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* Polling memo…
February 21, 2018
To: Biss for Illinois
From: Brian Stryker
Re: February Statewide Poll FindingsDaniel Biss continues to close the gap between him and JB Pritzker, trailing Pritzker by only 8 points. He has grown his vote by 20 points and caught Chris Kennedy with only two TV ads, and there’s a clear path for Biss to victory if he has the resources to continue to get his message out and build his name ID.
Key Findings
• Biss has shot up in the polls after just more than one TV ad’s worth of airtime.
We polled in the midst of Biss’ second TV ad with major movement for Biss. It’s noteworthy that between our two polls, Daniel Biss has spent roughly less than $2 million on TV while JB Pritzker has spent more than $20 million:• Biss has a healthy lead among voters who know all three major candidates, often a good predictor of where the race is likely to go. Daniel Biss leads by 9 points among people who can identify him, Pritzker, and Kennedy (35% Biss / 26% Pritzker / 25% Kennedy).
The following findings are based off a poll of n=500 likely March 2018 Illinois Democratic primary voters conducted February 6-11, 2018. The survey was conducted on cellphones and landlines; it has a margin of sampling error of +4.4% and higher for subgroups.
*** UPDATE *** Here’s something I didn’t take into account with the Biss poll until someone called to point it out. Biss may have deliberately sent his pollster into the field on February 6th because it’s the very same day the Tribune published a story about the Pritzker conversation with Rod Blagojevich caught on wiretap about appointing a black person to the US Senate. So, yeah, Pritzker would definitely not be doing well on that day and for several days afterward.
Something to consider anyway.
* Chart…
* From late January…
The We Ask America poll of 811 likely voters was taken Jan. 29-30 and shows Pritzker ahead at 29.79 percent, followed by Biss at 17.43 percent. Businessman Chris Kennedy was in third with 11.50 percent. And it shows that 37.95 percent of those polled are still undecided.
* Pritzker poll from late January…
JB currently leads with 41% of the vote, ahead of Daniel Biss at 22%, Chris Kennedy at 16%, and 20% of voters undecided.
* Pritzker poll from mid February…
Results: 37 percent of the those polled backed Pritzker, with Kennedy at 23 percent and Biss with 21 percent.
All but the WAA poll have Biss in the low-to-mid twenties.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 8:56 am
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It seems to me that the real story is Pritzker is bleeding and may have peaked, and we are heading toward a 3-way race within the margin of error.
Do the Chicago/Cook County operations stay with Pritzker, or do they make a last minute switch?
Comment by ILPundit Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:00 am
Kennedy’s message on high property taxes will put him over the top. It’ll be a late surge but I think another story is the way the ballot is printed. I think people will skip Pritzker in disgust & punch the next name….Kennedy.
Comment by Lake County voter Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:05 am
ILPundit,
I don’t think a 10~ point Pritzker lead is that dire for him. And I don’t see what’s going to make him drop further.
Comment by Angel's Sword Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:05 am
For me,
Looking at this poll, Pritzker is still leaking, but if I look at the spread between Pritzker and whomever is second, it’s still beyond the MOE, and Pritzker has a ground game, field operations, and groups that know how to find and get pluses and make them voters.
Biss needs early voting. Why? I don’t know if Biss can compete on Election Day to drive his own turnout in a surge on one day.
If this polling is accurate and within 8, every day Biss isn’t voting pluses is a day lost and a possible plurality spread increasing of actual raw ballots.
The AA community. Where is Biss reaching out there?
If Kennedy is indeed the spoiler, I dunno, but for this discussion let’s say he is, will it be in AA voters that Kennedy took Biss’ chances to overtake Pritzker?
Biss needs voters to vote now, and Biss needs to reach out to AA voters, or being 8 points down might be as close as he gets.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:10 am
If you take this poll as true, Biss’ surge is due to EVERY undecided voter who decided on a candidate deciding on Biss.
That seems…unlikely.
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:20 am
I’ve gotten a couple of text messages from the Biss campaign in the last few weeks. It’s the first time any campaign has reached out to me via text. Kinda surprising that in this day and age where most people have cell phones, this method of reaching voters isn’t used more often.
Comment by ??? Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:22 am
so all that money from both of them and Chris Kennedy is tied with Biss? and that’s before the Tribune endorsement? seems to me the spoiler is Biss.
Comment by Amalia Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:22 am
From what I’ve heard, Pritzker’s ground game is pretty serious. (That’s not me being partisan — it’s just what I’ve heard from people.)
Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:25 am
==Do the Chicago/Cook County operations stay with Pritzker, or do they make a last minute switch?==
There’s not a whole lot here to warrant that kind of panic. No one was expecting JB to maintain 20 point leads once the other candidates got on the air.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:26 am
===seems to me the spoiler is Biss.===
Since this is Biss’ poll, I’m looking at all this from the Biss perspective.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:26 am
==and that’s before the Tribune endorsement?==
I’m dubious the Trib endorsement means much in a Democratic primary, though to the extent it does it’s no help to Biss.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:27 am
Does anyone know of ALG’s history of polling in Illinois? I’m not familiar with most of the polling firms.
Comment by Anonish Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:30 am
Why are people saying Pritzker’s lead is outside the MOE? You apply the +/- 4.4 to each candidate’s polling number. An 8 point lead is within that MOE.
I still think Pritzker’s money advantage allows him to hang on by the skin of his teeth. But I hope to be proven wrong.
Comment by Peter Skills Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:31 am
==so all that money from both of them and Chris Kennedy is tied with Biss?==
He’s got the name. That’s all that’s ever kept him in this, and in a primary, there’s always some reserve of people who will vote for the name. If his last name was Johnson, he’d be polling at 2%.
