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* Fran Spielman…
Before leading a huge delegation of movers and shakers on a trip to Rome to attend the elevation of Archbishop Blase Cupich to cardinal, Emanuel put in a last-minute pitch for the state budget deal that would give business leaders the “certainty” they crave to invest in Chicago and Illinois.
“The world is, in many ways, an uncertain place. And companies go to and expand where there is certainty about the future — where they think they can have the best potential to grow. They invest in certainty,” the mayor said.
“Springfield’s uncertainty is what undermines the state of Illinois, which I find Chicago located in, sometimes much to my chagrin. Springfield getting a budget — Springfield getting its financial overall house in order — would create certainty that would help us economically [to] grow. The uncertainty in Springfield is the biggest drag on the economic well- being of, not only the state but potentially Chicago.”
The delegation to Rome includes Rauner and his wife, Diana and Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) and Senate President John Cullerton (D-Chicago) and their wives.
So, there’s at least a chance for political bonding that could lead to deal-making. Or at the very least, a few prayers for an end to the political stalemate in Illinois.
* The Question: Do you think a deal to end the impasse will happen by the end of January’s lame duck session or will we see another stopgap? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:47 pm
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Previous Post: Jobs up, but IDES disappointed
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==Illinois, which I find Chicago located in, sometimes much to my chagrin.==
To many downstate, the feeling is mutual
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:52 pm
The Governor picked up seats. He thinks he has one. I expect him to double down.
Unfortunately, in bashing unions, he stumbled on the one issue where Democrats really can’t cave.
This is not going to end as long as Rauner is Governor of Illinois.
Comment by Gooner Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:53 pm
I was under the impression that Speaker Madigan was not going to be in Rome.
Comment by Colin O'Scopey Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:54 pm
To the post, deal or neither, in that order. On the heels of the AFSCME decision, I don’t see Rauner backing down
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:54 pm
I voted stopgap. We’ve established a decent framework in the last year under Governor Rauner’s “leadership” for pretending to do something (stopgaps) instead of doing literally nothing like his first year.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:54 pm
“Do you think a deal to end the impasse will happen by the end of January’s lame duck session or will we see another stopgap?”
I was torn between stopgap and neither.
All sides of this problem believe that they are politically savvy enough to find some advantage in the chaos to come. When everyone thinks they have (or will have) the upper-hand in the months ahead, there is no incentive for them to compromise on a deal before February.
But I sure hope I’m wrong.
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:55 pm
Correction — believes he has won.
Comment by Gooner Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:55 pm
I just don’t see any reason to think a deal will happen anytime soon. As far as a stopgap goes, I would say maybe but GOP leaders don’t seem to like that idea. So, I voted neither.
Comment by Give Me A Break Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:56 pm
Voted stopgap. Everything feels the same, so my thought is, why wouldn’t the same “solution” be reached?
Comment by AlfondoGonz Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:57 pm
Vote stopgap.
Past is best predicter.
Team Rauner still seems to be convinced they are #winning, and until they no longer think that, they have no reason to do anything but up the ante. At the same time, Democrats have nothing to gain by agreeing to a deal, since they believe that what Rauner is demanding will undoubtedly lead to a death spiral. Refusing the deal may lead to a death spiral as well, but they will take the uncertain demise over the certain death.
This is basic game theory, and Negotiating 101.
As for the papal visit: these folks all had a Christmas party together in 2014, didn’t they?
Comment by Juvenal Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 1:59 pm
Voted stopgap. These characters seem to love the worst possible option almost every time. So why not?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:04 pm
Neither. A budget requires a tax hike. The GOP fresh off the giddiness of legislative gains due to $ and anti-govt wave in downstate will continue to push TA. Madigan is angry over the vilification during the campaign and the fact their money flows from labor groups will not agree to anti-union measures.
I fear the stopgap formula will be followed throughout the Rauner term. The next stopgap will come later in the session.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:06 pm
===To many downstate, the feeling is mutual===
To that end I think that ‘downstate’, especially depending on which part of our large state you think you’re referring to, has dramatically benefited from the state’s decision to place a huge majority of it’s state employees in Central Illinois, to place almost all of the public universities outside of Chicagoland, almost all of the corrections facilities, and that the net impact of direct and indirect employment received from direct and indirect state employees is huge.
There are a lot of folks that seem keen to bite the hand that feeds them without taking a moment to recognize that no one else is lining up to feed them.
I voted neither. We need revenue. At this point unless the Pope performs a miracle, I think the most likely way to a tax increase is a default on the bonds and a judicial court order.
Which would also make bond holders a lot of money at the public expense.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:06 pm
Good points Norseman.
You are right that stopgap won’t happen until state is at the brink, and that brink won’t come in January.
I’d like to switch my vote to “Neither.”
Comment by Juvenal Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:13 pm
Neither. Always bet on no action.
