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* Way too many people are pointing to “fully autonomous cars of the future” to argue against mass transit projects. It’s a silly argument for a lot of reasons, including the fact that mass transit prevents city streets from being flooded with even more automobiles. And then there’s this, from MIT Technology Review…
BMW, Ford, and Uber have all recently said they plan to have “fully autonomous” cars ready to drive themselves on the road in 2021 (see “2021 May Be the Year of the Fully Autonomous Car”). Ford says its fleet of vehicles will lack steering wheels and offer a robotic taxi service.
But don’t expect to toss out your driver’s license in 2021. Five years isn’t long enough to create vehicles good enough at driving to roam extensively without human input, say researchers working on autonomous cars. They predict that Ford and others will meet their targets by creating small fleets of vehicles limited to small, controlled areas.
“Probably what Ford would do to meet their 2021 milestone is have something that provides low-speed taxi service limited to certain roads—and don’t expect it to come in the rain,” says Steven Shladover of the University of California, Berkeley, who has worked on automated driving for more than 20 years.
Shladover says many media outlets and members of the public are overinterpreting statements from Ford and other companies that are less specific than they appear. The dream of being able to have a car drive you wherever you want to go in the city, country, or continent remains distant, he says. “It ain’t going to be five years,” says Shladover. “The hype has gotten totally out of sync with reality.”
Alain Kornhauser, a Princeton professor and director of the university’s transportation program, also expects 2021’s vehicles to be very restricted. “By then we may be able to define [a] ‘fenced’ region of space where we can in fact let cars out there without a driver,” he says. “The challenge will be making that fenced-in area large enough so that it provides a valuable service.”
The other “challenge” for policymakers here and elsewhere will be fending off what are sure to be huge lobbying armadas for Google, Uber and the automakers which are going to demand that existing public transit and/or road funding be diverted or increased to construct those “fenced-in areas.”
[Hat tip: Duncan Black]
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:25 pm
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Road people are always arguing that investments in transit should instead be used for roads in order to add capacity and remove congestion; they completely miss the point that transit by its very definition removes congestion.
The transit community has long forgotten to involve the trucking industry in their advocacy for more transit investments. Nobody has more to gain by removing congestion then the trucking industry which wastes far too much time, energy, and fuel stuck in traffic.
Comment by Just Me Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:29 pm
Good points, Rich and love the Dippin’ Dots reference. I think 5 years is waaaay too optimistic for the advent of the autonomous car.
*hops on Segway*
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:30 pm
I would like to see how driverless cars maneuver in parking lots, stop and go driving, etc. And don’t there have to be sensors in the pavement as well?
Comment by Bogey Golfer Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:57 pm
The mass transit problem it is going to help with the most IMHO is going to be transporting the elderly from point to point.
If what was coming was the driver for mass transit there would be a lot more monorails, not that is a bad thing, I think monorails are awesome.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Fully automated automobiles also need the roads to be in near pristine condition with clearly marked lines separating lanes. A study I read said that 60% of the roads in this country would not be up to standard.
Besides, people like driving.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:09 pm
I will never trust “fully autonomous cars” or anything “fully autonomous.” First, I like driving and having control of my vehicle (and that also makes sure I’m responsible for my actions). There must always be a “manual override” ability for me to even consider such a vehicle.
Second, any “fully autonomous” gadget can be hacked and taken over by someone else. So again, won’t buy one if there is any conceivable chance a non-trusted third party can take over at any time, or the car gets a computer virus and causes a horrific accident. Think of the movie “I Robot” when the computers take over the “fully autonomous car” hooked into the central network.
I’m a bit old school, I suppose, as I love the “feel” of the road as I’m driving…and I won’t give it up.
Comment by unclesam Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:16 pm
There just isn’t the space in roads for cars, self-driving or not. Most of our urban expressways and arterial streets are at capacity now (and a lot of them are well past their capacity). Self-driving cars would help on the margin by eliminating the mistakes of human drivers (when the software works flawlessly), but the raw efficiency of using scarce road space of 60 people on a bus or 1000 people on a train can’t be beat by really anything else.