Comment by PJ Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:37 am
At the end of the day, Pritzker and Kennedy rely on the traditional primary voter. Older and AA voters. They will always vote and aren’t likely to be swayed towards Biss. Biss is relying on the younger, progressive vote that showed up in the ‘16 primary, but is unlikely to show up for a midterm primary. I’ve said it before to friends, 2002 Dem primary. Blago lost cook and collars but swept downstate. I can see Pritzker doing the same (although unlikely he loses Cook and all the collars).
Comment by UIUC Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:42 am
==Does anyone know of ALG’s history of polling in Illinois?==
The more important thing to consider is that this is an internal poll, and those are only released to push or rebut a narrative. So, what story is Biss trying to tell with these numbers?
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:50 am
I’m not sure I’d be proud of being tied with Chris Kennedy in the governor’s race. Kennedy’s campaign has done more to undermine his own campaign than all of his opponents combined.
Comment by MG85 Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 9:59 am
ALG is a fantastic pollster - one of the best in IL. They have done polling for Senate Dems among others. But the dates of this poll are the first thing I noticed and they tell you all you need to know. As Rich points out, they went into the field right as the last Trib story hit. I had privately predicted he would take a temporary ten point hit which this poll shows.
Pritzker’s more recent poll shows he recovered a lot of that. Simply put, and I know Willy may disagree, but it’s not clear that Biss has been able to capitalize on Pritzker’s troubles. A small benefit may have gone to Kennedy but either one of those guys has to get past the other to take on JB. As 47 said yesterday, it’s like pushing a balloon.
Comment by Anon0091 Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:00 am
Pritzker is up by 8 with less than 30 days to go. Having endured a barrage of negative ads courtesy of the Rauner/Biss team his lead is amazing in and of itself. It is even more amazing that he is beating a Kennedy who has the best name recognition that any candidate could ever have.
Comment by sloppymath Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:04 am
Lake County Dem @ 9:20 — “That seems…unlikely.”
–
Right — you’re on to something, especially since this is a Biss internal poll. Something smells a little in these numbers.
Comment by Flapdoodle Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:04 am
==but it’s not clear that Biss has been able to capitalize on Pritzker’s troubles==
The problem is/was, the negative ads on Biss started up at almost the exact same time JB took his lumps, so even while everyone was beating on JB, Biss wasn’t getting a free pass.
Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:06 am
**Pritzker’s more recent poll shows he recovered a lot of that.**
They overlapped for about half of the sample. There JB poll was in the field until 2 days later than the Biss poll. I doubt there is much difference in the “recovery.” Its just two different polls, with different samples, different turnout assumptions, etc.
Comment by SaulGoodman Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:07 am
Pritzker is still leaking, but it’s more obvious that the numbers for Pritzker aren’t growing.
You don’t run the “closing argument” ads with endorsements and verbiage wanting discussion to be about the decision 5 weeks before Election Day unless the leaking is still a worry, and more of a worry than building up a peaking.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:14 am
Am I missing something or does the poll indicate that all undecideds support Biss now?
Comment by Red fish blue fish Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:24 am
“Biss has a healthy lead among voters who know all three major candidates, often a good predictor of where the race is likely to go.”
Uh, no. 1) Not everyone is going to learn more, 2) He outperforms with voters who are paying more attention. He’s assuming the electorate will change when he’s just citing a strength he has right now. Nice spin.
Comment by Nope Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:30 am
I got a call from the Biss campaign. I told the woman I can’t support a candidate that wants to tax the Chicago exchanges and therein destroy the city.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:38 am
You can’t infer from undecideds being down 19 and Biss being up 19 that this is saying every formerly undecided voter who decided on a candidate chose Biss. You also have to account for votes. You also have to account for voters who were supporting candidates who have since dropped out (roughly 5%), movement between candidates, and sampling variability. I don’t see any reason to doubt the poll based on this.
Comment by Nacho Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 11:03 am
Tio Hardiman moving up. Who are the people breaking that way?? / s
Comment by huh Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 12:21 pm
This primary is JB’s to lose. Back in October, I thought Rauner had no chance against any of the top 3 Dems, and I largely still think Rauner is very likely to lose in November…but I’m starting to think that if there’s one guy out of these three Bruce can squeak by with a handful of votes…It’s JB.
If it is a Rauner/Pritzker race, I don’t plan on voting for either of them. I sense there would be many people under-voting that match-up.
Comment by The Snowman Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 2:37 pm
This seems a lot like “Fun with numbers.” Just saying you are making a move in the polls, does not mean it is true. I will await some real poll results as we get closer to election day. I bet those numbers will be very different then the push poll by Biss.
Comment by Retired Educator Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 2:47 pm
You ever see Daniel Biss walk? He doesn’t move his elbows. His arms hang like salamis.* It’s like he’s carrying invisible suitcases.* As for the actual election…I don’t see Biss doing too well outside of Cook, Lake and DuPage County.
*credit to Seinfeld
Comment by The Snowman Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 4:02 pm
Seems that PrItzker’s lead is soft. Strong field operation is great to have, but don’t know if it’s as big an advantage in a high profile race. On the other hand, Dan Bliss has a particular constituency and there is nothing to date that indicates he can attract voters beyond that. Chris is the wild card. Despite a less-than-mediocre campaign, he is generating really good media endorsements and may be catching on Downstate, particularly further south where there is a good size Democratic vote.
Comment by Midwestern Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 7:44 pm
Snowman, all the votes are in those counties though.
Comment by Ron Thursday, Feb 22, 18 @ 10:03 pm