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* From the DGA…
A new report from the National Journal Hotline lists Bruce Rauner as the most vulnerable incumbent governor in America, and ranks Illinois as the third most likely gubernatorial seat to flip parties behind New Jersey and New Mexico whose governors are term-limited. Hotline’s listing comes just weeks after Rauner was tagged as the “most vulnerable incumbent” by Cook Political Report.
From the National Journal ranking of the 12 most-likely governorship to flip parties:
“3. Illinois—Bruce Rauner (R)
In what could break spending records for a state race, Republicans’ most vulnerable incumbent is seeking a second term after overseeing a two-year budget impasse in a state Hillary Clinton won handily. Rauner seeded his campaign with $50 million and has shifted right by hiring conservative think-tankers.”
As National Journal points out, Bruce Rauner faces the uphill challenge of running in a democratically leaning state, and with Trump’s approval rating sitting at 36%, a right-wing staff shakeup will not help his reelection chances. Besides, it was Bruce Rauner’s no-compromise governing that earned him low approval ratings, and doubling-down on that style of politics will only solidify voters’ already poor impression of him.
“Political analysts agree – Governor Bruce Rauner’s reelection effort is in big trouble and it should come as no surprise,” said DGA Illinois Communications Director Sam Salustro. “Bruce Rauner has earned the title “Most Vulnerable Incumbent” by consistently putting his political considerations ahead of Illinois families’ concerns. Rauner forced the state through a two-year budget crisis that did real damage – jobs lost and people fleeing the state, social services programs cut, and schools on the brink. When legislators sent him a budget to end the impasse, Rauner vetoed it. Illinois is worse-off under Bruce Rauner’s failed leadership, a fact that has not escaped voters’ attention.”
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:01 pm
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But… Matt Besler…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:09 pm
The Dem drop off in non-prez years is enormous; GOP, not so much.
Madigan, as long-time chair of the Illinois Dems, has been lousy at turning out Dem voters in non-prez years.
A couple of non-binding referendums ain’t even an effort.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:14 pm
He’s got plenty of cash and a message. Yes he has been a terrible governor. Yes he has given the opposition plenty to work with. But will they be able to work with it, and will they have the cash to broadcast it?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:15 pm
===Madigan, as long-time chair of the Illinois Dems, has been lousy at turning out Dem voters in non-prez years. ===
Agreed, but look back at the last GOP presidential midterm: 2006.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:16 pm
Ranked right behind the guys that have to leave.
(gulp)
Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:17 pm
That there’s 2 more likely two flip than IL shouldn’t be seen as much of a comfort since that NJ race at #1 is pretty much in dead girl/live boy territory.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:19 pm
First things first…
Rauner needs to get back from being under water in his approval - disapproval.
Between 49-58% disapproval isn’t a great way to build… with a new Crew, Right in tilt, and more concerned about message than successes.
Rauner won’t be easy to beat.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:20 pm
More glowing reviews for the staff shake-up and the Best Team in America.
Comment by Whatever Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:25 pm
I think we’re all, including me, ignoring Rauner’s secret weapon.
Evelyn Sanguinetti.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:26 pm
==But will they be able to work with it, and will they have the cash to broadcast it?==
You mean the candidate that makes Rauner look middle class? Will they have enough money? Lol
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:28 pm
We can hope.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:31 pm
Perhaps we can save $$$ by just deciding now that Rauner will lose. Why bother holding the election?
Oh, wait a minute, i remember all of those HRC supporters proclaiming that Rauner would not win in the first place.
After that, they went on to say Trump was impossible and would never happen.
But then, they said they got synced up and were taking the pulse.
That’s when they said the Dem would prevail in the Kansas by-election.
By Montana, they told Rachel Maddow they had a finely-tuned dial-in. But the Gopper there won after smacking an activist parading as a “reporter.”
Let’s see, next was… South Carolina. They were quiet about that. And they had considerable reason to be so.
But — yes, i recall — they convinced themselves Atlanta would rise again! Spent scores of millions! Had a stack of polling data higher than Stone Mountain itself.
They trucked their CNN buddies down to HQ for the Big Night and…
Sour faces on the little screen, wrong again.
Hmmmmm. Here CapFax quotes with reverence… As if DGA’s flack would say something… else? Is that it? Did they pay for a banner ad or something? What gives? “Dems at National Journal and at DGA say Gopper will lose! Tape at 11!!”
Ftr, i think Rauner’s task is akin to scaling Everest in a tee-shirt and flip-flops.
