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Nearly two years into Illinois’ historic budget impasse, a majority of Illinois residents disapprove of the jobs being done by Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale. The poll asked whether respondents approved or disapproved of the job being done by the Governor and the four legislative leaders.
The Simon Poll was conducted Saturday, March 4th to Saturday, March 11th. The sample included 1,000 registered voters and a margin for error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Sixty percent of the interviews were conducted on cell phones.
Both political leaders are underwater with voters statewide. Roughly six in ten disapprove of the job being done by both Madigan (61 percent) and Rauner (58 percent). Last October’s Simon Poll showed Madigan’s disapproval rating at 63 percent and Rauner’s at 55 percent.
“Clearly, both political leaders are taking a beating with voters as the Statehouse stalemate nears the two-year mark, and the gap between the two is shrinking,” said Jak Tichenor, interim director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute. “It’s not good news at all for either man, both of whose political fortunes are at risk heading into next year’s elections.” Rauner is seeking his second term in 2018 and Madigan will defend his 67-seat Democratic majority in the 118-member House after losing a net four seats last November.
“We have tested Gov. Rauner’s job approval four times since he took office, and two findings jump out at us,” said Charlie Leonard, a former visiting professor at the Institute, and one of the designers of the poll. “First is that the governor’s approval rating, since Spring of 2015, right after he assumed office, has remained relatively steady in the high 30s to low 40s, though at 36 percent it’s the lowest we have seen. Second is that his disapproval rating has grown consistently, from 31 disapproving in March 2015 to 58 percent today—almost doubling.
Statewide, Rauner’s results show 36 percent somewhat approve or strongly approve of his performance, while 58 percent somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove. That compares with a 40 percent approval rating and 55-percent disapproval rating last October.
Rauner fares worst with voters in the City of Chicago, where 64 percent disapprove of his performance while 31 percent approve. Rauner edges closer to positive territory in downstate Illinois, where 38 percent approve of the job he’s doing compared to 56 percent who disapprove. In the suburbs of Cook and the collar counties, he remains in negative territory with 58 percent disapproving and 37 approving.
Speaker Madigan’s disapproval ratings also remain in negative territory with 61 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving and 26 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving. Madigan scored 63 percent disapproving overall last year with 26 percent approving.
Madigan’s best job approval ratings came in the City of Chicago, where 28 percent approve and 60 percent disapprove. His suburban Cook and collar counties job approval ratings are 27 percent approve to 60 percent disapprove. Downstate voters were least generous in their assessment of Madigan’s tenure with 64 percent disapproving and 23 percent approving.
Voters do not appear to have picked heavy favorites or shown a strong dislike for the remaining three legislative leaders. In the case of Senate President John Cullerton, 39 percent somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of his performance while 25 percent approve and 32 percent are not sure. Last fall, 41 percent disapproved, 26 percent approved, and 29 percent weren’t sure.
Voters were also less conclusive about the job performances of Senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno and House Republican Leader Jim Durkin. Leader Radogno’s job approval stands at 27 percent statewide, compared with a disapproval rating of 26 percent. An overwhelming 45 percent were not sure. In the case of Leader Durkin, 31 percent approved, 36 percent disapproved, and 29 percent were unsure. [Emphasis added.]
So, more Chicagoans approve of Rauner’s job performance than Madigan’s.
Let that sink in a bit.
* Either way, both of these guys are hugely unpopular. The toplines (click here) show that just 11 percent strongly approve of Gov. Rauner’s performance, while just 5 percent strongly approve of Madigan’s. Another 39 percent strongly disapprove of Rauner’s performance. Madigan’s strong disapprove number is 44 percent.
* Click here for the crosstabs. Only 27 percent of Republicans strongly approve of Rauner’s job performance (63 percent overall). But just 9 percent of Democrats strongly approve of Madigan’s performance (only 40 percent overall approve).
