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Moving the primary

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Illinois

The Senate sent the governor a bill yesterday that will move the state’s 2008 primary up to February 5th.

I know that lots of people have real concerns about moving Illinois’ primary up next year. The weather is too inclement, the campaign season will be too long, the idea of moving the date to help Barack Obama is too partisan, it will help incumbents, blah, blah, blah.

I hadn’t thought of this one, however…

Others worry the change will result in voters getting nasty campaign mailers at the same time they are receiving Christmas cards.

I seriously doubt anyone will send negative mail during Christmas. If anything the move will compress the campaigns a bit.

Filing will begin in August, which in theory should help incumbents. But the move could conceivably backfire on legislative incumbents. The session will still be very fresh in people’s minds come August (heck, they might even still be in when filing begins) so that could prompt a whole lot of people to decide to run for the General Assembly.

I also doubt that voters will stay home in February, now that they have an opportunity to really impact a presidential race, particularly on the Republican side, which could still be wide open by then…

Other Democrats said they were tired of New Hampshire and Iowa getting all the attention and undue political influence.

“We’re doing this for the right reason,” said state Sen. Terry Link, a Waukegan Democrat. “Illinois is one of the largest states; it’s the bellwether of the United States. We should decide who the candidates are going to be in November.”

Experts on presidential primaries have said Illinois hasn’t been in a position to have much of an impact in many years, and that without moving the date, the state would be likely to languish in political obscurity.

The “helping Obama” thing is debatable. He’s our “favorite son,” so it’s probable that other Democratic candidates won’t bother even campaigning here. We won’t give the guy much of a boost, and if he does even a little worse than expected, it could hurt him.

There is one big problem with this idea, though. Other states have also become fed up with Iowa and New Hampshire’s outsized roles in choosing the president and have also moved up their primaries…

Fifteen states have moved their primaries up to that date, are considering it or already had it set for Feb. 5.

More could be on the way. Many of these are expensive media market states, so the prez campaigns might pick and choose - depending on the polling - where to campaign the most.

Anything that lengthens the campaign season is good for my business, so I have a conflict of interest here. I’m for it. Your thoughts?

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:09 am

Comments

Obama: He is the reason for the Season.
I would not be surprised if the media came out with a story with that headline.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:11 am
Every state has a primary in July. I would be all for a national primary. Longer campaign seasons are bad. The longer a politician has to campaign, the more they focus solely on getting elected and not doing what’s best for the people. The only winners of these early primaries are consultants and companies that make all the money off of elections.

Comment by Robbie Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:18 am
It might just help the campaigning but you still need to turn out the vote. If the past election is any indication, having the voters get a declared holiday week off to vote still won’t change voter apathy in Illinois. I think it is simply an ego trip. We need to focus on voter turnout and that needs to start with political science education in high school and college. Till then, American Idol will be the winner, special interests will be the winner, and we, the general population will be gagging on GRT and becoming a bankrupt state. Hey, there is always hope. This small change could just change things….ya think? Don’t let up!!

Comment by Justice Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:41 am
It would not surprise me if some nit-wit long shot tests the waters around Christmas time and comes out with a semi-negative campaign flier. If there’s no huge backlash, then in 2011, Katy bar the door. Nothing surprises me in politics.

Comment by Little Egypt Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:53 am
What are the fifteen states holding primaries or caucuses on February 15, 2008?

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 9:57 am
Campaign mail and Christmas cards? That’s a real concern? Pathetic.

Comment by Curt Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:06 am
I think it is a bad deal for getting the average citizen into public office. I’m under no “Mr. Smith Goes to Washington” illusion here, but to have the filing date in August, and thus making the campaign 1 1/2 years long, it will be next to impossible for the average citizen to get involved and run for office. It might also turn people more off to politics (if that’s possible) due to the never ending campaign season.

Comment by downstateyp Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:16 am
I like the national primary idea. No state should have an advantage over the others. I don’t care what the date is, but it should be the same for all.

Comment by even Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:18 am
You are addressing the symptom, not the disease.

Why was CA a big primary in 1968? Why could Bobby K jump into the race AFTER New Hampshire and still have a shot?

Campaign finance reform. Or, rather, lack of it.

Once you fix THAT issue, the primary issue sorts itself out. The ONLY reason early ones count is that they lead to a funding snowball effect.

Strip away that effect, and the other states suddenly become meaningful.

Comment by Pat collins Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:21 am
i’d imagine that only hillary clinton would have the money to compete in the expensive chicago media market AND the california media markets. hard to see why anyone besides clinton would even consider contesting illinois. and i’d think that hillary will basically concede illinois “out of respect to senator obama.” if she wins, she will need him more than he’ll need her.

to downstateyp: don’t we already have a never ending campaign season? i figured the permanent campaign moved to illinois with the election of the guv’na…

Comment by bored now Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:23 am
Re:bored

I don’t think we do now. For an example, nobody right now is running an open campaign for State Rep or Senate. When this comes into play, there is no doubt in my mind, by May this next time around, there will already be people campaigning for the seats.

Comment by downstateyp Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:34 am
This move is permanent, according to the news stories, not a one-time-let’s-help-Obama move. That reveals the true reason behind the change: to help incumbents–particularly those backed by the party machines–to stay comfortably in office.

