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Rauner has his work cut out for him

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Illinois
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

“He was a god in that district,” a high-level Rauner guy told me about state Sen. Sam McCann’s poll numbers from before this year’s Republican primary campaign began.

Benchmark polling taken months ago showed McCann, R-Plainview, had a voter approval rating of about 70 percent. McCann “really was everywhere” in the district, attending events all over the place throughout his tenure, the Rauner official admitted.

Looking at those initial numbers, “you’d have to be crazy” to take McCann on, the official said. But the governor had threatened to punish any Republican who voted with AFSCME on a now infamous bill which barred a state employee strike and instead forced binding arbitration. McCann was the only Republican to vote against Rauner, so a massive game plan was devised.

What followed was the most expensive Republican legislative primary race in the history of Illinois. In the past, the million dollars or so raised and spent by and on behalf of McCann would’ve dropped jaws everywhere. But McCann’s $1 million was less than a quarter of the race’s $4.2 million grand total.

Even so, McCann defeated his Rauner-backed opponent Bryce Benton by more than 5 points.

Aside from the fact that beating any incumbent who starts off beloved by 7 in 10 voters is almost impossible, some folks think McCann’s opposition actually spent too much money. They claim that after the first $1 million, the rest was all white noise and may have prompted voters to start wondering just what in the heck was going on.

McCann never directly rebutted the allegations from the other side’s dogged research into his mileage reimbursements or his personal financial problems and claimed but nonexistent military service, but he did have an answer for voters who wondered why their television screens were filled to the brim with anti-McCann ads: “Chicago.”

“I’m being attacked because I did what was right for this district,” McCann said in what became a ubiquitous TV ad at the same time a “Chicago PAC spends $1.5 million against McCann” headline flashed across the screen. The ad started airing weeks before the total climbed to more than double that amount.

Benton, McCann’s opponent, never really established himself with voters as a hometown guy. That lack of biographical information probably bolstered McCann’s “Chicago” claim.

The “Chicago” attack worked in another race, Team Rauner admits. They used it themselves to beat back state Sen. Kyle McCarter’s GOP congressional bid against U.S Rep. John Shimkus. McCarter didn’t have more than a few dollars, so most voters had no idea who he was. Shimkus’ campaign defined him as a Chicago-loving guy. Shimkus never polled above 55 percent, but he wound up with 60.

Raunerite fingers are also angrily pointing at the “regulars” in the Sangamon County Republican Party who stuck with McCann to the end. McCann actually lost Sangamon by a few votes, but they say he would’ve lost by more if the party leaders had stuck with Rauner.

The reasons those party folks stood with McCann are twofold: 1) He’d built up a lot of goodwill and 2) Thousands of unionized state employees in the county are reliable Republican voters.

“If McCann loses, it won’t be due to a lack of volunteers on election day,” a union staffer texted me the morning of election day. “I’m not kidding when I say I’ve never seen a campaign have to adapt because of so many volunteers,” he texted a few hours later.

Those Springfield-area state workers have their own informal but vast communications network. They talk politics with coworkers, and then they bring informed opinions to their homes and their social circles. It worked two years ago when they thumped Bruce Rauner in Sangamon County, and it worked again this time when they helped carry McCann across the finish line.

The question now becomes how the Republicans retool their message for November. The McCann primary had been expected to be a preview of what’s to come. Unprecedented money from Rauner, charges that an incumbent is House Speaker Michael Madigan’s “favorite” legislator and brutally unflinching opposition research. But, just like McCann, most targeted Democrats have built up enormous local goodwill over the years.

Rauner and Proft’s money and effort won numerous primary races around Illinois this year where the opponents were little-known and relatively lightly funded. Those often hapless opponents could be defined almost at will. But, like with McCann, Rauner’s top targeted House Democratic incumbents won’t be so easy to redefine.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:17 am

Comments

The Chicago angle is fantastic. Benton takes money from Chicago politicians. McCann gets support from Madigan’s Chicago machine. If that is the message, then they check each other?

