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* The New York Times takes a look at immigration policy, Donald Trump and congressional elections, with a focus on Republican Congressman Bob Dold…
Mr. Dold serves in perhaps the most heavily Democratic district represented by a Republican. Stretching along Lake Michigan, this relatively well-educated district sits among the affluent Chicago suburbs. Many of its Hispanic residents live in Waukegan, a blue-collar city toward the northern end of the district.
President Obama won commanding victories here in 2008 and 2012; Mr. Trump’s popularity hangs dismally somewhere between lake-effect snow and ketchup on hot dogs.
About 59,000 Latinos are eligible to vote in Mr. Dold’s district, making up 11.2 percent of the electorate — a key group given that Mr. Dold beat Brad Schneider, a former Democratic congressman who is challenging him again this year, by less than 5,000 votes in 2014. That year, 7.37 percent of those who voted were Hispanic — casting more than 13,500 votes — according to numbers provided by Mr. Dold’s staff. […]
“There’s no way in the world that we are going to send 11 million people out of the United States,” Mr. Dold said. “Many of them — most of them, I would argue — are more American than their next-door neighbors, because many of them are our next-door neighbors.” […]
“As much as they might want to distance themselves from their own party, it says ‘Bob Dold, Republican’ on the ballot,” [Jill Normington, a Washington-based Democratic strategist advising Mr. Schneider] said. “And that is a liability in 2016, not an asset.”
The Latino problem is huge for Dold. No question about it…
#NEW National GE Among Latino's:
Clinton 75% (+64)
Trump 11%@NewLatinoVoice @LatinoUSAhttps://t.co/BlHrazgtRw… pic.twitter.com/6BO3cgIqXi— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 7, 2016
I’d venture a guess that Trump’s Latino numbers are even worse in CD 10.
* However, it’ll be pretty tough to convince true independents (and that district has a ton of them) that Trump is a mainstream Republican allied with Dold because Trump is such an obvious outlier. Yeah, he’s the official nominee, but lots of party elders (including Dold, our own US Senator and our governor) are actively running away from him.
While not a perfect comparison, I think Rod Blagojevich was much the same. He was such a total Martian that linking Democrats to him was almost impossible. If I recall correctly, it was only done once with success (Jay Hoffman, but other factors played into his loss).
The national Democrats were convinced a few months ago that Trump’s unpopularity and his fight with the state’s popular Republican governor and its incumbent US Senator would help them win Ohio’s US Senate race, but that isn’t happening and they’re moving money elsewhere. Why? Partly because the Democratic candidate isn’t very good, but also because Trump’s bitter feud with Gov. Kasich and Sen. Portman proved to voters that their guys are not “Trump Republicans.” The same basic scenario played out here when RRB loudly feuded with Madigan and other Democrats.
I still believe Dold is the underdog (and that Latino vote is a major reason why), but he might be able to pull this thing out.
* Even so, that ketchup on hot dogs line is restaurant quality, as Oswego Willy would say.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 10:57 am
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It’s the New York Times.
Meaning no.
Dold is on his own. He won twice and could very well lose twice. Trump didn’t matter before and doesn’t matter now.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:06 am
Unfortunately, he already has and will continue to.
Comment by Will Trump sink Dold? Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:11 am
To the Post,
That district, bring “No Trump” is far better than saying nothing about Trump, and I think Rich is on to something with the Rod analogy and Democrats, given the Lindsey Graham and John Kasich Republicans that aren’t just distancing themselves from Trump, but outright denouncing Trump, some like Sen. Graham almost consistently, in real time, denouncing before the comment/policy can be digested.
It would be foolish to think, given the national sentiment on Trump, and that district’s history, that Dold is the favorite. It’s almost been a bad position to be the sitting congressman in these past races. The incumbent has faced the last 2 years worth of negativity, far more than Trump could stain Dold with? for sure.
The more Kasich and Graham Dold is, the better chance Dold has in a district willing to see “everything that was old is new again”.
To the ketchup-hot dog,
Talk about capturing something, yeah, that’s as good as it gets right there…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:16 am
Dold has done a good job of defining himself. If Trump was only losing the 10th District by 10 points, he could swim against the stream. But the tide is too big - sorry VM Trump matters.
Comment by siriusly Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:17 am
Interesting to hear Dold referred to as the underdog. Normally I would be more up on this race as I have always been more focused on local elections rather than national. Not this year. I admit I am consumed by the presidential campaigns. And after knocking on some doors I know I am not alone. Voters only have so much tolerance for election information and with the presidential sucking so much of it up I would guess that benefits incumbents like Dold.
Comment by Original Rambler Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:19 am
Presidential year turn out will sink Dold, with or without Trump.
Comment by Daniel Plainview Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:21 am
Dold running away from Trump? He’s raising money to “Beat Hillary” tomorrow night in Green Oaks:
http://lakecountyrepublicans.com/files/2016/08/GOP-Distillery-Event-Invitation-to-upload.pdf
Comment by lake county Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:26 am
You are saying the Latinos will vote for the candidate backed by Trump? I don’t that will happen.
