Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Kennedy on Pritzker/Blagojevich FBI tapes: “Completely sick behavior”
Next Post: *** UPDATED x1 *** Another hostage goes down
Posted in:
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
House Speaker Michael Madigan was his usual self during the final week of the General Assembly’s spring session, passing bills to make one point or another, but not actually accomplishing anything.
Bills are routinely moved in the House for the sole purpose of creating TV ads, or direct mail pieces or newspaper headlines. Madigan’s only real ideology is maintaining his majority, and he doesn’t consider that to be a bad thing. And maintaining that majority has been inextricably tied for two long years to stopping Gov. Bruce Rauner at every turn, despite Madigan’s repeated claims that he’s cooperating and that Rauner should just accept a win and move on.
But whatever else you can say about Madigan, he’s not wrong about that last part. The governor could’ve accepted a two-year property tax freeze proposed by both Senate Democrats and Republicans as a down payment on reform. That freeze would’ve gotten him through the 2018 election and he could’ve warned voters that the Democrats would never pass another freeze if he was defeated.
The Senate’s freeze proposal even included provisions for local referendums in 2018 to let voters decide whether or not to keep their freezes. That would’ve helped the governor gin up turnout among his Republican base next year.
But Rauner wouldn’t compromise with the Senate and here we are with nothing.
Gov. Rauner constantly derides the “headline” bills which Madigan loves. But Rep. Steve Andersson (R-Geneva) was totally right when he told Chicago Magazine’s Whet Moser: “At this point, there’s not enough reform to counter the damage we’ve done to the state in the past two years.”
Rauner’s own four-year property tax freeze coupled with workers’ compensation insurance reform that would’ve saved maybe $120 million in Illinois’ $700 billion economy could’ve done some good two years ago. But now, the reforms are little more than political cover.
Those reforms won’t come close to making up for the damage already caused by running a government on court-ordered autopilot and then compounding the problem by signing state contracts that can’t be paid. We as a state have starved our universities nearly to death, devastated the social safety net and, in the process, piled up billions of dollars in unpaid bills, including the $1.1 billion currently owed to K-12 schools that the state has no way to pay anytime soon.
Rauner’s reforms also won’t do much of anything to ease the damage from the much-needed “cure.” The longer Illinois waits, the higher the taxes will have to rise and the deeper the cuts will have to go.
In other words, this whole thing on both sides is a grotesquely fake Kabuki dance.
Madigan’s reforms are lip service at best and Rauner’s “real” reforms won’t come within a solar system of his overly promised “booming” economy.
So, now what? The attorney general’s attempt to overturn a judicial order that state workers be paid without a legal appropriation appears hopelessly stuck in the courts. University layoffs have exceeded 1,500 and lasting damage has been inflicted upon their reputations, but that hasn’t moved the Statehouse needle an inch. Thousands upon thousands of the poorest and most vulnerable among us have been kicked to the curb and nobody seems to care. Our bond ratings are ridiculously low and are going lower, but it’s being shrugged off.
The only thing that literally everyone is deathly afraid of is a K-12 school shutdown. There’s a reason why Gov. Rauner vetoed everything out of the budget passed in 2015 except K-12 funding. The same goes for including K-12 in the last-minute 2016 stopgap funding deal.
As long as they can “contain” the damage, the warring parties can continue their bizarre dispute. But a school shutdown would literally bring out the torches and pitchforks.
The governor has said repeatedly that he won’t sign a partial budget without permanent property tax relief and term limits, which puts him in a horrible box. But a flip-flop would likely go mostly unnoticed if schools open on time.
Will the Democrats pass a partial budget for schools? I assume the House would. Speaker Madigan seems to prefer this war.
The Senate Democrats might be another story. They could impose the terms of surrender during an extreme crisis because their chamber has already courageously approved those terms – a budget, revenues and reforms. They may have to step up again and refuse to do a stopgap and finally bring this thing to an end.
…Adding… Mark Brown on what the final agreement may look like…
I think the difference is that the eventual budget will more closely resemble a version Cullerton had been prepared to put to a vote earlier that better reflected Republican preferences.
