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* Bernie…
A poll in the 99th House District commissioned by Democratic challenger TONY DelGIORNO has him within five points of Rep. SARA WOJCICKI JIMENEZ, R-Leland Grove.
The automated telephone poll of 617 voters taken Oct. 6-7 by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, North Carolina, has Jimenez with 43 percent to 38 percent for DelGiorno and 19 percent unsure. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points. The firm works for many Democrats.
Respondents self-identified as 44 percent Republicans, 28 percent Democrats and another 28 percent independent or with another party. Just a quarter have a labor union member in their household.
DelGiorno, of Springfield, said his campaign got results about 7 p.m. Oct. 7 — just hours after news broke of GOP presidential candidate DONALD TRUMP’s 2005 lewd comments about women. Thus, it appears that the big story of the weekend probably didn’t affect the numbers much, if at all. The poll had Trump leading Democratic candidate HILLARY CLINTON 46-41, with 7 percent for someone else and 5 percent undecided.
Asked about their views on the candidates in the 99th, the tally on Jimenez was 35 percent favorable, 33 percent unfavorable and 31 percent not sure. DelGiorno’s numbers were 31 percent favorable, 27 percent unfavorable and 42 percent not sure.
Mitt Romney won that district 57-41 four years ago, so most assumed this would be a straight uphill climb for the Democrat DelGiorno. But there are tons of AFSCME members in the 99th. And it pains me to no end to write this, but we’re talking about a white-dominated Downstate district in the Year of Trump’s Wall and a legislator with a Latino married name. Ugh, that was hard to say, especially since I live in her district and I’ve known Sara for a very long time. But there’s just no getting away from it this year. The hate has been ginned up like we haven’t seen in a long while.
Even so, DelGiorno’s got a ways to go before he wins and he doesn’t yet have the cash.
Also, I’ve noticed a stark difference in polling results from both sides this year. It could be the different turnout models they’re using. So, maybe this PPP poll is just way off. We’ll all know for sure in less than a month.
* But there may also be something else going on. FiveThirtyEight published a study of every county in the country this week. As we all know by now, Hillary Clinton is doing better than previous Democrats with minorities and college-educated whites, while Donald Trump is doing better than previous Republicans with non-college-educated whites…
To get a handle on how these shifts could affect the electoral landscape, we modeled how many of Romney’s votes came from college-educated whites and minorities and how many of Obama’s votes came from non-college-educated whites in each state, county and congressional district. The difference between these two vote totals, shown in the map above, can tell us where Clinton and Trump have the most potential to build on 2012.
Then we went a step further: How would the 2016 map look if one out of every five whites without a college degree who voted for Obama in 2012 defected to Trump and if one out of every five non-whites and college-educated whites who voted for Romney in 2012 switched to Clinton? (Why one out of five? It’s a somewhat arbitrary number but represents a realistic shift of these groups, according to polls released over the past few months.) […]
To gauge Clinton’s and Trump’s upside potential, we began by reverse-engineering the 2012 electorate in each state, county and congressional district. To do this, we used population data from the Census Bureau’s 2012 American Community Survey and voter turnout data from its 2012 voting and registration report to estimate the demographic breakdown of the electorate within each geographic area by five groups: college-educated whites, non-college-educated whites, African-Americans, Latinos, and Asians/others.
Then, using using data from 2012 and 2008 exit polls, we estimated Obama’s and Romney’s levels of support from each group within each state. We applied those support levels within each geographic area and adjusted each subgroup’s vote totals proportionally to fit the actual reported votes for each state, county and district. […]
Finally, we used these estimates to calculate, in each state, county and district, the share of college-educated whites and minorities who voted for Romney and the share of non-college-educated whites who voted for Obama. Our “Vote Swap” scenario depicts what would happen if 20 percent of each of those groups switched parties in 2016.
* The 99th is solely within Sangamon County…
This is imperfect because the county is obviously not wholly within the 99th and the bulk of the county’s African-American population is in a different House district. Also, I just have no idea if 538’s thesis is sound. But it gives you an idea of what the 2016 shift could be and may help explain DelGiorno’s polling numbers.
