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* Zorn…
Republicans will probably pick up seats in both chambers of the General Assembly — Rauner won the 2014 popular vote in 33 of the contested districts now held by Democrats.
Off-year elections and presidential elections are completely different animals. Pat Quinn got 1,681,343 votes in 2014, while Barack Obama received 3,019,512 votes in 2012.
I’m not saying his prediction is wrong (I don’t do predictions and he could very well turn out to be right), but what is wrong is to not even mention the fact that President Obama won a lot of those same Democratic districts four years ago that Gov. Rauner won two years ago.
* There simply is no doubt that this is a Democratic year in Illinois. So, if the Republicans net significant gains outside the one in the Senate where the Democrats didn’t even put up a candidate to replace retiring Sen. John Sullivan, and retiring Rep. Jack Franks’ district, where the Dems have only recently started spending money, and manage to hold onto their own existing seats, then this is a real win for Republicans. Make no mistake about it.
Yes, Team Rauner is spending a whole lot more on Republican legislative campaigns this year than ever before, but if you check the Tribune’s website you’ll see that Team Madigan is clearly holding its own.
* The Democrats drew the map, they have entrenched incumbents, lots and lots of capable foot soldiers and more than enough money in a year that’s trending strongly their way at the top of the ticket. Yes, Donald Trump will do well in some Downstate Democratic districts, but Republican presidential candidates always do well in those same districts.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:27 am
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What’s “fun” about Zorn and his ivory tower prognostication is that the result may be right, but Zorn’s rationale will be completely wrong.
The millisecond you look at POTUS and non-POTUS voting universes the same in looking in an upcoming election, that’s either way too, then you can’t be taken too seriously, even if the result works out with your prediction.
Maybe we can go back to… “What if Madigan was governor?”
That’s fun too.
Rauner needs to get to “66″ Madigan votes, real Madigan votes, and carry Munger.
All of it is doable, but the realities of a Democratic headwind in a POTUS voting universe is what needs to be looked at, not Rauner’s numbers… 2 years ago… in an off year.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:34 am
Well said, OW. It’s just amazing that the media and other elites pay attention to sanctimonious know-it-alls like Zorn and his ridiculous analyses. Oh well, let’s hope he’s at least right, no matter how flawed his reasoning
Comment by Whatever Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:49 am
=66 votes=
Nope. Rauner needs high 60’s… 69, 68, 67. Why? He picks up that many, with Trump at the top of the ticket and Kirk second, it’s a win. A big win. 66 would be a landslide against Madigan and would set up a VERY interesting 2018. 2018 starts Wednesday!
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:54 am
No - Big Muddy -
Not even close. The number is “66″ real Madigan votes.
Drury isn’t a Madigan vote, and Frank’s is gone already. Dunkin is out, so it “69″ Madigan votes.
Rauner spending “all” that money on “Fire Madigan”… Rauner needs a +3… And… Munger too.
Thems the breaks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:57 am
Zorn’s predictions are speculative … based upon his subjective reading of events, trends, history, demographics, etc.
He may get it right or wrong. We’ll soon see. Criticizing him for the predictions he makes, or the way he does so is fair game I guess.
But let’s make sure we call it what it all is: Speculation. Which is okay on this issue, I guess.
Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:58 am
Two big political forces set to collide: The Dems natural presidential year advantage vs. a mother load of Rauner cash.
I see a virtual draw coming…no more than a 2 or 3 seat swing in either direction.
Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 11:59 am
===reading of events, trends, history, demographics, etc.===
lol
As far as I can tell, he looked at 2014 results and Rauner campaign spending this year and little else.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:01 pm
The Donald will indeed do well in my county and other parts of Southern Illinois, but I doubt that that will necessarily carry over to the Kirk and Mendoza campaigns.
The Rauner money being spent to unseat well known downstate Democrat members of the GA will likely prove to be wasted.
The quality of the unknown and largely first-time candidates he has recruited and funded is lacking in many respects and this will be reflected tomorrow. And this goes to the race for the 5th Appellate Court as well.
