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* The Governor’s budget office has published its latest five-year fiscal projection. Click here. And click here for a more complete explanation and background.
If things continue down this same path (with the same levels of taxation and spending patterns), GOMB projects a total bill backlog of more than $47 billion by Fiscal Year 2022.
Oof.
* The projected fiscal year backlogs are as follows…
2017 $13.543 billion
2018 $20.639 billion
2019 $27.692 billion
2020 $34.103 billion
2021 $40.593 billion
2022 $47.121 billion
…Adding… Here is where we are as of today. We’ve broken the $10 billion mark…
It happened. #twill #ILBudget https://t.co/G7AGAqQoN3 pic.twitter.com/66S7ii5vYg
— Barton Lorimor (@bartonlorimor) November 16, 2016
*** UPDATE *** From SEIU Healthcare, with emphasis added by me…
Hi all,
Today the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget published its economic and fiscal policy report and five-year projections. Below are some summary points.
These are required to be published every year by law, as a prelude to the budget, in order to set out the “economic and fiscal policy objectives of the State” in the coming year and beyond. This year is the first year that they were moved up from January to November, and the first year the projections are for five years rather than three. (Last year’s report will be remembered for the headline that the state’s bill backlog was projected to reach $25 billion by the end of 2019.)
This year, the news is just as bad: The report shows clearly the damage the Rauner administration has done to the state budget and economy, and declares Rauner’s intention to continue the hostage situation with the state budget to pursue his ideological agenda and damage working families.
Some highlights:
- Declares that the Rauner administration will double down on a hostage-taking approach to the budget. The only mention of Governor Rauner actually getting a budget done is prefaced by “If the legislature is willing to enact adequate structural reforms…” There is no definition of what are “adequate structural reforms,” and no evidence given for the claim that these “reforms” will induce miraculous growth in the Illinois economy.
- Projects that the state’s bill backlog will grow to $27.7 billion by the end of 2019, rather than the previous projection of $25.0 billion. Through Rauner’s hostage-taking on budget and revenue, the state is digging this hole faster. By the end of 2022, this bill backlog is projected to grow to $47.1 billion. That is more than one full year of state operating expenditures.
- Observes that Illinois’ economy has performed poorly in the past 1-2 years, but refuses to even consider that this might have something to do with the protracted crisis and uncertainty Rauner has caused by refusing to sign a budget. (For example, nonfarm employment grew by less than half the national average, 12,700 manufacturing jobs left the state, and job growth has been in low-wage sectors, over the year from August 2015 to August 2016.)
- Includes a full page on the “stopgap” spending plan passed at the 11th hour this June that declares it a success by not mentioning the “limited” General Funds appropriations meant many human service providers are taking a 33% or higher cut, resulting in a continued wave of closures and no rebuilding whatsoever of these vital services since the stopgap was signed into law; and not mentioning at all the much deeper cuts to higher education and MAP grants that have state universities on the verge of collapse.
- In a list of problem areas that “crowd out” other state spending, misidentifies home care for seniors as a problem area. Home care for seniors has grown because it is a preferred care setting for tens of thousands more seniors in a growing senior population, and it has saved the state at least as much as it has cost by preventing the need to pay for costly institutional care. (Overall, the categories of spending called out in this section are highly selective and problematic. Home care for seniors might only be the most absurd example.)
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:20 am
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Compounding interest…it is a witch.
Comment by yeah Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:27 am
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/malfeasance
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:27 am
I’ll say it again.
Venture Capitalists
Buy it
Break it
Sell it
Governing will happen. Government will cease. Total private sector takeover. Only the Legislature controlling contracts with the private sector. What that surprises you?
Totally where we are headed.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:28 am
This trend really needs a turnaround !
Comment by Lech W Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:29 am
Can the fiscal conservatives kindly explain again why Illinois has a spending problem, not a revenue problem?
Comment by anon Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:30 am
It’s almost as if someone should do something about this issue. /s
Comment by Highland Il Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:31 am
Maybe someone in leadership should Illinois Prompt Payment Act.
Comment by Rogue Roni Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:36 am
I’m pretty sure Rauner will find a willing partner in Madigan whenever he decides its time to raise more revenue.
This reminds me of the Seinfeld episode when Kramer takes the car for a test ride and he and the salesman see how far they can go before running out of gas. I’m pretty sure Rauner is Kramer in this example.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuEdU_lrtZk
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:36 am
“Raunie, you’re doing a heck of a job!” - voters
Comment by Bleugrass Boy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:39 am
That GOMB sure can do some far-out into the future cipherin.
So…. why can’t they provide projections on the economic and fiscal benefits of the governor’s agenda?
I kid. They can. The results just aren’t a selling point.
