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* From Illinois Republican Party Executive Director Nick Klitzing…
The Democrats’ First Big Test
After losing six legislative seats as a result of his obstructionism, House Speaker Mike Madigan doubled and tripled down on his politically-failing strategy of trying to block all efforts to reform state government and balance the budget.
On Tuesday, Madigan issued a scathing statement in response to the election results. Last night, he backed out of meeting with Governor Rauner and other legislative leaders. If Madigan continues to dig in, Illinois Democrats face a critical choice: they can either let Madigan bury them or they can prove their independence.
A Losing Position
Throughout the summer and fall, internal polling showed that Illinois voters overwhelmingly blamed Mike Madigan for the condition of the state and the budget impasse. And relentlessly “Madiganizing the message” worked.In a Presidential election year, with Hillary Clinton winning at the top of the ticket by over 15 points, Republicans dealt Madigan’s Democrats a significant blow down ballot by localizing races and focusing on his leadership.
Among the Democrats’ losses were top Madigan Lieutenants John Bradley and Kate Cloonen. Both handily outspent their opponents, but lost because of their deep ties to Madigan.
Madigan also spent millions and deployed his top political operatives trying to defeat Rep. Michael McAuliffe, the only Republican legislator whose district is in Chicago. Rep. McAuliffe trounced his opponent by 13 points by tying her to Madigan.
Voters understood that electing Democrats to the General Assembly in down ballot races meant strengthening Madigan’s power. They rejected Madigan, handily breaking Madigan’s supermajority.
The Test
Soon, the remaining Illinois Democrats will face their own critical test as they decide beginning this week whether to re-elect Mike Madigan as Speaker and unquestioned leader of their Party.Will Democrats risk their own political futures by standing by the most unpopular political leader in Illinois?
If you want to know who the targeted Democrats will be in 2018, you can start by watching who continues to support Mike Madigan as Speaker.
Then, Democrats must also follow through on their promises. In races across the state, winning Democratic candidates co-opted Republican legislative proposals - backing term limits, redistricting reform and a property tax freeze - in their messaging. Now, it’s time for them to deliver – or be held accountable by voters in 2018.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:11 pm
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There were three state-wide elections last Tuesday. Democrats won all three. There were 118 seats in the Illinois House up for election last Tuesday. Dems. won the majority.
It’s like saying the Republicans lost nationally on Tuesday because Dems. picked up 2 Senate seats and 9 US House seats. It’s a silly argument.
Comment by Try-4-Truth Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:15 pm
Just saying no isn’t going to work for the Democrats. That’s clear. Like it or not, voters think Madigan is in charge - and that puts Dems at a disadvantage.
Comment by anon Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:16 pm
Lots and lots and lots of words to walk back…
“A one seat win would be huge!”
Matching results to what you want the desired causes is always a neat trick.
The ILRaunerites had no idea they’d do what they did, they told everyone so with that early release.
This is as wrong as its right.
That’s the takeaway. It’s as wrong as its right, and the ILRaunerites are still enjoying the wins they themselves thought weren’t coming.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:16 pm
Nice try. Still not a justification for the destruction of the private social services, higher education, state agencies and workforce, and the non honoring of contracts. So much destruction is on Rauner. Only Rauner no matter how many times you tell the lie or perpetuate the perfidy.
Comment by Honeybear Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:16 pm
But what’s their Winnin’ strategy for a balanced budget now that they can’t use the claim that Madigan has a veto proof majority. Durkin needs to be an adult.
Comment by Winnin' Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:20 pm
People voted accordingly.
Comment by Thunder Fred Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:20 pm
- Thunder Fred -
Mendoza. Statewide.
You’re welcome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:22 pm
At the national level, at least GOP House leader/Speaker Ryan was willing to buck Trump. Does Durkin have what it takes to buck Rauner?
Comment by Winnin' Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:23 pm
I am curious what happens next with the House/Senate GOP too. The campaign narrative won them seats, but they’re still going to have to bend in order to accomplish things.
Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:23 pm
ILGOP is the mouse that roared.
Today, after its BIG WINS, it’s ready to take on the world!
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:24 pm
Seems they had this in the can, ready to go after the meeting. Do they also have the agenda Madigan requested? Or was the agenda not the point of the meeting?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:24 pm
Election was last week, now it’s time for governing.
Unless the Republicans are already focused entirely on 2018? They said the tax form release was held until after the election so that it would be seen as the first salvo in the 2018 race. Maybe today’s meeting was the second salvo all along.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:27 pm
Key point about the McAullife race. Madigan wanted that, bad, and threw everything at it. And lost big. In a year turnout was in his favor.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:27 pm
Hey Nick, how about your party step up to the test and present a balanced budget?
