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* More Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll results. Remember, these are registered voters, not likely voters, which may be why they’re not matching up with some of the tracking poll results I’ve seen…
In the most recent statewide version of the Simon Poll, Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner leads challenger Jeanne Ives, a state representative from Wheaton, in the Republican Primary, by 20 points, 51 percent to 31 percent. Businessman JB Pritzker leads State Sen. Daniel Biss in the crowded Democratic primary by 10 points, 31 percent to 21 percent. Former University of Illinois Board of Trustees Chairman Chris Kennedy trails in third place, at 17 percent. […]
In hypothetical general election matchups, asked of the full sample, Gov. Rauner trails both leading Democratic candidates by similar margins: Pritzker leads the governor 50 percent to 35 percent, while Biss leads Rauner 48 percent to 34 percent.
“It’s interesting that Pritzker’s and Biss’s margins over Rauner are essentially the same in The Simon Poll,” said Charlie Leonard, an Institute visiting professor involved in the polling. “One explanation may be that in the minds of voters—who may know little about either Biss or Pritzker—the decision may come down to ‘Rauner versus not-Rauner.’ If the election were held today, I’d rather be ‘not-Rauner.’”
Both Pritzker and Biss lead the governor by wide margins in the City of Chicago and the Chicago suburbs (see Table 9), while downstate, Rauner leads Pritzer by three points and leads Biss by eight points—keeping in mind the smaller sample sizes and wider margins for error in the geographic subgroups.
“It is three weeks to go until the March 20th Primary and major events could still move these numbers,” said John S. Jackson, another designer of this poll. “However, for all the money and attention these two races have garnered, the results so far fairly faithfully reflect the bedrock strength of these two parties in the state of Illinois, and this advantages the Democrats.”
Those are not good Democratic primary numbers for Pritzker, to say the least. And Ives at 31 means she’d better get a big check soon. Rauner’s general election Downstate lead over Pritzker is very small, considering the recent trends in this state.
* Regional breakdowns…
* More…
In the poll of 1,001 registered voters across Illinois, conducted February 19 through 25, the margin for error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is important to remember that among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is significantly wider: plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
That’s a pretty small GOP sample.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:46 am
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I just don’t get why not poll likely voters, especially 3 weeks out.
Comment by Anonish Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:54 am
Rauner’s general election numbers stink. Can’t fool all of the people, all of the time.
How do you argue that Ives is unelectable with general election numbers like that (dishonestly, I know)?
Ives needs to show this to Sugar Daddy Dick, toot-sweet, and collect one of those powerful checks.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:55 am
This is not a meaningful poll. Registered vs likely less than three weeks out? And only 259 Republicans and 472 Democrats? Cmon Paul Simon Institute.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:56 am
Following millions of dollars of attack ads funded by Bruce Rauner, JB leads all candidates in every region by ALOT. Regardless, the polls that JB is conducting which are much more comprehensive that the Paul Simon polls, show JB up by even more.
Comment by vaguely Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:56 am
==One explanation may be that in the minds of voters—who may know little about either Biss or Pritzker==
I find it hard to believe that JB is just a “not Rauner” cipher, though that’s probably what he’d like to be.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:57 am
===Following millions of dollars of attack ads funded by Bruce Rauner, JB leads all candidates in every region by ALOT===
Pretty easy to turn that one around. “Following millions of dollars of positive ads, he’s still barely up on an opponent with a small fraction of his money”.
Comment by PJ Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:01 am
**Following millions of dollars of attack ads funded by Bruce Rauner, JB leads all candidates in every region by ALOT.**
That’s one way to look at it. The other way is that JB has spent $50 million dollars, and is still only sitting at 31%.
Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:03 am
I set the number for Ives at 37.5 and I’m liking where this poll is for her… getting close to hitting 37.5…
Going by this polling… Rauner will still win with a 26 point shellacking, but Ives can come in with a better than 1 in 3 vote total against a sitting governor.