The change means a five-week campaign following the holidays, hardly enough time for a challenger to get his or her message out against an entrenched incumbent.

It means getting independent voters (i.e, those not at the public trough or with relatives/neighbors/friends at the public trough) to come out and vote in bitter winter conditions.

Even before this ridiculous move, Illinois had the earliest non-presidential primary in the nation. This new primary calendar is even more lopsided in favoring those in power at the expense of those challenging power.

Comment by Up North Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:40 am
Whether it’s a good or bad idea, it looks like it’s a done deal, so let’s chat about mechanics.
Anyone know the first day petitions can be filed for State Rep. under these new rules of engagement?

Comment by Jeff B. Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 10:53 am
The petition filing occurs nor more than 99 and not less than 92 days prior the date of the primary. Accordingly, wouldn’t the filing period be between October 29, 2008 and November 5, 2008? Not August?

Comment by PetitionFiler Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:30 am
…Although petitions could begin to be circulated in early August…

Comment by PetitionFiler Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:36 am
Last post…I meant October & November 2007.

Comment by PetitionFiler Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:39 am
Vested interest, Jeff B.? I think the overall idea of making the primaries earlier and more compressed is stupid. One thing the old-fashioned long primary season accomplished was to vet candidates. It takes time and media exposure to really vet a potential presidential candidate. My concern is that one or both parties are going to get somebody with a lock on the nomination in February and then find out about April or May that said person is a dud.

A really useful primary system would provide meaningful contests from about March through June and have the conventions in July or August (possibly with the nominations not totally locked up by that time).

I’m not sure how to revert to that way of doing it, but I do know that the way we are going now is the opposite direction of where we need to be going.

Comment by HoosierDaddy Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:43 am
This is a lousy move because it will make the primary campaigns EVEN COLDER than off-year municipals.

The legislature/governor must really despise their campaign workers.

Comment by Viator Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:49 am
As someone who works precincts in elections, having a shorter primary campaign is great. Getting petitions signed in August, rather than at Thanksgiving, is also a benefit.

Comment by Loyal Whig Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:59 am
Will it be a shorter primary campaign? I know traditionally these things kicked into high gear come the new year, but now with a Feb. 5 date, I imagine a lot of precinct workers could be pressed into more service post-Thanksgiving.
I kind of doubt voters will want to pay much attention over the Christmas season, however. So it will be interesting how that plays out.

I think the Feb. 5 date does help Obama, since media perceptions are going to be key, and if it’s still a competitive race (who knows - it might be over after IO, NV, NH, SC), then the press will be looking for, “Who won how many primaries on super duper Tuesday?” Every state in the Obama “win” column will be a plus.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 12:18 pm
I like the idea of moving the Illinois Presidential Primary back to Feb. 5, but the other primaries for state, local, county and other Federal Offices should not be that early. No matter in the long run it will help to protect incumbents.

Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 1:11 pm
Rich, the thing that nobody is talking about here is that Obama will likely bring in a bunch of new voters into the process.

From a campaign perspective, how do you ID those voters, make sure they vote in your election and for your candidate? If I’m an incumbent in this election, I’d be very careful.

That said, incumbents tend to understand the machinery of politics a little better than challengers. Either way, because there is no midterm/constitutional election, it will be easy for people to organize earlier.

Comment by Tom B. Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 1:22 pm
best real accomplishment of the session -to date
Madigan and Jones deserve a lot of credit.

Comment by Reddbyrde Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 1:58 pm
If the Bears happen to win the Super Bowl, there is very likely to be a conflict between Primary Day and the victory parade/rally.

Regardless of who winds up being in the Super Bowl, the Sunday before the primary, might that have an effect on door to door canvassing? Especially if it is the Bears?

Comment by Establishment Republican Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 2:27 pm
I don’t like this idea at all. I know it’s good for the career hacks and campaigners but it’s bad for the rest of us. Now politicians will need more money and races will be even more bitter than before.

Look at the excitement of last year’s Senatorial race in Connecticut. The Lamont-Lieberman race in the primary and then in the general were great examples of how a short-yet-intense general election campaign window can peek people’s interest while still not hampering the candidate.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 5:06 pm
Actually, Hillary Clinton is our “favorite ’son’”; she is at least FROM Illinois. Obama is actually Hawaii’s favorite son. Not that I care for either one of them, of course.

Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:02 pm
Note to Establishment Republican: You and the ardent supporters of the Presidential candidates of both political parties need not fret about that potential conflict with the Bears Super Bowl Parade and the Primary Election on Feb. 5. Betweem their tougher schedule (from having finished atop their division last year) and Rex the Blunder Bear, the Bears will be at their off-season golf courses while we schlep in the snow to the polls.

My only hope is that with so many major states (including California, New York, Michigan and Texas) also having primaries on February 5, no Presidential candidate will emerge with a decisive win. If that happens, the Democrats will be stuck with most of their delegates having been selected and with virtually no way to avoid a first ballot deadlock 6 1/2 months later. That, and only that, will put an end to the nonsense of mid-winter primaries.

Comment by Randall Sherman Wednesday, May 16, 07 @ 11:25 pm