* Do you see anything else in the map that stands out for you?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:05 am
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If I’m Labor… I’d be more “interested” than anything about how tight this appears to be.
Dunno if Labor can make THE difference, but…
“Why take a chance… ”
Two in five in Labor… down to 1 in 5… maybe 1 in 6… does that help in that district? Something to think about(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 6:56 am
According to the 538 map Bradley, Smiddy and Skoog are being hurt by Trump. Yingling is not seeing any backlash of Trumpism and Bryant is being helped by him. That and the entire nation appears to be a lathered-up hot mess of angry voters.
Comment by Big Muddy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 6:58 am
“…with a Latino married name.” is the opposition doing something with that? or are you speculating?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 7:11 am
As I said in the Roskam thread yesterday, this 538 county map as far as Illinois helped me better understand just why Roskam is so torn on whether to support Trump. Also explains why Rodney Davis was the only Downstate un-endorser among Downstate GOP stated Trump supporters.
In the Davis race, makes me wish the DCCC had not gone so crazy trying to unseat him in a mid-term last cycle and actually invested in the race this time around.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 7:29 am
Maybe Tony is a better candidate. wasn’t Jimenez appointed by the governor even when the local party wanted Noll? You didn’t mention that as a possible reason. Maybe Tony has knocked on more doors.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 7:29 am
Good stuff from Nate silver, as usual. But if the Dems score an upset in this District it’s going to be more about Rauner being a drag than the College educated versus non-college educated demographics.
Comment by Tommy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 7:52 am
==Maybe Tony is a better candidate. wasn’t Jimenez appointed by the governor even when the local party wanted Noll? You didn’t mention that as a possible reason. Maybe Tony has knocked on more doors.==
Tony doesn’t strike me as the door walking type…
Comment by so.... Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:02 am
It’s an automated poll.So she is probably behind.
Comment by David Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:10 am
===… it’s going to be more about Rauner being a drag than the College educated versus non-college educated demographics===
The Rauner Factor in very narrow, isolated district in the micro, districts where Rauner governing decisions and Rauner votes, be they Yellow or Red when it goes against constituents will be so difficult, at first blush, to mine out.
As McCann became, evolved, and in the end, the Labor rallying cry of “enough is enough”, right now districts aided by Trump and districts where Trump is downright abysmal with women, the overall turnout model begins with the POTUS expected turnout universe, and in those numbers, how many Trump voters stay Trump and continue that thinking down-ballot?
The other side, Trump dragging and losing districts, ginned up by those abysmal numbers with women, can Democrats ride that wave all the way down to GA seats.
I’m walking this around the barn as I am because Rauner folks, loses or big loses, will, rightly or not, point to Trump first, last, and often, and ignore Rauner’s incredible influence as governor and “banker” in these races…
… and Rauner folks would be as completely right, as they would be completely wrong… at first blush.
I’m all about the micro, and using the overall big picture(s) to move those things into the unique micro district parameters. The post-mortems will have to drill into…
“Trump-women-Rauner-Madigan-Controlled Turnouts”
I actually have a great deal of respect and admiration for Rep Jimenez. My issues have been voting as she as done considering her district and the local GOP issues and history too. It can’t be said she doesn’t work hard, or tries to be as effective as a freshman in the minority can be. Huge ask for anyone.
But, you can’t sign a ridiculous letter to Labor, and the message was to ALL Labor, showing “support” then vote as you do, considering that district.
I still think Rep. Jimenez will win, but this poll has to put Labor and Democrats on notice, and can enough of a push make a difference specifically “there” under these new set of voter parameters, and Trump, and Rauner?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:12 am
This is a conservative voter district of union government employees. They will support conservative candidates who support AFSCME. That is why Trump isn’t bombing there, but Jimenez struggles.
