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* PPP…
In Illinois’ 6th Congressional District, Republican incumbent Congressman Peter Roskam has an approval rating of 34%, and a majority (53%) of voters say they do not approve of the job he is doing. President Trump has an approval rating of 38% and a disapproval rating of 57% in Roskam’s district, while 8% of voters say they approve of the job Congress is doing and 85% say they disapprove. Speaker Paul Ryan is also unpopular with 25% of voters saying they approve of the job he is doing, and a majority (66%) responding that they disapprove.
These percentages, along with a hypothetical matchup between Roskam and a “Democratic opponent,” where Roskam has 41% of the vote and his Democratic opponent has 51%, indicate that Roskam is quite vulnerable in his upcoming re-election. The new tax plan is not popular in his district, and a majority of voters (54%) indicated they would be less likely to vote for Roskam if he voted in favor of the Republican tax plan.
PPP surveyed 599 IL-6 voters from November 9-10, 2017. The margin of error is +/- 4.0%. This poll was conducted by automated telephone interviews.
Hillary Clinton won Roskam’s district by 7 points last year, but Republican Sen. Mark Kirk won it by 6. Roskam won by 18.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:40 pm
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Bye, Bye Pete.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:44 pm
The Dems really need to get this Generic guy to run, he seems to be crushing it all over.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:47 pm
Unfortunately for the Dems, Generic Candidate always loses the Primary.
Comment by Donnie Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:49 pm
No kidding Arsenal. Generic Democrat is the best possible ballot name in 2018. I wish I had time to legally change my name, move to the 6th and circulate petitions.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:50 pm
This would be a great Dem pickup. Let’s get after it.
Comment by Molly Maguire Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:53 pm
Can’t see that district going blue. Roskam may not be popular but big GOP areas in that district like Wheaton, Glen Ellyn and Carol Stream will never vote for a cook co Democrat.
Comment by Pickles Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:54 pm
Looking at it wholistically, I would be worried. But not too worried. If resident goofball mark Kirk won the district and Roskam won by 18 pts, maybe it’s closer than 18 this time. I doubt they are sweating through their shorts.
Comment by Reaganing Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:55 pm
Rosakm has a sizable warchest of $1.3 million - Generic and named Democrats - not much.
https://chicago.suntimes.com/news/roskam-has-more-campaign-cash-on-hand-than-all-dem-rivals-combined/
Comment by Texas Red Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:57 pm
===sizable warchest of $1.3 million===
That’s petty cash. The fundraising contest will be decided at the national level.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 3:58 pm
In Spite of the Gerrymandering of this district, like all of them in Illinois can’t see a Dem winning. Putting him up against a no name isn’t the same as a real candidate with Dem. baggage. But in this crazy world who knows.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:00 pm
Hmm… this is somewhat shocking. I think I’ll reserve judgement until I see another poll or two.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:00 pm
Bost is targeted as well. Ads have been running on KMOX for months both pro and con. And the Dems are planning a major push in this district and have a strong candidate.
Davis could be vulnerable as well.
It would be interesting to see some polling in these two Districts.
Comment by illini Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:00 pm
From +18 to -10 in a year? I guess I’ll wait on the next polls to see if this an outlier. But, obviously, something’s cooking.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:01 pm
===But, obviously, something’s cooking===
Waves are weird things. I mean, when the VA Dem governor candidate won by a larger percentage margin than BHO 08, 12 and HRC 16, something happened there for sure.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:03 pm
VA Dems just retook the State House and no one saw it coming. That in a massively gerrymandered state.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:07 pm
I have never voted for a Dem for congress in 35 years but if this tax plan goes through with the SALT deduction as is from either chamber, I will next fall. i’m not in Roskam’s district but there are lots like me in lots of solid red districts. Time to be afraid, VERY afraid.
Comment by Undiscovered country Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:10 pm
I may have been one of the respondents to this poll. If so, there were several push questions meant to portray Roskam and the tax bill in a positive light. Sounds like they didn’t work very well.
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:15 pm
” there were several push questions meant to portray Roskam and the tax bill in a positive light.”
I doubt a PPP poll would put Rosakam in a positive light - they are a Democratic polling firm
Comment by Texas Red Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:18 pm
It’s a long way until November 2018. Multiple issues statewide and nationally can create major impact.
Peter should worry but not too much as of now.
I’d be interested to see any incumbent in a poll against a generic candidate. Betting incumbent’s are losing all over as of today.
Comment by DuPage Bard Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:20 pm
==I may have been one of the respondents to this poll. If so, there were several push questions meant to portray Roskam and the tax bill in a positive light. Sounds like they didn’t work very well.==
I seriously doubt PPP would do a push poll for a Republican
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:25 pm
Has Maura Sullivan made a decision on this yet? She doesn’t seem the typical D in terms of the “baggage” that a lot are speaking of.
Comment by MRL Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:26 pm
Nevermind. I see she’s running in NH-1
Comment by MRL Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:27 pm
Are there viable Democrats looking at taking Roskam on?
Comment by slow down Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:32 pm
There are I believe 7-8 Dems vying for the nomination to challenge Roskam. They come from all over the 6th: Aurora, Naperville, Barrington, Glen Ellyn and other towns in DuPage & Lake counties. The 6th only touches a bit into Cook.
Comment by Flippy Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 4:51 pm
Let us never forget that Roskam was the guy who accused disabled veteran Tammy Duckworth of following a “cut and run” strategy in Iraq. He has no class. He needs to go away as soon as possible.
Comment by DuPage Dave Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 5:07 pm
There just isn’t enough 1%’s in Roskam’s district that would benefit from his tax reform plan.
Roskam chose to take care of his donors instead of his constituents and the constituents know it.
Fatal mistake.
Comment by Chicago 20 Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 5:39 pm
Real Clear Politics yesterday put out a good article on Roskam’s predicament in the 6th.
National policy objectives leave him badly exposed
in a highly educated, highly paid suburban district.
Comment by Illinoisvoter Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 8:48 pm
Regarding “wave” elections and these poll results: if I were a state rep or state senator in a supposedly “safe” suburban GOP districts, I would be taking nothing for granted next year.
Comment by Roman Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 8:49 pm
Things I didn’t think I would see this year…Trump having a higher approval rating than Roskam in the 6th.
Comment by Lunchbox Wednesday, Nov 15, 17 @ 9:52 pm
The language of the poll certainly doesn’t portray the Republican Tax Plan in a positive light:
*
Exact language for the questions on the proposed tax plan and its provisions:
Congressional Republican Tax Proposal:
“
Based on what you know right now, would
you say you support or oppose the Republicans in Congress’ tax proposal, or have you
not heard anything about it?
Tax Plan Provision: Wealthy Tax Cut:
”
Over 80% of the tax cuts go to the top 1% — those with incomes of over $430,000 a year.
”
Tax Plan Provision: Increasing the Deficit:
“
The tax plan would increase the deficit by $1.5
trillion over the next ten years.”
Comment by TrumpsSmallHands Thursday, Nov 16, 17 @ 9:18 am