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Reason for Rauner optimism?

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Illinois
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* Gov. Rauner’s campaign manager Betsey Ankney tells Greg Hinz that there is a path to victory for her boss…

“In our focus groups, people can’t cite a single positive thing about Pritzker even after he’s spent $80 million” on TV ads, Ankney said. That’s why, when Rauner in the spring spent “$4 million over six weeks” running ads tying Pritzker to imprisoned ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, “his positive rating dropped 20 (percentage) points.”

Ankney declined to release the latest results from her campaign’s pollster, Dave Sackett. But said Rauner has pulled “closer than any public poll indicates.” The closest poll that I’m aware of came a couple of weeks ago from We Ask America for Capital Fax. It showed Pritzker ahead just 36 percent to 27 percent, a nine-point margin. (Pritzker hasn’t released his poll figures either, but it’s believed they show him much further ahead.)

Ankney said the campaign will seek to drive those numbers down more by staying on the attack. “There’s a whole host of things to come,” she said, indicating that among them are the Pritzker family’s failed Superior Bank. “The oppo book on him is very thick. You can expect to see a lot more. . . .He’s a target-rich environment.”

That having been said, Ankney’s view appears to be a minority one, even among Republicans. “There is a path to re-election for Rauner,” says one insider. “I just don’t think they’ve found it yet.”

“Maybe if Hillary Clinton was president and Democrats weren’t crawling out of their skin,” said another.

Pritzker put the blame on his sister Penny for the failure of Superior Bank on the FBI wiretaps…

“What happened to her bank?” Blagojevich asked. “Did it collapse or something?”

“Yeah, she was chairman of the bank,” Pritzker said. “It had subprime loans. I mean bad stuff.”

“Superior Bank turned out to be an inferior bank,” the governor remarked.

“Inferior. Exactly, exactly. Very good,” Pritzker said. “I like that. Inferior Bank. I haven’t thought about that. That’s a good one.”

However, the Pritzker campaign is currently running an ad which falsely claims that Rauner owns a company “which is paid millions to keep children from their parents.” You go down that road and it’s tough to complain when the other side does it back to you.

Even so, the Rauner campaign has cycled through three different messaging tracks in the past month or so. They kicked everything off with a Blagojevich ad, then switched to the toilet issue and now they’re on a Madigan track.

“How do you build a narrative if you’re changing messages every 2 weeks?” a Democratic pal of mine asked yesterday.

But, hey, this is politics. And just about anything can happen in politics, which is why I love it so much.

By the way, I heard weeks ago that the Rauner folks were touting a poll showing the Republican trailing by 8 points, which is 1 point closer than the poll I commissioned.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:32 am

Comments

Rauner won last time. Democrats would be crazy to think the election is in the bag in July.

You run like you’re behind through the finish line. You don’t get a pudding cup for second place.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:36 am
Rauner is clearly competitive directly versus JB. But the McCann factor is hard to predict. Ives surprised many of us.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:46 am
The crux for Rauner;

Rauner is underwater by double-digits, and trails by 8-9.

That signals Rauner is unlikable.

It’s not Pritzker. If Rauner was remotely close to being above water, Pritzker would be in serious trouble. Pritzker isn’t.

Rauner is fortunate, as it appears the Pritzker Crew is seemingly clueless to making a case, while having “Rauner Failed” as the obvious cornerstone they continually ignore with this national mantra that seems to be the thread instead of hammering and shaking, o quarter, no aid, no comfort… Rauner failed, here’s where he failed.

Where o where are the video clips of Rauner saying “Pat Quinn failed”?

Where are they? Have ya even looked for them?

Right now, instead of the phony ad they’re rolling, why o why aren’t you using Rauner’s own words about Quinn failing and showing Rauner is worse? Are you lacking the talent to get that in 30, 45, 60 second messages? It’s a total head scratcher.

Rauner is the most vulnerable incumbent governor in America, the worst Republican governor in America, is facing a revolt from the Right with McCann (maybe a 5% wound?) and we get nothing about the damage Rauner has done?

There’s 15 weeks.