But — if i want to dial-in, or if CapFax wants to, might we do so with the slightest acknowledgement — call it, intellectual honesty — that many such prognostications from these folks recently have been — merely — p.r. fluff from folks just like the DGA?
I have been and remain deeply critical of Rauner’s idiotic 30-month sojourn into a cul-de-sac from which he proved singularly unable to extricate himself. Whatever chance he had on arriving, he blew it.
We must be fair and say the jury’s out on his rectification. Maybe we’ll see how the Schools bill turns out. It’s a big test for him and his new crew, right off the bat.
But the Gov election will not be about either. The election will be simple, and it will look forward: “Do you trust one-party rule in the Patch to the folks who just raised your taxes by 35 percent?”
That’s it. That’s all. No more.
Whining about Bruce — Sangamon County’s top cottage industry –
will not get the D’s one vote that was not coming their way.
And, with that question about one-party rule, there will be a picture of a Dem candidate — their nominee.
Whichever Solon gets selected, he shall have professed, as J.B. has done, utter obeisance to “Mike and the Unions.”
What alternative do any of them have?
It is my two cents that, for all of his failings, when you put Bruce up against any of those four, and you ask the question above, then the folks who bet the ranch on HRC being president today might again be surprised. Voters decide without reference to DGA banner ads and press releases.
Cheers, c
Comment by Chris Robling Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:42 pm
Wait, did they not see Dr. Rauner’s commercial?
Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:42 pm
The Governor needs to hire Willy to guarantee his fate
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:45 pm
Wouldn’t put too much stock in this, as they just don’t factor in all the very weird Illinois factors.
If that were the case, aren’t they just urging him to “go for it” over the next 2 years? Not sure that’s so smart.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:46 pm
===Wouldn’t put too much stock in this, as they just don’t factor in all the very weird Illinois factors===
Like what? Rauner being upside down in statewide polling
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:48 pm
“But I would give us an A over the things that we have control over”. Like the Governor really had no control over the 2 year impasse. An Illinois Governor is accorded a lot of power if he understands how to use it. This Governor does not and he continues to put his personal ideology ahead of the citizens he’s supposed to be working for. Rauner doesn’t feel obligated to work for anyone, except those like Ken Griffin.
Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:49 pm
===But — if i want to dial-in, or if CapFax wants to, might we do so with the slightest acknowledgement — call it, intellectual honesty — that many such prognostications from these folks recently have been — merely — p.r. fluff from folks just like the DGA?===
Hmm…
===“Downstate and in the collar counties, and even somewhat in the city, for a statewide candidate like [Senator] Mark Kirk or [Illinois Comptroller] Leslie Munger, I think Trump is good news,” Robling said.===
https://capitolfax.com/2016/05/09/i-think-trump-is-good-news/
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:53 pm
Dear - Chris Robling -
Kansas, Montana, South Carolina… Did Hillary win those states?
Illinois… Did Hillary win Illinois?
Your pal,
Oswego Willy
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:56 pm
Oh, and - Chris Robling -
How about Georgia… Hillary win Georgia?
You think on all that.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 2:58 pm
Again, which of Rauners 44 turnaround points did Democrats embrace? Compromise is about give and take. What did Dems give on?
Comment by Yobagoya Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:08 pm
==Rauner being upside down in statewide polling==
Sure, Willy. Toss this one in too. It’s thick soup. I think you got the gist of what I’m suggesting. Illinois is a complexly weird place.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:09 pm
“Again, which of Rauners 44 turnaround points did Democrats embrace?” Who’s to say any of them were good ideas?
Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:10 pm
==Again, which of Rauners 44 turnaround points did Democrats embrace?==
There were varying degrees of support for a property tax freeze, workers’ comp reform, pension reform, and term limits. Problem was, every time a Dem tried to advance one of those things, Rauner called it phony.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:11 pm
===It’s thick soup. I think you got the gist of what I’m suggesting. Illinois is a complexly weird place.===
No.
In statewide polling, Rauner is underwater in approval/disapproval.
The only thick is in the head if that fact, today, is just numbers being numbers.
No real “Illinois nuance”
People were polled. Rauner is underwater.
As @StatehouseChick loves to say, “Simple”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:13 pm
Chris Robling is an insufferable gasbag. His arguments are like Chicago’s weather. Wait twenty minutes and they’ll change.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:14 pm
Chris Robling is Dan Proft with a thesaurus.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:15 pm
The only thing amazing here is so many in the GOP are still in denial.
Comment by Liberty Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:24 pm
===The Dem drop off in non-prez years is enormous; GOP, not so much.