Can’t see my number “today” moving off that 37.5… yet.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:03 am
==“Following millions of dollars of positive ads, he’s still barely up on an opponent with a small fraction of his money”.==
Except that a 10 point lead is hardly “barely up”.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:04 am
A big disappointment for me is that there is not a moderate Republican running against Rauner. But how would this person get big funding to compete with Rauner in today’s Republican world of homophobia, xenophobia and union-busting far rightness? I can’t see someone like Uihlein funding a pro-union Republican who’s moderate or liberal socially.
It is great, again, to see Democrats far ahead of Rauner. I think they should spend more time attacking Rauner.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:04 am
==Going by this polling… Rauner will still win with a 26 point shellacking, but Ives can come in with a better than 1 in 3 vote total against a sitting governor.==
Tio Hardiman only got 28% against Pat Quinn and it was a sign of real danger to come. If I’m Rauner, I like nothing in this poll.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:07 am
When Ives upsets Rauner 20 days from now this poll is going to look pretty silly.
Comment by I’ll-have-the-rigatoni Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:10 am
Wasn’t Getz kicked off the ballot? If so why was he in the poll?
Comment by Uiuc Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:11 am
There aren’t a lot of undecideds for the General. It seems most have already decided not Rauner.
Rauner may as well save his money instead of meddling in the primary like a Russian.
Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:11 am
Willy, my Ives number has been 38. So I’ll stick with that. But given the small sample and registered voter screens, I wouldn’t take this poll to the bank.
Comment by Anon0091 Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:12 am
My takeaway is that there is not a single person of either party running for Gov or AG that people are excited to support. Talk about a major failure of leadership or bench of both parties.
Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:13 am
Memo to JB:
You’ve spent $50 mil and there are still 25% undecided? Winning, but your saving grace is Kennedy and Biss splitting the progressive vote.
Time to get a new media adviser.
Comment by Soapbox Derby Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:13 am
===this poll is going to look pretty silly===
Or you will. lol
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:14 am
===Except that a 10 point lead is hardly “barely up”.===
You think a 10 point lead in a race where 25% of the electorate is undecided is impressive or stable?
Comment by PJ Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:15 am
@AJack @11:11 AM
“Rauner may as well save his money instead of meddling in the primary like a Russian.”
Nobody meddles in a primary better than the DNC.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:15 am
I think this overestimates Pritzker. The other polls we’ve seen have shown a difference with the likely voters and I think they’ll be enough to swing this election.
Comment by Thomas Zane Stepp Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:17 am
=My takeaway is that there is not a single person of either party running for Gov or AG that people are excited to support.=
I think some money behind Harold would change that. The GOP should be excited about her.
Comment by m Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:18 am
==You think a 10 point lead in a race where 25% of the electorate is undecided is impressive or stable?==
It’s sure not “barely up”.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:18 am
Unpopular opinion: a hefty chance that Ives hits the 40s, a nonzero (
Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:18 am
===Businessman JB Pritzker leads State Sen. Daniel Biss in the crowded Democratic primary by 10 points, 31 percent to 21 percent. Former University of Illinois Board of Trustees Chairman Chris Kennedy trails in third place, at 17 percent.===
Pritzker - 31
Biss - 21
Kennedy - 17
Pritzker leading, while Rauner is defining him, and Pritzker still beating Rauner in the horse race…
It’s about the GOTV, field ops, and finishing string with a ground game Pritzker can call upon now and Election Day to get him at or above 39%, the sweet spot win.
It’s March Madness time… “survive and advance”
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:19 am
==The other polls we’ve seen have shown a difference with the likely voters and I think they’ll be enough to swing this election.==
The other polls all show similar margins, just fewer undecideds (which makes sense going from RVs to LVs).
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:20 am
It would have been interesting to see how this primary would have played out without Kennedy. Way back at the start of this race, I thought there was a possibility that Kennedy and Pritzker split centrist democrats, giving Biss a shot by consolidating progressives.
However,Pritzker did a great job at establishing himself as the front runner, so the relevant divide is between JB/not JB rather than center/left, so Kennedy might be siphoning more from Biss than Pritzker. Biss’s pension reform record also definitely helped make this strategy viable.