Granted, the level of relative civility and “honesty” has reached new lows this year, and by both parties, but the Rauner Millions will definitely not turn some of these downstate races.
Comment by illini Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:02 pm
Also, if “66″ is a landslide, and “69″ is the starting number… I’d be a bit embarrassed that a “win” of getting Madigan to an alleged “68″ is a win.
That’s a joke.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:03 pm
Adding, don’t under estimate the map.
The fact that Madigan didn’t lose a single seat in ‘14 despite national GOP headwinds and Rauner’s win is pretty remarkable.
Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Roman, the map is included above.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:06 pm
Although I suspect Trump will do better than many expected, Kirk has distanced himself from him. Kirk is an island unto himself. No one knows and that is the interesting part, it is a complete guessing game (moreso than usual).
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:06 pm
– As far as I can tell, he looked at 2014 results and Rauner campaign spending this year and little else. –
Maybe, maybe not. But that too is but speculation … methinks you missed the irony yet again. Lol, indeed.
Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:08 pm
==Rauner spending “all” that money on “Fire Madigan”… Rauner needs a +3… And… Munger too.
Thems the breaks.==
Oh please. Everything that Rich said about the legislative races applies just as much, if not more, to the Comptroller race.
Munger is running in a Presidential election (thanks, Mr. Speaker) with a tremendously unpopular Republican candidate for President. The other statewide election, for Senate, also features a Republican candidate who has absolutely tanked.
Munger “”should”" be dead. The fact that she is still in it is a testament to the skill of her campaign team, and the absolutely horrid approval rating of Mike Madigan.
Comment by so... Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:09 pm
OW,
Manage Dem’s expectations much? Ya’ll are nuts if you don’t see the headwinds that Republicans face in this cycle. I’m fully aware of the $$ but that is EVEN. Illinois is a DEEP blue state and any pickup in this cycle, sans the Franks seat, is remarkable. A pickup of 7 is indeed a landslide. Respectfully. Now I’m off to get more plusses in!
Comment by Big Muddy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:11 pm
- Big Muddy -
Nah.
“But Madigan, but Madigan, but Madigan!!!”
Sometimes, you have to realize the bar you set is now farther away then the bar you want those to measure you by.
This is one of those times.
Thems the breaks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:16 pm
Franks seat is a goner. The equivalent of the Dems giving away Sullivan’s seat. Skoog will likely lose because of Mautino. Both of those races have nothing to do with Rauner.
Cloonen and Smiddy both won by a few hundred votes. If GOP wins, you can attribute that to Rauner’s spending.
But if people like Bradley, Yingling (who won by 10 last time against the same opponent), and Beiser lose… then, and only then, can you make a case that the Fire Madigan message worked.
Comment by Wizzard of Ozzie Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:17 pm
- so… -
Nope. Rauner set the bar, I didn’t.
Rauner wants the bar lowered, I don’t.
Bruce Rauner supports Donald Trump for President of the United States.
It’s not up for discussion or debate, so Rauner can sink or swim with Trump.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:18 pm
Those Trubune graphics are well done… BUT…
They have an “outside spending” category - but they don’t say which side the outside spending is for? Why?
Comment by JoeMaddon Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:20 pm
I increasingly look at Zorn kind of like I do Keith Olbermann–an intelligent guy with interesting observations about many things–but one who should stay completely away from political commentary.
Comment by Responsa Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:20 pm
===Both of those races have nothing to do with Rauner===
Some would say that Franks and Mautino left because of Rauner.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:20 pm
As far as all those Districts that Rauner carried in 2014, I’m not sure that’s relevant right now. A lot of those Rauner votes were votes against Pat Quinn. Being associated with Rauner is not a positive thing right now.
Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:29 pm
=== Skoog will likely lose because of Mautino. ===
I bet Skoog wins comfortably. Mautino hasn’t been as big of an issue as you think.
Comment by Anonymouth Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:36 pm
– Pat Quinn got 1,681,343 votes in 2014, while Barack Obama received 3,019,512 votes in 2012. –
Totally different animals.
When Con-Con designated future state office elections as off-year, Richard J. said Illinois wouldn’t elect a Democratic governor for 25 years.
