Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: ILGOP: “When Republicans are fighting each other, Mike Madigan wins”
Next Post: “Rauner decided he could betray the ones who took his money”
Posted in:
* Mark Brown notes that as vulnerable as Gov. Rauner may seem, he’s not yet beaten, and Brown expects the governor to run for reelection…
As he has for the past four years, Rauner is going to campaign against what he will portray as the corrupt Illinois political establishment — personified by Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan — that has blocked him from accomplishing his goals.
He’s going to ask voters for the sake of the future of Illinois to allow him to finish the job that he’s started.
And Rauner will spend his millions to savage his to-be-determined Democratic opponent in campaign ads until voters are nearly as sick of that candidate as they are of him. […]
There are those who argue the businessman in Rauner will look at his re-election chances and the tens of millions of his personal wealth that he’s expended to date and decide it’s a bad investment to double that.
But the wealthy businessman has said from the start that he made an eight-year commitment to politics because he believed it would take that long to turn Illinois around. And I don’t believe for a moment that we’ve seen the outside limit of what he’s willing to spend to achieve his goal.
* Meanwhile…
But supporters say Rauner may actually be better positioned now to at least remain competitive in a general election in a blue state where Hillary Clinton won by double digits last year. The Democratic gubernatorial primary is crowded but J.B. Pritzker, a billionaire, has consolidated support of major labor groups and party insiders. Pritzker has already demonstrated he can go toe to toe with Rauner financially and has spent some $14 million, advertising on TV and radio for months.
Rauner’s decision to sign automatic voter registration, and a bill making it easier for transgender individuals to obtain changes to their birth certificates, will burnish his appeal to moderates in both parties, supporters say.
“There are a lot of people I believe who aren’t necessarily vocal right now that totally support what the governor has done. It’s a center to left-of-center state, and being pro-choice or being for health care for poor women is not necessarily a bad place to be as a Republican,” said Pat Brady, a former Illinois Republican Party chairman. “It doesn’t make sense to me that all Republicans are going to revolt against him because he doesn’t like HB40. I understand completely that people are upset over HB40 … What are they going to do? Support J.B. Pritzker? [Democratic House Speaker Mike] Madigan’s guy?”
* And…
“Taking out a sitting governor sitting on that kind of money is no easy feat. It’s a heavy lift, you need manpower and money. He vetoed the tax hike — that is one of the biggest things he’s going to be able to run on, particularly in a Republican primary. A massive education overhaul got through … For Republicans in Illinois, he’s probably their best hope.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:53 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: ILGOP: “When Republicans are fighting each other, Mike Madigan wins”
Next Post: “Rauner decided he could betray the ones who took his money”
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Pat Brady- “There are a lot of people I believe who aren’t necessarily vocal right now that totally support what the governor has done.”
There are some things that Rauner has either agreed to or championed that have had a positive effect for Illinois- many of those issues were bipartisan. However, that does not translate into a vote for giving him another term. The Dems need to focus, focus, focus on the many ways he has brought conflict, contention, and outright carnage to education systems, social service networks, and elder care- just to name a few areas. Rauner will put on the “compassionate” coat for the remainder of his term if he pursues re-election. His team will try and turn the media and spotlight to those few bright spots where criminal justice was improved or human rights were recognized. But we must always remember all of the choices Rauner made a governor in order to be competitive before being compassionate.
Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:02 am
Rauner may be looking toward re-election, but Lady Macbeth is thinking First Lady.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:09 am
This is a blue state, Donald Trump is still President and Rauner is still the guy that refuses to criticize a man who is intellectually, morally and ethically unfit for the Presidency.
Democrats won’t sit out this midterm.
Comment by slow down Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:09 am
Way too early to count out Rauner. He’ll start the general election campaign with a solid 40% of likely voters in the bank and then can spend tens of millions going after persuadables.
As far as a primary, I doubt Ives or Proft want to give up their pipe dreams of being the voice of GOP voters. They’d both get clobbered by Rauner in a GOP primary, like Baer and Roeser before them.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:15 am
I mean this sincerely: blah blah blah. Once the general comes around and Bruce Rauner is there with wads of cash and that big capital (R) next to his name, and zillions of dollars spent throwing garbage at his opponent, the (R)s will come running, and he’s counting on that. It just depends on how many moderates and independents come over with them.
Comment by The_Equalizer Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:16 am
Well, let’s see what the Governor is up to today, hmm, very important flu shot. Will we get any other medical exam press releases?
For Immediate Release
Monday, October 2, 2017
Contact
Elizabeth Tomev
Elizabeth.Tomev@illinois.gov
Daily Public Schedule: Tuesday, October 3, 2017
What: Gov Rauner gets annual flu shot
Where: James R. Thompson Center, 100 W. Randolph Street, Rm. 2-025, Chicago
Date: Tuesday, October 3, 2017
Time: 9:15 a.m.