Ya spend $3 million a week… which is massive… and “only” $45 million (they said money was no object, which in of itself was ridiculous to boast, but I digress) on these failures, that only an incumbent can own…

Heck, Rauner can feel optimistic.

“Bruce Rauner failed”.

Stay disciplined. This is the ball game.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:51 am
Received a congressional poll call the other day that included McCann and Jackson in the Governor’s race. Rauner may be ignoring the third party candidates, but apparently others are not.

Comment by Been there, done that Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:52 am
I don’t think complaining about the untruthfulness of Rauner’s ads has ever actually convinced Rauner to be more truthful.

Comment by A Jack Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:53 am
Second what word says.

Also, do any of these polls include McCann? I don’t think either Rauner or Pritzker’s polls (or WeAskAmerica, for that matter) should be viewed as a definitive snapshot if they don’t, considering he’s definitely on the ballot. He may only get 4 or 5%, but still should be included in the questioning both for disaffected conservatives and those whose first reaction to the Rauner or Pritzker question is “Neither”.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:54 am
I don’t think Rauner switching messages so much *necessarily* means these messages aren’t “working”. You can tie them all together later.

And I kinda think it’s nuts to assume JB will win by double digits. When’s the last time an incumbent Governor got *that* worked over?

But Ankney didn’t really say anything unexpected from a losing campaign manager.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:56 am
==Rauner may be ignoring the third party candidates==

I’m sure he’s not.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:58 am
===*necessarily* means these messages aren’t “working”===

The point is that you usually can’t burn in a message in just two weeks.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:01 am
–Also, do any of these polls include McCann? I don’t think either Rauner or Pritzker’s polls (or WeAskAmerica, for that matter) should be viewed as a definitive snapshot if they don’t, considering he’s definitely on the ballot.–

Jackson, too. Percentage points are huge when the fight is between the 40 yard lines.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:02 am
This.

===The point is that you usually can’t burn in a message in just two weeks.===

The Rauner Camp must absolutely know Rauner is unlikable, so changing every couple weeks, they are seemingly trying to find the recipe needed with Rauner so far under water.

What messsge can they burn in long term to offset Rauner being so unlikable?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:03 am
Rauner’s team is hopeful because people can’t recite Pritzker’s message?

The only message voters are going to care about in Nov is that Rauner has been a terrible Governor. As long as the Dem doesn’t tank his own chances, Rauner will get crushed, because he deserves to.

Rich Miller could run as a Dem, shake a lot of hands, just be nice and quiet, and he’d win the election too.

Comment by Blue Bayou Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:13 am
==people can’t cite a single positive thing about Pritzker==

But can they name one accomplishment (other than the Rauner Tax) in 3+ years? Like OW said, JB’s crew should be playing straight from the Rauner vs. Quinn playbook

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:13 am
===considering he’s definitely on the ballot===

Yeah, but he just got on the ballot. Give it time.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:15 am
==The point is that you usually can’t burn in a message in just two weeks.==

Fact. But they still have time to circle back to the best one. Less and less every day, but still time.

But I won’t deny that Rauner’s messaging has, so far, had a certain schizophrenia about it.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:18 am
He barely beat Quinn 4 years ago. Quinn left Cook County up over 400k votes and lost by 30+k.. 4 years later, Rauner has a horrible record, big negatives, McCann, and Trump on his back. J B leaves Cook with a 575,000 plurality or more. McCann steals 5% downstate from Rauner.. 2+2 DOES EQUAL 4 here.

Comment by Wow Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:18 am
==But can they name one accomplishment (other than the Rauner Tax) in 3+ years?==

I’m also skeptical of these assertions without the underlying data. Public polling shows JB’s favorables are above water (unlike Rauner), so clearly there’s a chunk of voters who like something about him.

That something may be, “He’s not Rauner”, lol.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:20 am
Hope Greg did not sustain injuries during the bamboozlement he endured.
Guess we now know who is driving the GovJunk clown car. Talking about the bank should open the door to the GA bank that was so kinky it failed BEFORE the market crash occurred. GovJunk gave top honcho six figure bonus and workers got gift card. Still pendin’ foreclosure cases/
Should be fun.
GovJunk knows the Blagoofian stuff fizzled. Maybe some video of CommandoIves doing her tap dance on his head.