It’s not because of evil racist sexist demons secretly harbored within these voters.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:18 am
I decided to vote against Jimenez when she voted against the mandatory arbitration bill. If she’ll vote for the Governor and against her district based on the flimsy arguments against the bill that the opponents gave, no way can she be trusted to ever do the right thing. I’m going to vote for more democrats this November than I have in the past 20 years combined.
Comment by Whatever Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:28 am
You might be a redneck if you don’t vote for Hillary?
Comment by Rabid Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:30 am
McCann lost Sangamon county. DelGiorno has an uphill battle.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:30 am
Dems can certainly ride 19 point swings such as occured in the latest Wisconsin poll that started before last Friday.
Comment by David Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:30 am
Willy is right on the Rauner factor. I live in DelGiorno’s area and while I’ve supported Republicans - I’m supporting him due to the fact that his opponent was handpicked by the Governor.
She was reasonably well know before marriage as a reported on WICS 20, so she’s got name recognition in her own right. And, frankly, I couldn’t care less who she’s married to - his ethnicity is irrelevant to any informed discussion.
On a somewhat related matter - the Republican party has been bombarding constituent in that area with mailers connecting DelGiorno and Speaker Madigan. I’ve seen about 5 in the last couple of weeks. They are clearly concerned.
Comment by Name Withheld Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:36 am
IMHO, Trump will do well in Sangamon County and that helps down ballot people like Jimenez.
Remember, this is Durbin’s home county and he was crushed by Oberweis in the last election. Heavy, heavy republican area.
Comment by Piece of Work Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:38 am
Not sure what the GOP is doing in terms of mail in the 99th. Like others, we have been getting slammed with the Tony is Madigan’s puppet stuff. We are a solid “D House” and have been for years.
Comment by Give Me A Break Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:43 am
I believe the race in the 99th is mostly a result of Rauner’s control over Jimenez’s votes. If Jimenez would have been the advocate for public employees that Poe had been over the years, DelGiorno wouldn’t have a chance. I’ve talked to lifelong Republicans who are canvassing for DelGiorno, concerned about their livelihood. While my left leaning self finds that encouraging, the demise of the pro-labor Central Illinois Republican is, I think, a great loss for people in this and other similar parts of the state. Still, since Jimenez appears to be solidly with Rauner in his quest to destroy public and private unions, it makes the choice pretty clear for a lot of union people, even those who were historically Republicans.
Comment by AC Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:45 am
Q: Do you see anything else in the map that stands out for you?
A: DuPage County with a +14 swing towards Clinton, following by Lake County (+12 for Clinton) and Kane County (+10 for Clinton)
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:45 am
Her problem is Rauner, not her last name. Unless you believe that AFSCME union members are closed minded xenophobes.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:47 am
If more dirt leaks about Trump maybe more Republicans will decide not to vote in this election.
Comment by Mal Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:48 am
Will the diehard trump supporters vote for Rauner/GOP establishment candidates down ticket after Rauner’s abandonment of trump. Not only abandonment but he is asking people to vote for the Green Party candidate so they can field a governor candidate to split dem votes in 2018
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:48 am
I wonder how much the supposed call from some Trump supporters to vote Trump and ignore the downballot candidates might impact Illinois?
Comment by Jimbo2 Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:50 am
-OW- is right, in this case it is the micro.
I voted for Poe in the past but wouldn’t again. I would have been almost a sure thing for Sara but her various votes have shown me she is bought and paid for by Rauner, so Tony will get my vote.
As others have said, I’ll definitely be voting a very split ticket this time and supporting a lot more Democrats than ever before at the local level. Definitely not following the typical pattern for my voter profile … and I suspect I’m not the only one.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:53 am
Any idea on the percentage of those polled were cell phones? I feel like that is one of those things that often gets over looked.
If DelGiorno is only 5 points behind Jimenez prior to Trump’s groping comments becoming public (says the poll was finished last Friday, likely before the comments surfaced) I’d be thinking that Labor might take even bigger aim at Jimenez. If the internal polling of the DNC has Trump being so toxic that they think it’s feasible Hillary can manage to make Georgia a 2016 battleground, one would think that down ballot GOP races in overtly blue Illinois could be in for a shock.
