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* Stu Rothenberg in the Washington Post…
Here is a scorecard of a few tiers of GOP-held House seats to watch over the next 2 1/2 months. They run from near certain Democratic takeovers to Democratic long-shot opportunities.
Should be a slam dunk. These Republican seats are likely to flip in November even if 2016 turns out to be a surprisingly disappointing year for Democrats. The districts are just too tough for GOP incumbents to hold in any presidential year.
Illinois 10, Bob Dold. Republican Dold is a strong incumbent who fits his district well. But he lost to Brad Schneider (D) in 2012 because of presidential turnout, and he will probably lose in another rematch. Of course, in a midterm with an unpopular Democratic president (like 2018?), don’t bet against Dold. He won in both 2010 and 2014.
* Schneider’s campaign then sent out an e-mail entitled: “ICYMI: Washington Post says Schneider a ‘Slam Dunk’ in IL-10.”
Rothenberg was not amused, pointing out that it wasn’t WaPo which made the claim, it was he who made the claim in WaPo.
* And then he continued…
In this case, “should” is an auxiliary verb that, according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, expresses “what is probable or expected,” not what will or must happen.
Unless someone has a problem understanding the meaning of the word “is” – and I certainly understand that some people do – my intentions were quite clear.
The point of the column was to lay out a series of expectations to allow readers to follow along during the final months of the campaign to see how the fight for the House was playing out, not to predict, and certainly not to guarantee, which candidates were going to win.
The Schneider campaign press release did include two full paragraphs from my column which included the correct “Should be a slam dunk” language and even noted Dold’s greater chances in a midterm election. But that hardly makes up for the press release’s headline or lead paragraph, both of which are misleading or worse.
* In other campaign news, here’s a press release…
After being the first candidate in the 12th congressional district race against Congressman Mike Bost to air television ads in Southern Illinois, Democratic candidate CJ Baricevic will continue his advertising campaign by being the first candidate to air ads in the St. Louis media market, communicating to voters in the Metro East section of the congressional district.
The thirty-second ad “Working Families,” which began airing in the Paducah media market last week will begin airing on Monday on St. Louis stations. See ad: https://youtu.be/I6jywmTHJGE
The two sides are reportedly spending about $70k for a week of ads.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 11:59 am
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[picturing Cheshire-cat grin on Rich’s face as he types “Stu stews”]
Nicely played. Is it quittin’ time yet?
Comment by Curious Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 12:01 pm
I don’t think CJ can afford to keep up this pace, at the end of last quarter the cash on hand totals were about a million for Bost to four hundred grand for CJ, but at least it sends a message to his potential donors that he’s going to battle. It’s a bit of a risky strategy but it’s one I’ve often counseled in favor of.
Comment by The Captain Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:06 pm
Yeah. I’d say Stu Rothenberg is pretty peeved. 10 Pinocchios is a lot of Pinocchios. He is a respected pundit/analyst that most candidates would try not to tick off. I imagine the Dold campaign will find a way to use Schneider’s mis-step on this to their advantage. Schneider’s campaign looks incompetent to send the email, anyway. How motivated will Brad’s supporters be to volunteer, GOTV, and donate if it’s already such a “slam dunk”?
Comment by Responsa Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 1:06 pm
Lots of abrevs
Comment by Boone's is Back Friday, Sep 2, 16 @ 3:13 pm