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* From the Rauner campaign…
Democrats Refuse to Give Revenue Estimate for Budget Negotiations
When Illinois families sit down to hammer out their budgets, the conversation starts with a simple question: “how much money is coming in?”
It is the starting point for any discussion of how to allocate their money.
Since his budget address in February, Governor Rauner has asked time and again for the General Assembly to provide a revenue estimate as a basis to negotiate, but Democrats have failed to produce one. It’s time to be honest with taxpayers about how much of their money is expected to flow into state coffers to pass a balanced budget.
Um, they could also just use the governor’s own revenue estimate if they want to base the negotiations on something. From the Civic Federation’s new report…
Going into FY2019, revenue forecasts by the executive and legislative branches are $99 million apart—less than 0.3% of expected revenues and among the closest they have been in recent years. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) forecasts General Funds revenue of $37.96 billion in FY2019, while the legislature’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) forecasts $37.87 billion. The relatively small differences between the two estimates are offsetting. COGFA estimates $164 million less individual income tax revenue than GOMB and $76 million less sales tax revenue, but $77 more in corporate income tax.
* WCIA TV…
“I believe that Democrats are strongly in favor of actually finally getting a real budget done before the May 31st deadline,” Pritzker said. “It seems clear to me that the governor is not, but we will see over the next couple of weeks whether he is willing to actually work with them to get the job done.”
Pritzker would not comment on the necessity of a revenue estimate, which Republican leaders have insisted is a crucial starting point to any budget negotiation, required by state law. […]
Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) chimed in too, calling the morning meeting an “important step” toward closing the gap that divides the two parties.
“I think we’ve all agreed that the CoGFA numbers are a realm to begin with,” Brady said, referring to bipartisan analysis from the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability. “We’d like for [Democrats] to solidify that,” but said there was “nothing we can do” about “their reluctance to do so.”
Brady has the right attitude here.
* Tribune…
Still, lawmakers likely are facing a budget gap of several billion dollars. The legislature’s forecasting arm predicts the state will have roughly $37.8 billion to spend this year, down $2.7 billion from the $40.6 billion it has currently. That’s because several one-time revenue sources can no longer be relied upon.
Yeah, but that’s still up from the $31 billion or so the state took in last fiscal year.
* Related…
* Rep. Keith Wheeler: How Speaker Madigan elbows aside Illinois taxpayers
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 10:49 am
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Previous Post: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - A bit of good budget news for a change
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““I think we’ve all agreed that the CoGFA numbers are a realm to begin with,” Brady said,”
Leader Durkin said the same thing last week — let’s use CoGFA’s revenue forecast and move on. Is the Governor supporting using his own GoMB number, or is he also supporting CoGFA’s?
Comment by walker Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:50 am
As RNUG said yesterday, this is Rauner teeing up his veto of the FY 2019 budget.
Comment by Nick Name Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:55 am
Again with more perfidious emphasis
I’m beginning to wonder if this process was different under Tim Nuding?
Comment by Honeybear Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 11:58 am
Yep. Revenue estimate is this season’s TA. Just adopt a damn budget. Failure, or a veto, wont help pick up seats for repubs.
Comment by Langhorne Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:00 pm
So Rauner is going to gum up the works on what amounts to a rounding error on an estimate? Sounds like him.
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:16 pm
At least “Turnaround Agenda” made for good hashtags. “Revenue estimate” is so wonky and boring that no one will care.
Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:32 pm
Why doesn’t Madigan simply (and publicly) offer to use an average of the GOMB and COGFA numbers?
Comment by Robert the Bruce Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:38 pm
Robert the Bruce, you’re missing the point. Madigan doesn’t want a number. He has too many “tax-eating” interests he must keep happy and a moving target allows him to do that.
Comment by Just Me Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:42 pm
Good God. Why can’t Rauners BTIA just figure it out for themselves. We pay them an exorbitant amount of money to do nothing?
Comment by Generic Drone Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 12:53 pm
Rauner could set the tone and say his own budget is based on “x” revenue based on “y”
Then again, that would mean Rauner would, himself, be accepting that pesky 32% Madigan Tax… to balance.
Can’t have that, lol.
Never seen such a governor so afraid to be… governor.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 1:00 pm
Bruce rides motorcycles with a group out of Canaryville. He knows the pains of people.
Comment by Anon35 Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 1:01 pm
(25 ILCS 155/4) (from Ch. 63, par. 344)
Sec. 4. (a) The Commission shall publish, at the convening of each regular session of the General Assembly, a report on the estimated income of the State from all applicable revenue sources for the next ensuing fiscal year and of any other funds estimated to be available for such fiscal year. The Commission, in its discretion, may consult with the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget in preparing the report. On the third Wednesday in March after the session convenes, the Commission shall issue a revised and updated set of revenue figures reflecting the latest available information. The House and Senate by joint resolution shall adopt or modify such estimates as may be appropriate. The joint resolution shall constitute the General Assembly’s estimate, under paragraph (b) of Section 2 of Article VIII of the Constitution, of the funds estimated to be available during the next fiscal year.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 1:01 pm
==they could also just use the governor’s own revenue estimate==
If the Governor is serious, he can just put out his GoMB revenue number now and promise to use his line-item veto to balance whatever spending bill(s) make it to his desk. He doesn’t need anything else from the GA.
Of course, that would require him to make an actually decision and take responsibility for it.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 1:53 pm
Why argue about what’s in the documents on the table when you can argue about what color the table should be?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 2:14 pm
GUESS RAISING TAX RATES 66 percent Wasn’t sufficient
Comment by Sue Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 4:26 pm
Dear Illinois General Assembly,
Follow the damn law.
Sincerely,
Illinois Residents
Comment by Flat Bed Ford Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 4:44 pm
I find this whole discussion bizarre. They can come to some sort of an informal agreement among themselves as to revenues that will be availalbe and can negotiate a budget based on those parameters. They can do the “formal” adoption at any time and, in fact, I’d recommend that not do that until they are ready with the budget and adopt everything as a package.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 4:49 pm
Sue, sad but true. I bet they’re just waiting to raise taxes another 66%. Isn’t that what we would need for a pritzker Utopia?
Comment by Ron Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 4:55 pm
Ron and Sue, get a room under the bridge.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 5:11 pm
Close as they are, use the Governors numbers. Pass it and move forward.
Comment by Last Bull Moose c Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 5:20 pm
Point of information re history of revenue estimates and possible later updates:
In spring, 2014, the most recent time lawmakers acted on the issue, the98th General Assembly adopted two revenue estimates:
HJR80, approved 3/6/14, estimated general funds available during FY2015 at $34,495 million in total federal and state sources.
HJR100, approved 5/30/14, estimated general funds available during FY2015 at $35,352 million in total federal and state sources.
The $857 million increase reflected a $197 million increase in personal income taxes, a $10 million increase in public utility taxes, and a $650 million increase in other transfers (money borrowed from other funds.)
Source– http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/default.asp?GA=98
Charlie Wheeler
Comment by Charlie Wheeler Wednesday, May 9, 18 @ 6:53 pm
Arthur, should illinois citizens have the highest state and local tax burden in the nation?
Comment by Ron Thursday, May 10, 18 @ 8:08 am