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Suddenly, the mayor’s race looks very different

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* Fran Spielman and Lauren FitzPatrick

Days before the boom dropped on a sexual abuse scandal in Chicago Public Schools, Mayor Rahm Emanuel was unveiling a $175 million plan to provide universal preschool for the city’s 4-year-olds.

His homegrown schools CEO Janice Jackson was touting CPS’ progress in commercials bankrolled by a nonprofit with close ties to the mayor.

But now, Emanuel’s plan to seek a third term using education as a major cornerstone has been blown out of the water by a scandal that hits home like none before it.

This time, children have been directly victimized. And the adults in charge — including the mayor of Chicago — should have protected them. They didn’t.

Like the Burge police torture cases and rampant priest sex abuse in the Catholic Church, the latest CPS scandal also threatens to trigger multi-million dollar lawsuits for years to come against a district that is just now emerging from threats of bankruptcy following a $450 million cash infusion from the state. It could also lead frightened parents to yank their kids out of CPS, exacerbating the enrollment decline.

Absolutely brutal. But spot-on.

* Tribune editorial

Until the end of May, anyone handicapping the 2019 Chicago mayoral election might have predicted that gun violence and police accountability would be the top issues. Then the Chicago Tribune began publishing the multipart “Betrayed” series, a bombshell expose about the many failures of Chicago Public Schools to protect students from predators.

Now it appears the race for mayor will turn in part on the CPS scandal. What went wrong in the administration of the schools to leave kids vulnerable to sexual abuse and violence? What must be done differently and better to keep them safe? Part of the discussion and debate, obviously, will involve where to place blame. […]

Now some more about the notion of blame: CPS is a stand-alone government, but it’s hardly independent. The mayor appoints the schools chief and the school board. That makes Rahm Emanuel answerable for this scandal. Reacting to “Betrayed,” the mayor apologized and said he and Jackson take responsibility.

Emanuel would like to shift the focus to fixing the problems, but there are a handful of Chicagoans who want to publicly pin this disaster on him — the ones running against him for mayor. Lori Lightfoot blamed Emanuel’s “incompetent leadership.” Paul Vallas focused on Emanuel’s “reactive and micromanaging style.” His opponents will continue to hammer the mayor and, we hope, offer their solutions. It’s on Emanuel to lead the city’s response to fixing CPS while responding to the criticisms.

* Related…

* Has CPS finally defused its pension time bomb?: But let’s say I’m wrong and all of these assumptions work out. Even if the projections on that chart are right, the fiscal condition of the CPS pension fund will remain weak for decades. In fact, according to the latest actuarial reports, the retirement kitty will hover at around the 50 percent funded level for several more years until beginning to turn up in 2023. It won’t hit the pre-recession level of 67 percent until 2046, and it’s not due to reach the optimal 90 percent level until 2059.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:00 am

Comments

  1. People who don’t live in Chicago might not fully understand how hated the mayor is, even before this. Liberals despise him. Republicans, especially pro-police Republicans, despise him equally as much. When those two groups unite, it’s gonna be rough going. His only constituency is business groups.

    Comment by PJ Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:02 am

  2. ===When those two groups unite===

    Behind whom?

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:05 am

  3. All these troubles plaguing such a nice guy. Actually as they say Karma is a B.

    Comment by Sue Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:08 am

  4. The Trib expose is great journalism. The S-T followup putting it into context with all the other CPS scandals on Emanuel’s watch is absolutely devastating.

    How can anyone vote for this glorified spin doctor? His malignant indifference to Chicago school kids is right there for all to see, and is disqualifying.

    Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:15 am

  5. To Rich’s point, while Rahm is very vulnerable, who has the ability to capitalize on that vulnerability? Maybe Lightfoot? Not Vallas or McCarthy. Perhaps someone else that can pull together the money and support to be a real challenge will jump in now that this scandal is out there.

    Comment by Montrose Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:17 am

  6. ==Behind whom?==

    His run-off challenger. I know a few police around here who voted for Chuy Garcia because they hated Rahm so much. I truly believe that if a real challenger can get him to a run-off, he’s going to have a hell of a time surviving. The black community is gone. The Latino community is gone. Liberal activists are gone. Republicans are gone. He’s a street fighter and it’ll be close, but I don’t know if his money will be enough this time.

