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The Dan Proft scorecard

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Illinois

* That Chris Harris race was more of a onetime lark, so I don’t count it as a Dan Proft “loss.” If you look at the races where Proft’s Liberty Principles PAC was all-in, he did pretty darned well, winning 6 out of 8…

* In comparison, IllinoisGO went 2 for 5, but they really didn’t have much to do with those two claimed wins…

Rep. Mitchell won by 12 points and ILGO’s spending was small compared to the grand total. Sen. Van Pelt won by 36 points.

Proft, on the other hand, was the dominant player in all of those races and gets much of the credit for the wins.

* Daily Herald…

The Liberty Principles political action committee, run by conservative radio host Dan Proft and paid for in part by a group supporting Gov. Bruce Rauner, spent big on two Republican candidates in the suburbs.

Proft’s group spent $493,567 in support of Dan McConchie, a Hawthorn Woods Republican running to replace state Sen. Dan Duffy, according to IllinoisElectionData.com. That’s an effort run by Scott Kennedy, a data expert tracking Statehouse campaigns across Illinois. […]

He declared victory late Thursday after vote-counting delays.

Illinois House hopeful Allen Skillicorn of East Dundee, who won his primary race to replace Rep. Mike Tryon, got a boost from Liberty Principles, too. The group spent $456,963 on his race.

* Another one…

Former state Rep. Brad Halbrook of Shelbyville, aided by the fundraising muscle of Gov. Bruce Rauner and his allies, Tuesday defeated two other candidates to win the Republican nomination in the 102nd House District.

Halbrook defeated Jim Acklin of Ogden and Randy Peterson of Paris, taking 43.6 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Acklin and about 18.4 percent for Peterson. […]

Halbrook raised $96,746 since Oct. 1, most of it from Gov. Rauner, to whom the Shelbyville farmer pledged allegiance, saying he would vote for every part of the governor’s “turnaround agenda.” Not only did Halbrook get $53,000 from the Citizens for Rauner campaign fund, he also was the only individual candidate this year to receive a personal campaign contribution from the governor and his wife. Both of the Rauners gave Halbrook’s campaign $5,400.

In addition, a superPAC known as Liberty Principles PAC, funded largely by the governor and his allies, gave the Halbrook campaign about $300,000 in campaign aid, including television and radio advertisements and mailings.

* More…

Brandi McGuire took about 59 percent of the vote to beat Jordan Thoms who had 41 percent with most precincts reporting.

Both candidates were political newcomers but Ms. McGuire was helped by $185,000 in outside money that came from Liberty Principles, a super PAC chaired by conservative talk show host Dan Proft with close ties to Gov. Bruce Rauner.

Ms. McGuire said would start formulating her plan to beat Mr. Halpin today and said she was confident she would prevail in a district that has long been in Democratic hands.

“The people of this district deserve to be heard,” she said. “I am just a regular person, a mother of a middle class family, and I think Springfield needs people like me.”

* More…

Phillips, 62, of Charleston, was first elected in 2014. Phillips pulled in 10,920 to 7,387, for about 59.6 percent. Kaye, 54, of Toledo, owns Cedar Ridge Nursery.

Phillips called the race “grueling.” He also said his short time as a freshman representative has been an “eye-opening” experience in Springfield.

“I was naive,” Phillips said. “It is like pulling teeth to get anything done in Springfield.”

* More…

Paul Schimpf: 18,277

Sharee Langenstein: 9,094

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:41 am

Comments

Which ones of Proft’s victories were against incumbents?

Comment by Union Man Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:43 am
The other difference between Liberty Principles and ILGO is that the ILGO-supported Dem candidates who won publicly disavowed the group’s support. The Proft-backed candidates welcomed his help.

Comment by Fred Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:47 am
Still mind-boggling: $3 million on Benton.

The NYT reported yesterday that Trump has spent $10 million on advertising nationally so far.

Of course, they calculated he’s received about $2 billion in free media.

Comment by wordslinger Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:49 am
Fred +1

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:52 am
I’m impressed.

No snark. Proft should be pleased too.

Keep in mind winning the intramural school flag football championship isn’t like guiding a team intermurally in the NCAA and winning.

Proft’s Raunerite influence will be felt in the alleged “GOP” Caucuses.

What McCann and Dunkin taught me was that Proft wanted to drain every nickel he could in McCann and Dunkin, and the king game he himself talked about is going along as planned, on the very long game.

You’re shortsided if you don’t think this isn’t a starting point.

