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* Lynn Sweet on Tuesday’s election results…
1. A lot of Democrats turned out in those states. The different Democratic factions united. That includes the new post-Trump Indivisibles, which is a growing movement in Illinois to old school labor. If the big Democratic Illinois primary field for governor and attorney general jazzes up Democrats — and if they patch their primary differences after March — that’s a potent political force.
2. A lot of suburban women voted, and in Illinois these swing female voters are always, always crucial. Rauner signing a controversial abortion-related bill may earn him a primary — but that seems a risk he had to take in order to not alienate suburban women.
3. Health care coverage was an issue for voters. Rauner has not stepped up to the challenge of guaranteeing Illinoisans that they will be better off under Trumpcare — if it ever gets through Congress — than with Obamacare, which Trump is trying to undermine because he cannot get it repealed, much less replaced.
4. Rauner and his campaign are placing a big bet that voters in Illinois will focus less on Trump and more on Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan, who doubles as the chair of the Illinois Democratic Party.
It isn’t easy to “localize” a statewide contest when there are such strong national winds.
* From the DGA…
This week’s sweeping victories can be traced to 3 main factors: Democratic enthusiasm, a divided Republican party, and independents moving towards Democrats.
You can click here to read its full analysis.
* Greg Hinz…
Yesterday’s results also were not very helpful to U.S. Rep. Peter Roskam, R-Wheaton, who represents much of DuPage County and the western suburbs. […]
Roskam already has to explain his vote for the Obamacare repeal bill that died in the Senate. Now he’s one of the principal architects of a pending tax bill that seems to punish upper-middle-class professionals who live in relatively high-tax blue states.
In that vein, it’s of note that one of Roskam’s GOP colleagues, Rep. Darrell Issa, who represents a district just north of San Diego and who faces a tough re-election race, yesterday announced that he opposes the current draft of the bill, declaring, “Tax reform should cut taxes for all taxpayers––regardless of where they live.”
Issa specifically mentioned the state and local tax deduction, which would mostly disappear under the bill.
For Roskam’s sake, I hope he noticed. The congressman keeps arguing that, overall, the bill is good for his district. But after statements like Issa’s and yesterday’s votes, Roskam is going to have a harder time convincing people in his district that he truly has their welfare in mind.
* Related…
* Roskam: The House tax plan benefits everyone
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:37 am
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Tuesday was a bad night for Bruce Rauner. As a couple of national commentators noted, it’s hard to find a path to victory for him if Dems are turning out in droves. The headwinds he has been facing went from gale force to hurricane strength.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:42 am
I don’t think Trump will suddenly become a shrinking violet at his age. He loves to be the center of attention in the worst way.
Trump’s dominated political discourse since he announced for prez. I don’t see that changing. He’ll be a yuge issue next year.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:45 am
The idea that voters (or enough of them, anyway) will focus less on Trump and more on Madigan is insane.
Comment by paddyrollingstone Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:51 am
“Tuesday was a bad night for Bruce Rauner. As a couple of national commentators noted, it’s hard to find a path to victory for him if Dems are turning out in droves. The headwinds he has been facing went from gale force to hurricane strength.”
Agreed, but it’s no guarantee of a win. Gillespie went half in on Trumps agenda while Rauner is going more moderate. Plus the incumbency advantage and the Mike Madigan question. But still it’s not good news for a Republican in a blue state.
Comment by Epic Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:53 am
In some ways, it is really ironic. Had Bruce Rauner, after being elected, been the socially moderate fiscal conservative responsible businessman he sold to the voters, he would be pretty well positioned for the next election.
But because Rauner has governed (if you can use that word) as a hard line bust-out bankruptcy con artist, he is an easy target for the Democrats … especially a reasonable middle of the road challenger. His money will make it a horse race, but the trend is against him.
Comment by RNUG Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:54 am
Bannon has gone out of his way to say, “we need more cowbell”…
That’s good news for Democrats to keep voters energized and organized in thought that Republicans are bad, and Trumpism is even worse.
The fact Bannon believes that not going “full Trump” is a losing formula for GOP candidates, especially in “Purple” states like Virginia is in its statewide offices…
… the real troubling issue will be as “more cowbell” is being pushed because Bannon will push it no matter what Trump does (Trump ain’t backing down either), Democrats need to reinforce that its good to be angry, its good to be motivated, but don’t forget to vote against Republicans.. and don’t forget that Republican is Trump, and Trump is Republican.
Rauner?
Rauner, with his social agenda arguably now a liberal Democrat might not have as far left as Rauner is…
Who is Rauner’s constituency?