    Comment by PJ Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:18 am

  7. Hold harmless applies to school funding, not mayors.

    Comment by City Zen Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:23 am

  8. To Rich’s point- who has a real shot at beating Emmanuel? No one that followed Dailey and the financial time bombs he left was going to look good. I am surprised Emmanuel has lasted this long, but his money machine has been pretty strong.

    Failing to protect students is an issue that could bring Emmanuel and many other down with him.

    Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:25 am

  9. If the challengers stick to a peace treaty among themselves and focus their ire at Rahm, he will be forced into a runoff. At that point, it will be necessary for the challenger to form some sort of coalition among the CTU/lakefront liberals/Hispanics/Blacks/CPD-Republicans to get enough votes to win the general. It can be done. There’s enough dents in Rahm’s machine to pull it off.

    Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:27 am

  10. Does anyone see a common thread between Madigan’s and Rahm’s culture problems and the responses to the undeniable facts? Unsafe to speak up, ineffective/dismissive response when good agents do speak up, abuses allowed to continue…

    Individuals at every level need to do some soul-searching.

    What else is lurking out there? We definitely are living in interesting times.

    Comment by anon on this Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:28 am

  11. The horrible sex abuse scandal rocking CPS might be just the opening Rahm needs to get behind an elected school board.

    I mean, the guy does all of the dirty work to close schools and privatize as much as possible to make the budget work. He gets the pensions on a path to solvency. He’s raised the taxes to do it and just when test scores, college access and graduation rates are beginning to bear fruit: boom.

    Maybe after all that hard work that’s just been overwhelmed by the latest scandal will be enough for him to see the wisdom in washing his hands of it. Let someone else have some of the fun. Put the future of the city in the hands of a union-dominated elected school board. How could that be worse than what Rahm’s got now?

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:29 am

  12. Part of the peace treaty between the challengers should be to help get signatures for Pat Quinn’s referendum.

    Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:30 am

  13. ===stick to a peace treaty among themselves and focus their ire at Rahm===

    Worked really well for Kennedy and Biss.

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:32 am

  14. After all of this you really have to wonder why the Mayor is so hell-bent on micromanaging CPS, when he gets tied with all of their negativity? An elected school board would cause headaches and the CTU would likely take over…but all of this would become their problem. He would be able to accept the wins as “city-wide successes” and be detached from the scandals.

    Chicago is weird….

    Comment by NIU Grad Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:34 am

  15. Rahm’s got money. You can’t be something with nothing. Chicago doesn’t demand much of its’ Mayors. Many people paying property taxes don’t have kids in the government schools so they really don’t care what happens there. Chicago is a very tax tolerant place. The odds of Rahm winning are 70% today.

    Comment by Steve Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:35 am

  16. Fax Machine is on target. Taking Rahm off the ballot is the best way to beat him.

    Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:37 am

  17. More proof that Democrats like Rham and Madigan only care about winning elections and not governing. Scandals, MeToo, inaction on crime/murder all go unnoticed by those two.

    Comment by Flat Bed Ford Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:39 am

  18. =Republicans, especially pro-police Republicans, despise him=

    With the exception of the far northwest and far southwest sides of the City, Republicans have next to zero impact on the Mayor’s race.

    Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:42 am

  19. A neoliberal who actively works to destroy public education? Tell me something I don’t know.

    Comment by Stark Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:43 am

  20. Stark, you’re on the right track, but he really isn’t even a true neoliberal (which is more of economic philosophy)

    If he was classical liberal it would be a whole new ballgame.

    What exactly is the political philosophy of someone like Rahm? The DPI?

    Comment by cdog Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:51 am

  21. Agree with Word.
    Great reporting.
    If you want to hear a negative view and prediction on Rham, ride in a cab and ask the driver.
    Cab drivers are awful on Stock Picks, but excellent on politics.
    They all- -I mean ALL— dislike Rham and think he can easily
    be beat.
    He has been an awful Mayor. Who can beat him? Anybody.

    Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:53 am

  22. =ride in a cab and ask the driver=

    What’s a cab?

    Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:57 am

  23. Union guy.
    I always take a cab when I can.

    Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 10:59 am

  24. He’s not running.

    Comment by DaleyMail Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:00 am

  25. Rahm has never been personally popular, but he’s been elected twice because a majority of Chicagoans see him as a tough, hands-on administrator and competent political tactician. Yeah, he’s a jerk — or so the logic goes — but that job needs a jerk.