Trump. See Rich’s point about 2006, but also the activism on the Dem side is much higher right now even in areas friendly to Trump. We’ll want to look at the enthusiasm numbers in February and March, but right now the turnout for Dems has been high in the specials and the primaries in NJ & Virginia. The 2017 generals in those states will tell us something as well–especially Virginia.
I figured Rauner was toast since November 9th, but Trump has outdone even my expectations. And then Rauner has too.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:25 pm
===Madigan, as long-time chair of the Illinois Dems, has been lousy at turning out Dem voters in non-prez years.
Which is why Dems not happy with him should come out to have a better chance at taking out some of his worst candidates or people he supports–like Lipinski.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:26 pm
==I figured Rauner was toast since November 9th, but Trump has outdone even my expectations. And then Rauner has too.==
I wouldn’t go that far, but Rauner was pretty high up on the list of Illinoisans Most Disappointed That Clinton Lost.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:29 pm
Ideologues Polluting Illinois
Comment by OurMagician Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:34 pm
===Sour faces on the little screen, wrong again.
Also a plus 15 shift from Trumps numbers towards Democrats on average in those specials.
I doubt Rauner will lose 15 points from 2014, but between him and Trump I think a 5+ point shift to any of the Dems is highly likely.
Comment by ArchPundit Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:39 pm
–Agreed, but look back at the last GOP presidential midterm: 2006.–
True. GOP drop off was still less, but much closer to Dems than usual.
2004 Prez:
Kerry — 2.9M
Bush — 2.3M
2006 Guv:
Blago — 1.7M
JBT — 1.4M
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 3:52 pm
==No.
In statewide polling, Rauner is underwater in approval/disapproval.
The only thick is in the head if that fact, today, is just numbers being numbers.
No real “Illinois nuance”
People were polled. Rauner is underwater.===
Well, I guess you must be right, like the last time Rauner ran…or Trump…
cept you weren’t, were you?
Too early to tell. I’m buying the stat Sling is selling about the drop off in Dem midyear voters. I suspect it will be even more pronounced this time without the Trump/Hillary hatefest up on the top of the ballot.
I also kinda think that all the dough being spent now and for the next 8 months is just going to make people NOT want to vote even more. So many are already saying they’re sick of it. They’re all driving down participation right now IMO.
We’ll see.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 4:02 pm
===…or Trump…===
Trump was losing Illinois, Trump lost Illinois.
===Too early to tell. I’m buying the stat Sling is selling about the drop off in Dem midyear voters. I suspect it will be even more pronounced this time without the Trump/Hillary hatefest up on the top of the ballot.===
It will be lower than 2016. History tells us all that.
Rauner has flat-out alienated Labor, destroyed Sicial Services, wants a divided, angry state, with region pitted against region… and now Raunef has vetoed all higher education, social service funding, road construction, MAP grants…
Rauner needs people to plum forget… “Bruce Rauner failed”
We’ll see…
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 4:07 pm
OW, he’s also alienated more than a few groups who were enthusiastic supporters in 2014. While these groups may not vote D, they sure as heck won’t be as motivated to get to the polls at all.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 4:22 pm
It would be nice to see a viable candidate, whether D or R. JB just doesn’t do it for me. Typical liberal elitist with a “do as I say, not as I do” approach. Rauner can’t possibly win can he? I’m not sure he even wants to win. Kennedy is as effective as Rauner, and doesn’t seem willing to spend his own money. Talk about lacking conviction.
Illinois is on a path to nowhere. None of these guys can fix it, because just like the country, we are so polarized. Back to rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Comment by Fredo Corleone Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 6:43 pm
It’s all going to come down to the fiscally conservative social moderates who decided Rauner was a better choice than Quinn. In some cases, these were also union members who deserted Quinn. IMO, those voters were looking for some change but not complete destruction of the State.
This is going to be a brutal negative campaign. The choices, in shorthand, will be “Rauner failed” / “not Rauner” versus “Because Madigan” / “why should you trust xxx?”
Whichever candidate can also articulate a positive path going forward, and make the voters believe it, will win.
At this point, I’ll put my money on “not Rauner”.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 10:58 pm
== Madigan, as long-time chair of the Illinois Dems, has been lousy at turning out Dem voters in non-prez years.
A couple of non-binding referendums ain’t even an effort. ==
Have to wonder if there will be any real constitutional amendments on the ballot in 2018.
Maybe they could use the Special Session to propose a couple, like a Millionaire’s Surcharge and/or a Progressive Income Tax. Wouldn’t that be a slap at Rauner and a perfect piece of irony?
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Jul 26, 17 @ 11:04 pm