Liberal left socially, won’t denounce Trump publicly, needing GOP votes that Trump seems to hold.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:54 am
What evidence does Lynn Sweet have that suburban women are more excited than anyone else about paying for the abortions of other people, even late term abortions? That nostrum was probably misplaced and out of date when Sweet was recycling it 20 years ago.
If the Trump hating yokels around here want to focus on results from 2 Blue states as excuse to keep deluding themselves that the national economy is booming under this President while the Dem Party increasingly becomes just a regional coalition of angry people with personal greivances, go right ahead.
Comment by Chris P. Bacon Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:58 am
Illinois Republicans in Congress voting in favor of a tax bill that repeals the local and state tax deduction to fund an estate tax repeal are putting the interests of national party donors ahead of the interests of local constituents.
Illinois Congressional Republicans that claim to be pro-life while voting for a tax bill that eliminates the adoption tax credit are sacrificing unborn babies to Mammon.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 11:58 am
“Ya gotta have more cowbell.” - Steve Bannon
Comment by Boone's is Back Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:00 pm
The last caller on Rep. Roskam’s 10/25 tele townhall was Debbie–a 6th district constituent who knew any simplification of the tax code that did not cut the 25% rate could substantially raise her family’s federal taxes.
Roskam became flustered in addressing her concern and, at one point, claimed the tax hike scenario she was describing for upper-middle income professionals really could not exist.
My guess is that he’ll discover there are thousands of 6th district Republican constituents in this same tax scenario who won’t be voting Republican on Nov. 6, 2018 if this tax bill passes.
Comment by 6th District Property Taxes Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:08 pm
===focus on results from 2 Blue states===
Illinois is a red state?
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:09 pm
Nate Silver tweeted the following, and I think it’s pretty well worded. Any prognostication beyond “Dems are looking good nationally ” is probably too clever.
==Point being: There’s a lot of evidence that the political environment is somewhere between “pretty good” and “very good” for Democrats.
But I think people are getting too cute in trying to diagnose *where* and *how* its good. The evidence has been noisy and inconsistent on that.==
Comment by Chris Widger Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:16 pm
===That nostrum was probably misplaced===
Rauner is doing what he needs to do to win as a Republican in Illinois. Whether it works remains to be seen. But, if he follows your thinking, I can almost guarantee a loss.
Comment by People Over Parties Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:20 pm
“Illinois is a red state?”
No it’s not — unless you want to count Rauner’s win, which I don’t. And it never will be a Red state if Republicans here don’t stop cowering to IL media which often doesn’t know what the heck it’s talking about. Wisconsin hadn’t gone Red since 1984 (even IL went for George H.W. Bush in 1988). And yet Trump turned WI. My point is there are bigger national trends out there than what we saw in VA and NJ and some of the state/campaign specific factors in play there. Consider a Dem Party that’s TRULY in a national civil war and fact you really can’t name a credible presidential challenger right now for 2020. The most popular person in Dem party right now isn’t even a Democrat, it’s the elderly Socialist Bernie Sanders.
Comment by Chris P. Bacon Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:21 pm
===Dem Party increasingly becomes just a regional coalition of angry people with personal greivances,===
You said a lot of dumb things there, but this has to take the cake. This President was elected entirely on the basis of angry whites with racial and class grievances.
You couldn’t even repeal and replace Obamacare, because modern national Republicans don’t have policies anymore (aside from corporate tax cuts, which as we know are super popular). They’re the embodiment of angry Fox viewers mumbling about the blacks and Mexicans.
Comment by PJ Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:27 pm
Yeah, Roskam, keep telling your constituents what a sweet deal it is to eliminate the deduction for state and local taxes.
Now they won’t have to worry their pretty little heads over that ominous Schedule A.
You realize your represent the Chicago suburbs, correct? The elimination of the state and local deduction hoses every property tax payer in your district.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:34 pm
===…national economy is booming under this President while the Dem Party increasingly becomes just a regional coalition of angry people with personal greivances…===
Two years ago, you could have said the exact same thing about the Republican Party. The exact same thing. And then they won.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:34 pm
Definitely more Madigan than Trump. Madigan affects far more people in Illinois than Trump. Nothing gets done, or has gotten done without Madigan saying yes. People are VERY tired of it.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:38 pm
===Madigan affects far more people in Illinois than Trump.===
You should probably get out more.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:41 pm
Chris, are you allowed to turn off the cable TV? Or does a caregiver have the remote?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:41 pm
Elsewhere in the Sun-Times (the USA Today insert) another Democrat counseled caution as to reading too much into the Tuesday’s election results. The Democrats retained Virginia with a centrist gubernatorial candidate. Northam even said that he would support efforts to oppose sanctuary cities.