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:22 am
The Pritzker campaign would be negligent not to push the envelope on “truth in advertising” in the current political environment. The orange one is exhibit A for how little truth matters when running for (or staying in) office.
Holding the high moral ground does NOT win elections.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:24 am
==Also, do any of these polls include McCann?==

Sure they do. He’s some % of undecided.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:25 am
Rauner ain’t gonna win but having said that it would be nice if the BIG man laid out his tax plan so we could know before November

Comment by Sue Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:27 am
Rauner won by the message that Quinn was a failure, and he wasnt Quinn.
That is Pritzkers path, just like others have said.
Rauners only path is “The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know”.

As long as Pritzker can avoid that message Rauner has nothing. Pritzker needs to avoid the misleading ads that make him look like he can’t be trusted, and stay on Rainer Failed.

Comment by SOIL M Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:27 am
Those messages are likely being pitched at different audiences. For any path, he needs a coalition of people to merge. They’ll both be underwater on favorability by election day. They’re both committed to the sty now.

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:28 am
Pritzker should tout his job creation accomplishments in the tech field and contrast it with Rauner, who couldn’t name one job he created.

Rauner is probably the worst non-criminal governor and caused the most damage in Illinois history. An incumbent’s horrendous record should be seen as such a boon. Woe to those who can’t exploit this politically. The “Rauner failed” message is the most relevant, because of the real damage. It’s a simple and powerful message.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:30 am
===They’ll both be underwater on favorability by election day.===

Opinion, based on nothing.

Rauner, as an incumbent, being underwater is a recipe for disaster. Ask Quinn

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:32 am
This has been popping up on my FB feed for a couple months: https://facebook.com/raunerfailedme/

Comment by yinn Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:33 am
The ads against McCann will open some eyes. The additional ads about Madigan/JB and JB/Blago will open eyes wider.

A lot of people in this state know what has caused the demise of Illinois and it aint Rauner.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:36 am
===A lot of people in this state know what has caused the demise of Illinois and it aint Rauner.===

… and yet, Rauner is terribly underwater, losing everywhere but downstate, leading by only 3 points… yeah… people know… Rauner failed us.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:41 am
==Those messages are likely being pitched at different audiences.==

That might be the case if they were all running simultaneously through different markets and platforms. But it seems more like they’re still testing to find that right message to me.

They can find it. There’s still time (”until there isn’t”- OW). Going after Madigan seems like a step in the right direction to me.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:41 am
==The additional ads about Madigan/JB and JB/Blago will open eyes wider.==

Yeah, those Blago ads have done a bang-up job so far.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:43 am
–Rich Miller could run as a Dem, shake a lot of hands, just be nice and quiet, and he’d win the election too.–

Crazy talk (not the Miller part, but that any Dem could coast to a victory in November).

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:45 am
Other than self funding his campaign so there is plenty of cash to spread around to the other races what is a positive thing about JB?

He is a tax avoiding billionaire promising all kinds of new spending that will magically be paid for by a progresssive income tax that failed by 10 votes last session

He refuses to acknowledge even a smidgen of corruption In Illinois politics even though Jllinois leads the nation in distrust of state

He also refuses to acknowledge our sky high property taxes and how that is contributing to the exodus of people and businesses from Illinois

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:54 am
Word is right, nobody should expect to coast to victory. Rauner’s money will see to that if nothing else.

If Pritzker wants to win, and I assume he does, they need to take their campaign up to #11 24/7/365 until the day after the election. No let up. that is how he can win.

= tying Pritzker to imprisoned ex-Gov. Rod Blagojevich=

They are crying about the Politico story yet try to tie JB to Blago? Yeah, there is a real strong tie in./s

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:00 pm
There is a riddle that has to be solved by Republicans for Rauner to win.

If is not worthy of a protest/anti-left vote,
and he hasn’t earned a support/pro-conservative vote, then who are his voters and how does he get them to the polls?