Comment by The Muse Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:54 am
pow, Trump doing well will help a candidate named Jimenez? That’s rather counter-intuitive.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:56 am
I had no idea the east side of Springfield was split into two parts (the 87th, Lincoln) and (the 96th, Decatur), in my opinion this is clear evidence of institutional racism.
Comment by Washington Park Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 8:58 am
VanillaMan - “Unless you believe that AFSCME union members are closed minded xenophobes.”
I don’t think that’s what Rich was eluding to at all.
I’m not originally from Springfield - collar county kid through and through - and there is a noticeable difference in the kind language some folks from the area are comfortable with compared to elsewhere. In a year when the GOP nominee is threatening to build a wall and make our southern neighbor build it, yeah, that’s not an unreasonable statement to make that it could have an affect on how some folks might vote.
Comment by The Muse Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:00 am
After she loses Trump can give her a job building the wall
Comment by Rabid Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:06 am
Rich-
Poll David Olsen’s district. Check out the differential in DuPage County.
Comment by John-on-the-spot Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:08 am
All the collar counties appear to be swinging toward Clinton. DuPage, Kane and Kendall are typically GOP strongholds.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:13 am
=All the collar counties appear to be swinging toward Clinton.=
Do you have anything (numbers) to base that on? Because, if true, that could mean serious trouble for the ILGOP. The collar counties, especially DuPage and McHenry, have been strong for the ILGOP.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:18 am
Tony is working his tail off and his GOTV operation will be massive. Lots of boots on the ground to “deliver DelGiorno”.
And for all of you singing Sara’s praises…Yes, she is a very nice person, but a terrible candidate. Seems very uncomfortable, doesn’t know how to work a room, follows Rep. Butler around like a puppy dog at all events and actually comes off aloof when I think she’s just a little shy. And her Rauner ties are NOT helpful in this district. Trump will definitely win here, not sure if Sara will weather the storm.
Comment by FIREDup! Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:22 am
I wouldn’t write Trump’s obituary quite yet. In today’s RCP poll, Rasmussen has him up in a 4 way poll.
HRC has not had a great week either and more negative info comes out daily about her.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:25 am
I know this is more of an anecdote, I know 5 houses on my block that would normally deliver 10 Republican votes. Tho houses are solid for Trump. One house is split. Two will vote for Clinton.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:31 am
-Anonymous @ 9:25 am -
You think Trump is going to win Illinois? SERIOUSLY??
Comment by FIREDup! Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:32 am
I’m not really “Labor” but….I like and respect her and probably would have voted for her once if she had run on her own.
But like other commenters have also pointed out she was appointed by Trump (er…Rauner) and quickly shown herself to be more aligned with him and his tactics than with I think are the best interests of our district.
Comment by Bleugrass Boy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:33 am
….so I’m voting for Tony DelGiorno
Comment by Bleugrass Boy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:34 am
Trump is pulling out of VA and is losing ground by the second in PA.
Tim Kaine is probably a big factor in VA.
The Electoral College path for Trump continues to be “precarious” and that’s me being… “polite”.
To the Post,
===And it pains me to no end to write this, but we’re talking about a white-dominated Downstate district in the Year of Trump’s Wall and a legislator with a Latino married name. Ugh, that was hard to say, especially since I live in her district and I’ve known Sara for a very long time. But there’s just no getting away from it this year. The hate has been ginned up like we haven’t seen in a long while.===
That’s really good. That’s what the drilling down after, in post-mortem, “Trump” in this new POTUS voting universe, and now while trying to win an election, and after the results are tallied and exit polls are analyzed, Rich brings into focus, albeit a painful focus, what the micro might face, and why, and a name specifically in that micro possibly bringing a different result than even a neighboring district.
Trump voters and the seething anger could frame the “why” far different then we’ve ever seen this time around.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:35 am
==it pains me to no end to write this, but we’re talking about a white-dominated Downstate district in the Year of Trump’s Wall and a legislator with a Latino married name.==
Easy solution for Sara. Disavow Trump.