You win your High School intramural championship first, then you take on other schools.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:53 am
What about the 1.3mil that the other Proft group spent on Dunkin? If your gonna have a Dan Proft scorecard that must be included.

Comment by The anti-trib Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:53 am
In total dollars, for every winning dollar, he spent $1.85 in losing dollars.

How that’s ROI working for you Gov. Business?

Comment by Dee Lay Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:56 am
I’m impressed too. Wait, check that. Can someone point me to a big race that Proft has won?

One constant in all of his races, win or lose, is the rank negativity. No one can go gutter like Proft. #Cicero

Comment by Ottawa Phil Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:57 am
As for Proft’s performance, it’s hardly a predictor for the general election. He spent a barrel of cash against unknown and underfunded opponents. Plus: these were Republican primaries. Proft is a right wing zealot and his stuff reflects that. His mail into the Welch district went down like a lead balloon. Plus: Presidential year. Plus: Rauner will be even more unpopular in November than he is right now. Plus: Donald Trump.

Comment by Eugene Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 9:58 am
I guess that is sort of impressive. I would compare it to this years Saluki Men’s Basketball Team. They ran up a great record, but it was against a weak schedule. Proft won some races, but he lost the ones that mattered.

Comment by Saluki Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:01 am
Sorry to say I don’t really agree with this argument. There was ridiculous amounts of spending against candidates with almost no money right? On the big ticket items proft lost big time. There is no face-saving spinning on Ken Dunkin and Sam McCann.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:03 am
Someday I want to run for office so someone with a bunch of money can take credit for me winning my race.

This is a new thing, right? I don’t remember people with deep pockets publicly bragging about throwing money behind the winning candidates even just a few cycles ago.

Comment by Anon Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:03 am
Eugene- +++ on all points:)

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:05 am
The takeaway here is that when you dramatically outspend your opponents, like in the range of 3:1 to 10:1, you have a 75% chance of winning.

Comment by CornerGuy Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:06 am
Nice chart..Yes, Proft did well in most of his R primaries, now the big question is does he know how to win a competitive down ballot House race in the fall.. As far as IllinoisGo and Goldner, non players this week as far as winning..Just money thrown down the drain by the Gov..But then again, Im sure his “cut” from all the Rauner money made Greg a personal winner..

Comment by Not Rich Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:06 am
Corner guy is correct. Spending $500k to help a lowly state senate candidate against candidates with no cash? That’s not talent, that’s malpractice.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:09 am
No one can wave the false flag of victory like Dan Proft. Yes, he wins lots of “undercards”– by overwhelming money and hate mail. Yet he loses (every time?!) the even-handed battles … despite outspending his opponents.

Nice chart, indeed.

Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:12 am
Reggie’s opponent in the 110th was a non-starter anyway. He never stood a chance with his record and his lack of campaigning. The $100k spent in that race was probably cheap insurance, though. Made the win easier.

Comment by MSIX Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:16 am
In the Halbrook/Acklin race money made a huge difference imo. The ad the liberty pac sent out that looked like a newspaper but wasnt really was effective imo. Total BS in those ads but effective. Acklin has a lawsuit pending on the fake paper.

Comment by sparky791 Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:18 am
I’d really like to discount Proft’s wins, but it keeps coming out as “Proft only wins races when he does the things that he does in the races that he wins.”

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:20 am
It may not just be trump. If trump wins the far right is going third party. If they take from Trump. He goes third. He will probably encourage voting aginst downballot republicans. All with Hillary winning 60% against both….let’s see if Proft and Rauner just burn money

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:23 am
Question: In the GOP primaries he won, did Proft tie any of his opponents to Madigan and marry his candidates to Rauner?

That was the proxy battle in the Dunkin and McCann races — Madigan vs Rauner. And in both races, in two very different district, one in each party, Rauner lost. Does not bode well for the Fall.

Comment by Fred Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:23 am
Except when he doesn’t … like all of the meaningful races.

-1 @MisterjayEm

Comment by Georg Sande Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:24 am
- Fred - is on a roll…

Well said, both comments.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:25 am
The other beauty of this Primary victory against Proft is its winners will leave office the same time the Governor leaves! NOTHING changes in the ILGA. (barring medical events…or unexpected resignations). It will FORCE him to burn IL down completely or finally admit he has been ineffectual.

Comment by Union Man Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:32 am
It’s impossible to look at how Proft did on 3/15 without including Dunkin.

But yea - every year Proft has a bunch of “wins” against mostly hapless opponents. This primary cycle he spent a bunch of money to defeat opponents that didn’t have any, and in many of them he still barely won. A win is a win, but $/vote is high and unnecessary, considering that most of the time the losing opponents would essentially be the same vote as the Proft backed winner.