Comment by Illinois O'Malley Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:29 pm
Madigan is the most hated politician in Illinois, period. And although he’s impervious to direct pressure, his caucus is absolutely vulnerable … and they are definitely under the gun now.
Comment by Deft Wing Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:29 pm
===And lost big. In a year turnout was in his favor===
Yeah. Clinton won that district by a lot.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:30 pm
Call me crazy, but how I see it, Madigan won the biggest proxy war, and that counts, as our President Elect(gross) might say, “bigly.”
Comment by AlfondoGonz Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:31 pm
To the GOP -
Stop, just stop, Your moderate party voters want you to be statesmen and get stuff done. I’m fed up with all of you. The elections over. Quit demonizing the other party.
Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:31 pm
Concern trolling by press release. If the Speaker is really such a millstone around Democrats’ necks, shouldn’t the Illinois GOP want him to remain? Its own “please proceed, Speaker” moment?
Comment by Moe Berg Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:32 pm
For our sanity, both parties should agree to a moratorium on campaigning for the next 6 months.
Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:33 pm
I’ve been following IL politics for many, many decades. I thought that no one could be worse than Madigan… but then Rauner came along. I believe the Munger race was a pretty good indicator of relative party strength in IL, given all the money spent. The new 67 to 51 House split with a Demo map, is typical of elections in the 2000s (also Demo map). Madigan doesn’t need 71 Dems, he only wants a Democrat as governor. If Trump’s popularity takes a dive in IL in 2018, Rauner is in big trouble. For 2018 Madigan, will move heaven & earth to find a strong candidate, then spend tons of money to elect him/her. For Madigan, politics his business, but for Rauner, it’s just a hobby.
Comment by geoffkl Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:40 pm
Right off the top of my head I would say that the Cloonen, Smiddy, Bradley, and Franks seats were likely losers given the unexpected Trump effect. FiveThirtyEight put an article out showing how terrible Clinton did in states that were not expected to be competitive at all including Illinois. The anti-Madigan retorts were part of the problem for Dems, but the biggest problem, ironically enough, lay with their candidate being criminally investigated and being too cozy with Wall Street.
Comment by The Muse Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:42 pm
Deft i can only think of one other politician hated just as much. I bet you can guess who. Hint now he has a p-off presient to deal with.
Comment by jimk849 Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:45 pm
‘And relentlessly “Madiganizing the message” worked.’ So the strategy is to focus on an image not what you actually can do better or what you can provide. So to paraphrase the great Fernando: ‘It is better to look good than to feel good.’ So $40M for 4 seats is a good thing?
Comment by zatoichi Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:48 pm
=Madigan is the most hated politician in Illinois, period. And although he’s impervious to direct pressure, his caucus is absolutely vulnerable … and they are definitely under the gun now. =
And they are still the majority party. That will not change, even at the current rate, for a couple of cycles.
So, the GOP should smarten up and begin to move to a compromise. As the minority party, they gave a tough road ahead.
While Rauner will probably be re elected, I am not certain that is as much a given as some think if the right Democratic Party candidate comes along. Rauner is none to popular either. Historically (and I realize the unprecedented nature of our times) his numbers would likely be impossible to over come.
But things are different right now.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 3:54 pm
Hilary won in only 11 of 102 Illinois counties. So, her coat tails didn’t pull all that well in the hinterlands, particularly in the coal counties.
Comment by Keyser Soze Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:12 pm
Republicans will also have to prove that they are not just bought and paid for by Mr. Rauner and his billionaire buddies.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:17 pm
===Republicans will also have to prove that they are not just bought and paid for by Mr. Rauner===
Dems didn’t use that this year. Take it up with them.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:18 pm
==While Rauner will probably be re elected, I am not certain that is as much a given as some think if the right Democratic Party candidate comes along.==
I think Rauner is in BIG trouble. I can’t see how any viable Democratic candidate doesn’t beat him in a statewide race. He can beat Candy Crush Cloonen but he couldn’t beat Mendoza and they made her out Madigan’s right arm. A decent dem candidate and Rauner is toast unless he starts getting something done. He just lost his “Supermajority” excuse to throw at Dems so he’s running out of cards to play.
Comment by CrazyHorse Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:21 pm
Pay no attention to the loss of two more statewide GOP candidates.
Pay no attention to the fact Ds moved good dem territory to other districts.
Bssk in this glorious moment. Capt Fax is.
Comment by Annonin' Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:26 pm
“Republicans dealt Madigan’s Democrats a significant blow down ballot by localizing races and focusing on his leadership”
I’m in a district that flipped from Kay (R) to Stuart (D). I received 3-4 mail pieces a day for the last few weeks of the campaign. The HRO did almost nothing to localize the race.