If they were, we would have seen them long ago.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:43 am
If the Comptroller’s office is reading this (or Comptroller-elect) it would be a great feature to add to search that backlog by date. I’d love to know what it was on 1/11/15, the day before the Governor was inaugurated.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:46 am
Hate to say it again, but Quinn and allies, were on track to completely eliminate the backlog by 2018, and pay off the pension debt conservatively by 2030.
But style over substance, and economic myths before real numbers. That’s how we roll in our democracy.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:47 am
Our bill backlog has increased by $6 billion in the short time that Rauner has been Governor and at the present course will be over $20 billion by the time Rauner comes up for reelection. How in the world can you defend that record with the voters? The answer to that question will be to blame it all on Madigan obviously.
Governors need to lead by building consensus, making compromises and doing what is necessary to improve the well being of the state. The Governor relishes doing battle with Madigan, it’s a game to him but he is killing the state. We have to have a fully funded, balanced budget before Summer.
Durkin said yesterday that many Democrats are eager to have a fully funded budget. I’m not sure what he meant by that. Was he saying that many Republicans aren’t eager for the impasse to end? I would guess that many GOP members are as eager for a solution as the Democrats are.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:47 am
@Honeybear, I’m with you, but please read my post under the Pritzker item. Rauner is not a venture capitalist; he’s a leveraged buy out artist. They are very different. Know your opponent well!
Comment by X-prof Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:52 am
Captain, the backlog was $4.4 billion in the comptroller’s report for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2014.
It had been nearly $10 billion at the height of the recession, but was whittled down during Quinn’s tenure.
Remember when Republicans used to talk about fiscal responsibility? Now they’re “reformers,” which is whatever you want it to be or, more accurately, nothing at all.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:53 am
=== - walker - Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:47 am:
Hate to say it again, but Quinn and allies, were on track to completely eliminate the backlog by 2018, and pay off the pension debt conservatively by 2030. ===
I get that. But if Quinn and allies knew it would take until 2030, why did they put the sunset provision in the tax increase? Nevermind, I know the answer. Gutless wonders….
Comment by Birdseed Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:53 am
@Wordslinger - thanks!
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 10:58 am
The forecast used to project the numbers assumed slow growth to reflect the likelihood of a recession. When a recession hits, the numbers will be worse.
The financially unsustainable is hitting the politically immovable. Which gives?
Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:04 am
===Gutless wonders===
Speaking of which, as WS already pointed out, why can’t GOMB show these projections alongside the projections if the TA was enacted?
In other words, if we do nothing, the projected shortfall will be $47.121 billion in six years. If the TA is enacted, the projected shortfall will be $X.
Isn’t that their job? How long do we have to wait for them to tell us the impact of the TA?
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:07 am
Let’s give AFSCME what they want - that will fix this Right ?
Comment by T Sowell Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:08 am
@Word and Walker-
Well put gentlemen, very well put!
I think you guys are great at condensing these things and articulating factual information.
Quinn was a bumbler in many ways, but he made the tough choices that, had they been sustained, would have been good for Illinois. Those are usually the guys that get shown the door thought he was often his own worst enemy.
Current governor- actions vs. words.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:09 am
$47 billion. It will take a lot of volunteers replacing AFSCME workers to make up that amount of money.
Comment by Michael Westen Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:12 am
You gotta love how Rauner & Co give themselves more disposable income to the detriment of Illinois…then act surprised (nay outraged!) when debt piles up.
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:17 am
The ONLY way this state will get out of debt is to increase taxes, and decrease spending, then all of the unused revenue must be put towards the debt, paying off the smallest bills first. Love him or hate him, when Pat Quinn was governor, our backlog of overdue bills went from $9 billion when he took office, to $3 billion when he left office. Who was in office the whole time Quinn was? Michael Madigan. Rauner can’t blame Madigan for this. His refusal to negotiate on the budget until his demands are met is the very essence of what occurs in a hostage situation. Rauner is holding the state hostage to get the demands he wants met. He can’t blame Madigan for this. He campaigned on the tax increase ending, then said the state has to make reforms because it couldn’t pay it’s bills. Then he made this list of demands he wanted met before he would consider a budget. This mess is Rauner’s baby.
Comment by Hottot Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:20 am
Wasn’t it Rauner that pleaded with the Legislature to not extend the 5% tax during the Lame Duck session before his inauguration? Why do people just continue to ignore that fact when it comes down to the increasing backlog of bills/debt? Say it, and keep saying it.
Comment by Big Joe Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:21 am
Today’s program is not posted yet, but it will be a good one to listen to on the 21st concerning what service providers are going through. Some intakes for victims of abuse are up to 12 weeks. These are the Rauner Cuts to the budget(s) and these are his Reforms.
http://nprillinois.org/programs/21st
You can check your local Illinois NPR station, too, to see when The 21st plays in your area.
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:22 am
>Isn’t that their job? How long do we have to wait for them to tell us the impact of the TA?