Comment by AlabamaShake Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:32 am
===$/vote is high and unnecessary===

Money is no object to these guys now. “Unnecessary” is in your mind only.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:36 am
There isn’t any way to know whether the winners would have still won without the help. I’m sure some of it was picking races with weaker candidates.

Comment by NoGifts Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:38 am
This governor is turning our state more BLUE.

Comment by Magic carpet ride Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:38 am
Dunkin and Mccann are Proft’s Waterloo.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:41 am
Rich- Money may not be an object to these guys, but the general public is becoming more and more aware of where it’s coming from. So, as an object, it is one of scrutiny now. More so than before this primary, and hopefully even more so into the general.

Comment by Anon221 Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:41 am
Seriously?! Where Proft was seriously challanged, he spent Huge money and lost. Many of those others were either no effort against or little. Like Schimpf, no one ever thought he would lose. When it counted, Proft wasted Huge amounts of money and lost. He jumps the shark in races and then wonders how he lost. Embarrassing. I get that he wants to spin but come on. Ridiculous.

Comment by Springfield Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:42 am
Acklin could be a viable independent challenger to Halbrook in NOV, especially if his lawsuit pertaining to the Liberty PAC “newspaper” mailers gains traction. Despite Rauner and Liberty PAC support, Halbrook did not win a convincing victory. Anyone else hearing the recent IPI sponsored radio ads suggesting that personal care assistants should increase their paychecks by discontinuing to pay SEIU dues? Shameful on a number of levels.

Comment by kitty Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:48 am
Makes sense. The Republican enforcer does well in the R primaries - I don’t think you can hold it against Proft if he’s got more money than his opponents. He was asked to do a job and he did it.

That being said, his blind spot appears to be in places where making the race into a proxy war between Rauner and Madigan isn’t to his advantage. I think back to the TV ad Proft ran where he led the attack on McCann’s taxes by talking about Madigan. I’m sure Madigan’s approval rating is in the toilet in that district, but the amount of work you’d have to do to truly make an known incumbent into a Madigan tool is way beyond 10 seconds at the beginning of a commercial from a mysterious PAC. You need earned media, other Republican validators, something from McCann you could twist into support for Madigan. But as a true believer, Proft doesn’t seem to see that.

As for ILGO - pretty flimsy cover for attempted Republican interference in Dem primaries and voters treated it as such.

Comment by Century Club Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:51 am
Didn’t Edgar go all in for Acklin against Phillips? That’s a definite win.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 10:54 am
Money is definitely an object. Don’t kid yourselves. If you have say a billion and only part with 20 and then spend around say 10, money seems to be an object. All in? Hardly.

And as far as this “long game” talk goes, there is an election in about 2 1/2 years. Either the one term talk was just another politician speaking or the “long game” aint’ so long. Re-election? Illinois. Always interesting.

Comment by Loud Muted Sound Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:01 am
===Acklin could be a viable independent challenger to Halbrook in NOV===

Again, if you have no real understanding of politics, don’t post here. We have a sore loser law in Illinois. He can’t run again this year.

===Didn’t Edgar go all in for Acklin against Phillips? ===

Again… Sigh.

Acklin ran against Halbrook. So, yes, that’s a big win, but against a different candidate.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:03 am
Wins are wins, so that is Proft’s scorecard.

It’s hard to judge ROI. Some of these guys were favored to win anyway.

Comment by walker Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:12 am
===Either the one term talk was just another politician speaking===

Rauner said he’d limit himself to two terms.

Next!

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:12 am
===What about the 1.3mil that the other Proft group spent on Dunkin? If your gonna have a Dan Proft scorecard that must be included. ===

It was cash. He had no control over how that cash was spent. And he was a pass-thru. I’m guessing a certain rich guy(s) wrote some checks.

An IE committee is vastly different in my book because it’s spending the money itself on mail, TV, etc.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:24 am
“Wins are wins, so that is Proft’s scorecard.”

Yep.

– MrJM

Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 11:25 am
Proft did well, there I said it.

No amount of money could have saved Dunkin. Also, McCann’s district has many Republican households, that’s was a pretty difficult race. Proft crushed in many races.

While Republicans got smoked in Chicago (Gonzales, Dunkin), when was the last time Republicans even tried to play in Chicago?

Comment by Rhino Slider Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:11 pm
Edit: many Republican UNION households in McCann’s district.

Comment by Rhino Slider Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:13 pm
I don’t buy the Proft narrative.

