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* Pollster Dave Fako is a wise man…
As the 2018 election engages, the political chatter among pundits, analysts, consultants and the array of political professionals across the spectrum are openly talking about a Blue Wave in 2018. This Wave would be significant gains by Democrats, most likely majorities in the U.S. House and possibly Senate, along with significant gains among Governors and the state legislatures.
The degree to which this wave that Democrats may surf to victory, or if it even exists at all, is debated among all involved in the process.
I readily admit that history, recent election results, polling, other data, and anecdotal evidence among my personal networks suggest a good year for Democrats - but it is mostly built on hope that Democratic enthusiasm and dislike (more like disgust) with Trump and the GOP will fuel this wave and their victories.
This is where I want to raise the cautionary flags. The national Democratic political infrastructure has been a failure for a quarter century, with Congressional Democrats going 3w and 10L and the US Senate Democrats only doing marginally better since 1992. This has also trickled down to the state and local levels and has brought Democrats to true minority party status.
The reasons for this failure are varied, many of which are out of any organization’s control. However, poor leadership, a culture that repeated the same mistakes cycle after cycle and didn’t adapt, the lack of inspiring leaders who appealed beyond their core supporters, an over emphasis on micro identity issues, and the lack of a unifying economic, fiscal, values, ethics, character and government reform policy agenda and message contributed to the electoral failures. The constant hoping, or reliance on, the GOP to screw up to help Democrats succeed was a significant part of this failure.
Hope is not a strategy and hoping your opponent is terrible for you to win is an even less effective plan. This reminds me of a message I sent to a Democratic staffer on December 17, 2015 - long before the 2016 general election was engaged:
“As a side note, my anecdotal observations along with polling data I have seen in IL and throughout the country, show a very agitated electorate that directs most of its anger at Democrats and Obama…This is probably not news to you but I am hearing too many Democratic campaign staff, consultants, etc. throughout the country thinking that dislike of the GOP alone will lead them to a win. Although that may help, it should not be exclusively relied on. Outside of hardcore Democrats, very few people I know blame the GOP, or in IL, Rauner, for any problems. They may not like the GOP or Rauner, etc., but they almost always default to blaming Democrats for the actual problems and a lack of a solution. This is particularly true with Independent voters I know and especially women, older voters and white men. Trump reminds me a little of Perot - captures a small but vocal angry share of the electorate. These angry Perot voters caused some problems in 1992 and were part of the angry base that swept Democrats out in 1994, so pay very close attention to data on Trump and his voters, especially if they are typical non-voters who could change the composition of the electorate if they turn out. Hillary is not going to be a motivating Democratic candidate outside a handful of liberal female voters who are already voting Democratic, so she will not counter balance the Trump (angry white voter) wildcard even if she is more popular and winning over whomever is the GOP candidate.”
This may not have been a popular position to take late in 2015, but the polling data and tangential evidence I saw at the time backed it up and it needed to be said.
For Democrats and progressives to take the opportunity that exists in 2018 to build long term and sustained electoral, policy and governing success, Democrats and progressives are advised to put the culture of the failed past behind them.
Run candidates who can cross the political divides and don’t necessarily fit into a defined ideological box, accept diversity in the Party rather than demanding ideological or policy orthodoxy, develop and embrace a unifying economic and governing agenda that simply gets the jobs done and carries a strong character, values and ethics message. Don’t ignore or write off significant segments of the electorate hoping that the new emerging demographics will carry you to victory (this hasn’t worked). Be emboldened to criticize your own party or leaders when they are wrong or cross ethical, character or legal lines. Bottom line, embrace a new culture, character and values approach to policy and electoral politics and new ways to succeed in elections, governing and enacting progressive policies that earn support across the political spectrum.
Discuss.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:10 am
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I don’t think Dave Fako has polled Oswego recently
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:17 am
I might be cynical thinking this, but he points out one email he wrote in 2015, before Trump was anywhere near towards winning the nomination and warning dems. Hindsight is 20-20, I’m sure he has an email sent showing polling data Hillary Clinton defeating Trump.
Now he’s sending a warning in case dems don’t do as well before as another “I told you so moment”
Hindsight is 20-20.
I agree 100 percent hope is not a message and lack of leadership has hurt the dems at local and state level. Especially during the Obama administration.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:21 am
Frankly that last paragraph should apply to both parties, particularly if you regard the GOP as riding the “wave” of white voters without a college degree shifting heavily toward the GOP in recent years.
Comment by cover Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:27 am
Preach.
