perils for the Democrats as well. Do they want their candidate to take office and immediately have to put through a massive tax hike, which will be felt most heavily by the middle class. Who knows what the country’s economy will look like in 2 years. Illinois is hardly driving the bus in that area. Think gas prices, inflation, deflation, automation.
Might be better to give up a few things and get the guv to sign a modest tax hike now. As 2018 race gets closer, harder to be flexible on either side.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:15 am
Honeybear - you’re correct. Durbin’s name was bandied about. His staff shot it down, although I think he’d be a worthy opponent. The problem is his age, a potential Hillary or Bernie election (and possible Cabinet appointment) and whether he’d want to miss that many votes to be back in Illinois all the time and run for office. He’d also still be in leadership as whip, although that was disputed as well.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:21 am
OW- I agree and am not arguing the point. It is more a lamentation on our society’s priorities and worry for the future if we continue to count dollars as the only real factor in politics. If dollars only count, then we will continue to get what we cannot afford. Rauner first term should be a wake-up call to the nation. And, I hope, more and more focus will be placed on him and his tactics as the Presidential race heats up. The March 11 dinner should result in some good news fodder, especially if Trump the front-runner gets to speak.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:21 am
So the poll found people believe Illinois is dumpster fire. No kidding. It also found just 4 in 10 Illinoisans view the governor favorably. Fine. Did the poll not ask what the respondents thought of legislative leaders in Springfield? Or who the respondents believe is more to blame for the mess? The answer to that question, combined with the results of the question pertaining to the direction of their community/city will have much more to do with the outcome of Rauner’s political future than questions about whether they think he’s doing a good job or even if Illinois is in good shape. Everything is relative. Most people thought Illinois was in bad shape before Rauner took office. So, if you think running a campaign that says “Everything bad in Illinois is Rauner’s fault!” will work, go ahead, try. And by all means, rally around Michael J. Madigan. I’ll bet that’ll play really well in the suburbs and downstate. As Willy said, you can’t beat someone with no one.

Comment by JB13 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:23 am
- Anon221 -

It’s all good.

It’s 100 years away, 2018, but looking show Rauner won, seeing how the tactics are now, the monies, it’s tough to call this, but not tough to see a tough road for a “Someone”

- Team Sleep -

Yep, once Durbin’s Crew nixed it, it’s mit real floating anymore.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:26 am
OW - points well taken, especially about the $$ and the divisive message.

Calling an election 2.5 years ahead of time is foolish, but I have frankly given up hope that the stalemate will end in any significant way before 2018. So the situation I see is very angry Dem voters who will turn out and moderate voters who feel Rauner went off the deep end after they voted for responsible government. I don’t know if the Republican base feels angry and motivated like the Dems or disillusioned that Rauner couldn’t deliver.

Comment by Century Club Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:37 am
“The only poll that matters is the one that takes place in November 2018.”

The voters have a chance to make their voices heard in the March 15 Illinois Primary and then again in the November 2016 election of State Representatives and State Senators.

Comment by Enviro Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:38 am
Willy - ever since Nick Saban said “I’m not going to be the next coach at Alabama” - or something to that effect - I’ve taken what most public officials/persons said with a grain of salt.

Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:39 am
- Century Club -

I can’t think of anyone who can beat him, given the same parameters that exist as his winking premise now, and will be in 2.5 years.

Given that, I feel comfortable with my thoughts. Today. Absolutely.

It’s never foolish to see, with open eyes the huge hurdles one will face. It’s foolish to wish they weren’t there.

With respect.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:42 am
- Team Sleep -

The next time I’m in Tuscaloosa, I’ll tell him you said that.

Roll Tide!

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:43 am
I’ve seen how hard being the POTUS can be on someone physically. I would think that the strain of constantly fighting the legislature would be at least as stressful. Why would Rauner put himself through that when he would likely be more effective behind the scenes. Is it just ego?

Comment by CharlieKratos Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:49 am
== Why would Rauner put himself through that when he would likely be more effective behind the scenes. Is it just ego? ==

No. Rauner, in his business career, has always just bought, ordered breakups, sold off the pieces, and walked away a winner. It’s the only way he knows …

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 11:57 am
CharlieKratos- I think Rauner thoroughly enjoys his retirement “hobby”. There are no consequences to him, and money is not an issue. Legacy and reputation appear to have no effect on him. He’s grinnin’ all the way.