When it became apparent Republicans were not going to vote for that version, which included more spending cuts and a slightly different tax mix, Democrats tweaked it to make it more to their own liking.
If they ever come to an actual compromise that includes Rauner and Madigan, I would expect they would return to the more Republican-friendly version.
That’s why they call it a compromise.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 8:54 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Kennedy on Pritzker/Blagojevich FBI tapes: “Completely sick behavior”
Next Post: *** UPDATED x1 *** Another hostage goes down
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Rauner says no stopgap. Take him at his word; no separate K-12 approp. unless there’s a full budget.
He can then travel the state and cut TV spots explaining why his agenda is so important that kids aren’t in school.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:07 am
Unfortunately, I don’t even see a K-12 potential shutdown to making either side move an inch.
Rich, you have a finger on the pulse probably more than anyone outside the actual chambers. Do you honestly see any budget whatsoever being done by 2018 (or 2022 if Rauner gets re-elected)?
Comment by J IL Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:12 am
At this point, K-12 is the only lever left. House and Senate Dems cannot let Rauner cut K-12 out of the “herd” again this year. His rustlin’ of that line item is just too costly to everyone else in the State. And, Republicans are going to have to press some Green buttons, too. Those representing the higher ed districts may be able to get away with bluff and bluster as they sit on the sidelines claiming there’s WFA (waste, fraud, and abuse) that is being cut out due to the impasse, but K-12 will hit them in their re-election soft spots. It should not have taken two totally failed budgets to get to this point. A third, and Rauner can try and cry all the way to the polls that he is a victim, but his victimhood will pale in comparison to what will happen to Illinois if there is another full year without a budget. Stopgaps will not do it. Work on fine tuning the Senate’s proposal, work on the Republicans, and ignore Rauner’s cries of sham bills and phony headlines. Do what is right for the People of this State, not for your re-election pocketbook.
Comment by Anon221 Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:12 am
As has been said many times before, the only leverage left is the K-12 approp. Use it to put the pressure on Rauner. Let’s get this done already!!
Comment by Big Joe Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:15 am
If Rauner goes into August without a K-12 stopgap, expect the tar and feathers to come out, especially the parents (and schools) of top football recruits.
Comment by Jocko Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:16 am
“Madigan’s reforms are lip service”
Hardly, but more importantly is the legislature passage of SB1 (school funding reform) after about 30+ years of talk/inaction on changes.
Of course GOPies (jumpin’Jason)and DopeyDuct did nothin’ and Dopey plans a veto.
K-12 funding seems to be the GOPies hands right now. Good luck
Comment by Annonin' Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:16 am
If I learned anything these nearly 30 months of Raunerism and the occupation of thoughtfulness in the party formerly known as the ILGOP, I have learned if you give Rauner the chance to avoid ownership, he’ll take it, and if Rauner can blame you for anything, he’ll do it.
No full budget, no stopgap, K-12 safety valve… Rauner can’t hide or blame others if there’s no schools open, universities on the verge of closure and social services falling to the wayside without what Rauner demands, a full, complete budget.
Then Rauner can explain how he blew up, twice, the Grand Bargain(s) for ridiculous, unmeasurable budgetary items, that Rauner claims, “mathematically” mind you, will put Illinois in some sort of path, paved with destruction, and Raunerism victims in the ditches on either side.
Rational me? Hopeful me? That “me” wants the carnage and hostage-taking by Rauner to end.
Realistic me? Rauner needs only a fiull budget. Rauner tells me so. So, don’t let Rauner off the hook, but at least make sure people learn what’s going on… as Rauner continues to win… every… single… day.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:17 am
I don’t doubt for a minute k to 12 funding can be used to end this. I doubt that the Democrats have the courage…but if they did the blame would land on Rauner because governor’s…
Comment by doggonit Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:20 am
This K-12 lever does not work the same for each school district or legislator. Where I live the State money is not critical, and my Representative and Senator are strongly pro-Rauner.
Not sure how this plays out in each legislative district, but expect strategists on both sides are figuring that out.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:42 am
I think there are more than a few Dem senators willing to hold the line against another stopgap. They’ve already displayed a willingness to take unpopular positions (voting for cuts and tax increase) in order to do the “right thing.”