Nationally the Democrats have to run on something beyond “block Trump”. That might get them the House (and/or Senate) but it might be closer than they assume right now.
As for Illinois, JB is playing it too safe and has been for months. It might be enough to beat Rauner because Rauner has been so ineffective, but then what?
Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:34 am
Agree wholeheartedly.
A big part of the Democrats’ problem has been their arrogance - the unmoving belief that the electorate somehow wants a new and progressive agenda to sweep through the country and carry them to victory. You can’t run David Gill in central Illinois and hope to win. I’m sorry, its just not going to work.
There is room in the party for both centrists and progressives. Say what you will about Mike Madigan, but he understands more than any other Democrat that party diversity = party strength. Candidates have to be reflective of their districts, not of some greater ideology that most voters do not share.
There is certainly a strong progressive movement taking hold in Chicago. The problem for Democrats is that Chicago is not where the battles will be fought this fall. It will be in the suburbs and in several areas of Downstate Illinois.
And similarly, across the Country, the battles won’t be fought in the big cities. They will be fought in small towns and suburbs. I suspect that, unless there is a change in strategy, the Blue Wave will underperform expectations
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:35 am
I agree very much that Democrats should broaden their outreach where necessary, like with Conor Lamb in PA-18.
There have been key successes this year for Democrats that I think are Trump-related, such as Doug Jones in Alabama and Conor Lamb in PA-18. Even Arizona’s race last night was close, in a heavy Trump district.
Even still, I very much agree that relying on anti-Trump sentiment is insufficient. Candidates are in the public business. That means they have to sell themselves and convince people.
Trump governs for his base and ran a campaign that was very targeted toward the GOP base, as well as toward Democrats and others, with his economic messages. That he doesn’t broaden his approach is apparently hurting the GOP, so that’s this article in reverse.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:35 am
===They may not like the GOP or Rauner, etc., but they almost always default to blaming Democrats for the actual problems and a lack of a solution. This is particularly true with Independent voters I know and especially women===
This idea is not stated enough. Independent suburban women I talk to can’t stand Trump, voted for Hillary, but they don’t view Rauner as the causer of our current problems, or the person preventing the state from moving forward or getting a budget. Madigan is brought up more frequently, and angrily, when discussing state issues. Most often I hear our situation being framed as a fight between Rauner and Madigan, but Rauner is rarely blamed exclusively.
Comment by People Over Parties Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:38 am
He is a wise man. While AZ election was closer than any GOP would like yesterday; these results are beginning to trend back into the GOP direction. In November, there will be 435 elections in Congress, not one. Every resource is spread by then. Negative energy needs some fuel and the economy is improving rapidly for almost everyone. Foreign policy is trending positive. World Leaders are regarding the President more positively. And the tired investigation is losing any real steam and the GOP is getting some energy from what they do believe has been a baseless witch hunt. Things are trending better for the GOP with 6 months before an election. Things change fast. But watch the trends.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:38 am
I feel like the national DNC could learn a lot from Illinois Democrats on how to run campaigns. you can bash the speaker all you want, but you have to admit he knows how to win.
Though I will admit it’s easy to bash the DNC and national campaigns, but not every state has the advantages Illinois Democrats have when it comes to winning, like the massive voting bloc of Chicago.
I also think the DNC is having difficulty if it wants to fire up groups like progressives or trying to win over moderates & independents. The RNC has made up there mind on who they want to win over.
Comment by ItsMillerTime Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:39 am
“put the culture of the failed past behind them” …but then his advice is to embrace third-way clintonism, the culture of the failed past.
Comment by Homer J. Quinn Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:40 am
Some additional evidence…even in California, the GOP has woken up and started getting a little bit of traction fighting back.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:41 am
When Mr. Fako wrote his message in December 2015, Bernie Sanders’ campaign was gaining steam. Here are some of the headlines from that month:
Bernie Sanders wins the day
–Bernie Sanders, Your Cool Socialist Grandpa
–Sanders says he’s courting Trump supporters
–There’s No Empirical Evidence That Bernie Sanders Is Unelectable
–Bernie Sanders Has a Plan to Take on the Fossil Fuel Industry
How did the DNC and the Clinton campaign respond? Did they take this message–that liberal populism is a strong message to take to the voters–and build on it? No.
Here are Clinton headlines from the same month (leaving out the ones about emails and other media garbage):
–Hillary Clinton Calls for More Surveillance to Fight Terror
–Clinton promises to investigate UFOs
–Hillary Clinton’s Modest Infrastructure Proposal
What did Sanders do right? No more war. Job jobs jobs. College costs too much. Washington isn’t listening BUT good government is crucial.