On the other hand, 14 percent of Republicans strongly disapprove of Rauner’s job performance and 31 percent overall disapprove, which is pretty high. But 27 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove of Madigan’s job performance while 47 percent overall disapprove, so he’s underwater with his own party.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:23 am
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Considering Madigan has always been unpopular, his precipitous drop in approval is even more striking. There goes that talking point for Gov. Crisis.
Comment by Stark Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:32 am
With these bad poll numbers I just don’t think Mike Madigan can get elected Governor in 2018.
Comment by The Captain Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:33 am
The obvious difference is that Madigan doesn’t have to run statewide to maintain his grip on power. Rauner on the other hand heads into a reelection fight with 58% of registered voters disapproving of his performance. Not going to be easy. Not at all.
Comment by slow down Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:34 am
Rauner is running on 2 things, his own popularity, and Madigan’s unpopularity. Both of those seem to be moving in the wrong direction for him.
Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:34 am
So in the general election, the Democratic candidate for governor will need to work 24/7 to distance himself from Mike Madigan, and the Republican candidate for governor will need to work 24/7 to distance himself fr–
Hmmm…
– MrJM
Comment by @MisterJayEm Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:34 am
they’re gonna need to convince every one of those voters in that margin that the D name on the Governor line on the ballot = Mike Madigan.
Comment by JohnnyPyleDriver Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:34 am
===that the D name on the Governor line on the ballot = Mike Madigan===
That’s obviously the plan. The ILGOP press releases pretty much prove it.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:36 am
After two years and millions of dollars spent trying to destroy Speaker Madigan, Rauner is equal to Madigan in disapproval (within the margin of error). Wow that’s a lot of money to end up just as despised.
Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:37 am
Rauner is toast. He knows it. He’s going down swinging in his last two years.
The Paul Simon Institute. More useless ‘higher ed’ resources. My friend Paul would not be happy.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:38 am
I guess if I was Rauner I’d pray daily for Mike Madigan to run for Governor.
A Republican Governor, running statewide in a midterm of a Republican president that lost Illinois by 15 points, and this governor is not only upside down, the trend is continuing downward… while having no budget, social services closing and higher education bleeding.
Better run more Diana Rauner ads…
“I’m a Democrat and I’m for Bruce”
Right? Exactly right.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:39 am
Rauner runs state wide and these are state wide numbers — Madigan runs in his district so these state wide numbers are of much less effect on him. In other words, Rauner owns the this mess!
Comment by facts are stubborn things Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:39 am
===More useless ‘higher ed’ resources===
The polls are privately funded.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:40 am
Yet his Minions elected him again as Speaker and to stay the course(shipwrecked) and to continue to watch Illinois fall farther into the abyss. The course they charted with their past policies that are not good for the citizens of Illinois. The downfall that started long before Rauner was Governor.
Comment by Arock Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:43 am
Meh, I would consider myself a Democrat who does not approve of the Speaker’s job performance.
But in the fight between him and the Governor, I know whose side I’m on.
Comment by Juice Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:45 am
@- Arock - Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:43 am:
=Yet his Minions elected him again as Speaker and to stay the course(shipwrecked) and to continue to watch Illinois fall farther into the abyss. The course they charted with their past policies that are not good for the citizens of Illinois. The downfall that started long before Rauner was Governor.=
actually under PQ and the dems in the legislature, we were getting this state back on track. Back bills were being reduced and pension payments were being made.
Comment by facts are stubborn thingss Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:50 am
Any chance at all that Madigan steps down as Speaker to defuse this line of attack?
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:53 am
===The downfall that started long before Rauner was Governor.===
And yet Rauner scuttled the Grand Bargainto try to get a budget.
Rauner is underwater because OF himself and no one else.
Your ridiculous comment doesn’t explain how Rauner’s numbers are so awful.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:54 am
How about a year from now the Speaker says he will retire if and only if Rauner is defeated? That way Madigan can allow people to cast a vote against him that also gets rid of Rauner. That’s a “two-fer” choice a lot of Illinoisans apparently could endorse.
Comment by Decaf Coffee Party Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:54 am
So basically, since the last poll, Madigan’s disapproval dropped, while Rauner’s disapproval increased.
No matter how hard he tries, the person Rauner will run against will not be Mike Madigan. It’s a stupid strategy, full stop.