Nice picture that illustrates the concept (just think of rush hour in any congested area or Saturday afternoon anywhere in Chicago or the burbs)
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/amount-of-space-required-to-transport-people-by-car-bus-or-bicycle.html
Comment by Dan Johnson Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:22 pm
isn’t this the opportunity to merge the idea of toll lanes (e.g. the Stevenson) and autonomous cars? revenue source, upgraded lanes, self selected users. voila’
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:31 pm
A few years ago, I was involved in a flame war on the Institute of Transportation Engineers forums about this very issue. At that time, I made a rough estimate that by 2040, approximately 5% of the vehicles in the world will be “autonomous” vehicles.
Presently, the cars must use cameras and radar to track other vehicles, location within the lane and rely on GPS which has a civilian accuracy of about 30 feet.
The hype over these vehicles is just that, hype. On occasion, we may see one of these rich man’s toy driving around. But the full deployment through out the country is going to be a long way off.
There are too many obstacles that must be overcome before we see significant numbers on the roads. As others have stated, connected vehicles are hackable and have been hacked. Google “Jeep hack”. Weather such as snow or heavy rain will blind the sensors.
For those vehicles without a steering wheel, the machine ethics has yet to be worked out. Does the car run over the mother pushing the stroller or drive off the road and kill the passenger?
How do these vehicles interact with traffic signals? Does the car connect into the signal system and adapt the driving speed to the most optimal and hit all the green lights?
Already we have seen a fatal crash in a Tesla that was in automatic mode. The car didn’t recognize a truck turning in front of it and the car went under the trailer, shearing the roof off.
Traffic engineers are really bunched up about these vehicles. Some say we have to spend money now for something that isn’t even deployed. Personally, I think it is another vehicle in the traffic stream and no big deal.
Comment by Huh? Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:51 pm
I can’t wait to see the motorcycle gangs of the future, cruising along quietly on their autonomous Harleys, not swerving in and out of traffic and probably on their way to a quilt show.
Comment by A Jack Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:56 pm
Two observations about the dangers of fully autonomous automobiles:
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 2:57 pm
This creates an interesting rework of the toll road idea. create roades just for these vehicles and charge fees for the use…. maybe even get fancy with the solar powered roads and ways to charge recharge while driving…
Comment by Ghost Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:13 pm
The Ice Cream of the Future! I like driving, but not on congested freeways. I’m hopeful that the software will allow these vehicles to move at a faster pace during rush hour periods.
Comment by LTSW Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:41 pm
Dippin’ Dots!!! LOL.
Comment by crazybleedingheart Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:41 pm
I am expecting an intermediate step to a remotely controlled car, similar to the military drones of today. You could drive to the train station and the remote driver would drive the car back home. In the evening the reverse would happen.
Not expecting it soon. But maybe before we get a budget.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:43 pm
There are cars that can already drive themselves in a rudimentary fashion. These technologies serve as “helpers” at this point. Driving (when not done in overly congested and traffic clogged areas) is actually enjoyable….why would I want a car to drive for me ?
Comment by JDuc Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:45 pm
No steering wheel!? What are you supposed to drum with when ACDC or Stones are on the radio?
Comment by zatoichi Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:53 pm
Let the lawsuits begin!
Comment by Liberty Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 3:58 pm
Will the autonomous Beemers be programmed to drive like a jerk and take up 2 parking spots, as many of the “human interfaced” BMWs do?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 4:02 pm
One factor that could speed up robotic cars will be the auto insurance companies. Cars that are communicating with each other are less likely to crash into each other, so the rates will go up for completely non-self driving cars forcing people to buy more and more cars with autonomous features.
Because of regulatory and insurance questions, user-operated fully autonomous cars will come to market within the next five years, while driverless cars will remain a long ways off. Steven Shladover is right about that, but user-operated fully autonomous cars will have a big impact on our lives much faster. Moreover, if you crash the computer will know whether or not the autonomous features were engaged and drivers not using them will be penalized with much higher deductibles for crashes.
Comment by Rod Thursday, Sep 1, 16 @ 4:24 pm