Then voters have to look at their humble 50th district lives and wonder if their schools will open and if their family member has a job in a few months, and if they have to split their meal on Friday to last until Monday.

But Rauner doesn’t get that.

Comment by Dr X Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:24 am
Good article. But it demonstrates that labor has taken up the challenge. They just need to keep it up. It’s a long-term war and there livelihoods depend upon them being ever vigilant.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:26 am
To use a line from the street protesters: “This is what democracy looks like.”

Comment by uptown progressive Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:29 am
===If that is the message, then they check each other? ===

No. McCann is a known and popular quantity. So that stuff doesn’t work as well on him as it did on his almost unknown opponent.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:31 am
===Unprecedented money from Rauner, charges that an incumbent is House Speaker Michael Madigan’s “favorite” legislator and brutally unflinching opposition research. But, just like McCann, most targeted Democrats have built up enormous local goodwill over the years.===

The Raunerites?

If the Democrats, Labor, and the college towns make November a referendum on Bruce Rauner…

Skyhook in Reverse.

Rockwell Torrey saw this and was able to have a resounding victory, meeting the threats.

You keep pushing the shutting down of Eastern, keep attacking AFScammy, picking at all of Labor… The Yamato will stay, and the battle will be lost.

The very last thing and alleged Republican wants, especially after Tuesday is that Rauner Referendum come November.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:39 am
Increasingly the message is “This is what Rauner wants” That message tells voters to vote the opposite. The day is coming when Bruce will be on the ballot and swept away.

Comment by Publius Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:40 am
Wow, OW is hitting the In Harm’s Way analogy pretty early this morning.

Comment by G'Kar Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:47 am
Madigan– voting MACHINE
Rauner — money MACHINE

Comment by Magic carpet ride Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 9:52 am
If 70 of 100 voters love McCann, but ~52 of 100 voted for him, McCann got dinged. I would be honked off Rauner aired out dirty laundry for the Democrats to use. McCann can got to the mattresses and wage war on Rauner and his organization, or consider making peace to avoid the hassle. Perhaps talk tough and carry some honey is the best path for both sides.

Comment by Touré's Latte Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:12 am
Waiting for the press release that CEO Rauner has decided to break up Illinois and sell off Sangamon County.

Comment by OutHereInTheMiddle Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:12 am
It’s really good to finally see some key victories that rewarded all the hard work by campaign volunteers who canvassed and phone-banked.

I hope that these successes encourage other Republicans in university/union districts to have the courage to vote for their constituents.

The problem is there’s a lot of time between now and November–time for the state to get even worse than it is now–because Rauner won’t drop his anti-union demands. Even Rep. Franks said there’s no chance of them passing.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:12 am
OW, my local reps are running press releases on how they’re trying to keep the college town running, but mean old Mike won’t let their bills out of committee. More and more, though, the people I talk to are waking up and see that as fluff.

This is it. He wants to starve these beasts. Consolidate, privatize what’s left, fund that at a fraction of previous levels and declare victory. Any challenger in a Republican held college town seat just needs to ask if they want the college to close up shop or not. Simple question.

Comment by illini97 Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:19 am
== - Touré’s Latte - ==

McCann didn’t pick the fight; Rauner did because McCann voted for his district rather than blind obidence to the party line Rauner demanded on that issue. ONE ISSUE, 3 votes total so far; the rest of the time he voted with the party. In a normal world, you expect Senators and Representatives to occasionally vote their district over the party line.

Rauner needs to be the one to get over it … but that’s not his pattern.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:22 am
- illini97 -

The goal is simple, straightforward, and as honest as even I can make it…

Carbondale, Charleston… Edwardsville… Macomb.

Bloomington… Normal.

Champaign.

Rauner wants Illinois universities destroyed. The universities are your economic engines.