The real takeaway is that Rauner is tied (within MOE) with Madigan in disapproval, despite spending a fortune. I’m sorry folks, these numbers are not evidence of an effective strategy. At all.
Comment by ILPundit Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:54 am
@Arock - oh please, stop the Rauner as victim line. Unpaid bill backlog up 200% under Rauner after Quinn decreased it.
Comment by Illinois O'Malley Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:55 am
Jim Durkin, the most liked legislative leader.
Boom.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:59 am
==How about a year from now the Speaker says he will retire if and only if Rauner is defeated?==
I think that would backfire. People don’t like their votes getting mucked up with other issues.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 10:59 am
Having trouble with Rauner’s numbers. 64% in the city 56% in down state and 58% in suburbs. If these were weighted equally the over all number would be 59%
My point is that those areas are not weighted equally. More voters in Chicago and sun burns than down state
I would assume with this weighted he is more around 62%
Comment by Compromise requires two sides Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:00 am
The most striking thing to me is how similar Rauner and Madigan’s disapproval numbers are. I think that the “Because Madigan!” play much trickier to pull off. Hillary Clinton can tell you it’s hard to run against the least popular politician when you’re right behind him, and she at least actually had her guy’s name on the ballot.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:01 am
If Madigan were to step down as Speaker, it would just be “Madigan and the Speaker he controls”.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:01 am
@bluedog - with all respect you are way off base when you make these kinds of statements -
“The Paul Simon Institute. More useless ‘higher ed’ resources. My friend Paul would not be happy.”
I am 57 and knew Paul all my life - my parents grew up with him in their late teens and early 2o’s. My family and I were always close with him.
Your feeble attempt to tarnish the legacy of a dedicated public official and his legacy Institute
seems little more than an attempt to get attention and to attempt to distract from the good work that the Institute does. Sad.
Comment by illini Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:06 am
Another thing I’m noticing: Rauner’s numbers aren’t holding up in the suburbs anymore. That’s very, very dangerous. He’s got no where where he can count on votes and only needs to worry about maximizing turnout.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:06 am
Speaker Madigan is a State Representative, not a statewide official, so Rauner’s bashing him statewide is nothing more than useless hot air. However, his daughter Lisa a statewide official. When he bashes Speaker Madigan, is Rauner’s real goal to put Lisa, the IL Attorney General, out of office, by confusing people at the polls?
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:08 am
Once again I beg the Dems to find an effective counter for the “…but Madigan!” argument. Yes, it’s true that Madigan himself has only to answer to the voters in his district, but to the extent that he is toxic to the brand of Dems running anywhere (see Linda Chapa-LaVia), this needs to be neutralized. Branding Repubs with the Trump-Rauner label will not be enough.
Comment by pawn Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:09 am
Waitin’ for the second set of results to questions like approve/disapprove on crippling cuts to higher ed./help for injured works/[paying cops, firefighters, teachers, etc.
oh wait, they didn’t get those questions in. hmmm.
Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:14 am
The Speaker will never retire as long as Rauner remains governor of IL.
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:15 am
“Branding Repubs with the Trump-Rauner label will not be enough.”
Why would the association with the Trump-Rauners’ destruction of country & state not be enough to beat them? What am I missing here?
Comment by Mama Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:18 am
It took Madigan 40 years and $50 million Rauner dollars to get to 61%. It took Rauner two years to get to 58%.
Comment by Ed Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:19 am
I hope we can all agree the number one problem facing the state of Illinois is a budget. I think we might all be able to further agree that the one person most standing in the way of a budget is Gov. Rauner who continues to insist on non budget items. If Rauner would quit demonizing the speaker of the house and say he is willing to negotiate a tough cuts and revenue budget (no TA items) this thing would be done in a month or two. MJM has shown that he can negotiate with just about anybody if you don’t trash him and if you are willing to solve problems in moderation and not the extreme. If you expect Dems to say yes here are your TA items and please let us get blamed for a tax hike nothing is going to get done.