Comment by Mama Retired Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:31 am
MUSTARD ONLY– ketchup should be banned in all chicago area places that hot dogs are sold. Dold’s chances of staying in office was in the primary–the Dem primary if Schneider would have been beaten, that HP Mayor would have been much easier to beat for Dold. Schneider has $ and name ID
Comment by 10th ward Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:34 am
Trump is hated by minorities up here in Lake County. Quite a few Republicans have told me they’ll stay home this November. Doesn’t look good for Dold.
Comment by Wensicia Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:36 am
I’d like to praise some Republicans for putting country over party–those who are doing it for not only political purposes in this election year. Many have rejected Trump. I don’t follow Dold/Schneider, but I strongly agree with the sentiments in Mr. Dold’s statements.
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:38 am
That’s a real retail politics district. Dold is resilient and he’s been popular there. Schneider is a smarmy creep. The party delivers D victories there, the candidate delivers R victories there, going back to Porter, and then Kirk.
It takes a “lot” to motivate the D voters there. Like having Barack Obama on the ballot. I think Dold pulls this one out by about 4%. Schneider will help defeat himself. He is not a friend to the Latino voters.
Comment by A guy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:38 am
If any district swings loosely from the top of the ticket in a Presidential race, it’s this one.
Comment by walker Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:48 am
The problem that Dold has is the same problem that all moderate Republicans face. On the one hand he needs the turnout and support of the Trump Republicans to win, at the same time he has to denounce the very candidate they identify with.
Comment by pundent Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:51 am
Dold has run as a Tea Party darling, as a moderate, and now as a liberal. The ultimate political chameleon, and he will pay for it.
Comment by Formerpol Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:52 am
“Schneider is a smarmy creep.”
Gravitas!
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 11:58 am
I like ketchup on my hot dogs. And raw onion. Nothing else.
Comment by JoanP Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:06 pm
A Guy: This probably isn’t your District, so I would respectfully ask you to check your sources.
I know them both, and neither is either “smarmy” or a “creep.”
Comment by walker Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:10 pm
From Wensicia’s post:
“Quite a few Republicans have told me they’ll stay home this November.”
***
This I do not get, and it’s coming from all sides, Repubs, Dems, Indies. This is not a primary election, it’s the General, and there are choices on the down ballot. If you don’t want to vote for P or VP, fine. But I’m sure there are other races and possibly questions on the ballot that you would feel comfortable voting for. For goodness sake, you aren’t taking a test where if you don’t fill in all the bubbles for every question you flunk. Why throw away your right to vote?
Comment by Anon221 Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:11 pm
Walk, no pun intended here, but I’ve “walked” that district a number of times. I’ll concede I was more active in the old 10th than the newer one, but I have been there and worked it. For Porter, for Kirk, and for Dold. I’d tell you I like Dold the most of the three. Until Schneider came along, Seals was our target, and I found him to be a pretty decent guy. Charming in fact. I’ve met Schneider twice, so I don’t know him like you must, but on both occasions he was pretty oily. That was my impression. I was kind of glad we weren’t dealing with Seals.
I concede you likely know him much better. I hope you know that while I’m a partisan GOP, I do have plenty of admiration for plenty of Dem members at all levels of government. Schneider struck me as a very fake guy on the occasions I met him personally and from a distance at events where we both were but I didn’t come into direct contact.
No worries. Mr. JM concludes that I’m the smarmy one. Can’t please everyone.
Comment by A guy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 12:59 pm
– Can’t please everyone.–
Who were you trying to please with childish name-calling? Your guy, Trump?
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:29 pm
Some Republican candidates may be running from Trump, but not the Lake County Republican Party, whose name is well-displayed on local “Trump” yardsigns.
The more those signs go up, the less distance exists between Dold, or Kirk, and Trump. And it’s best when a voter at their door hadn’t noticed. Show them the photo of those signs and their jar drops. Happening all over the 10th as we speak.
Comment by Springfieldish Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 1:49 pm
==Who were you trying to please with childish name-calling?==
Trying to please you Anonymous. Using that moniker always intimidates, impresses, and compels me to do my best. Please dude.
Comment by A guy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:19 pm
==- Springfieldish==
I agree with your comments Sfd, but among the things I’m experiencing in the field is that people aren’t talking about Trump/Hillary at the door. It’s as if they’re avoiding the discussion. It’s weird, but it’s what’s happening. I’m not sure how much that one affects the others. It will with turnout of course (one way or the other?) but it feels like they’ve separated this race from all the others.
Comment by A guy Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 2:53 pm
Springfieldish — exactly, which is what makes this keynote guest decision even more shocking:
http://lakecountyrepublicans.com/files/2016/08/GOP-Distillery-Event-Invitation-to-upload.pdf
Comment by lake county Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 3:12 pm
For all of you Dems hoping R’s stay home - I have one word for you. Scalia. The vote turn out will be HUGE because the next president will appoint a court we will be stuck with for 40 years. Not saying Trump will win but stop thinking the Senate goes D. Plenty of us are thinking the same thing. Hold the Senate so you will see lots of vote splitting
Comment by Sue Friday, Sep 9, 16 @ 4:21 pm