But if we get to late July/early August and the threat of schools not opening gets real, I don’t know how long they’ll hold out. Wealthy and suburban school districts will be able to open without of state budget thanks to their cash reserves. CPS and a bunch of South Suburban districts will not, and they are represented by a whole bunch of Senate Dems.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:44 am
If rich school districts can open, but poor ones have to stay closed, there will be a federal lawsuit.
No way is that constitutional.
Comment by Blue Bayou Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 9:58 am
I also believe we will not get a budget until the state actually closes down without one. That means no public schools and no state offices open. Currently people likely to donate or the majority of voters can turn their heads and say they are not affected. We’ve got to take that ability away. Otherwise, we will continue to limp along because the powers that be really dont care about the current hostages.
Comment by Thoughts Matter Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 10:25 am
=== Where I live the State money is not critical===
Yeah, but ordinary people don’t understand that and your superintendent will be screaming like the rest of them.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 10:39 am
Mark Brown writes: “When it became apparent Republicans were not going to vote for that version, which included more spending cuts and a slightly different tax mix, Democrats tweaked it to make it more to their own liking.” It was actually a little bit different than that according to Senator Cullerton’s own version in an extended interview he gave to WBEZ (https://www.wbez.org/shows/morning-shift/il-senate-president-on-state-of-the-state/c3114fc6-851e-4f1d-aa86-a7e89e776329 ).
Here are some of the budget comments made by Senator Cullerton in that interview: “So let me tell you what we actually passed – this is really important. On Feb 15 he [the Governor] introduced a budget he said he wanted to spend $37 billion and $316 million dollars. In that budget – he had a line – a tax increase of $4 billion $572 million dollars – So guess what we did? We passed a budget with exactly that spending limit and we passed a budget with a tax increase of 4.95% - we included in that – in order to get to that – by the way we had $3 billion in cuts [actually slightly more than that]. We worked on that with Republicans then he [Rauner] told them to vote no.” Really Senator Cullerton generally admits SB 6 was largely Rauner’s proposed budget at least in terms of its spending scope which was the main concern of the Senate Republicans.
Comment by Rod Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 11:41 am
I’d love to be wrong, but why wouldn’t the courts just step in and order the schools be funded? Pressure gone…
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 12:18 pm
== but why wouldn’t the courts just step in and order the schools be funded? ==
I’ll answer that with a statement and s question.
It’s clear to the average person that the State Constitution says the State is supposed to be the primary source of school funding … but the courts won’t order that.
So why would the courts now order the State to fund the schools?
Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 4:41 pm
why don’t the dems just pass the budget & K-12 funding and force RH to sign or look like a dufffus.
They can say we did it and he won’t.
Comment by scott aster Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 4:54 pm
== why don’t the dems just pass the budget & K-12 funding and force RH to sign or look like a dufffus. ==
Because Rauner would sign the separate K-12 bill and veto everything else.
Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 5:17 pm
RNUG, I hope you’re right. I’m afraid “primary” is only one issue here. A lack of appropriation that allows some public schools to open, but disproportionately affects the ability of poor and overwhelmingly minority school districts to open would allow the courts to intervene regardless of the the Illinois Constitution’s Education clause.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 6:55 pm
== would allow the courts to intervene … ==
Which means the courts we I’ll order the school districts paid, but there likely won’t be enough revenue.
I’ll wager 100:1 that the courts won’t order higher taxes; that would be walking all over the separation of powers issue.
Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 8:07 pm
WILL …. not we I’ll …
Comment by RNUG Monday, Jun 5, 17 @ 8:08 pm
There’s plenty of districts in the rural parts of Illinois who also would not be able to open. Would really make life interesting for folks like Dale Righter, if this came to pass…
Comment by Lynn S. Tuesday, Jun 6, 17 @ 2:50 am
My mantra has been “Prisons gotta open and schools gotta close”. Honestly, outside Springfield and perhaps Chicago, the average Jack and Jill could care less about all of this. Closing the schools is probably the only path out of this briar patch, as that hurts almost everyone.
Comment by Skirmisher Tuesday, Jun 6, 17 @ 5:59 pm