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Watching for a surge

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Illinois

* I had a chat with Sangamon County Clerk Don Gray yesterday about early voting. I was wondering if he’d seen any hard evidence of Democrats taking Republican ballots. As we’ve discussed before, Sen. Sam McCann’s supporters are hoping to convince Democrats to help pull him through a tough GOP primary battle against a Rauner-backed (and now openly Rauner-funded) candidate.

Clerk Gray said he has seen some evidence. For instance, his office has looked at early voting in the downtown office by Democrats in 2014 and found that of 434 Democrats who took their party’s ballot that year, 39 have pulled GOP ballots so far this year.

That ain’t many actual votes, of course, but it’s still 9 percent.

Could those just be Trump voters and not necessarily Sam McCann voters? Nobody really knows.

* But something else is going on. As of yesterday afternoon, 1,888 Republican ballots had been pulled, compared to 1,849 two years ago and 1,511 in the last presidential primary four years ago.

And, so far, 1,244 Democratic early ballots have been requested, compared to 967 two years ago and 735 four years ago.

* OK, now let’s look at percent of total Dem/GOP early voting ballots cast for 2012-16…

2012 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 67
2012 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 33

2014 - Republican percent of total early votes cast: 66
2014 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast: 34

2016 - Republican percent of total early votes cast, to date: 60
2016 - Democratic percent of total early votes cast, to date: 40

The Democrats’ percent of total has clearly spiked. On its face, that could very well argue against any surge for McCann.

Then again, we really don’t know and early voting isn’t finished yet.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:04 am

Comments

We have legit Presidential primaries in both parties. Four years ago, Obama didn’t have a challenger and Romney only had to brush aside Santorum (whose candidacy really wasn’t much of a “challenge”). This time it’s much different. I think Bernie can pull off an Illinois “upset” - especially after what happened in Illinois - and there are enough GOP officials supporting Rubio and Kasich that I think Trump could be in real trouble.

The thing to remember is that there aren’t many hardcore Dems outside of Sangamon County - at least not in terms of primary numbers. Sure, there are countywide Dem officials in the 50th, but county-level politics are much different than state-level and federal-level politics. And unlike 2012, McCann’s challenger has actually worked outside of Sangamon County. Oh - and he has cash and staff, too.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:12 am
I sure hope the less experienced voters realize that McCann is not on a democratic ballot.

Comment by cdog Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:13 am
This type of “trick”, to pull it off, you need to know you’re pluses flipping, and keep track of the early voters that are pluses.

Yep, tough to gauge without that raw real knowledge.

A 9% surge, that would be in the window, but as Rich said, I know I don’t know the reason or if they are the pluses.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:17 am
Do you feel the Bern?

Maybe ointment will help…

Comment by Under Influenced Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:21 am
People are feeling the Bern

Comment by ILPundit Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:22 am
The numbers are too small to make a real difference. I like the idea of early voting. But if you voted for Rubio over a week ago,wouldn’t feel like maybe you would make a different choice on Tuesday? I have voted early but think waiting may make for a more informed voter.

Comment by jeffinginchicago Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:23 am
I just voted early at the county bldg. my ballot number in the box was 2147 and my sons was 2148. So not sure if that is the total early votes.

Comment by golf_ace18 Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:32 am
If the surge is happening for McCann, then Rauner will be feeling the heartburn.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:34 am
I’m surprised to learn there are more than 1 OR 2 Democratic voters in Sangamon County. /s

Comment by AC Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:37 am
Since Clinton is unable to put Sanders away, there is significant interest in the race. This will dampen labor McCann crossover voting.

Comment by Beaner Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:44 am
I had originally thought there wouldn’t be many Bernie voters downstate and that meant many democrats would feel comfortable pulling an R ballot in the 50th. Since Hillary supporters could probably feel pretty confident that she will take Illinois.

But I’ve been hearing on NPR that people looking into what happened in Michigan are seeing that Bernie does extremely well with rural white voters. Same with his wins in other states.

I originally thought the Bern would mainly be felt in big cities and college towns. But Hillary has been taking the big cities because of the strong African American vote.

So yeah, who knows what will happen Tuesday.

Comment by There is power in a union... Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:44 am
Rich, I’m sure you already know this, but Sam McCann’s district does not cover all of Sangamon County. Therefore, some of those Sangamon County early voters can not vote for McCann.

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:45 am
I think Sams in trouble and here why. For someone like me that associated with what the Illinois Republican Party was, you really can’t vote Benton (assuming you understand he won’t vote with the district if ever that vote contradicts Rauner), but you also can’t go with McCAnn in good concience after his inability to clean up his various messes.
If the change truly mattered like the Dunkin race I would pull and vote McCann because it would truly be better for the district he represents. In the end no ones touching the majority Cullerton has, so I’ll leave it blank in a weak self righteous protest of our horriable State.

Comment by I'm part of the problem Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:46 am
Well, I hadn’t thought about the Bern. The folks that scolded me the other night are pretty hard core sisters and brothers. I hadn’t thought about people pulling D ballots for Bernie. I also hadn’t thought about folks pulling D ballots for Bernie in protest for AFSCME endorsing Hillary. Who knows what is going on. It’s making me realize I’m a learner in the political field again. It’s such a strange time and if you folks are having trouble figuring it out, I maybe shouldn’t feel like an idiot. I know AFSCME organized a LOT of effort around McCann. It honestly wasn’t token at all. But I think the Bern may have been a bigger factor. I certainly felt it. Going to the Bern rally at SIUE was what my youngster wanted to do on her birthday. Pulled them out of school and went. Again I’m not in McCanns district but we’ll see what happens.