I don’t see Kennedy dropping out, so I think Pritzker looks pretty secure, absent some final bombshell Blago tape. Even though I won’t be voting for him in the primary, I’m happpy to see he’s looking strong against Rauner.
Comment by Actual Red Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:20 am
I am a little surprised at the downstate numbers for Ives. I would have expected those to be above the reported 25%. Rauner was in Fayette County over the weekend but all I have seen around this area are Ives signs. I expect Ives will win some of the downstate counties, especially south of Interstate 70. I don’t think she will win but I would guess 40% of the votes statewide is within reach.
Comment by Fayette County Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:21 am
Seems as if my comment cut off. Whoops.
Non-zero (
Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:22 am
Don’t democrats out number republicans in Illinois? Could this be the reason why more dems were sampled in a blue state in a year considered a democrat wave?
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:23 am
===However,Pritzker did a great job at establishing himself as the front runner===
Really? How do?
The Pritzker Crew flat out refused to divulge polling that could’ve thwarted Kennedy and Biss, establishing a front-runner position, forcing all to chase… then the endorsements rolled out, again, still not grasping that front runner mantle, almost purposely staying away from it in hopes to sneak up on everyone, while spending millions at a clip of 7 at a time…
… it’s only after a poll, reluctantly, had Pritzker leading that the Crew kinda ran with it… then the Blago tapes.
So what am I missing?
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:25 am
== I wouldn’t take this poll to the bank.==
That’s smart because in this crazy year nobody in any campaign should take any poll “to the bank”. With this many candidates it’s just too hard to weight the respondents properly (assuming that the pollsters even *want* to, and are trying to weight the respondents properly).
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:27 am
Voter apathy and low turnout=much narrower margins for all.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:30 am
That’s smart because in this crazy year nobody in any campaign should take any poll “to the bank”.
-Maybe not a single poll, but all polls released so far from all sources show GovJunk losing in the General.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:30 am
==However,Pritzker did a great job at establishing himself as the front runner, so the relevant divide is between JB/not JB rather than center/left, so Kennedy might be siphoning more from Biss than Pritzker.==
I think the bigger factor is that Kennedy still hasn’t quite landed on whether he’s an “insider” or an “outsider”. He certainly started out as an insider (with that name, how do you avoid it?) and many of his positions are to the right of Democratic voters. Later, his rhetoric toward the “establishment” turned pretty caustic, but it seems like more out of personal pique than conviction.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:30 am
===Voter apathy and low turnout===
The trend, nationally, since 2016, has been a higher turnout, purposeful turnout, voting for a cause, reason, or messsge.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:33 am
The main thing this tells me is Rauner’s toast.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:34 am
Anon at 11:15 “Nobody meddles in a primary better than the DNC.”
Please take your negativity elsewhere.
—-
Barring an unforeseen scandal, I don’t think we are in for a surprise on March 20. Kennedy and Biss will oscillate between each other and Pritzker will eke out a victory.
Comment by Red fish blue fish Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:34 am
-m-
The GOP should be excited about Harold. She seems smart and capable. The problem is that she is going for the top legal job in the state, and she is apparently not yet qualified by administrative, political, or significant legal experience. Voters can see that, perhaps similar to tepid reception to Kennedy and J.B.
Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:35 am
Well “Anonymous,” do you have an example or is that just more fakes news of the Rauner variety?
Speaking of fake news, it seems like Ives could put out an ad tying Russia’s love of fake news to Rauner’s love of fake news. That could appeal to her base. Rauner and Putin, both masters of cover ups and fake news. I don’t think anyone has tried that linkage yet.
Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:36 am
“So what am I missing?”
The fact that Pritzker has been pummeled by Rauner and his two Democratic opponents and he is still +10.
Comment by a drop in Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:37 am
Ow. My friends at the courthouse tell me early voting numbers woefully low. Just curious statewide. Got any feel?
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:39 am
For all that talk Biss was talking about the downstate debate we still see Pritzker with more votes than him there.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:40 am
Ow. My friends at the courthouse tell me early voting numbers woefully low. Just curious statewide. Got any feel?