At no point did Kay articulate a path to keeping SIUe open without State funding. He did nothing to address how to keep local school districts open with no certainty in funding. He did nothing to address how, exactly, we get to a balanced budget without one cent more in income taxes.
He did (through the party and Proft) tell me that Stuart (a newcomer with no history in Springfield) is the puppet of a Speaker she has never cast a vote for. He did tell me that a Facebook post of hers is essentially the same as voting to give every penny of tax revenue to Chicago Public Schools. He (an incumbent) did try to tie the newcomer to blocking term limits somehow.
Sorry, I didn’t see it localized at all. It was a race full of State-wide cut and paste marketing. And it failed.
Comment by illini97 Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:38 pm
Think the R’s analysis is not that far off. Anonymous at 3:27 has a key point….when you throw your daughter, a US Senator, a member of congress at McA with letters for the opponent, put a USSenator at an early voting site, you’d think it was a win. oddly, the Dem candidate did not attach to Clinton. Maybe the point of that race was to get a bunch of money for consultants owed for other things.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 4:44 pm
They seem to truly be stuck on the idea that a world without MJM means their unpopular positions and policies somehow fly through the GA.
Comment by Signal and Noise Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:01 pm
The McAuliffe race proved once again that old adage - You can’t beat somebody with nobody
Comment by Grand Avenue Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:04 pm
Just wait until Rauner finds a good candidate and uses the Madigan name against Lisa…we’ll really see how it plays.
Comment by 4 percent Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:05 pm
@Grand Ave, did Ann Willis have a profile before they took out Skip?
Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:20 pm
ooops, Kathleen Willis.
Comment by Amaliz Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:24 pm
There is only so far you can get running state-wide against someone not on a state-wide ballot.
Comment by peon Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 5:49 pm
“No, no, don’t take away the non-functioning super majority”
Br’er Rabbit
Rauner did MJM a favor in this election. Got him off the hook.
Comment by Paul S Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 6:24 pm
Term limits see last Tuesday
Comment by Rabid Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 7:02 pm
You know, if the Speaker would just step away, Republicans will concede all those races in two years. They will also come up with a budget and Rauner will figure out how to act like a Gov.
Is that really what they are suggesting?
Come on.
If Democrats were to suddenly kick out Madigan and vote for [insert name here], in two years, the GOP will roll with STOP [insert name here].
That’s all they can do. They can’t govern. They can complain about the Speaker. They know their limitations.
Comment by Gooner Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:21 pm
Trump and Clinton won’t be on the 2018 ballot. Trump carried the day, not Rauner’s money.
Comment by Liberty Monday, Nov 14, 16 @ 9:36 pm
It worked … and given his massive resources don’t expect Rauner to stop funding the State GOP which will continue with its messaging.
More. To. Come.
Comment by Deft Wing Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 6:36 am
… Except in Cook and the collars… ?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 6:57 am
Written by a Republican, posturing a viewpoint from a republican stance.
Rauner has more skin in the game. The R gains were in fact incidental. Had Rauner openly endorsed Trump, there might have been more support for R’s.
I believe I read in the Chicago collar counties, more indviduals, both men and women voted as Dems.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 8:45 am
Just like Rauner being out of touch with Illinoisians, the Hillary Campaign & the DNC loss of two corrupt Chairmen are more of the issue with the loss of Dem seats.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 8:49 am
Raunerites (Diana and Bruce Rauner, Uihlein, and Griffin) have more “cheese” in the game.
It’s not a Republican “thing”, it’s 3 families.
It’s safe to say that Raunerites held serve with all their seats, but Downstate Kay’s, but it’s worth noting even the ILRaunerites had no idea what Election Day would bring and jumped the gun with a release touting a one-seat win.
The real argument might be the underperforming of Mendoza and how much of that was the monies spent against her, and how Democrats and Labor saved Mendoza where her campaign could not.
That’s a measure Raunerites might see, even in a loss, as very positive, that they were able to peel off 10% from Clinton and Duckworth, statewide, and continued to get close in a POTUS universe statewide.
You don’t send a release like the ILRaunerites did just to lower expectations, the writing WAS the expectation.
Everyone was as surprised as Rauner’s state party.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 8:54 am
I dislike the braggadocio.
Your party made some small gains in the G.A.
The other party took back a constitutional office and the Senate seat as well as two Rep seats.
No need to cue the fireworks.
Illinois and Minnesota were the only blue blips among a sea of red in “Middle America”.
Your party has alot of work left to do.
Comment by Jake From Elwood Tuesday, Nov 15, 16 @ 8:55 am