Anti-left voters want to hear about prosecuting criminal illegal aliens, immigration enforcement vs #AbolishICE, etc, but Rauner is a Sanctuary state kind of guy.

Pro-conservative voters want to hear about fiscal responsibility, 1A, 2A, pro-life, etc., but Rauner, once again, is the guy that chose to go three years with out a budget and run the backlog/debt/deficit up, exponentially. And he chose to be the guy that lied to everyone about being pro-choice, and threw in taxpayer funded abortion to his platform.

I’m undecided. He’s not worthy of a protest vote, or a support vote.

Comment by cdog Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:07 pm
“people can’t cite a single positive thing about Pritzker” Maybe not, but “He’s not Bruce Rauner” is pretty darned convincing.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:09 pm
Pop the champagne and start measuring the drapes, the Democratic nominee is polling at 36% in deep blue Illinois.

Don’t change a thing JB all Illinois needs is the higher taxes you propose and everything will work itself out

Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:23 pm
Nope all people need to hear : thank you governor, Indiana loves you. That ad is a winner and Governor badmouth should had remembered like family keep it to yourself never make it public. Cant be undone.

Comment by Annoyance Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:25 pm
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 11:02 am:

–Also, do any of these polls include McCann? I don’t think either Rauner or Pritzker’s polls (or WeAskAmerica, for that matter) should be viewed as a definitive snapshot if they don’t, considering he’s definitely on the ballot.–

Jackson, too. Percentage points are huge when the fight is between the 40 yard lines.

——-

Maybe the pollsters are assuming that Jackson will be in jail on Election Day.

Comment by Leatherneck Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:58 pm
The political environment is proving considerably more volatile than people expected (myself included). I can’t stand the thought of Rauner winning, but JB’s crew seems to have lost focus and energy, plus it’s not like JB himself is all that attractive as a candidate. This one may be a little closer than people think and like Word said earlier, between the forty yard lines every percentage point will be huge.

Comment by Flapdoodle Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 12:59 pm
“Rich Miller could run as a Dem, shake a lot of hands, just be nice and quiet, and he’d win the election too.”

I don’t know about that. Have you seen his oppo file??

Seriously though, I think people are missing the bigger picture here and that clearly includes Ms. Ankney. Rauner doesn’t have a prayer unless and until he unites his party. There is still a very, very significant rift within the Rauner party as can be seen by Jeanne Ives continued sniping and Rauner supporters continued anger at her. McCann is going to pull double digits in key GOP areas unless they fix this rift and darned soon.

One other thing, why isn’t the governor running positive ads to reinforce his own weaknesses? “JB is bad” is simply not a strong enough message when weighed against Rauner’s failures of the last four years. You need to remind people of all the good he’s done. Ya know, good things like…ummm…wait, I’m thinking…oh nevermind.

Comment by Anon0091 Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 1:08 pm
==Crazy talk (not the Miller part, but that any Dem could coast to a victory in November).==

…not to mention the whole “nice and quiet” part. lol

Comment by A guy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 1:12 pm
Geez, the paper trail on Miller goes back 35 years. Iy’s Going to take a lot of interns to read and catalogue all of that material.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 1:26 pm
===“people can’t cite a single positive thing about Pritzker” Maybe not, but “He’s not Bruce Rauner” is pretty darned convincing.===

I would argue that “He’s not Bruce Rauner” is a HUGE positive.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 1:37 pm
Polls smolls. Every downstate republican I know is sick of him. My grandparents who are hardcore right hate him. He is done.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 1:48 pm
When I see Rauner dump a bunch of money into down ticket GOP candidates is when I believe he thinks he has a chance. But regardless. He loses by 9.

Comment by BlueDogDem Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 2:07 pm
==Rauner doesn’t have a prayer unless and until he unites his party.==

Even if he could (and he can’t for all the reasons cdog states above), he still wouldnt have much of a chance. Illinois is an overwhelmingly dem state, and in this first election of the trump era, he isn’t going to be able to drive down dem turnout at all. Add to that his disapproval numbers with independents, his inability to snooker 2 out of 5 union households a second time, and all of the voter registration changes since 2014 (which may end up being a huge plus for all dems, especially on college campuses) - it spells doom for Rauner.