I agree with Mr. Fako wholeheartedly. The Democratic Party of Clinton, Emanuel, and Madigan is broken and they don’t have the insight or will to fix it. The wave may break in November, but they’ll lose again in 2020 if they don’t start speaking to us.
Comment by Lefty Lefty Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:43 am
Fako speaks truth in a lot of areas, but especially our party’s colossal failures in entire regions of Illinois (downstate) and throughout the heartland. We have the old base v persuasion. Living downstate, the battle is persuasion - not generating or building base crowds. Downstate has enormous economic challenges. Take a look at the latest on the demise of SIU-C for example. Democrats running around talking about base and identify politics are a million miles away from real economic concerns of millions. Fake stirred a discussion. Not sure DC consultants for Democrats get it which is one reason Democrats are in the worst position since somewhere around the 1940s in terms of legislative and congressional seats.
Comment by West Wing Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:54 am
Very good article.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:56 am
“Lucky Pierre”,
You worry for Oswego, IL… and our Motto…
“Nothing is decided in Illinois until Oswego has her say”
We elected Tom Cross for how many years? We’re a mixed bag, our hamlet. I have other fish to fry today… outside your drivel.
To the Post…
Couple takeaways, after reading this fine work, and I respect Fako a great deal…
===This reminds me of a message I sent to a Democratic staffer on December 17, 2015===
This was the first year without a signed budget. It was the time of “I’m frustrated too, but taking steps to reform Illinois is more important than a short term budget stalemate”
This was also before a whole General Assrmbly was seated and adjourned Sine Die, without ever getting a budget signed, overridden, or implemented.
If you think on Rauner winning seats in November, 2016, that seemed like a pretty smart gamble.
*Enter Susanna Mendoza*
While in the districts, where Dems had a mathematical “super majority”, inroads happened in the micro, Rauner hit seats. Again, this is great news.
I said from jump street, Mendoza-Munger, it was never even close, the most important race in Illinois. Not Kirk, not the statehouse races, it was Mendoza-Munger.
My point? Rauner having never signed a budget, touting vetoes, but vetoes hurting higher education, social services, even his K-12 signing was flawed… the blue wave, traffic may happen, is built upon a premise, for me, that Trump lost Illinois by 16, and polled well within that window of a 16 points loss in Illinois, throughout. Is Trump any more popular today? Is Rauner any more popular than Trump?
Traditional Democratic constituencies are starting to grasp that Rauner is a failed governor, while in December 2015 it was still not that clear how Rauner, in 2 more years, could capitalize on the Dems taking the blame.
Also in December 2015, Pritzker’s field offices and engagement in central, western, and southern Illinois was not even on a radar of reality. The ground game Pritzker showed allowed a balanced statewide win in all that means in geography and field operations. It’s the “margins in the middle” that allow a ground game to shine, picking off 2-3 points here, 3-4 points there.
If anything that’s encouraging for Pritzker and Dems, it’s that the “Bruce Rauner failed” theme… it can be embraced by policy wonks, political organizations, and all of labor, trades and public sector, “both sides of that house”
The positive theme needed? Aw, that’s on “others”, smarter than me… plus, it’s almost May… enough time to rally a positive message to… “saving Illinois, together”…
…
… or something.
Someone will figure it out, but riding the wave, pretty good conditions, can you get the right surfboard(?)
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 9:59 am
===I talk to===
Your personal anecdotes are not data.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:00 am
– like the massive voting bloc of Chicago.–
If by voting blocs you mean the general categories of City, Suburbs and Downstate, Chicago is the smallest of the three.
And the city itself is quite a stew across demographics — as are, increasingly, the inner suburbs, which has shared interests with Chicago.
If the GOP’s chosen brand wasn’t overt hostility to the city, and if they made any effort at all, they could knock down those recent Dem margins.
Big Jim/Edgar certainly did.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:02 am
There are some exciting things happening in politics right now that could pay big dividends for Democrats later, such as women’s marches and more women running for political office, the young gun control activists and the striking teachers in red states. I feel and share the excitement and enthusiasm.
A poll came just came out showing Pritzker leading Rauner by 18 points. Rauner’s attacks appear to be failing. Pritzker not vigorously defending himself against Rauner’s attacks doesn’t seem to be hurting. Pritzker has been brushing the attacks off as coming from a failed governor. Things might change, but if they don’t, that’s terrible news for Rauner.
Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:04 am
I wanted this as a stand-alone…
To this,
===Run candidates who can cross the political divides and don’t necessarily fit into a defined ideological box, accept diversity… earn support across the political spectrum.===
That whole paragraph, what I’ve hoped “my party” would be well before the Slytherin SSM debacle, trying to oust Pat Brady, 4-62 in GOP GA votes for SSM… and the purity of party ruining the old ILGOP.
We let a stranger in our House. Bruce Rauner.
Instead of diversity of thought… you get whole Caucuses that vote so lopsidedly against SSM, HB40, a phony “sanctuary state” meme of legislation… but Diana Rauner gets the uber-left, costal, limousine liberal legislation signed… as Bruce as no social agenda.
Raunerism is as awful as purity of party exclusion.
The ILGOP let a stranger in our house, as purity and vanity gave us… Raunerism… and that paragraph should be who we are.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:06 am
–over emphasis on micro identity issues–
Those uppity minorities – blacks, Hispanics, Asians, LGBT, women etc. – seeking an equal place at the able in 21st Century America.
Those “micro identities” are the D voters who pushed Doug Jones into the US Senate and a near takeover of the Democratic VA House.
Trump Democrats are not the future of the Democratic Party.
Comment by King Louis XVI Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:10 am
What would Kanye West do?
Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:13 am
==Things are trending better for the GOP ==
If that makes you feel better you keep believing that. I don’t see nearly enough evidence of that but you go with the best spin for your party.
Thate being said, I think the Democrats would be out of their gourd to think they’ve got anything wrapped up. Six months is a long way away and the independent electorate seems to be unsettled when it comes to any particular trend.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:18 am
Generic ballot has been narrowing going from 8 to 4% nationally.
A lot of time and a lot of money will be spent between now and November to link JB and Mike Madigan- who more people blame for the problems than Rauner
If voters hate Madigan why will they love his candidate for Governor?
Don’t count your chickens, they aren’t even eggs yet
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/16/17242220/poll-democrats-midterm-elections-2018-congressional-ballot
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:20 am
=== I agree with Mr. Fako wholeheartedly. The Democratic Party of Clinton, Emanuel, and Madigan is broken and they don’t have the insight or will to fix it. The wave may break in November, but they’ll lose again in 2020 if they don’t start speaking to us. ===
I don’t think that was what Fako was saying.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:20 am
=== I think the Democrats would be out of their gourd to think they’ve got anything wrapped up===
I had dinner with an experienced one last night who proclaimed just that. Dangerous for them, but whatevs.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:21 am
All Capitol Fax posters: Thank you for the comments. One point of emphasis, as stated in the early part of our article: this assessment was primarily directed at the national political environment and comparing / context looking back to 2016, knowing that impacts the state level, and references to IL specific topics are more for context and comparison. I could write a dissertation on IL and Rauner (nothing really good for Rauner), but that is an entirely different discussion. Thank you. –DF
Comment by Dave Fako Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:25 am
Demo, a trend, however slight and slow, is still a trend. I don’t doubt for a second that the Dem base has energy…now. I’ve always viewed that party as more emotionally driven (not a criticism!) That relies on a lot of sustained energy. Maybe they’ll have it. But, they’re still not enough and their influence is very concentrated in places. They run up big numbers in some places. In close races, I believe, were it not for GOP incompetency, we would have won many, and won some in spite of ourselves. The GOP has turned a wobbly corner on the trends in these “specials”. It’s not where it needs to be, but it’s puttering in the right direction.
And, no, it doesn’t make me feel a lot better. Only a little.
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:29 am
(Sigh)
===Generic ballot has been narrowing going from 8 to 4% nationally.===
In 2016, the national trends, versus what happened here were not in sync.
Clinton was leading Illinois in the window of 12-18 points, winning Illinois by 16. Former Rep. Schneider became Rep. Schneider once more. If anything, that wacky 10th, “independent” as it is, mirrors waves enough that 2-3 points either way decide it, not historic waves allowing the seat to finally change hands.
8, 4,… just last night? A 15 point swing in a district carried by the GOP nationals by 20+ points, Romney and Trump. That’s 1-5, not 1 or 5, its 15.
===A lot of time and a lot of money will be spent between now and November to link JB and Mike Madigan- who more people blame for the problems than Rauner===
Pritzker can match dollar for dollar… and Pritzker is already underwater…
Already. Underwater.
… and Rauner is down double-digits in polling, with no constituency to build upon.
Hmm.
Ever seen a sled ride a wave? Tough sledding for a failed governor trying to surf.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 10:38 am
I spoke to the Democratic candidate in my (currently and usually Republican) state senate district. They were talking about healthcare with an emphasis on continuing to protect preexisting conditions, inefficiencies in how state government is run and constituent services. It was a better message than I’ve heard in the past.