Comment by facts are stubborn things Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:21 am
=When he bashes Speaker Madigan, is Rauner’s real goal to put Lisa, the IL Attorney General, out of office, by confusing people at the polls?=
No. His goal is to drive home the message that democrat = Madigan. And that’s any democrat. Doesn’t matter if it’s Lisa Madigan or any rep or senator. It’s the most effective card that Rauner has and he’s played it fairly well. This has always been a long game (and that’s why short term goals like a budget are inconsequential. It’s all about getting enough republicans elected to change the balance of power. It will be interesting to see how it plays out in 2018.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:21 am
–My friend Paul would not be happy.–
Paul Simon founded the Paul Simon Institute and established its mission.
Try to be secure in your own credibility when expressing your opinion. The dead can’t defend themselvess when you try to elevate yourself by claiming to speak for them.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:25 am
Mama, if we learned anything in the last election, it was that we can’t just point out the flaws of the other side. We have to (1) have a positive message and (2) neutralize the effective bad messages. What was the Dem’s answer to Crooked Hillary?
Comment by pawn Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:28 am
===nothing more than useless hot air===
Yeah, OK. Ask Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia. That hot air just scored her a third place finish in Auora.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:39 am
If only Madigan were on my ballot
or
Rauner could count to 30 or 60!!/s
Comment by WhoKnew Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:39 am
Word. You know nothing.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:57 am
LOL, sorry BD, didn’t know you were in contact with Dead Paul Simon as to his unhappiness about the Paul Simon Institute conducting a poll.
What else are prominent dead people telling you? I bet they agree with you a lot.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:04 pm
=Word. You know nothing.=
Great post, you are the master of debate! /s
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:10 pm
To the Post,
These numbers don’t negate campaign truths;
You can beat someone with no one. If you can’t win being positive, go negative. A sitting Illinois governor is a tough incumbent to beat.
I see a couple ways to beat Rauner, but let’s just stay with the “public ones” that have been discussed.
Mike Noonan ain’t wrong.
The premise a self-financed candidate willing to go NINE figures in their own race and include the General Assembly is the most straight-forward of the “ways”.
Rauner will probably spend (in ways other than direct, or even direct) $7-10 million to gum up the works in the Democratic primary, which will be crowded and expensive for some running.
It will be the chance for Rauner to “Beta Test” the negatives needed to win for Rauner, given Rauner’s own lacking.
The rub here is “governors own”. Rauner himself proved that premise that has been proven many times before. Where Noonan comes in is… forget the “field”, the “field” needs to make this about Rauner. Any and every dime used to go after a primary opponent, Rauner will match in the primary too, so deep pockets need to focus on “governors own”
Now, Rauner is going to link anyone and everyone to Madigan. Ok. You know this. No surprises. Be smarter on taking Rauner to task… ” Bruce Rauner failed at doing his Job”…
The poll here is indicative to Rauner failing. When the focus becomes Madigan, or something else, it gets more expensive.
The end game is the 3 prongs, Labor, Democrats, and turnout.
If Rauner controls turnout, Madigan will sink any Dem, statewide or not.
The Democratic nominee, if the control Labor and Dems and turn them out, that will sink Rauner
They need a United message (Bruce Rauner failed) and the commitment to build a turnout machine that will feed upon itself and float all boats, and make Rauner, like Quinn, the reason to vote… because Rauner failed.
A self-funder with one Crew focused on getting Labor and Dems to turn out, and another Crew solely focused on messaging, 24/7/365… they have a shot.
That’s one way. One.
But these numbers are only good to defeat Rauner if you can control Labor, Dems, turnout… and that uniting message… with big time dollars.
Even now, tough ask.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:12 pm
IlliNI. We probably know each other then. But you are a bit young. I probably should have phrased my comment more on the lines that my friend Paul would have a hard time recognizing what he originally set out to do.I know it is not the entity I remember. This man was never for sale to the highest bidder. He was, and still is my favorite politician of all time. You could disagree with him vehemently(and we often did) but he still respected your opinion.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:18 pm
Rich–you miss the point–who cares where Madigan’s numbers are-unless you are polling his district. Madigan doesn’t run statewide. The Gov. does. Rauner’s political team is good–but they are going to have to be flawless to pull this one off.
