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The Chicago region in 2015 saw its first population decline since at least 1990, marking the greatest loss of any metropolitan area in the country, according to census data released Thursday.

In 2015 the region lost an estimated 6,263 people, according to the U.S. Census Bureau data. The reason for the decline is clear: The number of residents leaving the region in 2015 was so large — about 80,000 in all — that it couldn’t be offset by new residents and births, according to census data. […]

Overall, Illinois in 2015 had a population drop of about 22,194 people, and saw about 105,217 more people moving out of the state than moving in, according to census data.

But some of the Chicago region saw growth, too. Eight Illinois counties that saw growth included Will, Kane, McHenry and Kendall counties, according to census data.

Cook County’s population, on the other hand, dropped by about 10,488 people from 2014 — a decrease of about 0.24 percent — leaving the county with a population of about 5.2 million.

* Meanwhile…

Chicago, the city that had once been home to the most prominent African-Americans, from Joe Louis and Mahalia Jackson to Michael Jordan and Oprah, lost 181,000 black residents just between 2000 and 2010, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. […]

There are troubling signs that more well-to-do blacks have forsaken the city. Last fall, a Tribune article detailed how Chicago had fallen out of the top 10, from seventh place to 21st, in the percentage of black households earning at least $100,000. Many of the cities on the list are now in the South, as affluent blacks from northern cities have relocated.

Demographer William Frey calls it a “reverse migration.”

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 2:36 pm

Comments

When Chicago offers good housing between $100,000 to $200,000 for 2000 square feet, good schools, safe neighborhoods, property taxes below $4000 a year, and places to park my car as I shuffle through my daily routine - I may consider it.

Our families used to live there - for generations, as a matter of fact. But not anymore. We used to live in Beverly, South Deering, Roselawn, Pullman, Hegewisch, and Wrigleyville. Between the years, 1884 to 2004, our families lived in Chicago, moving from one neighborhood to another over that time. But not anymore.

We have a pair of cousins left. DINKs living in Wrigleyville. Professionals in a nice high rise. They make a lot of money. Everyone else has left Chicago, with no plans to return.

The migration out began after 1960, and then exploded over the past twenty years, between 1990 and 2010.

Our hearts will be forever in our hometown, but we cannot raise our children there anymore.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 2:58 pm
Will Illinois lose 1 or 2 House seats in the 2020 ?

Comment by Steve Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:01 pm
Since this is more topical to the discussion started on the pension post, I hope Rich will let me respond here.

ArchPundit - Metropolitan Statistical Areas for the Census are based in large part on commuting patterns. Most MSAs just have one central city for commuting, and Houston is in that category. Chicagoland has engulfed various satellite cities as it grew, and when the Census determines that there is still a strong commuting pattern to that satellite center it refers to it as a Metropolitan Division. Chicago has four such divisions, the main one being Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, with three smaller ones for Kane-Dekalb, Lake-Kenosha, and NW Indiana. I was trying to point out that for many measures, the Chicago Metropolitan division is more useful than the whole MSA.

I also appreciate that 1 year doesn’t say much about a trend, but 5 years begins to. I also recognize that there can be major external factors affecting future population change, but that doesn’t make projections from a 5 year trend inaccurate as long as the baseline is well defined.

Comment by muon Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:02 pm
We’re not losing “population.” Specifically, we are losing African-Americans at every economic level.

Why can’t Rauner see that our problem is not “business-unfriendly” nonsense; it is the reality that we fail to educate, employ, and protect our African-American citizens.

You don’t solve those problems by denying childcare to working parents, starving social service organizations, and slashing higher education funding. Nor do you solve them by passing symbolic “right to work for less” resolutions in random exurban municipalities.

You solve these problems by reforming our tax code and our school funding formulas, and by making sure that every family in Illinois has an equal chance to thrive and prosper.

Rauner, you asked for this job. You spent millions to get it. So govern already.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:04 pm
The question is who will lose their house seat?

Comment by Mama Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:04 pm
Steve - at this point Illinois is projected to lose one congressional seat in 2020. That’s true using either the 5 years since the 2010 Census on projecting just on the last 2 years of estimates. The second projection incorporates the two years of population loss by Illinois. So, it would require much steeper population losses or unexpected gains in the rest of the country for Illinois to lose two seats.

Comment by muon Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:07 pm
Harpo Studios closed in 2015. They has some well paid execs attached tonthe operation.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:10 pm
=== Steve - Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:01 pm:

Will Illinois lose 1 or 2 House seats in the 2020 ?===

The real miracle will be how Cook County picks up a Congressional Seat, a State Senate Seat, and 2 State Rep seats. So, if you literally live on I-55 you’ll be in the district that connects Kane County with include Cellular One field in the district. /s

Comment by A guy Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:12 pm
Mama - Given the new county data out today one can project that the greater Chicago metro area will have enough population in 2020 for 11.5 seats and greater Rockford would bring it up to 12 seats (assuming no gerrymandering lol). That leaves five seats for the rest of downstate, so in that case downstate will lose one seat.