-Early voting dates were changed in Chicago I know. Low numbers could be from that and confusion on when it will begin.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:42 am
==My friends at the courthouse tell me early voting numbers woefully low. Just curious statewide. Got any feel?==
It doesn’t look like any of the campaigns are emphasizing early vote.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:42 am
As more information comes out in the next couple weeks, explaining the cover-up of information regarding the Veterans Home, Ives numbers could go up. This poll was conducted prior to todays release of emails. There is some more bad news for Rauner and his minions. Pritzker looks comfortable, but needs to take advantage of the gifts being given to him by the inept BTIA. I agree with OW somebody better figure out how to use the multiple scandals involving Rauner. It seems like they are waiting this out instead of leading from the front.
Comment by Retired Educator Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:44 am
Live in a town of 5000 in central illinois. I have not seen one Rauner sign. Dozens of Ives. She won’t win but people here have had enough of Rauner. Stranger things have happened of course, but I think he is toast in general election.
Comment by Sparky791 Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:47 am
== early voting numbers woefully low==
Since I think people voting early this year in the primary know they might miss events/revelations still to come– and since there are so many undecideds– I am not surprised that voters are biding their time. That’s not woeful. That’s a good thing IMO.
Comment by Responsa Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:47 am
@Red Fish Blue Fish
It’s not “negativity” to call out the DNC when the meddle in a primary, its factual.
Just ask Bernie Sanders his opinion on the matter.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:50 am
–Voter apathy and low turnout=much narrower margins for all.–
That doesn’t make any sense. There’s no mathematical relationship between turnout and the percentage margins.
The margins could be the same if the turnout is 100 or one million.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:51 am
I voted last week in the Loop at the only polling place open so far in Chicago. It was empty. The workers attributed that to confusion over when early voting was starting plus the polling place has moved to Adams across from the Berghoff.
Comment by Cheryl44 Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:53 am
“It’s about the GOTV, field ops, and finishing string with a ground game Pritzker can call upon now”
I see in social media that the Pritzker campaign is really focusing on the ground game, opening and working the field offices.
Rauner’s latest anti-Madigan commercial looks so whiny—Madigan hates Bruce Rauner. I laughed out loud when I saw that on a big TV screen. How can voters trust that Rauner will stop Madigan when he already failed at doing that?
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:54 am
Crazy millions down the drain and all I was tryin to do was get to be in charge.
Comment by jimk849 Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:55 am
Sparky. I saw the same thing driving through four counties the other day. I think the Rauner fans(what few are left) have packed it in and might sit this one out. Time will tell.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:56 am
If I were Rauner I’d be embarrassed. Millions of dollars spent and the sitting governor and he’s only at 51% over Ives.
Comment by Anon Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:58 am
Ives being the nominee would assure the Dem wins. Which of course she won’t be. She is an awful person.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:58 am
===it seems like Ives could put out an ad===
If she had any money
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:01 pm
Ron. I assure you. The Dems will win over Rauner.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:01 pm
Cheryl, I voted earlier this week downtown. It was crickets.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:02 pm
==Ives being the nominee would assure the Dem wins.==
Yeah, folks said the same thing about Trump.
Frankly, I think Ives matches up better against Pritzker than Rauner does.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:02 pm
Blue Dog, I’ll vote for Rauner against any Dem. I’ll vote for any Dem against Ives.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:03 pm
Anti abortion nut jobs don’t cut in Illinois.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:03 pm
Anti abortion nut jobs. Wow.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:05 pm
Robert Marshall should be very proud that he polls at 1% in each of the three Illinoisan states
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:05 pm
–I voted earlier this week downtown. It was crickets.–
What were your expectations, voting a month early for a March mid-term primary?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:07 pm
I always vote early. Never have I seen it so empty.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:10 pm
Just made a call to another downstate county clerk office. Ditto.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:13 pm
Seems like a logical conclusion from all this fresh data is if GovJunk will lose anyway why not toss him in the primary as a purity test?
Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:15 pm
I am hearing from R’s that they are going to vote for Ives in order to send a message to Rauner. They feel he will win the primary but if the vote is close that will give him a message. My thought is Rauner will not change is stripes now or ever.
Comment by Nearly Normal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:20 pm
@Ron
You seem to be republican. If you live in a republican area and you say your polling place is empty? Seems as if none of your neighbors are showing up for GovJunk
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:21 pm
I’m a Democrat and I live in Chicago.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:36 pm
==Yeah, folks said the same thing about Trump.==
And how did Trump do in Illinois? The Southern US doesn’t get a vote in this election.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:37 pm
Voted for Kennedy. Will vote for Rauner in the general though.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:37 pm
A democrat voting for Rauner?
Yeah ok
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:37 pm
Kennedy seems to lean R. I don’t think you are a true democrat
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:38 pm
==Frankly, I think Ives matches up better against Pritzker than Rauner does.==
In Alabama, sure. This isn’t Alabama.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:39 pm
Rauner is the first and only Republican I have voted for.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:41 pm
Illinois Dems are terrible. To be fair, IL republicans are too.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:42 pm
Voted
Dukakis
Clinton
Clinton
Gore
Kerry
Obama
Obama
Clinton
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:42 pm
@ Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:39 pm
Agreed, Ives wouldn’t break 40% in a general.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:43 pm
Rauner is the first and only Republican I have voted for.
-wow
Of all Republicans to vote for as a Democrat you choose this souless guy?
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:44 pm
IL is essentially a kleptocracy of pols and public employee unions.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:44 pm
==In Alabama, sure. This isn’t Alabama.==
Hell, Alabama ain’t even Alabama anymore…
Yes, her social conservatism would be a big problem, especially since she can’t seem to keep her mouth shut about it. But she could run a populist message against JB and Biss that Rauner could never pull off.
That being said, she’s probably too undisciplined to do that.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:47 pm
Pritzker attacking Kennedy makes me suspect that the tracking polls Rich alludes to show Kennedy making a late surge, but it’s still disheartening that Kennedy and Biss are both still in the race. It was clear weeks ago that the primary was not about policy differences but about the establishment vs. change/reformers. Though I’ll hope for a miracle, I expect Pritzker will win and I’ll be voting for the lesser of two evils as I did four years ago voting for Quinn.
Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:47 pm
BTW, I really dislike Jim Edgar. One of our worst ever.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:49 pm
Myself, it’s anyone but Rauner (and Ives). But I understand the betrayal Ives supporters feel. Rauner was copa with making lots of money from public sector employees for many years, then as candidate and governor he slammed and attacked their unions.
Rauner is more interested in the Great Transformation (national stripping of public employee union rights) than governing. He said as much himself. The results have been disastrous.
The problem with that is even if Janus wins, I’d bet it’s very unlikely that Rauner would push AFSCME and other unions out as sole bargaining reps. Lots of state workers think very badly of Rauner. It’s not good governance, thinking he can achieve his policy aims in the near future by getting AFSCME members to leave the union in numbers enough to end their representation.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:02 pm
Rauner vs Edgar. Rauner vs Pritzker. Yikes.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:04 pm
The Governor got 64% of the vote downstate last time and 38% in Cook County, with that Cook County number being one of the reasons he won. There’s no way he wins if he has that dismal a performance downstate and doesn’t make up ground in Cook County.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:12 pm
Sorry, 34% in Cook County
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:12 pm
Ron and BDD, you two have the makings of a real trollmance here. Maybe LP wants to get involved.