    That logic is now being challenged. A couple of mishaps is one thing, but the succession CPS of administrative screw-ups undercuts Rahm’s reputation at it’s core — and a sex abuse scandal really grabs the public’s attention the way a procurement scam doesn’t. His re-election is much more in doubt than it was a week ago.

    Comment by BC Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:01 am

  26. –With the exception of the far northwest and far southwest sides of the City, Republicans have next to zero impact on the Mayor’s race.–

    Pretty big exceptions there.

    Fun with numbers, from the Chicago Board of Elections:

    In the 2016 presidential, Trump got 135,317 votes in Chicago, 12.4% of 1.1 million cast.

    In the 2015 mayoral runoff, 590,733 votes were cast: Emanuel, 332,171; Garcia, 258,562.

    Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:01 am

  27. Advocating putting vulnerable little four year olds in the system as it exists seems like a really bad idea.

    I’d like to hear much more from the teachers union and individual teachers and counselors who *must* also have been aware of some of this abuse and neglect which was detailed the Trib and Sun-Times stories.

    Comment by Responsa Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:04 am

  28. Not being critical of you Uber folks. Daughter put the
    App on my phone.
    Grandfathers were union coal miners and Mom was in the Teamsters. Try to go union when I can, but understand folks liking Uber, Lift etc.

    Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:06 am

  29. =just when test scores, college access and graduation rates are beginning to bear fruit: boom.=

    Or is it all smoke and mirrors?
    Independent analysis required here - it’s too easy to manipulate test scores, graduation rates, and college access. I’m extremely skeptical of these numbers.
    If you close down 50 schools and the least motivated, lowest scoring kids end up dropping out - bingo…graduation rates go up. They’ve manipulated the test scores in the past, also.

    Comment by TinyDancer(FKSue) Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:20 am

  30. ===Independent analysis required here===

    Spend some time at the University of Chicago Consortium on School Research. They provide both independence and excellent analysis. And as you might imagine, it’s a mixed bag. On one hand, it found that the closure of 50 schools was bad for students. On the other hand, the overall trend for CPS is positive in terms of academic progress.

    The school closures get the headlines, but the fact is, that decision was made for financial reasons, not academic reasons. As with almost every major decision at CPS, there is a big trade off between financial outcomes and academic outcomes. The key is finding a balance and it’s never easy.

    Running CPS is probably the toughest job in Chicago. And maybe the most important. I wouldn’t give Rahm Emanuel an A for his efforts, but neither would I give him an F. I think C+ is about right, but I’ll stop now so some CTU fans can tell me why I’m wrong.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:36 am

  31. Seems like the Chicago landscape is full of progressive groups, all seeking fame and fortune but not united and effective at winning elections. The number of candidates running for mayor is exhibit A.

    Comment by West Wing Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:41 am

  32. ===Seems like the Chicago landscape is full of progressive groups, all seeking fame and fortune but not united and effective at winning elections. ===

    That also describes the national Democratic party.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:51 am

  33. Wordslinger, I will concede the first point, about my comment being off target. 12.4% of the vote could have an impact on the outcome of the race.

    But I think the runoff numbers vote totals are roughly half of the Presidential year turnout. And the impressive Chuy vote has a lot to do with Rahm’s unpopularity than anything else.

    Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:52 am

  34. Lightfoot got my attention when I heard Alyx Pattison was on her campaign. That’s how you gotta topple Rahm, if you can - attract a lot of bright hardworking types who could be good public servants in their own right, but for whom for whatever reasons the cards have not cut right. We’ll see how the rest of the field plays out but for now honestly Lightfoot is the only one I could envision voting for instead of Rahm. It’s just a very weak field - so far.

    Comment by ZC Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 11:52 am

  35. Hard to support the international criminal rings taking advantage of cab drivers….

    Comment by Ok Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:04 pm

  36. Hoped for more from Lightfoot, but she has no money, no staff, no progressive chops, no personality. She’s not running on much and might be *almost* as out of touch with all of Chicago as MRE. Her campaign has been quiet and unimpressive so far. Anyone else out there ready to save us from this mess?

