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Two new polls have Trump maintaining lead, Rubio tanking

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* For context, the Tribune poll (March 2-6) had Donald Trump leading with 32 percent, Cruz at 22, Rubio with 21 and Kasich at 18 with 7 percent were undecided. The We Ask America poll (March 7-8) had Trump at 33, Cruz with 20, Kasich at 18, Rubio with 11 and 16 percent undecided.

* CBS…

* Methodology…

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 5,300 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Illinois, Ohio. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.

It’s difficult to say with certainty whether Cruz is surging because of our next poll result. But, hey, these races can and do turn on a dime, so nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Friday night’s UIC rally could make a difference, or not. Trump is clearly hoping it will, considering his remarks since then, but so do his opponents.

* NBC…

* Methodology…

In Illinois, the poll surveyed 1,968 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points), 529 likely Democratic primary voters (plus-minus 4.3 percentage points) and 421 likely GOP primary voters (plus-minus 4.8 percentage points).

* Related…

* @moniquegarcia: State Rep. Cabello introduces Trump, defends his record on minorities. Points to his Mexican heritage but says above all, “I am American.”

* @ChiTribCloutSt: At the Trump rally, a woman sang the Star-Spangled Banner. And now state Rep. John Cabello is endorsing Trump, citing gun rights support.

* Trump backlash swift and loud, but does it matter?: “Donald Trump created that hostile environment,” said state Rep. Ed Sullivan, a Mundelein Republican and backer of Ohio Gov. John Kasich. He predicted a backlash against Trump. But if there isn’t one, Sullivan said, “God help us.”

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Mar 13, 16 @ 11:50 am

Comments

It will be closer than this.
Trump - 34%
Kasich - 32%
Cruz - 28%
Rubio - 5%

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 7:48 am
I feel in my gut that Trump clears at least 40%. I actually think there are some suburban and downstate voters who will see Friday’s happenings as a positive for Trump and punch him in. Yikes.

Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:08 am
Who are the Cruz supporters? Is there a geographic vote in play?

If you’re into that sort of thing, why Cruz rather than Trump?

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:25 am
I think Kasich does better than the numbers show. Without Rubio, he could have challenged Trump for the win.

Comment by Wensicia Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:42 am
@TeamSleep - I fear you are exactly right.

Made me sick seeing pictures from Sunday in Bloomington with the McLean County sheriff posing with Trump doing a thumbs up at the same time Trump has reacted to Friday’s events by encouraging more lawlessness and division and again discussing paying the legal fees of his supporters that act violently against his protesters. Just sickening.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 8:59 am
Of the 4 left, Kacish seems the best equipped in that he seems sane and qualified. Not on board with all his policies, but compared to the rest….

However, do I vote for him or do I get on board the Stop Trump train and vote Cruz? I don’t like him, but I at least think he’s sane. Rubio is sane, but not seasoned. Trump… No printable adjectives to describe him.

Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:08 am
WOO HOO! Winning…

Comment by Allen D Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 9:24 am
Egos and arrogance destroy the GOO establishment on this. They should of narrowed it down to either Rubio or Kasich weeks ago, but failed to. They under estimated Trump and expected him to fade and he didn’t. Now Cruz is the best chance to stop trump. Tomorrow in the meaningless beauty contest I voting for the person that was my first choice before he dropped out, Rand Pail, in the delegate election, i.e. what counts, I am voting for Cruz delegates.

Comment by RMW Stanford Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:48 am
Seems to me the candidates real names should be used on the ballot not nicknames. Rafael Eduardo Cruz comes to mind.

Comment by Aux Canada Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 10:56 am
So do I vote for the guy remaining who I think will do the best job, or do I vote for the guy most likely to deny Trump delegates?

Comment by ChrisB Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 11:52 am
It seems to me that Primary ballots should be updated, and the withdrawn candidate be removed. I know we are not that advanced yet though… Sigh maybe by the election of 3000 we will get updated to reflect the current candidates.

Comment by Allen D Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 11:54 am
===It seems to me that Primary ballots should be updated, and the withdrawn candidate be removed.===

No one has withdrawn, they’ve suspended their campaigns.

Please, keep up.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 11:56 am
The results from my monthly poker game Sunday afternoon.

Trump 5.
Rubio 2.
Sanders 1..

The irony. Six retired and active Union members.

Comment by Blue dog dem Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 12:17 pm
===No one has withdrawn, they’ve suspended their campaigns.Please, keep up.===

Hrmmm of the ones I can remember off the top of my head;
Chris Christie - withdrawn
George Pataki - withdrawn
Scott Walker - withdrawn

Suspended - Dropped Out - Quit Running - Withdrawn….. just semantics with not a chance…

Comment by Allen D Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 12:59 pm
===Suspended - Dropped Out - Quit Running - Withdrawn….. just semantics with not a chance…===

Nah.

Your continued utter ignorance can’t be described as a misunderstanding of semantics.

You just don’t understand words.

That’s cool…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:07 pm
Who are the Cruz supporters? Is there a geographic vote in play?

If you’re into that sort of thing, why Cruz rather than Trump?

I presume bizarre evangelical christians are Cruz’s main source of voters. Trump is not a christian and if one was very religious, I doubt he could get support from the devout.

Comment by Tone Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:08 pm
The results of a poll at my family party on Sunday

Clinton 7
Kasich 3
Sanders 0
Trump 0

Comment by Tone Monday, Mar 14, 16 @ 1:10 pm