But you might want to inquire as to his views on the power of three.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:23 pm
Just voted for Pritzker in the loop. Turnout was pretty high today one of the poll workers said.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:24 pm
word, I know you would prefer this place remain a public employee bubble, but there are a lot of people in Illinois that have no need for one of the highest tax burdens in the nation and very little service from it.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:28 pm
@Ron
Do you really believe your taxes will be cut if public employee Unions just vanished?? I beg to differ that’s just a lie the 1 percent peddles to the gullible.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:30 pm
Biss has 15% downstate??????? 15% of the people downstate don’t even know his name much less feel positive about him.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:31 pm
Real, no I don’t. But our state has been driven into the ground by a ruling kleptocracy. I’m actually for a progressive income tax. If we eliminate pensions and public employee unions.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:34 pm
Ron, I’m certain there will always be room on the innertubes for trolls who desperately seek reaction trough ridiculously incongruous posts.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:40 pm
Ron. I like that fancy word. Kleptocracy. Greek origins. Yes Illinois and Greece have much in common. Unable to pay bills and basically bankrupt. Nice. I like it. Mind if I use it?
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:41 pm
@Ron.
Your answer gave me all the info I needed. Union haters like you say you hate Unions because of tax burden but you all know your taxes will be the same without any Unions bit just shows you are full of hot air and hate those with Union benefits because you rather the money go to a corporate boss.
Comment by Real Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:42 pm
===The fact that Pritzker has been pummeled by Rauner and his two Democratic opponents and he is still +10.===
You forgot, while leading, Pritzker is under water in his own polling.
That pummeling has had a consequence.
I didn’t miss Pritzker leading. Did you miss Pritzker under water?
With respect.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:46 pm
==I like that fancy word. Kleptocracy.==’
Oooo. Big words. Of course you have to understand their true meaning if you want to look like you halfway know what you are talking about.
==Illinois and Greece have much in common==
Oh for pete’s sake, are we back on that ridiculous notion?
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:51 pm
BDD, of course it’s appropriate to use for both Greece and Illinois.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:55 pm
If this poll is correct and if these numbers hold in November (two big ifs) then Rauner could get to that magic 20% in Chicago with plenty to spare and still lose badly. Lots of focus rightfully on how badly he’s behind where he needs to be downstate (in line with PPP having his favorable/unfavorable at 30/61 downstate) but those suburban numbers are just awful. He can’t afford to lose the Chicago suburbs at all, let alone by 15-20 points.
Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Im an independent. However I did vote in the last republican primary to support Sam Mcann. I will be voting again this time against Rauner
Comment by Generic Drone Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 2:16 pm
A major problem with Illinois’ fiscal condition and taxes is that the highest earners have been undertaxed for decades. A 3% state income tax, or thereabouts, while other states had higher rates helped contribute to our mess.
Sorry for repeating myself, but I think this is key: It is grossly unfair for a multimillionaire governor who made lots of money thanks to the public sector to seek to gouge government employees and break apart their unions. The dude can literally retire thousands of times over with his wealth, when considering median retirement income.
When this is combined with a willful refusal to negotiate and pass budgets in good faith, because compromise is never enough, it makes disastrous results.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 2:52 pm
“A 3% state income tax, or thereabouts, while other states had higher rates helped contribute to our mess.”
Yet, plenty of states have flat taxes or NO income tax. AND are not insolvent.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:04 pm
We live in a kleptocracy of pols and public employees. The vast majority of us get very little for our tax dollars.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:06 pm
“Yet, plenty of states have flat taxes or NO income tax. AND are not insolvent.”
We’re not them. We don’t have to be.
Minnesota has the highest state income tax in the region and is in the black, fiscally. Kansas slashed taxes and got burned. Same with Louisiana and Oklahoma (I think). Florida and Texas have no Medicaid expansion and lots of people working at or below the minimum wage. Different values.
Quinn the backbencher was a much better governor than Rauner. Too bad he lost.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:19 pm
==Yet, plenty of states have flat taxes or NO income tax. AND are not insolvent.==
States that levy no income tax are either very sparsely populated with few budgetary needs (Wyoming, NH) or tax the anchor industry in the state (Nevada with gambling, Texas with oil production). Illinois doesn’t fit into either category.
Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:22 pm
Texas and Florida are sparsely populated?