Still waiting…
Comment by Handle Bar Mustache Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:35 am
Jimenez mailings are done by the ILGOP that was recently purchased by Rauner like a corporate takeover. She was bought and paid for when she took the job as the First Lady’s chief of staff for $100,000.00. The First Lady has a full time job outside of the state so what did Jimenez really do as chief of staff.
People are tired of insider politics where political families get all the jobs and promotions.
Tony worked his way out of poverty and is not part of any political machine, he has my support.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:44 am
Interesting that Anonymous focuses on one out of a large number of polls. Most of which show large increases for Hillary. Also one of the most volatile. Showing Trump up a week ago, then Hillary up now Trump. Finally, a poll with a large Republican house effect.
Comment by Jimbo2 Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:45 am
firedup—I’m not saying Trump will win IL. Far from it, HRC will easily take the state.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:58 am
McLean County going for Clinton with a 12 potential upside. That is assuming that with two universities and a community college the higher educated will vote for Clinton. There were a lot of new voters registered for the primary election at ISU. That I would see as a Bernie Sanders effect. However, how many of those will vote for Clinton remains to be seen.
Comment by Nearly Normal Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 9:58 am
What qualifications does Mrs Jimenez posses specifically? I googled it but there was nothing.
Comment by Trolling Troll Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:02 am
I see where Rich is going with the last name comment, and I will slightly agree. With the caveat that her opponents name is also Ethnic. It’s a nasty group of voters we have this year.
I’m not in this district, but I think she’s done herself a great disservice by being so much in support of Rauner and basically flipping off her state worker or union citizens. My rep/senator are running unopposed and I left that race blank for the same reason.
RNUG - I voted early last night and am now officially a RINO. Did not cast 1 GOP vote.
Comment by Thoughts Matter Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:10 am
Any information on early voting trends? According to this, N Carolina absentee ballots by registered Republicans is way down. http://www.insight-us.org/blog/ncs-2016-voter-turnout-through-10-october/
Comment by a drop in Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:12 am
===According to this, N Carolina absentee ballots by registered Republicans is way down.===
Trump crosses many “traditional” lines. Usually that’s a good benchmark, no question, now it may literally come down to exactly where those requests are coming, geographically, to give “Trump-Clinton” context. Maybe. Ugh.
(Tips cap to - RNUG - and - Name Withheld -)
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:18 am
===With the caveat that her opponents name is also Ethnic===
Italian and Irish surnames seem to work pretty well here.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:21 am
I never have voted a straight ticket. Miss Topinka dearly. I am volunteering to help Tony. Esp. When Sara said its the party who mailed the mailers. I check out what I pass out and wont pass it out if it looks slimy. So if my name was on something I def would want to know but if you are paying for it you can’t complain I guess. Btw I also contacted Sam McCann to help his campaign. This is how democracy is supposed to work.
Comment by Present Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:21 am
I can be added to the list of normally dependable R voters that will be splitting my ballot this fall. Only D I’ve ever voted for has been Jesse White.
I’ll be voting for DelGiorno and Mendoza in the Comptroller race. Things with Rauner have gone from bad to worse, so I’ll be voting against his appointees this fall and most certainly be voting for whoever the D is in 2018 against Rauner.
Comment by Wiseguy97 Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:23 am
I am not sure any poll in this race is accurate. I live outside this district and have received call after call, from what appears to be a Republican poll, on this race. I have received at least 10 calls. I answer the question different each time. If the pollster cannot figure out the district I don’t have much faith in the poll.
Comment by I wonder... Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:26 am
Rich is 100% correct. Libri, Palazzolo, DelGiorno, Pecori, Fulgenzi, Davlin and even Rep. Jimenez’s maiden name (Wojcicki) are well known names and have never been much of an impediment in Sangamon County.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:31 am
@JSMill, if you go to the referenced map and move your cursor over DuPage, 28% of Romney voters in ‘12 are favoring HRC; whereas 14% of Obama voters in ‘12 are supporting Trump. A 14% potential uptick for Clinton. The numbers are 10% in Kane and 6% in Kendall.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:34 am
@Bogey Golfer- Many thanks.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:42 am
OW- with our Council 31 phone bank software it allows us to weed out the bad phone numbers, etc and place the AFSCME’s we didn’t get ahold of, busy, etc back into the pool to be tried again.