Comment by muon Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:15 pm
We’ll be back. The state is centrally located. Air and rail national hub. Diverse industries, rich soil(farming), financial/service industry, manufacturing. Plenty of fresh water. Low pollution(except Chicago River, and that’s getting better). Our next president may be a Chicago native. Cubs(next world champs), Hawks, Sox, Bears, Lyric Opera, restaurants, music clubs, convention centers. Get a budget, put the tax rate back to 5%, restore services, and we’ll be more than OK.

Comment by DE Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:18 pm
This is bad any way you look at it. Compound this problem with th court ruling today. One has to wonder in fifty years who is left to pay pensions.

Chicago did a great job of transitioning from Blue collar to white collar jobs. However along this transition dozens of neighborhoods have been ignored and pushed aside. The city and state need to invest poverty stricken areas in any hopes of reducing or changing the outward flow of migration. Downtown has had more than their share of resources the last three decades. It’s time to spread it around for the betterment of the city and the state.

Comment by Almost the Weekend Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:21 pm
People wouldn’t be leaving Chicago if 1.4%’s turn around agenda had been passed. If the State was a more business friendly place, people wouldn’t have to go somewhere else. /s

Comment by Huh? Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:25 pm
“good housing between $100,000 to $200,000 for 2000 square feet,”

Where can one find “good” housing for $50 per square foot? With free land?

Comment by Chris Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:35 pm
=== Chris - Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:35 pm:

“good housing between $100,000 to $200,000 for 2000 square feet,”

Where can one find “good” housing for $50 per square foot? With free land?====

Here, if this trend continues.

Comment by A guy Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 3:43 pm
Moving to another state wasn’t because Illinois stinks…..it just made the decision so much easier

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:00 pm
State wide we are losing people of all races and it has been going on since well before Rauner became Governor. So if you truly want to blame someone then direct it at Michael Madigan that has led this State into this financial mess and has failed to adapt to keep this State competitive in the business market. School funding and the pension problem have been an ongoing problem for years and Madigan has not come up with any viable solutions. When was the last time Illinois had a truly balanced budget?

Comment by A Rock Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:07 pm
As the data shows, everything is just fine and we should continue the Madigan status-quo.

Comment by Ahoy! Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:08 pm
On the bright side, Kane, Will and Kendall continue to grow, though not at the pace of 10 years ago. I think Kendall is still the percentage growth leader in the state, while Kane is the raw #’s growth leader.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:13 pm
The worrisome stat is for McHenry. It’s location suggests that it should be seeing growth like Kane or Kendall. However, it is down 1,417 since the 2010 Census. When an exurban county like McHenry isn’t growing that’s a red flag for the region. On a bright spot it is up last year for the first time this decade though only by 68 people.

Comment by muon Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:25 pm
That is not bright news. It’s people who can’t afford cook moving to kendall. Do you really think the country’s best and brightest want to live in Kendall county?

Comment by Tone Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:32 pm
Any wonder with the rate of shootings and crime splashing all over the headlines? Oh and High rent, scads of sub-par schools and so on. Even folks that are used to carrying a heavy load have a breaking point. Dysfunctional is the word that comes to mind most often.

Comment by the Cardinal Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 4:35 pm
===Do you really think the country’s best and brightest want to live in Kendall county?===

You’d be surprised who lives out in Kendall and what they do, and even how they impact lives.

Kendall is a great county.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 5:02 pm
“Here, if this trend continues”

I would posit that it ceases to be “good” housing at that point.

Can’t really get a 2000 manufactured home for $100k, much less the $80k that it’d have to be to account for the cost of a (very very cheap) city lot.

Dunno where is this hypothetical place with houses available for 20% below tract-building, non-Union labor employing, greenfield developer costs *with free land*, but remain curious.

Comment by Chris Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 5:45 pm
The answer is we need to give the unions more power to run things. And we need to give Madigan more power. And we need to raise taxes and fees on everyone. And we need more Democrats and to make everyone living here feel hopeless. Yeah.

Comment by Chris Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 7:30 pm
To make Chicago safe, we have to break the illegal drug yrade. But we won’t.

To stop the cycle of poverty we need to have young women delay their first child until they are adults. But we don’t know how to do that.

If it were not for illegal immigration, Chicago would have been losing population for years. 40 percent of CPS students ate Latino. That is a lot of immigration. (Not calling for mass deportation, just recognizing reality. )

In my dark moments, I don’t think we want a better world

Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 8:26 pm
Many reason why people are leaving - and they are - do not think that $50 a foot housing is the solution.

Comment by cannon649 Thursday, Mar 24, 16 @ 9:14 pm
Republican counties grow. Democratic counties lose population. ‘Nuff said.

Comment by Anon Friday, Mar 25, 16 @ 7:58 am