I think we’ll have to wait until the Illinois Democratic Party has a coherent message that makes this an issue getting press coverage. Given that the reality started as Rauner refusing to handle the budget until his preconditions were met and was willing to let things go down the drain until he did and that yesterday’s coverage sounded more like Madigan had a precondition to ignore the TA until a budget is done, they have a long ways to go.
Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:23 am
Apples to apples…
Rauner’s projected backlog:
2017 $13.5 billion
2018 $20.6 billion
2019 $27.6 billion
Quinn’s projected backlog:
2017 $3.3 billion
2018 $3.0 billion
2019 $2.2 billion
Sheesh.
Comment by Handle Bar Mustache Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:23 am
@T Sowell. Let’s just fire all state employees. . . that’ll fix this RIGHT?
Comment by P Krugman Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:23 am
Hmm didn’t Rauner run on a campaign of helping our economy?
After the recession our backlog reached a high of $6.8 billion in 2012.. and under Quinn it had been reduced to $3.6 billion –which it was when Rauner took office.
So under Rauner, without a budget, he has managed to triple the backlog to new heights it never reached under democratic leadership…
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:25 am
>…Adding… Here is where we are as of today. We’ve broken the $10 billion mark…
This might be on the way to more leverage than even Rauner wants.
Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:26 am
Another stopgap will only make those numbers worse.
Comment by Really? Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:27 am
Big Joe - so?! Cullerton and Madigan could have muscled through extensions. Cullerton’s caucus especially would have been an easier sell given that they had 40 members at the end of 2014. Why did Cullerton and Madigan acquiesce? They “listened” to then Governor-elect Rauner so that they could immediately put him in a trick box. Period. And now here we are.
That would be same as President-elect Trump asking outing President Obama to rescind a controversial executive order. President Obama has no reason to listen or care.
Rep. Will Davis’s bill is now critical. If all sides are interested in saving some face and not jacking up taxes to historic levels then they have to act on Rep. Davis’s proposal.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:28 am
What I do not understand is why the various vendors continue to provide the state with goods and services. They know that they will not be paid for months and that the delay in payment is costly to them. Is it not time for vendors to help ’solve’ the late payment issue by stopping doing business with the State of Illinois and start doing business with someone else who will pay them promptly?
Comment by Hit or Miss Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:34 am
Voters have long memories and don’t like being lied to.
When you tell them we need to pass a temporary income tax increase that will allow the state to pay its bills and begin to sunset in 4 years they expect the lawmakers to keep their word and follow through with the necessary cuts and reforms that would require.
The Speaker’s long standing practice of doing of a temporary fix of huge systemic problems is coming back to haunt us again.
They sold the tax increase as bait and switch and
we are paying the price for that now.
The Democrats have had ample time to make their case for revenue reform before and after Rauner to make the tax code fairer- graduated income tax, services, retirement income etc.
Their continued inaction on this and reform of state government and our business climate is a colossal failure.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:36 am
Yet another reason for those with the means to leave the state. It’s tough…I have family and friends who live here, along with a house and job. But with potential kid on the way, there’s no way that I can justify staying here when it’s just going to be economically horrible.
Comment by Romeo Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:47 am
@Lucky— Rauner ran on the position that he could balance the budget with the 3.75% income tax. Don’t you think it’s time Rainer presents it?
Comment by Illinois O'Malley Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:48 am
Hit or Miss- Not sure what the status is currently of this program, but delayed payments can be income makers for some companies.
http://northernpublicradio.org/post/more-600-million-illinois-debt-isnt-processed-through-comptrollers-office
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:49 am
==It had been nearly $10 billion at the height of the recession, but was whittled down during Quinn’s tenure.==
The bill backlog was around $8.5B right before the tax hike. Once Quinn left, it was “whittled” down to $4.4B as you stated. 4 years, $30B+ collected from the hike, yet only $4B whittled? I understand he made pension payments with some of that extra revenue, but did he resize the budget over those 4 years? Did he cut expenses to match the revenue based on the income tax rates at the time or the 2015 rate? Sure looks like he didn’t.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:55 am
47th Ward I thought you were a progressive Democrat, I assume you are aware that Seinfeld is in part owned by Stephen K. Bannon of team Trump. See http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/trumps-new-campaign-guru-stephen-920367
Comment by Rod Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 11:56 am
===yet only $4B whittled? I understand he made pension payments with some of that extra revenue, but did he resize the budget over those 4 years?===
Some? Try almost all. And yes, Medicaid was cut too, among other things. Ask the higher ed folks, for instance.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:04 pm
Illinois O’Malley- Rauner has supported new revenues for the past 22 months. Stop it with the misdirection and obfuscation, you are not fooling anyone.
The Governor has said if Democrats think all we need is a tax increase and no reforms they should pass one.