I agree with the article–nationwide, the Democratic Party fails to make the argument that their positions will improve economic opportunities for all people. Sometimes I perceive that as them thinking the strength of their positions is so obvious that they don’t need to make the argument. To me, the greatest measure of their failure is that they failed to make a positive argument for the ACA even though many people responded very positively to individual items in the act.
In terms of Illinois, Pritzker can certainly make the case for Rauner’s failure to be an effective governor, but Rauner can make a strong negative case against Pritzker as well. Circumstances favor Pritzker, but he’ll need more than “Because Rauner.”
Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 11:02 am
this a tough balancing act. I feel that some believe that his message means run GOP like candidates. That is what I believe the DLC did for years. “ if we run gop like candidates they vote for us”. I think his warning should make Dems realize they need to stand for something, maybe what they used to stand for, hard working men and women.
Has anyone looked at voter TO is it a dem wave or is it a gop flatline. 2017 capital township in Sangamon County elected a democrat to the township board but dem vote didn’t increase gop vote decreased, 2018 primary in Sangamon County saw a dramatic decrease in GOP Ballots and yes a dem increase in an off year but there was a vibrant primary that could have explained that increase.
Comment by Publius Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 11:25 am
“”I could write a dissertation on IL and Rauner (nothing really good for Rauner), but that is an entirely different discussion. Thank you. –DF”"
Indeed he could. Let me add that the dynamics in the competitive legislative races are different again, from either Rauner v Pritzker, or the national scene.
One factor is that the years of highly-funded Madigan bashing have finally taken hold, and could move more votes in legislative races, IMO.
For Governor Rauner to play the victim to Speaker Madigan, makes Rauner look weak in that role. For a local Republican legislative candidate to blame Madigan, makes more sense; Madigan and his “allies” can be the primary problem.
Comment by walker Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 11:33 am
The Republicans, never a really big party, are now about 20% of the voters. Democrats have shrunk to about 30%. Independent voters are the largest segment of voters, about 47%. What this means is that when independents gain three more percentage points, they will outnumber political party members. So let’s go back where it all began. For the first twenty years of American government, there were no organized political parties. All voters were independent voters, all candidates were independent candidates. Political parties were unpopular. The first two President spoke out against the formation and support of political parties. In 1800 a political party took over the government of the United States. Independent voters decreased in numbers through a Civil War, two World Wars, etc., and were a single digit percentage during the Presidency of John F. Kennedy, after which they began to increase in numbers to their present percentage of voters. The two-party system has already lost this battle. There is no way for them to stop independent voter registration. They are like Assad in Syria, still in power, but not going to remain there forever. They are too incompetent at government to keep the support of the American people.
Comment by Robert B. Winn Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 11:40 am
I agree that is very important for political parties to stand for principles, but those who keep saying that doesn’t work I believe that the eight year attacks by the national Republicans on The “ muslim Kenyan “ work pretty well for the current president in the White House and help turn Congress over to the Republicans. In the case of our present (not in charge)governor, there is plenty to run against him without having to take a negative tact. Just pointing out the obvious damage that his policies or lack of policies has done to our state . If only the average citizen will take the time to study the situation instead of swallowing Rauner’s “because Madigan” angle
Comment by Roadypig Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 12:43 pm
I’m deeply concerned that the Dems will go too far to the left on the economic, defense and crime agendas. people want something more in the middle on those things. the Dems are actually better at running government, but they often scare people into thinking they are fiscally irresponsible.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 1:16 pm
Democrats used to control the House without fail for the first 28 years of my life. Since then, they have lost the majority in the House more than 83% of the time. The change that has cost them the House is their addiction to corporate money. It keeps them from having a strong economic message and that keeps them in the minority. We need more candidates to take the no corporate PAC $$$ pledge if we hope to retain the house more than a cycle or two. We also need Medicare for All, less Defense spending, and more help for paying for college.
Comment by Blue Dogs are Blind, Deaf & Dumb Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 1:19 pm
I really wish both parties would become more moderate. There’s a strong push on the left now to become more “progressive”, support Bernie-esque policies and other stuff like that. This strategy is why the Democrats became a coastal minority party after 2016 (this year does seem like it’s a strong blue year, though.) There are four Democrats in red states who are up for reelection this year, and I think there’s a good chance all four could be defeated.
The far-right GOP candidates have crashed and burned now, and I think that’s what might happen to the far-lefters sooner or later.
Comment by Ross Brown Wednesday, Apr 25, 18 @ 8:50 pm