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The Democrats’ Madigan problem

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Illinois
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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan will be on the ballot in just one of Illinois’ 118 House districts this November, but his name and reputation will be featured in electoral battles throughout the state.

Gov. Bruce Rauner and the Republican Party will use Madigan against every Democrat from J.B. Pritzker on down to maybe even mosquito abatement district races.

Can Madigan’s lousy statewide image be used to defeat his fellow Democrats?

On the surface anyway, Madigan is less popular in Democratic Illinois than are unpopular Republicans Rauner and President Donald Trump. Sixty percent of Illinoisans polled in a recent Capitol Fax/We Ask America survey said they had an unfavorable view of Madigan, compared to 56 percent for President Donald Trump and 55 percent for Rauner.

They’re all doing pretty poorly, but Trump “wins” this category if you look at people with “very unfavorable” opinions. Forty-nine percent of 600 likely Illinois voters who were polled June 9-11 hold a very unfavorable view of the president, while 46 say they have a very unfavorable opinion of the Illinois speaker and 39 percent say that about the Republican governor. In contrast, 27 percent say that about J.B. Pritzker. The poll’s margin of error was +/-3.99 percent.

Overall, the poll found that Pritzker led Rauner by nine points, 36-27, with 26 percent choosing an unnamed third-party candidate and 11 percent undecided.

Just 31 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of Speaker Madigan, while 41 percent of Democrats have an unfavorable view, according to the poll. And lots of folks within what’s considered the “base” of the Democratic Party’s statewide strength don’t like Madigan, either. African-Americans are split 43-43. Women turn thumbs down 27-56 fave/unfave, as do Chicagoans (30-58), suburban Cook County residents (34-53) and labor union households (36-54).

Rauner has his own troubles with his party’s base. The only important GOP demographic he’s not underwater with outside of self-declared Republicans is senior citizens, and they just barely tolerate him. The Democrats are sure to use Rauner’s name and reputation against Republican candidates throughout the state.

So, my pollster came up with a question to try to see who was more popular (or unpopular, as the case may be) with voters in actual down-ballot races: “If the election for state legislator were being held today, are you more likely to vote for a candidate supported by Bruce Rauner, or a candidate supported by Michael Madigan?”

Forty-one percent said they’d be more likely to vote for a candidate backed by Rauner, while 32 percent said the same about Madigan. Another 27 percent said it wouldn’t make any difference either way.

While majorities or pluralities of Democratic base elements chose Madigan, significant minorities chose Rauner. For instance, 11 percent of Democrats chose a legislative candidate backed by Rauner, compared to 59 percent for Madigan (among Republicans, those numbers were 6 percent Madigan and 79 percent Rauner).

Among African-Americans, a significant 23 percent would choose a Rauner-backed candidate and 54 percent would choose a Madigan-backed legislative contender. Chicagoans were 19 percent for a Rauner candidate and 43 for a Madigan person; the Cook County suburbs went 32 for a Rauner candidate and 41 for a Madigan candidate, and union households broke 30 percent for the Rauner candidate to 43 percent for the Madigan candidate.

Another way of looking at it is that Rauner out-performs his personal favorable/unfavorable ratings across the board when we stack him up against the image of Speaker Madigan.

Just 36 percent of whites viewed Rauner favorably, but 44 percent would vote for a Rauner candidate over a Madigan candidate. Thirty-six percent of collar county voters like Rauner, but 49 percent would pick a Rauner candidate over the 29 percent who’d choose a Madigan candidate. Forty-four percent of Downstaters said they had a favorable impression of Rauner, and 51 percent would vote for a Rauner-backed candidate over a Madigan-backed candidate. I could go on, but you get the idea.

So, what does this tell us? Well, first of all, neither state politician is beloved (duh). Indeed, they’re so disliked that candidates should avoid any association with the both of them. But hotly contested campaigns are often won on the edges, and the anti-Madigan message might have an edge over the anti-Rauner message.

We didn’t do this test with President Trump, who will certainly be used by the Democrats against the Republicans in many areas. And there are other issues out there that will decide various races. Plus, as always, this is just one poll in June.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 9:20 am

Comments

Been saying this since 2016.

Macro vs. Micro. Rauner statewide, even with “Madigan” is still not the winning ticket.

Munger loses, Raunerites pick up GA seats.

Even with a Blue Wave scenario, I can see a possibility of Rauner losing, and those Raunerites winning GA seats.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 9:36 am
It’s ironic that the best act the head of the Illinois Democratic party could do to help his party’s candidates would be to resign as Speaker.