Illinois went off-year in 1978, and didn’t elect a Democratic governor until 2002.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:36 pm
At this point Zorn is sort of the anti-Kass, his hatred of Rauner and the GOP in general runs really deep at this point
Comment by Oneman Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:37 pm
“Bruce Rauner won 50.8 percent of the popular vote in 2014. Yet, by my count, Rauner won 69 of 118 House districts that same year, or 58.5 percent.
“So, the Republican candidate for governor won 22 more House seats than the Republicans currently hold.
“That’s why Gov. Rauner thinks he has a real shot at picking up some House seats this year. His operation is focusing like a laser on the districts he won.” ….. Rich Miller, June 22,2016
https://capitolfax.com/2016/06/22/nothing-is-that-simple/
Truth is, the GOP DOES seem to be focusing on those districts and they ARE the most likely place to persuade voters with an anti-Democrats message.
Seats that do flip, whether one or two or six or seven, I have no idea and didn’t offer a prediction (careful readers note!), are going to be in those districts.
Anyone want to disagree?
Comment by Eric Zorn Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:37 pm
I think Wizzard gets it pretty close. I would say you could switch in or add the Conroy and McAulliffe races also. And even though close doesn’t count it will be interesting to see how close the old Sandack seat is.
Comment by Been There Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:44 pm
Mautino is a non issue in the Skoog race. In my mind people are forgetting that Rauner is less popular now than he was in 2014. The money is one thing but Rauner is actually a burden in the same way Madigan is in a lot of areas. And one thing I see is Rauner has managed to unite public and private unions that were not on the same page in 2014.
Comment by Augie Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 12:46 pm
===Mautino is a non issue in the Skoog race===
Not true.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 1:02 pm
To be fair Professor Redfield and I are in agreement on the prediction for GOP pickup totals. Last week I noted that I believe the HRO will snag 5 seats and that the Senate GOP will get 3. I could be wrong but for now I hold my prediction steady and will admit I am wrong if my prediction is way off. We will know who is right and who is wrong in less than 48 hours.
Augie - there seems to be a lot of media coverage in the LaSalle-Peru area regarding Mr. Skoog and the role Mr. Mautino will play in the race. It may not be THE factor but it certainly will be a factor.
Comment by Team Sleep Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 1:12 pm
===Truth is, the GOP DOES seem to be focusing on those districts and they ARE the most likely place to persuade voters with an anti-Democrats message===
While adorable, the mere fact that, again, you fail to grasp the whole “POTUS - Off Year” dynamic and are more concerned about the where, not the what or even the why, again, you may stumble upon the right answer(s) with entirely the wrong statistical rationale.
Other than that…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 1:16 pm
===Truth is, the GOP DOES seem to be focusing on those districts and they ARE the most likely place to persuade voters with an anti-Democrats message===
Yes, that’s true, as I’ve written before, but this isn’t 2014. It’s 2016 which has a much different electorate.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 1:25 pm
The Dems don’t have a veto-proof majority now and won’t have one in January. But they will rule both houses. So Rauner will have spent millions to flip a handful of seats and change nothing.
Comment by Joe Biden Was Here Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 2:14 pm
Team Sleep, the Ottawa Times namely David Guiliani has dedicated a lot of coverage to Mautino, however it is not landing on Skoog. I do not see much evidence of Dems switching to Long which he needs in a presidential year. Long dose have support and the financial backing of Rauner and may turnout republicans in higher than usual numbers.
Comment by Augie Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 2:39 pm
Let’s look at 2014 where a Republican won the top of the ticket. How many seats did Republicans pick up in both chambers?
1 R pick up in Senate
Even in House
Rich is right that with a top of the ticket winning big, the Rs should be excited to pick up anything more than the Sullivan/Franks seats.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 4:42 pm
Republicans will lose seats in both houses. Why? The FBI fiasco scared the bejesus out of Democrats so they will go to the polls in large numbers.Latino turn out is historic, they are voting in droves against Trump. There will be an awesome Democratic turn out. The Republicans, on the other hand, are stay at home despondents.
Comment by wondering Monday, Nov 7, 16 @ 4:44 pm