Comment by Anon221 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 12:05 pm
OW takes Rauners numbers and remove the over 20% support from cook county and public employee support and he would gave lost to Quinn, who was unpopular. Put Durbin in against Rauner and IMHO Durbin wins…..

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 12:32 pm
- Ghost -

It’s been made very clear, Durbin isn’t running.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 12:35 pm
==27 percent of all respondents having their jobs tied so closely to the budget impasse does seem suspect==

They *or a member of their immediate family*. So you don’t need anything like 27% to actually have their own jobs personally affected.

Comment by TooManyJens Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 1:08 pm
Would this guy be a potential candidate?

http://frerichsforillinois.com/

Comment by Dr X Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 1:19 pm
I’d cut off my right arm to see Emily Miller run. Someone just posted Emily Miller for Governor on another post. Wow, would I get behind her.

Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 1:25 pm
My math might be off a little bit, but the survey says 27% of the 32% who felt an impact from the budget stalemate felt that impact was threat or or loss of job would equal 8.7% of ALL respondents.

Comment by G'Kar Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 1:35 pm
===At what point does Rauner’s job rating surpass the worst Governor the state has ever seen

Quinn was down to at least 31% approval at one point. Rauner probably has a base that’s less likely to abandon him at around 36% aka Alan Keyes voters

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 2:38 pm
====Also, Rauner will continue his divisive message, statewide, and equal blame will be hung on the Democratic nominee.

===Right now, today, he’s going to be really difficult to beat, given his assets and levers, politically.

I disagree. He’s wearing the jacket for the budget and money isn’t what it used to be. He can try and paint whomever runs against him as awful, but ultimately he’s got a state falling down. Now, if he grows up, passes a budget and gets the state government back to work, I think he can win. He doesn’t appear to be ready to do so and I don’t see any end in sight. That said, if he compromises, the right wing base abandons him so that’s a tough spot to be in.

He can’t fix the chaos he created with campaign money. He has a natural disadvantage with Illinois’ demographics. He’s not a likable guy on television.

I think he wants to be a one termer. He won’t admit that, but I think this was a hobby to ‘fix’ the State of Illinois, take the heat for the changes, and then leave. The only problem, he’s can’t pass most of his changes and if he tries to hold on to the Turnaround Agenda he makes himself toxic for the next election.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 2:43 pm
Wait, Quinn had 25% approval in at least one poll–though I still think I remember a 22%.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 2:48 pm
Amazing that his approval rate is as string as it is. I can only attribute that so many don’t trust Madigan and the Democrats either.

Comment by Federalisr Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 3:14 pm
It’s interesting to hear so many think Rauner would win a second term. Of course when you have no idea who would run against him it’s hard to say what the odds would be. I’m of the belief that so long as the democratic candidate isn’t someone with a ton of baggage they’d beat him by default. IMHO he appears headed for the same fate as Quinn. People will vote in a guy who “Isn’t Rauner”.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 3:29 pm
This is why Rauner says he is Winning. He said a long time ago that he can use this to “drive a wedge”. He will keep this up until one of two things happen. First, the Dems cave, not going to happen. Two, the GOP looses seats and the rank and file start running for their lives. Rauner is already planning for this possibility by having people state there may be loses before wins. If enough GOP buy into this, it won’t happen for another year or two. The bad thing, the innocent people being caught in the middle.

Comment by My two cents worth Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 3:35 pm
- ArchPundit -

With respect,

You make total sense, but see Blogojevich, Rod as to how to win re-election.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:05 pm
I think Rauner planned on being a one term governor. You don’t upset the applecart if you want to be popular. You spend and spend and make people happy.

Comment by Peoria Guy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:09 pm
—You make total sense, but see Blogojevich, Rod as to how to win re-election.

LOL–I get your point, but I think that primarily worked because the demographics were with Blagojevich. Rauner has to take a Democrat so far beyond what Blagojevich did to Judy, and I’m not sure even his money can do that.

I fully admit I may be Pollyanish on this, but….

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:31 pm
- ArchPundit -

It’s all good, nothing like talking it out, I know it’s how I learn.

It’s a fun parlor game looking into the future…

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 5:00 pm