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:47 am
Mama - correct, and that also makes me wonder if some of the “crossover” voters live in Brady’s and Manar’s districts. People could get confused and pull an R ballot in the wrong district. McCann has a slight majority of Sangamon County, but Brady and Manar make up close to the rest and have state workers and union faithful in the district as well. I would be curious to see if that happens.

Comment by Team Sleep Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:55 am
Is anyone running against Brady or Manar?

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:03 am
Maybe the higher Dem turnout is an anti Rauner response.

Comment by Wensicia Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:04 am
I know a lot of people who ‘Feel the Bern’, myself included. We want to finally be able to vote for someone we believe in and not ‘the lesser of two evils’.

I would absolutely love to see McCann beat Benton, but to pull a Republican ballot and vote for someone with as many issues as Sam has, versus pulling a Democratic ballot and hopefully helping to change the course of the Democratic party in the US and finally getting big money out of politics… there’s really no question.

Comment by CharlieKratos Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:04 am
I think one of the ways to check this would be to run the same numbers for a comparable County without a contested State race. A similar increase in Rs would be Trump pulling voters. An increase in Ds would be Bernie pulling voters and bad for McCann. (Granted this is very rudimentary)

Comment by Original Rambler Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:09 am
If they are a Trump voter, are they voting for McCann? This could actually hurt him.

Comment by Ahoy! Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:33 am
I think there are some infrequent Primary voters who are pulling R ballots this time to vote for McCann. Four weeks ago I thought McCann would win but since then several more things have come out and it might be too much to over come.

Comment by The Dude Abides Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:35 am
Early voted this past Saturday in DuPage. Saw from the forms the election judges were collecting that 652 Republican ballots and 596 Democrat ballots had been requested up to that point. I was surprised that the numbers were so close in the Republican bastion of DuPage County. Used to be a time when there probably weren’t 596 Democrats in the entire county.

Comment by GA Watcher Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:37 am
You have to factor in the fact that 2 years ago public employee democrats across Sangamon County (like me) were pulling R ballots to vote for Dillard over Rauner. This time public employee and other union Ds in part of Sangamon County (not mine) are pulling R ballots to vote for Sam. It’s going to be very hard to compare apples to apples this time until all the votes are counted.

Comment by Bibe Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:52 am
There are people requesting R ballots who are “Anyone but Trump” and “Stop Trump”. Those people might be voting for the lesser evil rather than someone they support, but with many big elections coming in at close to 50/50 results you have to consider what happens if the other candidate wins. You had a nice post earlier this week on the same topic - how many times the underdog candidate won the general election.

Comment by FAIRNESS AND FAIRNESS ONLY Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 11:55 am
- Under Influenced - Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 10:21 am:

Do you feel the Bern?

Maybe ointment will help…

We will need much more than ointment to sooth the Bern.

Comment by Tone Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 12:21 pm
=Is anyone running against Brady or Manar?=

Mama, I know Brady is running unopposed. I live in Brady’s district. I voted early and pulled an R ballot. Fwiw, I voted against Trump.

Comment by Kurt in Springfield Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 12:45 pm
If I didn’t so strongly want to support McCann, I would have pulled a D primary ballot just to vote anybody but Hillary.

Comment by RNUG Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 1:42 pm
=Honeybear= Hillary is going to win Illinois maybe 60/40 tuesday. McCann could lose by less than 500 votes. Its close for Sam.

Comment by Magic carpet Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:10 pm
Anyone have any info on where the Hillary town hall in Springfield is supposed to be on Monday??

Comment by L.A. Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 2:38 pm
My bet Hillary wins Illinois by 2% points

Comment by Honeybear Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:03 pm
Bernie by 3. What can I say, I’m an optimist.

Comment by CharlieKratos Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 3:22 pm
Honeybear, you have to point out to your brothers/sisters feeling the Bern that they’re far more at risk from what’s going on in Illinois than any benefit or risk they’ll get from the winner of the Dem presidential campaign. Tell them that it’s more important for us to give Rauner the heartburn through their vote for McCann.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:15 pm
===Tell them that it’s more important for us to give Rauner the heartburn through their vote for McCann.==

Well said - Norseman -, that’s the ball game

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:22 pm
Thanks Willy. I do have to make a correction. I meant to say Presidential PRIMARY campaign. We’re all at risk if Trump gets elected.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:28 pm
$3 million is now the figure given to Rauner’s puppet. Obviously they’re nervous. I suspect they know McCann is more than holding his own against their onslaught.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:31 pm
I just early voted because my daughter wanted to vote for Bernie but had to register first. There were several young people getting democratic ballots.

Comment by present Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:32 pm
People need to make sure they are in McCann’s district before pulling an R to vote for him. I’m sure Honeybear would vote for McCann if she lived in his district & the same goes for me.

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:39 pm
Who is running against Rauner’s plant to replace Raymond Poe?

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:40 pm
RNUG….you have a brilliant mind!!!

Comment by Blue dog dem Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:40 pm
I just voted early because my daughter needed to register. There were several young people also requesting democratic ballots. She knows I voted for McCann and why yet had to vote for Bernie! I didn’t tell her how to vote. Kids

Comment by present Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:41 pm
@4:39 change she to he.. sorry

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:42 pm
Btw I don’t recommend windows phones. Sorry posted twice.

Comment by present Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:54 pm
Like a previous commented I noticed the count. Over 2300.

Comment by present Friday, Mar 11, 16 @ 4:58 pm