Comment by DVMAY Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 10:13 am
I partially blame Madigan’s lack of messaging for his bad polling. Whenever someone who attacks on corruption and insiders, like Rauner, but hypocritically got rich off the system for decades, you attack back.

But the Speaker has no messaging and seems to rarely say anything.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 10:14 am
- Even with a Blue Wave scenario, I can see a possibility of Rauner losing, and those Raunerites winning GA seats. -

I’ve thought this also. Even though Trump is just as unpopular as ever, his name is not on the ballot and with turnout historically different in off years, I could see some GOP pick ups in districts they lost in 2016.

Comment by Bumblin stumblin rumblin Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 11:04 am
Also, Madigan is more unpopular than Rauner and that will definitely play in hot GA races.

Comment by Bumblin stumblin rumblin Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 11:05 am
Here’s another thought as well…

Durkin’s Caucus… who they have running races in the micro versus the BTIA(tm) Rauner has at the Raunerite State Party and his own campaign shop… the micro, with Madigan, and the right campaign folks doing the shaping… that could matter.

Rauner, with Madigan’s numbers already baked, and Rauner so terribly unlikable statewide… its two different animals.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 11:14 am
The key problem with all the efforts by GovJunk is that he offers no credible reason to turn to him as the quality alternative to Madigan. He has established at all levels that his word isn’t worth the spit used to speak and the death of the vets in Quincy is a huge anchor around his skinny neck. It seems no amount of WeAskAmerica data can overcome that harsh reality.

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 11:50 am
I tend to discount Blame Madigan 4.0 and maybe I’ll come to regret that but so far I’m mostly dismissive. I think Madigan is a bit of a liability just not as much as Rauner and the Republicans are hoping.

Here’s my thought process: in 2016 the best Blame Madigan 3.0 campaign was run against John Bradley. In a part of the state that has been trending heavily Republican and is no friend to Madigan they were running an ad of Bradley offering effusive praise of Madigan. Yet on election day Severin only won by 6, compared to the 43 point margin Trump won the district by or the 25 point margin for Munger. Kirk also only won this district by 6, he underperformed other Republicans throughout much of Southern Illinois, so maybe John Bradley’s personal popularity in that district was as high as Duckworth’s appeal as a veteran.

It’s only one data point but the Blame Madigan campaign underperformed other Republicans, despite Madigan’s unpopularity. I’d take it more seriously if it was showing up in vote totals, until then I tend to think other factors will play a bigger role in determining outcomes, at least until it finally proves me wrong.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 12:32 pm
Think the voters want more than “that guys is really bad” campaigns. That is why JB is only 9+. A blue wave of anger can only take Dems so far and think that is also true for the “because madigan”. People like to be led even when it’s off a cliff

Comment by Publius Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 12:32 pm
The big difference between Madigan and Rauner is people know exactly why they hate Rauner and don’t know why they hate Madigan.

They hate Madigan because so many ad’s against him over the years has altered there image and opinion of him. If Madigan had countered those ad’s from the beginning he would be polling different.

On the other hand people know exactly why they hate Rauner whether it’s because he signed HB40, is anti-Union, or is just an all out bad governor who is unfit for office.

Comment by Real Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 3:11 pm
Also, Madigan is polling awful after some 40 years in office.. Yet Rauner is polling almost the same after only 3 years in office.

Rauner could never last 40 years in political office as Madigan has because the current uninformed Rauner supporters would have finally seen him for who he really is after a while. It’s just taking them a lot longer than the rest.

Comment by Real Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 3:15 pm
The adds write themselves. Running against a suburban R add pics of BR running adds against any D add pic of MJM and throw in a couple of tea spoons of ugly and that’s what you get Aug-Nov.

Comment by theCardinal Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 5:32 pm
It appears the 3-1/2 years of Rauner’s brainwashing the public via TV news, worked.

Comment by M Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 5:39 pm
===It appears the 3-1/2 years of Rauner’s brainwashing the public via TV news, worked.===

Didn’t help that Madigan’s Crew let Rauner bash him 24/7… and stayed silent for years to create goodwill.

Madigan is a victim, in many ways to letting this happen by his crew.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 5:41 pm
OW, I think Madigan would look like a victim even if his crew would have spent millions to countered all of Rauner’s political ads. The Dems don’t have as much money as Rauner and the Koch brothers’ Tea Party group.

Comment by M Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 6:14 pm
Anything is better than nothing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 25, 18 @ 6:18 pm