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:34 pm
PA has a lower flat income tax than IL, it just passed us population wise
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:35 pm
MN doesn’t have kleptocrats like Madigan.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:36 pm
IL has a higher total tax burden than MN BTW
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:37 pm
Ron: one of the most pernicious and damaging things you often say is that you don’t get much for your taxes. You get a society. Schools, hospitals, police, fire protection, roads, public transport, clean air, clean water, safe food, and others. You know, all that stuff that magically doesn’t exist in Atlas Shrugged. Sure, society also does things for people less fortunate than you, like DCFS, shelters, nursing homes, Medicaid, and the like. Do you want that to stop? You’re one bad diagnosis or accident from needing that help.
Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:58 pm
Jibba, why does all that cost so much here? You get that in most of the US for far less!
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:59 pm
Ron,
I stated “either sparsely populated … OR … tax the anchor industry.” TX (oil) and FL (tourism, aerospace) fall into the latter category.
Funny you mention Pennsylvania. Both Pittsburgh and Philly levy roughly 3-4% in city income taxes. Illinois municipalities are forbidden from imposing those types of taxes.
Comment by TKMH Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 4:02 pm
Yet PA still has lower state and local tax burden.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 4:04 pm
Ron- I’m open to comparing ourselves to others and rooting out corruption. But I think you will find the someone, somewhere pays. Tourists, the Feds, big extraction industries, etc, which we lack. I don’t blame public unions for everything. I do blame both Dems and Rs for political cowardice and malfeasance.
Comment by Jibba Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 4:11 pm
I do blame both Dems and Rs for political cowardice and malfeasance
We agree here at least.
Comment by Ron Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 4:12 pm
I absolutely believe we should lower taxes. But that cat can be skinned in other ways (I’m a pet lover, just using a metaphor).We can use marijuana revenue to help lower other taxes, like Pritzker I believe said he wants to do with property taxes. We need to shift the burden more into the wealthier and cut taxes on the less wealthy, since our taxes are regressive.
We can try to negotiate reasonable contracts with government employees. I don’t have Problem One with reasonable concessions. Rauner could have had health insurance savings, but in his zealotry the state doesn’t because he won’t go back to the bargaining table with AFSCME. Clever.By.Half.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 4:39 pm
Biggest proponent of pot legalization here. That’s an easy $500-600,000,000 annually.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 5:17 pm
I like Biss’ chances. JB and Kennedy have universal name ID and have hit their ceilings. Is Biss Bernie? no but Biss has been slowly and surely consolidating the Bernie vote. As he ramps up his downstate and digital advertising even more you will see those undecideds gravitate to him and he will surge past JB. The only thing stopping Biss is a low turnout and all signs are pointing to a high turnout with helps Biss immensely.
Comment by Bottle rocket Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 6:46 pm
== I like Biss’ chances. … As he ramps up his downstate and digital advertising ==
Time & money … and he is running out of both.
Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 7:05 pm
Folks. I am for a progressive income tax. I think it a pipe dream. Taxing retirement income. Same . We got troubles. Biss only talks. Not reality.
Comment by Blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 7:51 pm
== Folks. I am for a progressive income tax. I think it a pipe dream. Taxing retirement income. Same . We got troubles. Biss only talks. Not reality. ==
Okay… but if you want any hope of making these ideas happen, why not vote for candidates who talk about implementing them, even if they seem like a stretch?
Biss does seem like the only Dem who has actually made anything happen in ILGA - Secure Choice, student loan rights, bolstering healthcare all priorities he has sponsored and passed often w/ bipartisan support.
Comment by Downstate terrier Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 9:29 pm
Downstate. If only Biss would stop promising everything under the moon. That’s so old school.
Comment by blue dog dem Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:05 pm
==Is Biss Bernie? no but Biss has been slowly and surely consolidating the Bernie vote.==
According to this poll, Biss is getting 6% of the African-American vote. He needs to do a lot better than that, or else he’ll be sunk for the same reason Bernie was.
Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:38 pm
**Don’t democrats out number republicans in Illinois? Could this be the reason why more dems were sampled in a blue state in a year considered a democrat wave?**
That’s… not how polling works.
Comment by SaulGoodman Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:48 am
Will home insurance cover a new roof?
Comment by Cheryl Persall Monday, Mar 12, 18 @ 7:58 am