The real problem is, both Madigan and Rauner think they are in better shape than the other. So they both dig in all the more.
The truth is, both are in poor shape … and the State’s miserable financial condition is getting considerably worse.
Comment by Deft Wing Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:15 pm
Stopgap to open the schools.
Squeeze the beast is the objective, not an unintended consequence. The governor can’t even keep his alleged pre-conditions straight.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:27 pm
Neither, for the same reasons -Norseman- stated.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:34 pm
Word,
Schools are open. All year. Education got a full year budget already.
Comment by Gone Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:38 pm
I think the Dems give on term limits and Workers’ Comp.
Comment by TominChicago Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:42 pm
I see no movement until something changes. If the courts stop requiring expenditures without a budget, parts if the system will collapse quickly and action will be required.
Madigan will wait until he no longer has an imaginary supermajority. He seems to be following the strategy of Fabius. A lot of Italy was pillaged, but he won.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:49 pm
Voted neither. Another stopgap will just give the Governor more wiggle room, and I don’t think the speaker is in the mood for six more months of that game.
Comment by A Jack Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:51 pm
I voted deal just because maybe enough rank and filers will finally speak up to force it. That, and I’m just feeling saucy.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 2:56 pm
Neither. Republicans cannot vote for taxes after the brutal ad campaign we just suffered through. Without revenue there can be no budget.
Comment by Chicago Barb Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:06 pm
Voted “Neither” How about June or July 7117 same date backwards
Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:08 pm
Neither. Impasse, impasse, impasse.
Comment by RIJ Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:10 pm
Spielman calls them movers and shakers. It should be shaky immovable objects.
Comment by jimk849 Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:15 pm
My belief is this…
Neither.
But here’s the rub…
Everything points to the very smart assessment by - Norseman -, but - wordslinger - bringing up K-12 funding might be the only breakaway.
The Democrats would be wise after the new GA is sworn in to see how Raunerites want this all broken out, piece meal to get a deal, but then it’s a default “neither” due to timing.
The mere fact this governor, Governor Rauner does NOT want a budget first and last, but shuffles preconditions so heartlessly, even saving K-12 is iffy right now.
Voted “Neither”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:23 pm
Madigan has no reason to use his super majority to do anything at this point. Once the new house is seated, Rauner’s marchers will have to take some of the heat if they can’t pin it all on Madigan and his veto override powers anymore. I say they are either smart enough to see that and work on a budget voluntarily, or run the risk Being exposed as partially to blame for the gridlock.
Comment by Harvest76 Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:30 pm
Voted stopgap. I don’t see anything really new or different since the election, and a stopgap enables the Governor and legislators to continue to mask the seriousness of the situation so the power struggle at the top can continue, and individual legislators can continue their hand-wringing about the awful mess without summoning the courage to act in the state’s best interests. I’m normally a glass half-full person, but if the impact thus far from this slow-motion collision hasn’t triggered action, why should any more carnage inflicted on the invisible have any effect?
Comment by Johnny Tractor Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:32 pm
Neither, for the reasons Norseman and OW gave. The Gov thinks time is on his side. he will keep moving the goalpost and stretching this out in the hope that the Democrats will eventually give him what he wants.
Comment by The Dude Abides Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:33 pm
I voted Neither because Rauner will not give in. No tax hike unless we get the reforms he wants. I agree with this because tax hikes by themselves won’t solve the problem.
Comment by Dandy Edward Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:53 pm
Neither. Not sure way Rauner hates IL but he does. He has no intention of changing this situation other than to make it more difficult for the Dems.
Comment by Belle Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 3:53 pm
I voted neither too. Especially with the tension and political bad mouthing still going on between the two parties. I wonder maybe though with AFSCME impasse issue, it could be the pawn that breaks open the talks and giving rauner a reform in exchange for him to start contract talks again. That is if the democrats are for the unions this could maybe help in easing the tension.
Comment by State Worker Bob Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:09 pm
Neither. K-12 is funded through the end of this school year. Nothing else is strong enough to provide enough pressure.
Comment by Earnest Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:11 pm
Voted Neither. Unless GOP puts up some votes for an income tax increase…which seems unlikely.
Comment by Winnin' Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 4:29 pm
So, without a stopgap, all of higher ed, will yet, once again, be held hostage.
My Alma Mater will survive but I fear for Chicago State, EIU and WIU.
I voted stopgap, when first posted, but Willy, Norseman and Wordslinger have caused me to reconsider. I am less hopeful than I was earlier today - too many factors and party dynamics involved to get this done.
Comment by illini Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 6:37 pm
Rauner is already winning the war of words. People on this blog keep referring to his outrageous demands as “reforms” without a sense of irony. Geez Louise…
Comment by DuPage Dave Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 7:09 pm
Neither not near even upside for the GOP -
Comment by cannon649 Thursday, Nov 17, 16 @ 8:55 pm
Madigan, flew on a separate plane.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 18, 16 @ 8:40 am