    Comment by Begging for change Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:13 pm

  37. =On one hand, it found that the closure of 50 schools was bad for students. On the other hand, the overall trend for CPS is positive in terms of academic progress.=

    I’ve seen the study.
    The U of C analysis shows that the trend was positive for those who remained in the system. It does’t examine whether the numbers were manipulated.
    There are three kinds of lies:
    Lies, (banned word?) lies, and statistics.

    Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:14 pm

  38. ===Her campaign has been quiet and unimpressive so far===

    Oh, please. Now is the time to be quiet. Go raise money. Put your team together. Fashion a strategy. Nine months to go. Plenty of time to be loud.

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:20 pm

  39. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-graduation-rate-cps-0904-20170831-story.html

    The glass can be seen as half full or half empty. I prefer to see it as half full because the trend has been toward improvement.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:25 pm

  40. “Nobody knows that having an elected school board is going to lead to higher outcomes for our students. So in a district like Chicago, with a large population of minority students and low-income students, why would we threaten that when we’re on the right trajectory?” (then Chief Education Officer) Janice Jackson said. (https://capitolfax.com/2017/03/16/cps-testifies-against-elected-school-board/)

    Comment by Kyle Hillman Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:38 pm

  41. …universal preschool for the city’s 4-year-olds.

    I think he needs to work on universal school for the 5-18 year olds first.

    Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:47 pm

  42. Rahm has sold himself up til now as an effective manager. But between the police, CPS, rampant crime and never ending tax increases that ship has sailed. Now he wants everyone to view him as a progressive giving away free services and aligning with blacks and Latinos. Truth be told he has failed in improving the quality of life for most of his constituents. Time he is voted out.

    Comment by Sue Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 12:56 pm

  43. **Hoped for more from Lightfoot, but she has no money, no staff, no progressive chops, no personality. … Her campaign has been quiet and unimpressive so far. **

    She raised about $300k in her first week. She’s got top notch staff and consultants. She definitely has progressive chops.

    I truly don’t know what Lightfoot you’re talking about.

    Comment by SaulGoodman Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:10 pm

  44. Run-off? Probably yes. Losing in run-off? No. Not against one of these candidates.

    Comment by Noah Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:26 pm

  45. On the Lightfoot comment - Of all the contenders, Chicago media picked up her criticism of Rahm after this scandal came out and led with it. I don’t know what they’re doing, but she has a team that is making some early magic happen.

    Comment by NIU Grad Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:31 pm

  46. =The glass can be seen as half full or half empty. I prefer to see it as half full because the trend has been toward improvement.=

    Your facts come from an opinion piece?
    You can prefer to see what ever you want.
    Eventually, reality intrudes.
    I prefer to live in the real world.

    Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:33 pm

  47. There is blood in the water for sure. I believe this is the knockout punch for Rahm. He will not run. It is jyst an opinion but i believe he knows when to throw in the towel.

    Comment by Regular democrat Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:33 pm

  48. ===Not against one of these candidates===

    I could see it.

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:35 pm

  49. ==She raised about $300k in her first week.==

    The legal community is certainly a big fan.

    Comment by City Zen Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:39 pm

  50. ===Your facts come from an opinion piece?===

    You’re pretty thick, aren’t you? Did you miss my comment where I referred you to the University of Chicago’s Consortium on School Research? How (deleted) stupid are you that you can’t understand the Tribune editorial was based on that research?

    If you want to have a conversation with me, try to keep up. You have your head so far up your (deleted) that you wouldn’t know the real world from a hemorrhoid.

    How’s that for an opinion?

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:44 pm

  51. Why doesn’t Vallas have a chance? Seems his education background and experience in Gov would a pretty good alternative. I didn’t live in Chicago when he was here, but was he well liked?

    Comment by 44th Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:45 pm

  52. This latest bombshell about sexual abuse in public schools is not new. It just came to light publicly, it is not confined to CPS and it has been around a lot more than a decade. Ask a retired high school principal or counselor. You may be shocked about how prevalent this is state-wide. But…this may be a fatal blow for RE’s re-election.