Four AFSCME call centers- (in theater, not
Chicago)
2 AFL-CIO Call centers- (also not Chicago)
(These are just the ones I personally know about)
Fully staffed
Calling until EVERY AFSCME has been talked too.
Honestly, and I’m not being cocky here because there’s too much on the line and it could go either way, but from personal experience calling her district,
We’re got the ratio down to 1-25
In the three nights I recently did I only had 2 people saying they were voting differently than we suggested.
Comment by Honeybear Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:43 am
Libri, Palazzolo: Both lost races for Springfield mayor and the city makes up a lot of the 99th. They can win county wide, not so much in the city.
Comment by Give Me A Break Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:48 am
Break - yes but I was just using examples. Libri actively worked against Paul P. in 2011 and 2015 - both of which hurt Paul’s chances. They still held offices and have been well-liked in their roles.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:56 am
I believe there was a poll the other day that in effect said a majority of people in Illinois did not feel the budget impasse had affected their lives.
That would suggest to me that those folks will continue to do things as they have in the past. As others have said Sangamon County is a Red area. Yes it has a high level of public sector Union members but even those have not really felt serious negative effects yet from the impasse.
I believe most of those will vote as they have in the past. Therefore I fully expect Trump to carry the county and Sara will be re-elected.
Comment by Bemused Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 10:58 am
- Honeybear -
1) I’m extremely proud how Labor, and AFSCME on your breakdown specifically, have taken ownership of “voting accordingly” and that “elections have consequences” have been something to rally around, not cast blame on the past. Mirroring my complete lack of sympathy just 2 years ago, there’s that part of me that is encouraged that the closing of ranks and moving on, and moving forward, gives all of Labor a feeling of empowerment against the Rauner result.
Rauner’s biggest mistake could be uniting ALL of Labor like no one could, and ruining decade old alliances that Republicans had, and held important. Only on election night will we all know how loud all of labor will yell. My best to those doing the hard work in AFSCME and the bigger picture, all of Labor.
2) Chatter on this line is monitored, lol.
Keep plugging, OW
To bring this to the Post,
The factors for Rep. Jimenez could be the mobilization of AFSCME on ways that allow for those supporting Trump, but see Rauner, “at home” is more of a threat. The split could be “Trump-Dem Locals” . How messed up is that? That’s a Trump factor of ridiculous, all over the board, consistent-inconsistency.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 11:03 am
She marches in Lock Step to the Governor’s bidding. Afterall, he did get her pais $110K to be assist his own wife…
Electing her is a BAD option.
Comment by Union March Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 11:44 am
Present,
Um.. Sam McCann doesn’t have an opponent…
But! If you have spare time to volunteer for him, do you happen to have any experience in accounting?
Maybe you can help him get his mileage reimbursements in order.
Comment by Jack Kemp Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 12:09 pm
Tony personally knocked on my door two days ago here in Springfield, in a neighborhood full of Sara signs. I was going to vote for him anyway, but it was nice to talk with him and see him out pounding the sidewalks.
Comment by Finally Out (and now very glad to be) Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 12:25 pm
Great post Jack Kemp. This R didn’t vote for McCann. Pretty sad this guy is my state senator.
Union March, do you think Sue Scherer marches in lock step with MJM?
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 12:28 pm
== Maybe you can help him get his mileage reimbursements in order. ==
Don’t need an accountant. All you need to do is follow his Facebook posts. McCann seems to be everywhere all the time. He definitely works his district.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 12:34 pm
More about state insurance than anything else…
Comment by Liberty Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 1:07 pm
March - your point is taken but 12:28 is correct. These are mostly proxy wars.
