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Zorn: Franks, Drury disprove Dunkin claims

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Dunkin has been preening that Madigan is after him because he has a mind of his own… That contention would be more persuasive if Madigan were trying to oust other Democratic reps with minds of their own, such as Jack Franks, 63rd, of Marengo, and Scott Drury, 58th, of Highwood, both of whom have also cast key votes against Madigan during the standoff with Rauner. He’s not. They’re unopposed in the primary.

Madigan is after Dunkin because Dunkin is an unapologetic defector. In an apparent effort to become a power broker, he became a reliable Republican vote in a district that went 4 to 1 for the Democrats in the 2014 election. […]

Madigan tries hard to keep his caucus in line (as does Rauner, whose allies are also spending big to try to defeat a downstate incumbent Republican lawmaker who dared to cast union-friendly votes), but it’s a myth that Madigan’s unique personality and power is all that keeps his members in line.

If Dunkin wins, rank-and-file Democrats will still oppose Rauner’s pro-business, anti-labor agenda, and the stalemate will go on.

Zorn also thinks that Dunkin might win. I don’t disagree. It’s really difficult to oust an incumbent in a primary, particularly one who is as well-funded as Dunkin is.

…Adding… An informed dissent in comments…

Both Drury and Franks are in Purple Districts. Zorn’s analysis is bunk.

Knocking out Franks in a primary would likely lead to a lost seat. So, that’s true. Drury? Maybe not, but I can most definitely see a backlash in that north suburban district against Madigan’s hand-picked candidate in the general.

So, I’ve altered the lead-in to remove my agreement. Many thanks to the commenter.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:28 pm

Comments

This is an example of the micro backfiring.

Dunkin will likely win because of his district, not in spite of it.

Same reason Benton and the monies he has will sink McCann in the micro.

To Zorn,

I read it, not much to disagree with in it.

But this…

===Madigan tries hard to keep his caucus in line (as does Rauner, whose allies are also spending big to try to defeat a downstate incumbent Republican lawmaker who dared to cast union-friendly votes), but it’s a myth that Madigan’s unique personality and power is all that keeps his members in line.===

Ball game.

Well said, Mr. Zorn, great work.

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:33 pm
“Ken Dunkin is no rebel. He’s just another political marionette who’s handed his strings to a new puppet master.”

That’s it, exactly.

Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:35 pm
Both Drury and Franks are in Purple Districts. Zorn’s analysis is bunk.

Comment by old pol Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:37 pm
To the Update,

Point taken, and I’d say Franks plays the “purple” candidate for the purple district.

Drury is Drury, a persona and personality unique to his district which buffers that stigma of Madigan with his self-righteousness and smugness being an asset to that, not a liability it could be in other districts.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:49 pm
=== Zorn’s analysis is bunk.===

It is reliably bunk.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 4:52 pm
RD 63 is undeniably red, make no mistake. Without Jack, the seat will flip without question.

Comment by 300 Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 5:02 pm
I think the north half of Dunkin’s district hurts him significantly, and his far south side portion is NOT home territory for him.

Comment by Wow Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 5:39 pm
Dunkin is outspending Stratton nearly 2-1.

If Madigan is really going all out against him, that’s rather revealing.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 6:10 pm
The only vote that Franks casts that matters to the Speaker is when he votes for the speaker. That’s one more vote for a Madigan issue than Madigan would get from anybody else in that district.

Drury is more interesting because, like Dunkin, he’s an odd person and unreliable on votes. The “plantation” argument carries a bit more weight when it comes to Drury, since it is possible that a real Democrat could be elected and further, Drury is odd enough that he can’t be relied upon.

Comment by Gooner Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 6:30 pm
OW, the RAUN Man needs to be weary of the trade winds blowing down in the 58th senate. I may have to move back down to cast a vote.

Comment by Blue dog dem Thursday, Mar 3, 16 @ 8:52 pm