    Comment by LevivotedforJudy Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:56 pm

  53. In my Ward, trash day is Tuesday. That goes for Tuesdays in November, February, and if necessary April.

    Comment by West Sider Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 1:59 pm

  54. The love spell by dr_mack@ yahoo. com has made wonders in my relationship, if you want to restore your relationship, i will advise you contact to Dr Mack :)

    Comment by Jenna Vandervort Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 2:13 pm

  55. ==Why doesn’t Vallas have a chance?==

    Vallas was the first CPS CEO to transfer tax revenues devoted to the teachers pension fund to the general education fund and probably made the smallest pension payments into CTPF of any CPS CEO since his tenure. This was how Daley bought labor peace but sent the Bill to Rahm.

    Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 2:49 pm

  56. @anon 2:49

    But he had clause that said if funding below 90%, holiday to be revoked. When he left CPS to run for governor against machine-backed Rod, with Skinny as his campaign manager, CPS pensions were 100% funded and the system had $300 million in cash reserves. So…

    Comment by DaleyMail Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 3:01 pm

  57. Spielman and FitzPatrick write: “It could also lead frightened parents to yank their kids out of CPS, exacerbating the enrollment decline.” If this does have an impact on enrollment it will likely be among higher income parents in CPS whose kids go to schools like Payton, and Lincoln Elementary where there were indeed a major sex abuse scandals according to the Tribune. Private schools like the Chicago Friends School, Chicago Waldorf School, the British School, and others are growing in Chicago and they are not cheap. Low income students have fewer options and there is really no reason to believe charter schools are exempt from these types of problems since they too are overseen by CPS.

    The Tribune did a good job in its articles, but it did not open the door to discuss students in the system who are already known to be sexual predators and have IEPs for mental health issues, called emotional behavior disorders. Many of those students have themselves been victims of sexual abuse within their own families and are under DCFS supervision. Because of CPS failure to provide services as shown by the ISBE special education inquiry there is really no reason to believe those students whether in CPS schools or in special private schools have been adequately support either.

    The sex abuse story in CPS is far from over.

    Comment by Rod Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 4:03 pm

  58. @47th Ward

    When you have to resort to name-calling, you’ve lost the argument.
    I’ll take that as an “uncle.”

    Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 4:39 pm

  59. Rich, you replied

    ===stick to a peace treaty among themselves and focus their ire at Rahm===

    Worked really well for Kennedy and Biss.

    ***

    Actually, it would have worked well for Kennedy or Biss in Chicago. The race ended up 45/26/24. So in Chicago there would have been a runoff and the winning challenger could have endorsed the other challenger (not having belittled him in the original). Which makes it interesting.

    Rahm has some money buddies, but he’s definitely no Pritzker, with unlimited funds plus a clean slate.

    He could be toast, and if the challengers make a no-hit pact, he could be burnt toast.

    Rahm shut out of a runoff? Now, that would be interesting.

    Comment by crazybleedingheart Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 5:47 pm

  60. It’s June 2018 folks. It’s going to be a very long campaign and I wouldn’t underestimate Emanuel’s ability to turn crisis around nor would I overestimate the ability of these mayoral wannabes to blow it.

    Comment by Shytown Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 5:50 pm

  61. ===The race ended up 45/26/24===

    This one has about eleventy thousand candidates, however.

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 5:57 pm

  62. ===When you have to resort to name-calling, you’ve lost the argument.===

    Then your handle should disqualify you from commenting on Emanuel.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 7:37 pm

  63. ==Running CPS is probably the toughest job in Chicago. And maybe the most important==

    Agree totally. Which is an awfully good argument against Rahm’s running CPS, given that he has a lot of other fairly important responsibilities.

    I read the summary of the research by UoC Consortium; I think a better way of putting the summa would be “Some students were harmed by the school closures, esp. the poor and POC; others were somewhat helped (by more money going to their schools) - although those who were helped weren’t the students in the welcoming schools, who were also harmed.

    Comment by dbk Monday, Jun 11, 18 @ 9:17 pm

  64. ==Let someone else have some of the fun. Put the future of the city in the hands of a union-dominated elected school board. How could that be worse than what Rahm’s got now?==

    You are right. It could hardly be worse. From Barbara Byrd Bennett, to filthy schools because of privatization, to sexual abuse, to reports of money needed for repairs going to build new schools after closing the old schools, Rahm has been sleeping at the wheel. An amateur board made up of people who love Chicago schools and Chicago children might make a a mistake now and then, but no way they would make as many as the current hand picked board of “professionals”.

    Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Jun 12, 18 @ 9:23 am

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