It’s like saying that Illinois basketball had a great year because they went 8-5 in non-conference games. Beating UIC, Chicago State and Soth Dakota is the equivalent of winning these relatively uncontested races against largely unknown and unfunded opponents.

Comment by 4 percent Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:27 pm
Can’t help but think that the “wins are wins” comments are coming from Democrats relishing Proft’s continuing damage to Republicans … not unlike Dems. quietly aching for Trump to be the Rep.’s presidential candidate.

Comment by Ottawa Phil Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:31 pm
Rich, did Rauner say why he wants 2 terms?

Does Rauner plan to take the State Pension?

“Rauner said he’d limit himself to two terms.”

Four years with Rauner as the governor is bad enough, but eight years is a nightmare for 99% of people in IL!

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:50 pm
==Four years with Rauner as the governor is bad enough, but eight years is a nightmare for 99% of people in IL!==

But Elysian Fields for the 1%. That’s all that matters.

Comment by MSIX Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 12:58 pm
If I made $3,150,046 in losing investments and $1,685,286 in winning investments, I’d be bad at my job. Since its an IE, looking at it in total, for 6 representative’s favor they spent $4.7m. They could, at max, for $4.7m, gotten 8 rep’s favor. Still feels like a loss when putting that $4.7m into the hands of some of the failing social service providers as a personal donation would have built a lot more political capital through free media.

Comment by CD Sorensen Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:01 pm
There’s no way to spin this. Dan proft blew it. He was paid to help Dunkin with unlimited resources. He savaged McCann with unlimited resources. He lost the two biggest races this election cycle. You can’t go back and his apologists can’t spin it. He must be smarting over this. Big time.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:02 pm
===He was paid to help Dunkin with unlimited resources===

Again, I’m pretty sure that was simply pass-through money. I don’t count it. Call me an apologist or whatever. Don’t care. As far as I can tell, he funneled a contribution to Dunkin from someone who didn’t want it known who he was.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:06 pm
Since January, this forum has promoted Proft in conjunction with the hits on Dunkin and McCann. Prominently and aggressively. “The biggest story not being promoted this year.” I guess you can always try to have it both ways. But I don’t think it’s working.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:27 pm
===“The biggest story not being promoted this year.” ===

I wrote that in reference to Liberty Principles PAC.

Look it up. And bite me.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:29 pm
Rich is taking heat for not being tough enough on Proft/Rauner? Now I’ve seen it all…..

Comment by Anony Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:31 pm
===not being tough enough on Proft/Rauner?===

Comes with the territory.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:34 pm
Talking about “playing the long game” is all well and good, but you have to stay in the game to take advantage of the long play. If the Republicans don’t start picking up seats in Nov or 2018, and Rauner gets beaten in his re-election in spite of all of his money, how exactly are they still in the game?

Comment by Doofman Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:35 pm
===If the Republicans don’t start picking up seats in Nov or 2018, and Rauner gets beaten in his re-election in spite of all of his money===

Well, duh. Then it’s game over, right? C’mon. don’t be a doofus.

But if Hillary Clinton wins, how do you think that first midterm election is gonna turn out for y’all?

Anyone?

Bueller?

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:37 pm
@Rich: Just trying to clarify the issues, there seems to be an attitude that money will trump all, and that because the money is virtually unlimited that “in the long run” it can’t be beaten. As Tuesday’s results have shown, it can.

People talk alot about Obama “playing the long game” and “eleventh-dimensional chess,” but of course if he’d lost in 2012 all of those claims would have been moot.

As for a potential 2018 race under a President Hilary Clinton, I’d ask Gov. Quinn how things went in a national midterm GOP wave after Obama was elected and the economy continued to tank.

Comment by Doofman Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 1:58 pm
===because the money is virtually unlimited that “in the long run” it can’t be beaten===

Your words, not mine. Now, either focus your complaints on what I’ve actually written or focus your attention elsewhere.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 2:06 pm
Rauner may be willing to blow part of his fortune…..but not a lot of these rich guys are or we would have even more. There are 16 000 centi millionairs, look at Ken Griffens Citadel news in Crains today.

Comment by illinois manufacturer Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 2:17 pm
Excuses, excuses. No one is buying the spin.

Comment by whatev Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 4:22 pm
I don’t think the BIG ones were winnable. Could Axelrod have saved Dunkin? I think not.

I still think Proft had a decent night. Those opponents weren’t lightweights in most races.

Comment by Rhino Slider Friday, Mar 18, 16 @ 4:23 pm