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* The Hill…
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump swiped at vulnerable GOP Sen. Mark Kirk (Ill.) on Thursday night, saying it’s Kirk’s fault that he’s facing a loss in his reelection fight since he didn’t get on board with the nominee.
Speaking at a town hall event in Sandown, N.H., Trump was asked about the Republican hold-outs who have refused to support him; earlier that day, 30 former GOP lawmakers announced their steadfast opposition to his candidacy. […]
“I guess there’s a gentleman in Illinois who’s not doing very well,” Trump said, referencing Kirk. “He was actually taking out ads against me. I said, are you sure he’s a Republican? Maybe he’s a Democrat. He’s not doing well but hey, that’s his problem. He wasn’t for me and that’s for political reasons.” […]
Still, Trump predicted Republicans would maintain their slim majority in the Senate, and took credit for a coattails effect he claimed would ensure the GOP maintains power in the upper chamber.
“If you look at what’s going on — the other day I saw very interesting — the announcer said Donald Trump is having a very positive effect on the Republicans,” Trump said. “The Republicans are going to hold. They’re doing terrifically well, far better than anyone thought, and we’re going to win some states that never in a million years people thought we’d do well.”
Yeah, well, his coattails aren’t so great in Illinois as a whole.
* Sen. Kirk’s campaign has released a new poll and specifically mentions in the memo how much Kirk is outperforming Trump…
GS Strategy Group surveyed 600 likely voters, statewide, in Illinois. The survey was conducted October 4-5, 2016. The margin of error for the survey was +/- 4.0% at the 95% confidence level.
United States Senate Ballot
Our findings indicate a much tighter battle in the race for United States Senate than the most recently released numbers from our opponent. As has been the case for over a year, the race remains a statistical tie and inside the margin of error. While Congresswoman Duckworth maintains a lead over Senator Kirk, he is well within striking distance of her. Duckworth’s inability to capitalize on the Democratic strength in the Presidential ballot underscores voter apprehension toward her candidacy and provides a path to victory for Senator Kirk.
Key Highlights
* Race remains a statistical tie – consistent with nearly every other public poll.
* Kirk is outperforming Trump by a net of 13 points.
* Duckworth continues to significantly underperform the top of the ticket.
According to the poll, Hillary Clinton is winning Illinois 50-33, while Kirk is trailing 41-37.
* Normally, candidates wouldn’t release a poll showing them trailing in October by four points. But with the new Paul Simon Institute poll showing Duckworth ahead by 14 points, the Kirk campaign needs to stop people from assuming this thing is a complete lost cause.
Also, according to the Kirk campaign, the NRSC is running TV ads in the Chicago, Rockford, Springfield and Peoria media markets. They claim those ads show the national folks haven’t given up hope.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 9:29 am
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Another poll that has the incumbent below 40, and it’s his own poll.
Comment by The Captain Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 9:35 am
“He’s not doing well but hey, that’s his problem.” - Seems to apply to both of them.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 9:36 am
I understand their need to release this, but boasting of a “Path to victory” 30 days out seems ominous. At this point, that path better be paved.
Comment by WSJ Paywall Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 9:51 am
While I am inclined to believe that Kirk disowning Trump, meeting with Garland, and framing his campaign as if he leans left are all solely done for political reasons (and with the blessing of his comrades), they were still the right things to do. Motivations matter, but not as much as simply doing what’s best.
Ask Ted Cruz.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 9:52 am
Yeah, it’s amazing how all those vulnerable Senate GOP incumbents are grabbing on to Trump’s “coattails”; cutting spots with him, campaigning all over their states with him.
He gets mentioned less than Lord Voldemort by embattled GOP incumbents.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:01 am
In Illinois, the drop off of Duckworth from Clinton is more concerning than Kirk outperforming Trump.
However…
A Republican statewide elected in Illinois polling below 40% (not 50%, that 4-0, 40%) with less than 40 days out… that’s not a winning roadmap.
When Rauner “returns the favor” then I’ll think differently.
Even Paulie gave Heny token cash before he turned his back on him. Just saying.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:04 am
I guess train wrecks attract onlookers.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:07 am
“[Kirk’s] not doing well but hey, that’s his problem.”
Possibly the first 100% true statement from Mr. Trump.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:24 am
Establishment GOP are urging people to skip the presidential race this year so in two years they will gain even more seating in the US congress and the US senate. A Hillary presidency also will help governor Rauner in 2018. It makes sense that the establishment GOP should take a dive on trump.
But two can play that game trump supporters could take a dive on down ticket establishment candidates that are supportin him.
Comment by Publius Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:35 am
Oops are not supporting him
Comment by Publius Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:37 am
If Kirk endorsed Trump, I strongly believe that Duckworth would’ve won this months ago already.
Comment by Clark Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:41 am
With Trump it’s all about him, all the time.
Kirk’s losing because he doesn’t support Trump. Other Republicans are doing well because of Trump.
Comment by Sir Reel Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:49 am
Trump takes a swipe at everybody.
Hardly news.
Comment by Federalist Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:49 am
“the announcer said Donald Trump is having a very positive effect on the Republicans”. Please specify the announcer. Fox News and Brietbart don’t count.
Yeah, them ain’t coattails in Illinois, they’re lead weights.
Comment by The_Equalizer Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 10:53 am
Trump is revolting but I am not sure he is wrong that the only reason Kirk isn’t with Trump is for political reasons.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 11:11 am
@wordslinger
I think you’ll appreciate this lil quiz:
http://www.ew.com/article/2016/07/21/who-said-it-donald-trump-voldemort
Comment by Chicago_Downstater Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 11:52 am
Any distance from Trump is a bonus.
Comment by burbanite Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 12:26 pm
If Kirk had run the caliber of race he ran in 2000 or 2008, he’d be easily headed to his usual 2-3 point win. I’m not sure where the other 7 pts went and why he’s had so many missteps.
Comment by Shore Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 1:38 pm
This race hasn’t changed much. I think it will be heavily undervoted, but will break to Kirk by 2 points. (Go with what you know)
Comment by Terrible Towel Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 3:06 pm
The unearthing of Trump’s 2005 comments about how to, um, “seduce” women will go down in history as the most, to be gentle, “inappropriate,” comments made by a major party candidate in the modern era.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 4:06 pm
Illinois has not carried for a Republican presidential candidate since Bush 41 in 1988, so I cannot fault Trump for performing poorly here.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 4:08 pm
“Illinois has not carried for a Republican presidential candidate since Bush 41 in 1988, so I cannot fault Trump for performing poorly here.”
To be fair, look who we’ve had to pick from….
Comment by 618er Friday, Oct 7, 16 @ 7:40 pm