Comment by Tom Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:19 pm
===unless you are polling his district===
Or Aurora, or southern Illinois, or Kankakee County, or…
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:20 pm
- Tom -,
The odds are against challengers in Gubernatorial races.
Throw in if that challeger in the General gets sidetracked with Madigan, loses site of “governors own”, can’t turn out Dems or Labor against Rauner, and Rauner uses his own apparatus to turn out the negative Madigan pluses they have stored, while suppressing Dem/Labor turnout in weak areas for both.
Rauner is the favorite. Incumbents are until anyone becomes someone and they prove they can pull off a flawless campaign themselves.
Right now, tough to bet against Rauner.
Today.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:30 pm
- Tom -
In two whole years…
Where o where is the anti-Rauner messaging?
I have heard very little that can even be construed as organized messaging, and let’s be brutally honest and frank… Chance himself did more with his tweets, periscope video, and media presence in 2+ days then Dems and Labor, individually and collectively, have done in those 2+ years.
And Rauner is ready to be beat?
“Really?”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:33 pm
OW–Clinton won the state by 16 points. Tough to bet against Rauner? I’d lay money on his demise all day long.
Comment by Tom Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:34 pm
“And there off! Illinois-bred $500 claimers in the Governor’s Stakes.”
Comment by walker Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:35 pm
Rich: Ask Chapa how many prcts she walked.
Comment by Tom Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:36 pm
Rauner has sure spent a lot of money to make people hate him.
Comment by IllinoisBoi Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:40 pm
- Tom -
Those driven by passion and not organization in political campaigns rarely find themselves the winner in the end.
You may vote against Rauner.
“That’s one!”
Gotta find those pluses, vote ‘em, and win the messaging now, the votes tomorrow.
I appreciate your passion, but passion has yet to organize messaging and ground game by its lonesome.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:41 pm
===Rich: Ask Chapa how many prcts she walked===
Moot.
Chapa LaVia lost.
Had they been organized enough to turnout 300-400 more voters from 54,000+ that didn’t vote…
Ya see why I am “where I am” with Rauner?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:43 pm
OW. I have been predicting a Rauner defeat for a year now. Here’s why. many independents, myself included, voted for Rauner because we thought he was conservative. We all now know that is not true. I may not vote for a Dem candidate unless we can get a conservative one, like Costello II, but I will not vote again for Rauner. This seems to be the common talk around the folks I hang with. This isn’t real scientific polling data, but it is not a coincidence when it comes up that oftend. So Rauner loses because , if nothing else, voter apathy.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:44 pm
I suppose there is no GOP candidate out there with the guts to run against Rauner in the Primary. That’s the only way the GOP has a chance to hang on to the Governor’s seat IMO. Will the GOP members in the Legislature continue to do what Rauner tells them to do until the bitter end or will there be a revolt?
Rauner has to be at least in positive territory Downstate to have a shot and right now his approval/disapproval is -18 there. The 2018 Midterm doesn’t figure to be helpful to him anyway. I think he’s done after one term.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:46 pm
Tom, before you bet against Rauner, I’d suggest you check the historical disparity in vote totals between prez and off-prez years.
The Democratic vote falls off the table in off-prez years while the GOP vote remains relatively strong by comparison.
What actions do you see from the alleged 3D chess master state Dem chair that will motivate the 1.4 million voters who turned out for Clinton but not Quinn?
If the Dems could add a third of those voters, Rauner would
be a goner.
But the Dems have done nothing for two years to build an anti-Rauner campaign, despite the wealth of material that he’s handed them.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 12:51 pm
Tom: Ask the unions how many people they sent to that town to walk precincts.
She didn’t run a great campaign, sure, but she outspent the opposition 2-1, she’s been in office for years, and she still came in third. You MJM guys always blame the candidate. Sometimes, that’s not the whole story. Hey, if you think the Madigan pieces had no impact, fine. Keep on whistling past that plot of land with the marble monuments.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 1:13 pm
That seems like an opening for a Republican to challenge Rauner.
