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* What did you get most wrong about your own 2016 campaign predictions? Explain why if you can, and please keep it Illinois-centric. Thanks.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:51 pm
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I was most wrong about Trump. Still in denial about it too, because denial is a safer place for me than anger. Anger is strong, and I’m trying to keep it in check.
I did not believe Hillary Clinton would do so poorly with women. Not being a women, I can’t figure it out and no one has been able to offer me much of an explanation. That so many women could vote for Trump still confuses me.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:54 pm
I’m happy about being wrong that Raunerbucks would give Munger a victory.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Thought that House Rs would pick up 2, and they got 4. Thought the Bost race would be competitive.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Gary Forby. I knew it would be a tight race, but..it wasn’t.
Comment by The_Equalizer Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:55 pm
P.S. I had this sinking feeling that Trump would win on the night the Cubs won the World Series. Nate Silver had predicted that Trump had a better chance of winning than the Cubs.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:58 pm
Gary Forby, Dwight Kay.
2 Republican Appellate Judges elected downstate despite being outspent 20-1.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Virtually everything, but based on their voting records, I thought Bourne’s and Wojcicki-Jiminez’s races would be a lot closer than they wound up.
Comment by SAP Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:00 pm
I thought the Dold-Schneider race would be closer with Schneider the likely winner. Schneider’s win was more comfortable than I expected, and with Trump and Rauner on the ballot in 2 years, Schneider has a chance to keep the seat for a while.
Comment by slow down Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:00 pm
I predicted that the HRO would have a net gain of 5 seats. I was 1 off. But man I blew the Comptroller prediction. If only they had started with the cash and ads earlier.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:00 pm
I really thought Tony had shot against Sara in the 99th. Was never sure he could get over the GOP power base that is Sangamon County, but I was stunned at the margin of victory she got given the large amount of state employees in the 99th.
Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:03 pm
“Thought the Bost race would be competitive.”
I was always a little confused why that race was getting so much attention.
Comment by NIU Grad Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:04 pm
Here in Springfield, thought the union effort would take Sara out; they didn’t. The only question in my mind is was it name recognition, period, or did Rauner’s money also play a big role?
State-wide, thought Kirk would make a better showing than he did.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:04 pm
The Trump plurality runs, especially outside Cook and the Collars, and including pockets of the collars too.
More Republicans came home and stayed “home” allowing decisive victories in downstate IL House seats.
I guessed the +4, but where they happened and where Rauner held serve, and even where Madigan held serve was a miss.
Munger not closing the deal, but dropping the 14+% lead Clinton and Duckworth had to 4% is a huge credit to that Crew.
In the end, Democrats and Labor stayed home for Mendoza enough to get across the finish line. Rauner should be happy with where Munger’s numbers were, given the margins and turnout in 2016, and where 2018 turnout MAY be, Rauner should feel real good about 2018.
Rauner ended up with the +4 House seats, but how he got there, with Trump, and Munger, and the hill with Clinton and Duckworth, the miss for me is under anticipating where Trump helped versus where Rauner held serve and where Drmocrats held serve… and actually lost… that’s the miss for me.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:07 pm
SAP - in my travels and efforts in both districts I think the bluster and angst was a bit overblown. I also think that Tony D’s and Mike Mathis’s campaigns were not as organized or aggressive as they could have been. I was actually more surprised at Avery Bourne’s margin of victory than Sara W. Jimenez’s margin of victory. Both were larger than I expected but Avery winning by 14% was incredible.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:09 pm
Illinois happened about as I expected. I can’t saw the same about the presidential election. The most Illinois-centric I can keep is that I was more surprised by Michigan going orange than Wisconsin.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:09 pm
Two things. First, while intellectually I realized that LaSalle County was trending Republican, I was still surprised when the Republicans pretty much swept the local elections.
Second, I expected the Democrats to pick up 2 to 3 seats, to pretty much balance out the Republican gains.