We can all wish for an exciting nail biter of a race, but it seems unlikely. Once McCann and Jackson are added to the poll questions, numbers will probably only get farther apart.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 2:35 pm
It would take one of the worst run campaigns in state history for JB to lose. So far that’s pretty much what we’re seeing. Are they holding their fire for a surge the last two months or are they just not competent, that’s the question I have.
How about a narrative showing how Rauner has lied repeatedly to the public since becoming Governor. Go back to the budget impasse when Rauner went in front of the microphones regularly stating that a budget deal was close when that wasn’t the case or when he said he was working for a budget when he was behind the scenes scuttling a deal. Include the lie about Ives being an ally of Madigan. Conclude with Rauner has been lying since he’s become Governor and he’s lying about JB Pritzger now. Use some statistics showing how much harm he has done to this state. His record of failure is there to exploit but will they do it.

Comment by The Dude Abides Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 2:45 pm
Yes there’s a reason for optimism.
Some folks running Pritzker’s campaign are losing focus on what they need to tell 2014 Rauner voters in order to win them over. Stop nationalizing this election.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:11 pm
I’ve heard a few people who are so sick of Pritzker’s ads that it’s very unlikely they’ll even consider voting for him. Politics can be about what have you done for me lately and all JB has done has annoyed them to death by early July

Comment by Skeptical Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:24 pm
===Pop the champagne and start measuring the drapes, the Democratic nominee is polling at 36% in deep blue Illinois.===

Hmm…

“Keep plugging. The Republican nominee and incumbent governor is polling at 27% in deep blue Illinois.”

That’s… 27%… for an incumbent.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:25 pm
On top of low Republican enthusiasm in general, Rauner just gay married a couple and the usual suspects are upset.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:39 pm
==So far that’s pretty much what we’re seeing.==

That’s just silly. I know the CapFax comments section is all a bunch of undiscovered master ad men, but so far JB isn’t even running the worst campaign *in the Governor’s race*. It’s not Team JB that has been on the back foot about Nazis and if Champaign-Urbana is a good place and child prisons.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:51 pm
OT and Snark: why would anyone suggest that Miller guy? We don’t need more Madigan flunkees in office here in Illinois: http://wtax.com/news/101101-rauner-unloads-on-dems-and-on-rich-miller/

Comment by Earnest Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 3:58 pm
-what is a positive thing about JB?-

His actions haven’t hurt others, the very public he’s supposed to be representing.

Comment by Christopher Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 4:10 pm
-Rauner just gay married a couple-

Do you mean he presided over the marriage of a gay couple? Because it’s a marriage whether they are heterosexual or homosexual, not a “gay” marriage or a “straight” marriage.

Comment by Christopher Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 4:23 pm
==I’ve heard a few people who are so sick of Pritzker’s ads that it’s very unlikely they’ll even consider voting for him. Politics can be about what have you done for me lately and all JB has done has annoyed them to death by early July==

Anecdotes aren’t worth much. During the primary I read plenty about how Rauner had so successfully tied Ives to Madigan.

Comment by Nacho Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 4:29 pm
===so sick of Pritzker’s ads that===

Then they probably wouldn’t have voted for him anyway.

You know how you can tell when a message is really burning in? When people start complaining.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 4:38 pm
=Stop nationalizing this election.=. Little chance of that happening. Despite the fact that Rauner is significantly underwater that alone won’t drive turnout. This is a blue state with a very unpopular President who lost Illinois by double digits. It will get people to the polls. And if they get there and associate Rauner with Trump that helps Pritzker. The enthusiasm was clearly there in the Democrat primary and they’re trying to build on that. Trump allows them to do so.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 9:41 pm
His recent trip to dc the schematics have been set by the kochs for the patsy to make a national run against trump, so he has to lose, maybe

Comment by Rabid Wednesday, Jul 11, 18 @ 10:21 pm