I get that the money would scare somebody off, but “I’m not Rauner” would make up for a lot of cash.
Comment by Gooner Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 1:29 pm
== so he’s underwater with his own party ==
So far, All of the Dem candidates who have emerged have been careful not to criticize Madigan. I suspect that will change. “Blame Rauner-Madigan” will find a receptive audience, even in a Dem primary.
Comment by Roman Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 1:32 pm
How many people would jump at chance to vote in the primary against Rauner?
Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 2:13 pm
As a comparison point. Does anyone have Quinn’s disapproval rating at various points before losing the election?
Comment by Seats Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 2:36 pm
“But the Dems have done nothing for two years to build an anti-Rauner campaign, despite the wealth of material that he’s handed them.”
I agree. That’s malfeasance. You can’t beat someone let alone someone with Rauner’s money just by sitting around waiting for him to beat himself. You have to work with the material, and there’s plenty of it.
Any time Democrats want to stop herding cats and start working on unified messaging and talking points, it’s okay to start.
I like that Comptroller Mendoza has been attacking the governor and hope she keeps it up. As the governor said, we can walk and chew gum at the same time.
A message I like is that the super-rich governor is purposely harming the state and its poorest and most vulnerable residents in order to bust unions and attack the middle class.
Hillary took Rust Belt voters for granted, which appears to have been a lethal mistake. The signs were there–when in the Primary she lost Michigan in a “shocker” and Wisconsin–and in her campaign’s arrogance, they were ignored.
I believe you also have to have an agenda and proposals that would help people–a positive vision and plans. Why should people vote for candidate X?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 2:44 pm
I can see the ad campaign now
Vote Governor Rauner out of office so the most unpopular politician in Illinois can continue to get everything he wants and compromise with no one like the past two years.
I can’t wait to see how the Democratic candidate for Governor tries to distance themselves from the Speaker.
Will the candidate be for term limits, pension reform, redistricting, property tax freeze, workers comp reform, reducing mandates from Springfield and government consolidation?
What would they change in current policy? No specifics so far just Rauner bashing.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:02 pm
- Lucky Pierre -
I refer you to - @MisterJayEm -
===So in the general election, the Democratic candidate for governor will need to work 24/7 to distance himself from Mike Madigan, and the Republican candidate for governor will need to work 24/7 to distance himself fr–
Hmmm…===
Ball game. Well said by - @MisterJayEm - and ridiculously On Point
Governors Own. “Pat Quinn failed”… ask Candidate Rauner.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:07 pm
Keep dreaming and pretending the Turnaround Agenda is not popular OW.
You can’t beat someone with nothing and the Democrats are all about changing nothing. Poll that and see how it goes.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:14 pm
OW you were somehow able two make two completely opposite points in the same thread. Rauner will be tough to beat and now very easy all in the space of a few hours.
Like a human weathervane on a windy day.
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:16 pm
===Keep dreaming and pretending the Turnaround Agenda is not popular…====
Rauner himself is under water. Rauner can’t run against… Rauner and against Madigan, lol.
===You can’t beat someone with nothing and the Democrats are all about changing nothing. Poll that and see how it goes.===
So you agree with - @MisterJayEm -, and Rauner also being under water… or…
“Bruce Rauner failed”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:17 pm
===you were somehow able two make two completely opposite points in the same thread. Rauner will be tough to beat and now very easy all in the space of a few hours.===
No. Reading is fundamental.
The logistics and the political wherewithal to beat Rauner makes him very difficult to beat, actually thinking Rauner today would win.
Your idea(s) as to the why and how it plays with Raunerite talking points here, same as why I think Rauner is tough to beat.
Still have to do it.
Hanging your hat on that, that’s also not going to be easy either.
Campaigns ARE hard.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:21 pm
What kind of mustard do you serve with that pretzel OW?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:28 pm
- Lucky Pierre-
If it were as easy as you think, Rauner wouldn’t be under water in statewide polling.