Comment by Team Sleep Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 1:14 pm
There is no panic in Sangamon GOP circles about Jimenez right now, which leads me to believe she’s fine. Even if you take that poll at face value (which is suspect), he’s only at 38%, which means he has to win almost two-thirds of the REMAINING undecided vote in a GOP area to squeak it out. Since his poll, he’s been pounded in the mailboxes, and that has to have an effect in places like this. Even if the remaining undecideds split 50/50, she wins 53-47. His uphill battle remains that.
Comment by LessAnon? Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 2:35 pm
Also, disaffected Republicans still show to vote downballot races, even if they don’t like what’s going on at the top. Add to that the noise from the AFSCME stuff only affecting maybe 10-15% of the electorate in the district, and the potential for an upset is way overblown.
Comment by LessAnon? Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 2:39 pm
http://www.jimenezrecord.com/
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:05 pm
LessAnon
People can see that those mailings were cookie cutter unfounded hack job pieces.
I also like how you make republicans out to be step in line voters, that’s why Jimenez is doing poorly in the district, she votes as told. Thanks for pointing that out
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:14 pm
6 hit pieces a week isn’t panic by the Sangamon County GOP? What’s it look like when they’re REALLY worried??
Comment by FIREDup! Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:19 pm
===What’s it look like when they’re REALLY worried?? ===
Four pieces a day plus blanket TV and radio ads.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:22 pm
-Rich Miller-
I heard 3 Jimenez radio ads on my lunch hour and saw 2 TV commercials before work. I think they’re a tad concerned.
Comment by FIREDup! Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:24 pm
I dont know how many votes it will take to win the 99th.
But w 17,000 state employees in sangamon county, plus spouses, that might give you a pool of about 25,000.
Afscme state employees, high turnout, may vote against sara
25-1 (honey bear).
Nonunion state employees, high turnout, also strong vote agains sara, if tony can pin her to rauners lapel.
I dont think normal county level repub preferences will hold in this race, or mungers.
I want to see two or three polls trending similarly before i will trust them.
Comment by Langhorne Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:26 pm
@Publius Thank you for posting that link to Jimenez’s voting record. That is eye opening. DiGiorno should publish that on a campaign flyer. I’ll bet most of the people in her district have no idea that she voted against all those bills. She will vote to the pleasure of Rauner every single time.
Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:45 pm
OMG, Sara votes republican!!!
Wonder what D’s do? And, how do you think Deliverin’ Tony will vote if elected??
The outrage!
Comment by Piece of Work Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:53 pm
===And, how do you think Deliverin’ Tony will vote if elected??===
More like former Rep. Poe did.
That’s part of the issue, voting against your district(s) for Rauner.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 3:57 pm
Pure speculation Willy. He will vote as he is told.
BTW, do you get alerts when I post? Does your computer ding and you run and respond??
Ok, who do you want the Cubs to play in the NLCS?
Comment by PoW Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 4:03 pm
===Pure speculation Willy===
While speculative, the “campaign” of a voting record and not voting her district is at play.
That’s not speculative.
I’d prefer to face a ball club managed by Dusty Baker…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 4:07 pm
===OMG, Sara votes republican!!! ===
Pretty sure AFSCME would be fine with that. They endorsed plenty of GOPs. What they object to is the Raunerite voting.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 4:10 pm
Not related to this post, but anyone hear how Romanik.is polling?
Comment by blue dog dem Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 5:10 pm
First I’m another one of those normally reliable R voters who will be voting for Tony. Secondly if you see Sara signs the Sara Wojocki is white and Jiminez is black against a pink background and blends in a lot more so I wonder if that’s an attempt to emphasize her maiden name due to the name recognition in Sangamon County or what.
Comment by MyTwoCents Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 5:15 pm
Willy, may not be good if the Cubs lost to a Dusty Baker managed Nationals team.
Comment by PoW Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 5:28 pm
===…may not be good if the Cubs lost to a Dusty Baker managed Nationals team.===
My own personal psyche, when it comes to the organ-eye-zay-shun, I think is willing to take on that mental anguish. The Dodgers, while not the Giants, tend to find more ways to eek out wins.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 13, 16 @ 5:33 pm