If you live in these towns…

Vote. Accordingly.

That’s the ball game.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:48 am
- G’Kar -

Can’t I have SOME poetic license… lol.

OW

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:50 am
McCann represents his district well, and in a republic that is kind of the idea. Rauner should have understood that McCann needed to vote with his district on certain issues, and be glad he has a republican that that would vote for a republican speaker.

Comment by Facts are Stubborn Things Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:51 am
Willy loved the Harms Way analogy.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 10:56 am
If Rauner was smart, he would recognize the times when 75% wins so you let the rest go. Instead he comes off as ‘when I snap my fingers’ everyone pops into place every time. Some followers are just followers. Others need room to drift. A good leader gets them all home when absolutely needed.

Comment by zatoichi Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:08 am
Awfully slow learning process, on the Rauner legislative politics side.

First select the candidates who will represent their constituents well, then work from there.

Even in turmoil, democracy pretty much works.

Comment by walker Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 11:28 am
it was summed up well here by a seperate doscussion, the current crisis that is shutting down providers and schools etc is new. Madgian has been around forever, the new guy is the gov. Perception is this is due to Rauner.

The gov can argue all he wants that this is Madigans fault, but on a basic simple level people who dont like Madigan still see the change from the status quo into worse as on the new guy.

the blame madigan message may make Rauner and political insiders gleeful, but it seems to lack the visceral impact they want and, just the opposite it seems to be backfiring.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 12:03 pm
What’s strange about this race is that the Frat Boys chose such a stiff to go against McCann.

I wasn’t down there seeing or hearing the media every day, but peeps I respect on the blog here expressed amazement throughout the race that they never even heard Benton speak.

How weird is that? Why was he picked out of the chorus for the millions?

Check out Benton’s website. His bio consists of that he’s a trooper who loves his mom, his wife and his dog.

http://www.electbrycebenton.com/about-bryce-benton-personal-life/

That’s all swell, but c’mon, EVERYBODY loves their mom, wife and dog. That’s all you’ve got to say about yourself? Why should anyone vote for you? Because Uncle Bruce says so?

You put $3.5 million in a primary behind that story? That’s malpractice, all the way around. But still a great score for Proft, I’m sure.

Could have saved a whole lot of money with some basic, intelligent candidate recruiting.

Like the man said, “If I have six hours to chop down a tree, I will spend the first four sharpening the ax.”

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 1:44 pm
-word-,

I think it was as much about trying to drain the unions’ treasuries as it was about winning. The money they just spent won’t be available for other candidates this fall.

And had Benton won,Rauner would have solidified his domination of the IL GOP. And it would have been demoralizing to the union organizers and volunteers who went all out for Rauner.

Instead, the unions are revitalized. But it did reinforce Rauner’s world view that the unions have too much influence … so maybe it was worth $2M+ to Rauner.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 2:43 pm
Word-
You nailed it/him. I live in the 50th and Trooper Benton was pretty invisible, particularly towards the end.

McCann was regarded as a God…
Don’t know about that, but extremely popular, well-liked and very visible. Yeah, he was everywhere.

Then the oddly timed charges about his mileage. Wait a minute… the guy was everywhere, but in probably the largest geographic district in the state, he runs up a lot of miles. (I know a guy in agriculture sales in Central Illinois who told me 100K miles in a year is no big thing. He doesn’t have a fund to reimburse him - he takes it off his taxes.)

Then Bruce’s story last week about (coincidentally all) Democrat’s trips to China, Turkey, health spas, etc. A flash in the pan. One day’s play. Where’s that outrage??

Comment by Behind the Scenes Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 3:43 pm
Say what you want about Madigan, Chicago and all things Rauner is trying to destroy. Before Rauner, things at least worked. The mentally ill were cared for, universities weren’t mass firing people, families had affordable child care. Nothing works now. Nothing.

Comment by Kay F C Monday, Mar 21, 16 @ 4:54 pm