The losing New Jersey candidate was Christy’s Lieutenant Governor and she carried his baggage.
Comment by Reality Check Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:41 pm
Hillary carried New Jersey, Virginia and Washington last November. Now it is newsworthy that Democrats did well in states that were previously in the Democratic camp. Wow!
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:48 pm
===Now it is newsworthy that Democrats did well in states that were previously in the Democratic camp. Wow! ===
You have reading comprehension problems. The successful Virginia candidate’s victory margin was almost twice as high as Hillary’s. It’s not that she won or he won, it’s that he outpolled her, which is highly unusual. Imagine if the Dem nominee did that here. Whew.
https://capitolfax.com/2017/11/08/watch-out-for-the-waves/
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:54 pm
The Dems took the Virginia state house, which NO ONE saw coming. They booted long time neanderthal right wingers out of office. One such nutter lost to a transgender women!
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 12:59 pm
Democrats had a very good night on Tuesday, picking up a lot of state and local seats. It was great also to see diversity, such as the Sikh mayor in New Jersey, transgender candidates winning, as well as first-time African-American mayors and Latinas winning state legislature seats for the first time. Now sure, candidates should be qualified first, but still, it’s great for many of us to see this progress. I’ll assume voters made good choices, absent of knowledge of the candidates, but if not, then vote them out next time.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:00 pm
Donnie has a 35% approval rating. I hope the national republicans keep their head buried deep in his rear until 12/18.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:02 pm
Madigan couldnt’ get all of his members in town on any day this week, yet…he controls the entire state of Illinois?
Comment by 360 Degree TurnAround Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:03 pm
===Consider a Dem Party that’s TRULY in a national civil war and fact you really can’t name a credible presidential challenger right now for 2020.===
In 1990, nobody knew who Bill Clinton was. I would guess at this point you know who he is…?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:08 pm
Rich - you seem to have a willingness to respond to those “Anonymous” commenters many of us avoid and ignore, but it does add to the overall discussion.
Many of us ignore those who are too lazy to pick a name.
Comment by illini Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:19 pm
Other than Roskam lives in Il, why should citizens in other states subsidize our expensive tax systems.
Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:24 pm
I subsidize Texas. The even with the SALT breaks.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:30 pm
Actually I subsidize MS, AL, FL, WV, AK, KY, AR, OK, TN, SC, GA, NM etc.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:33 pm
IL contributes more to the Feds than it receives.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:34 pm
===Other than Roskam lives in Il, why should citizens in other states subsidize our expensive tax systems. ===
Even with SALT, Illinois taxpayers get less than a dollar back for every dollar we send to the feds and end up subsidizing many, many other states, which are all mostly red and/or southern.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:37 pm
Can’t wait to see Roskam get booted in 11/18.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:42 pm
===Now it is newsworthy that Democrats did well in states that were previously in the Democratic camp. Wow! ===
Before Trump, Betsy DeVos had her best success in a suburban Denver school board election (Douglas County) that became hardcore voucher advocates.
After 8 years, the AFT backed slate dominated these local races in a Hard R county on Tuesday. You can deny Dem energy all you want, but the 2018 COngressional GOP will not be exempt from the midterm decline trend.
http://www.denverpost.com/2017/11/07/dougco-school-board-race-election-results/
Comment by Colo. Bellweather Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:48 pm
Say hello to the tipping point.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 1:50 pm
Virginia is a blue state that has getting more blue.
When the “Drain the Swamp” is mentioned the people now who live a 150 miles from DC fear could be effected. They have had a local boom for 30 years - this motivated them big time
Working the federal government might be the best position most people will have - recession proof with great benefits.
Comment by cannon649 Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 2:14 pm
Donnie has a 35% approval rating and falling. Keep your head buried at least until 12/18.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 2:52 pm
Dems knocked off career right wingers in the Virginia State House. Keep telling yourself that all is good in trumpland.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 2:53 pm
The crazy winger Roy Moore in Alabama is now a confirmed child molester. He’ll still win unfortunately. It’s Alabama.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 3:23 pm
Yay
Dems now convinced Trump magic is over.
Go back to sleep and keep medicating yourselves with this.
Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 3:35 pm
Trump never had magic, unless you believe in conning people as magic.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 3:45 pm
Ron, Roy Moore is toast. He won’t be runnin’ for anything shortly.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 4:12 pm
Well deserved AA.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 4:18 pm
We’ll see AA. I mean, he’s no stranger to being removed from office. He’s been removed twice from the judiciary. Maybe he wants to make a run at being removed from the legislative branch.
Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Nov 9, 17 @ 4:19 pm