Rauner has said he will raise taxes if we get some badly needed reforms which have been necessary for decades but continue to get held up in the rules committee by the Speaker.
Just this week the Speaker said the Governor is interested in revenue and pension reform.
Strange how the Speaker said it like that. Any responsible legislator that noticed our unfunded pension debt went up by 20 billion dollars would be interested in revenue and pension reform.
The fact that Speaker did not say he was speaks volumes.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:04 pm
The IPI is Rauner’s Breitbart.
Don’t expect the mainstream media to explain how bad Rauner has messed up Illinois’ economy.
Rauner knows that he can spend millions and distort the truth.. and blame Madigan and Quinn.
But alas, a well-funded opponent will help.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:13 pm
“Let’s give AFSCME what they want - that will fix this Right ?”
AFSCME supported the temporary tax hike — the tax hike with which Quinn was paying down the bill backlog and the pension deficit.
Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:23 pm
I haven’t had a chance to read through all the details in the document, but that negative growth sure seems extraordinarily linear. Are they really expecting to offset that much interest year over year?
Comment by bothanspy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:32 pm
The temporary tax hike was to pay doen the backlog. The prnsion reform was to lower the cost of pensions. But the pension reform got thrown out, so the temporary tax hike had to do double duty. It was not intended to pay the backlog and the pension bill. We ar3 in a deeper hole than anyone expected in 2010, and too many people are more focused on pointing fingers and winning news cycles than on fixing state government. Sheesh.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:35 pm
–Just this week the Speaker said the Governor is interested in revenue and pension reform.–
And just today the governor changed his mind about his priorities.
Check your in-box for new chanting points.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:37 pm
I like how they carried out the dollar figure to the penny to make it look even bigger.
Comment by Molly Maguire Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:37 pm
Governor is still interested in pension reform Wordslinger and extra money for CPS is contingent on it.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:54 pm
–…and extra money for CPS is contingent on it.–
LOL, “extra money?” Did you read the post?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 12:59 pm
The obvious question is where are the revenue projections if his turnaround agenda is passed?
Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:10 pm
I noticed his graphs claim “pension benefits are up” of course everyone knows pension payments are up while the benefits remain the same.
Also the rising insurance costs include interest on the unpaid bills…
Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:14 pm
@Lucky– where was the new revenue bill by Rauner you talk about? Oh that’s right, in his left pocket that ‘Deflecting’ Guy told us about yesterday…
Comment by Illinois O'Malley Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:33 pm
== What I do not understand is why the various vendors continue to provide the state with goods and services. ==
Actually, a lot of vendors have cut the state off, including some you might think would just ride it out and collect the interest. But they take a risk in dropping out, because the state purchasers may never come back to them again.
In some cases, the State has managed to find new vendors, mostly from large national chains, to replace the smaller and mom & pop suppliers who have dropped out. The big boys can more easily wait for their money, although they have their limits also. The State hasn’t burned through every possible vendor YET … but I can see that day coming in a year or so.
In other cases, mid-level state employees spend their entire day on the phone begging and pleading to keep suppliers sending goods and services. They don’t have a lot to offer the vendors, other than trying to get some of the past payments processed as emergencies through the Comptroller’s Office. That, by the way, is why the loss of the Comptroller’s Office in the recent election IS a big deal; the administration will lose some of that flexibility to shuffle “critical” vendors to the front of the line.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:37 pm
RNUG- How long do you think those midlevel management can keep it up. Not much longer I think. They’ll leave state service very soon.
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:27 pm
RNUG- “In other cases, mid-level state employees spend their entire day on the phone begging and pleading to keep suppliers sending goods and services.”
Not snark to you RNUG, snark to Rauner and Co.-
What accounting code does begging and pleading fall under???
What a waste of mind and time power! Not to mention stress levels of these employees and the staff at some of the State locations.
Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:03 pm
Lucky Pierre @ 12:04 pm ==Rauner has supported new revenues for the past 22 months.==
Really? What specific proposals does he have in mind? He has plenty of specifics about his TA (although which ones matter changes by the minute) and some very good things such as prison and criminal law reform, but I’ve never seen any revenue raisers. Is there anything in Rep. Davis’ latest bill that he finds acceptable or opposes? Nothing in that bill is new, so he’s had plenty of time. Saying “give me what I want and then we’ll talk about the revenues you want” isn’t an honest bargaining position, much less support for new revenues.
Comment by Whatever Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 4:48 pm
–The obvious question is where are the revenue projections if his turnaround agenda is passed?–
The obvious answer is that for Illinois media, “math is hard, Barbie.’
It’s easier to just mindlessly write “budget impasse” and “reforms” ten thousand times, oblivious to the obvious that neither phrase communicates anything of substance.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 5:18 pm
Still don’t want to legalize and tax cannabis? Por que?
Comment by Mary Jane Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 5:50 pm