You think it’ll be a cakewalk. It won’t be. If what you think I’m these talking points will work, why is Rauner under water, that’s what is confusing in your logic.
I see the politics how it will be difficult to beat Rauner, but beat him all the same it can be done.
Again, campaigns are hard.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:36 pm
” If what you think in these talking points will work… “
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:37 pm
Until I see a poll with Governor Rauner losing to an unnamed candidate for Governor whose policies are identical to the most unpopular politician in Illinois for decades I will pay attention.
Madigan is a proxy for the Democratic candidate for Governor
After all they will just blame Rauner for the impasse and disregard the reasons Illinois elected a Republican Governor in the first place
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:44 pm
Democrats incredibly lame to see Madigan poll worse than Rauner. In one way, it’s not a surprise because one guy has a multi million dollar pr machine, and the other guy just takes horrible photos and says little to nothing. Nuts. Dems need to move Madigan out of the way if for no other reason that to create a better look for the party
Comment by Molly Maguire Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 4:55 pm
===Until I see a poll with Governor Rauner losing to an unnamed candidate for Governor…===
I’ll just stop you there. You take it for what it’s worth. Losing 47-32.
“Grain of salt” and all…
http://bit.ly/2ntTxOW
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:01 pm
Daily Kos says Rauner will lose to an unnamed candidate with no message and he should just take his 50 million dollars and go home.
Has the Daily Kos ever run a story in it’s entire existence that was favorable to a Republican?
Well that settles it, stick a fork in him
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:18 pm
You asked me for a poll. I gave you a poll.
I didn’t say anything about the commentary. Not one thing. You did.
You can dismiss Anzalone Liszt Grove and American Heart Association too… on the piling part.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:22 pm
LP, you asked to see a poll of Rauner vs. an unnamed Democrat and you got one commissioned by the American Heart Association.
Predictably, since it didn’t go your way, you ignore what you asked for and change the subject.
just dazzling, You’re the Rupert Putki of spin.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:24 pm
“polling”
My own comments are mine, Daily Koz has their own.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:24 pm
American Heart Association LOL
When did they enter politics?
Last Daily Kos poll had Rauner losing 99-1
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:53 pm
===Last Daily Kos poll had Rauner losing 99-1===
That’s not true…
===American Heart Association LOL
When did they enter politics===
They have lobbyist and an agenda
Can’t refute the poll, try to discredit where it came and what it means?
This is remedial, even for you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 5:58 pm
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 11:39 am:
===nothing more than useless hot air===
Yeah, OK. Ask Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia. That hot air just scored her a third place finish in Auora.===
With all due respect, Rich, she lost because she didn’t bother to work. Her opponents took to the streets and she costed. She assumed labor money would win it for her.
Comment by Dolphin Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 6:41 pm
===…she (Chapa LaVia) lost because she didn’t bother to work.===
When 16% of the whole electorate turn out to vote and you lose by 400 votes out of 54,000 voters who didn’t even bother to vote, that’s a huge Crew failure, given that Chapa LaVia was a many times over an incumbent in the General Assembly and she had the money to reinforce who she is. The Crew neglected to find pluses and vote them.
Marry that to those motivated within the 16% that were hammered with anti-Madigan mail, it would be foolish to think the Chapa LaVia - Madigan connection wasn’t a motivating factor in the 16% that did vote and didn’t vote Chapa LaVia.
A Crew that could get their pluses out, and understand a low turnout and negative mail would’ve done better in finding pluses at a rate of 0.7% of 54,000 non-voters.
The negative had impact.
===Her opponents took to the streets and she costed.===
The Crew couldn’t find 6-7 more votes a precinct? Hmm. Lots of “off the hook” here. Given the mail program against her, thru thought a cushion of pluses was a waste?
===She assumed labor money would win it for her.===
… until the negative Anti-Madigan Mail hit… Or…
Please say I’m a Chapa LaVia apologist, you’d be wrong, no Half way about it.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Mar 15, 17 @ 6:54 pm
Are we headed for a new century club?
Comment by Whatever Thursday, Mar 16, 17 @ 8:55 am