Comment by G'Kar Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:10 pm
76th State Rep. Madigan/Mautino landed on Skoog harder than I expected. Although it did cost Long /Rauner $90 per vote to get it done. Barely. Blue again in 2 early prediction.
Comment by Augie Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:11 pm
NIU - yeah, me either. I guess people figured that the 12th CD would be more competitive in a presidential year.
Along the same lines as CJ Baricevic losing and losing big it was interesting that his father, John, lost his judicial position the same evening.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:13 pm
I’m surprised the Democratic Party did so poorly, with so many not voting. Expected this from Republicans instead.
Comment by Wensicia Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:14 pm
Thing I got most wrong this election was thinking most white Christian women were as repulsed by Donald Trump as I was and as repulsed by the Republican Party as I was for putting him forward. I knew Trump’s anti-NAFTA, anti-immigrant stuff would make big inroads with the white working class against Clinton but I wasn’t expecting the GOP downballot to benefit from them as much as it did or as many suburbanite/exurban professionals to stick with him.
The other thing I got wrong was thinking the Fire Madigan strategy would fail again as it had all the other times. Although Mendoza prevailed I think that one was Munger linking her opponent to Madigan so late in the game it couldnt cut through the clutter.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:15 pm
I thought house would be more of a wash with some pick ups in Chicago area offsetting downstate losses. Trumps win and margin in tradionally close downstate counties. The rest in Illinois was not a surprise
Comment by David Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:15 pm
I thought DelGiorno would defeat Jimenez in a squeaker.
Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:18 pm
I knew that the Downstate Democrats, both incumbents and challengers would be in close races but expected that many would prevail. Obviously I was wrong on most.
I had been sensing that there would be some changes but not to this extent. And what surprised me even more was the margin of victory in many races, especially the Appellate Court
Southern Illinois used to be fairly predictably Blue, but it seems to have turned bright Red.
Comment by illini Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:18 pm
Team Sleep,
The Baricevic double loss reminded me of the Karmeier/Maag race in which Maag lost both the Supreme Court race, as well as his own retention on the Appellate court.
Baricevic’s decision to “retire” from the bench to run for the seat (rather than face a 60% retention vote) likely cast a pall that impacted both father and son’s races.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:19 pm
Voter turnout was the most unexpected for me, and disappointing. Now you have people protesting election results who didn’t even bother to vote. SMH.
Comment by Casual observer Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:20 pm
A) Munger would lose by more. Due to the top of the ticket, and evidenced by Clinton and Duckworth margins, I really thought Munger would suffer a similar fate regardless what Rauner spent. Pleasantly surprised Illinois voters went deeper than that.
B) Net gain for GOP. Again, the Presidential year, coupled with Madigan’s track record of taking advantage of his map, I thought would lead to a break-even or, at worst for Madigan, a couple of seats - Mautino’s and maybe one other target downstate - switching. That the GOP won 5-1 for a net 4 was the biggest surprise, along with the effectiveness of Rauner’s anti-Madigan message.
And a side note: I wonder what all of that anti-Madigan money means for Lisa. They obviously are two different people, but that last name has to have some negative weight to it now - like “Ryan” in 2002.
Comment by LessAnon? Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:20 pm
Surprised Gary Johnson only received four percent. Hoped he would get the magic five.
Comment by yeah Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:22 pm
Downstate - good analysis. I think the voters in the Metro East have really tuned into judicial shenanigans.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:23 pm
I was wrong thinking that Trump would poll poorly among non-college educated women. I also thought (but was skeptical) that Comey’s follow-up on 11/6 could unring the bell he struck on 10/28
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:24 pm
I was wrong about the margin of Wojcicki Jimenez’ victory. I pegged it at around 10 points. Her huge won is due to her work ethic and great ground game by volunteers and staff. For all the union talk about taking that seat, they failed miserably. Madigan is more of an issue in the 99th than the Governor.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:26 pm
I thought McAulliffe was going to lose in a close race. Great job by his team getting him reelected.