###
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:18 am
Pro-life Republicans will have to weigh; why it is wrong for a pregnant woman to choose abortion, but it is OK for them to choose a pro-abortion candidate who will use their tax dollars to pay for it.
A vote for Rauner will make them hypocrites.
Comment by PDJT Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:23 am
Old commentators with the same old talk about old politicians stuck in old politics.
Go ahead Bruce, throw your millions at ads that people can easily tune out either because they cut the cord on tv, have Tivo, are taking advantage of all the other entertainment options technology affords, or just already know you are dishonest person. At least your consultants will dig you.
Comment by Chris P. Bacon Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:24 am
If Pritzker is the nominee, I think Rauner can in fact drag him down to his polling numbers (with Blagojevich ties, property taxes, Madigan). I don’t think he can do that with the other Democrats running.
Rauner has to go full negative to win - he needs to make sure the jilted movement conservatives hate the Democrat more than him or else they will just sit out this election.
Comment by Grand Avenue Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:26 am
Didn’t I see a thread somewhere that said Rauner lacks credibility? People aren’t going to forget what Rauner did to this state, and that his word (or belated actions) can’t be trusted.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:30 am
I agree with Brown and Brady that it is foolish to write Rauner off. He has repositioned himself to attract more voters in November.
But I also think it is foolish to dismiss the idea he will easily dispatch a primary challenge. There are not a lot of pro-choice, pro-immigration, or pro-gay rights GOP primary voters. And I don’t think downstate Republicans share Rauner’s passion for destroying organized labor. With plenty of action on the Dem side, moderate swing voters might prefer to pull Dem primary ballots in March, leaving the GOP side with a low turn-out and a more conservative voter base. And don’t forget, Rauner underperformed his polling numbers in the 2014 primary — which had a relatively high turnout.
Money means less in a primary than a general because the true-believers in the primary electorate are harder to persuade. A credible conservative challenger has a real shot.
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:30 am
I think more than a primary challenge, Rauner has to worry about a third party candidate from the right sapping 5% of the vote. Now that the full slate rule has been overturned, unions can find & fund candidates for Gov & LG and run them on the “Pro Life Anti Illegal Party” and mail to right wingers to make sure Rauner doesn’t get those votes.
Comment by Grand Avenue Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:34 am
*foolish to think he will easily dispatch a primary challenge.
Meant to say that.
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:35 am
I got a poll call the other day asking about Rauner vs. Pritzker and Rauner vs. Kennedy, then it asked about Ives, McCarter, Proft, and Bill Brady vs. each of those two Dems.
Comment by caller Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:37 am
If you think for a minute that Rauner is going to get the blame for all that is wrong with Illinois PublicServant think again. Big Mike is going to get hammered by millions of Rauner dollars for his part in the whole mess. Rauner has four years of ineffectiveness where MM has 30 years that will be brought up. Our schools are open and money is flowing again. 6 months from now people will be worried about a new crisis and an ultra-liberal like Pritzker will not play well in the south.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:39 am
===If you think for a minute that Rauner is going to get the blame for all that is wrong with Illinois .., think again===
“Pat Quinn failed” worked last time.
Is your memory so short that not only can you not come up with a name, you ignore how Rauner won in the first place?
===…hammered by millions of Rauner dollars for his part in the whole mess. Rauner has four years of ineffectiveness where MM has 30 years that will be brought up.===
“What will be different in a second term?” - Bret Baier, FoxNews.
Rauner is polling 63% disapproval. Rauner is failing according to voters, even with Madigan.
===an ultra-liberal like Pritzker will not play well in the south.===
Explain how Rauner’s sanctuary state, HB40, and other liberal bills signed by Rauner will help the governor downstate?
Rauner has a proven liberal track record as governor. Look what Rauner has signed.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:45 am
This state re elected Rod. Not saying Rauner wins but to write him off at this point is simply too early. HB 40 might hurt in a primary that–if he even gets one–he will not lose. In the general HB 40? meh. Lots of Catholics have voted for pro choice candidates over the years–me included.
Comment by Eire17 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:46 am
“6 months from now people will be worried about a new crisis…”
Perhaps, but if it turns out to be a Rauner manufactured crisis, it’s not a crisis, it’s intentional. This is his modus operandi, and I’m sure he can trot out a folksy story to defend his competitive compassion.
Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:53 am
===He’ll start the general election campaign with a solid 40% of likely voters in the bank===
His problem is that the Democratic candidate in a Trump midterm starts with closer to 45% in the bank. Trump lost this state by a large margin; it’s hard to see how Bruce Rauner sells Democrat-leaning voters on the accomplishments he doesn’t have. And that’s without what’s now likely to be a lethargic, frustrated GOP base.
Comment by PJ Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:56 am
Rauner Productions promised us a great new world of government. A majority gave him their vote in response. Instead we saw four years of misery and incompetence. We saw a complete failure of government.
Now Rauner Productions are trying to sell us on the a sequel. Same story line. Same promises.Same bad guy.
Crowds will line up for “Rauner World II”, like they did for “An Inconvenient Truth: Truth to Power” this summer.
Rauner was given the benefit of a doubt in 2014 that he doesn’t have now. No one wants this persistent rascal in office anymore.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:58 am
Pat Brady just repeats Rauners talking points, no more, no less. Raunerlies as much as Trump, maybe more. The Rauner fiasco has played out.
Comment by DeseDemDose Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:03 am
It seems that republicans (national and state) don’t really run on accomplishments. What they run on is demonizing their opponent. They get the fear and hate machine working so well that some people don’t even know what the person they are voting for stands for, they just “know” they have to do everything in their power to stop the democratic candidate from winning and unleashing holy hell on us.
That is obviously all Rauner can run on.
So the question really isn’t Rauner’s credibility. It’s the credibility of republicans, and whether they hate the democratic candidate so much they will vote for this “liar”, “Benedict Arnold”, “Manchurian candidate”, etc.
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:05 am
JB will win big in Cook County & collar counties. Rauner may win down south but it will not be with the huge margins that he needs to overcome.
As for me, I will not hold my nose and vote for Rauner. I will just skip that line.
Comment by BIG R. Ph Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:06 am
Don’t forget that Rauner’s primary win was boosted by a sexual harassment lawsuit filed against Rutherford.
The former Treasurer tanked in the primary.
So far, the lawsuit is gathering dust. The lawyer who filed the action, packed her bags, moved from the city to the Northwest suburbs and is running for judge. Quid pro quo?
Comment by H'mm Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:17 am
Just do the simple math. Rauner + Trump = defeat
Comment by Ya don't say Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:31 am
A year is a long time, and rauner has endless cash. He could, maybe, build a case for election, with some important successes. A big capital bill, w lots of ribbon cuttings, (but thats good for unions). A budget that meets obligations and is balanced (but he wants to phase out the tax increase). Competent administration of govt (but that means avoiding turmoil w afscme, and not starving the beast). Winning elections of sensible new members, to build the party (as if R would fund folks running against him, maybe funding primaries against incumbents).
Rauner will stick to all message, all the time.
Words/deeds.
Rauner is incapable of governing.
Nothing will get done, unless lame ducks bolt–which i would love to see.
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:34 am
Rauner cannot be counted out because he’s got every dollar he needs and I suspect most of the Republican base will return to him by November.
But the idea that HB40 is going to burnish his appeal to moderates is silly. It’s a bit like the idea that the tax hike was a win for him; that might’ve worked if he’d sold it that way, but in both cases, he’s acting like he lost, and right now he’s letting the pro-lifers’ talk of “betrayal” and “lies” dominate the conversation. This too shall pass, but it’s going to make it almost impossible for Rauner to sell HB40.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:44 am
Never count out Rauner, he has been successful at everything he has done, remember?
Comment by Honeybadger Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:19 am
Never count out an incumbent, even this “governor.”
But, I’d expect some Primary indigestion, as well as some dark money group during the General continually blasting out ads reminding voters south of I-80 that he supports taxpayer-funded abortion, a sanctuary state and LGBTQ protections. He has no easy path
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:22 am
I disagree with many. Rauner burned bridges. He will get spanked in the general. If he decides to run.
Comment by Blue dog dem Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:05 pm
A lot of the campaigns will take shape once the General Primary landscape is known. What the respective Democratic and Republican primaries look like will dictate things through mid-March. Then the pivots come for the General Election.
Comment by titan Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:25 pm
==It seems that republicans (national and state) don’t really run on accomplishments==
Please tell us all about how Blagojevich or Obama ran for reelection on their accomplishments.
When you have no accomplishments, you tear down your opponent. Both parties do it, silly.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:42 pm
Joe B: —But, I’d expect some Primary indigestion, as well as some dark money group during the General continually blasting out ads reminding voters south of I-80 that he supports taxpayer-funded abortion, a sanctuary state and LGBTQ protections. He has no easy path —
Where will these voters turn then? The democrat will support these issues as well. Are you saying voters south of I-80 will leave this race blank on their ballots?
With respect
Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:59 pm
A flu shot is on his daily schedule?? Why? Does he really have nothing else to do? This is crazy.
Comment by Flynn's mom Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:13 pm
The only way Rauner wins re-election is if Pritzker is the Dem nominee.
Let’s see how long it takes the party insiders to figure that out.
Comment by CatAttack Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 7:28 am