Comment by Been There Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:26 pm
I was way, way off on Munger.
Comment by thunderspirit Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:32 pm
2:26 - during walks & knocks I got that same sense.
Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:36 pm
I was surprised by the overwhelming negativity of the campaigns. There is no mandate FOR anything.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:38 pm
I hoped Tony DelGiorno would win the 99th, but when Sara’s negative mailers started piling up in my mailbox and then remembering that this part of the district supported Bryce Benton over Sam McCann, I saw my glimmer of hope disappear. It had nothing to do with her work ethic; my neighborhood saw neither hide nor hair of her. It’s just a solid R area, no matter who runs.
Comment by Silent Budgeteer Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:39 pm
Not a shock, but surprising in shear numbers; how many suburban Republican women supported Hillary. It was clearly their stronger feelings against Trump, but they’ve really disliked Hillary for a long time. Surprised they went as far as voting “for” her, instead of 3rd party of leaving it blank.
Mildly surprised by Dold/Schneider. Same dynamic. Dold ran away from Trump and they still nicked him for it. They opted into the minority in the chamber. That district really had some masterful cartography done.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:44 pm
Continue to be surprised how accurate “Idiocracy” is in describing electorate. Did not expect Brucie to be less hated than Madigan.
Comment by d.p.gumby Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:52 pm
===That so many women could vote for Trump still confuses me.===
That some of his staunchest advocates on my FB feed are women is most interesting. I scratch my head, too.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:54 pm
===Hoped he would get the magic five.===
So much for the “tronc effect”.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:55 pm
Running away from Trump may have hurt IL Republicans. It seemed like the smart thing to do at the time, but we will never know.
Comment by jeffinginchicago Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:57 pm
Thought Munger would squeek it out — probably mesmerized by good ad.
A guy: enough with the “cartography” factor. Dold won and lost with the same map.
Pretty much predicted most of the rest in Illinois. Nationally, Dems forgot the first rule of political messaging: it’s first and foremost about economics. The rest is gravy.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:58 pm
I called it right, right down the line.
It’s a first.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 2:59 pm
Forby. Never thought that guy could be beaten.
Comment by Saluki Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:04 pm
==A guy: enough with the “cartography” factor. Dold won and lost with the same map.==
That map changes it’s effect every two years. It frustrates both sides. The cartography = $100M in 10 years of media/collateral. The cartography is a huge deal there. Huge.
No dissin’ you. Just, it’s a biggie.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:15 pm
Trump obviously. And seeing the Metro East starting to turn red after generations of monolithic blue still surprises me.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:21 pm
Team Sleep,
Thanks. Will be interesting to see what impact the Metro East elections and Appellate court switch will have on the infamous court decisions from that region.
Comment by Downstate Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:26 pm
Surprised Munger lost.
Not really surprised about Trump. I was following the “No-Tossups” on RealClearPolitics, and election morning it was Clinton by 272-266, so I figured Trump had a chance to pick up 3 for the tie-win and 4 for the win.
Comment by OldIllini Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 3:32 pm
Madison county going red, especially with SIUE in trouble.
Comment by PENSIONS ARE OFF LIMITS Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 4:06 pm
Wrong about Trump - in all respects - but in Illinois his effect in helping some contested IL state races go GOP.
Comment by peon Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 5:14 pm
Surprised the suburbs did not lose a rep or Senator and the Hillary margin was as big as it was.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 5:34 pm
Munger’s loss. The comptroller’s office runs itself but it was an unlikely bragging rights loss for Rauner. Mendoza doesn’t seem like a quick study so it’s good that the office runs itself.
Comment by justacitizen Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 6:45 pm
Avery thought she was toast
Comment by northsidenomore Wednesday, Nov 16, 16 @ 6:57 pm
“What did you get most wrong about your own 2016 campaign predictions?”
DuPage County went blue for the third presidential election in a row. https://www.dailyherald.com/article/20161113/news/161119605/
I sure would’ve lost that bet…
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 8:58 am