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The future of Pritzker and Madigan

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[Rep. Christian Mitchell] represents Hyde Park and nearby portions of the South Side. Considered by some to be at least a mild political reformer, he’s African-American, less than half Madigan’s age (76), got the job [as DPI’s acting executive director] with behind-the-scenes help from Pritzker and actually showed up on a picket line to protest a local appearance by Vice President Mike Pence the other day. I doubt Madigan has orated before a picket line in the past half-century. On the other hand, Madigan was forced to dump predecessor Executive Director Tim Mapes amid a sexual harassment scandal and designated another lieutenant, Mike Kasper, to stay around as the party’s treasurer in case Mitchell gets any wild ideas. So control is, at best, split.

Ergo, the question: Will the speaker-for-life finally let loose? And, if he doesn’t, will Pritzker give him a shove if he gets himself elected?

One theory out there is that Madigan would have no choice but to go, and fairly soon, because his caucus has decided he’s a liability. “They don’t want to live with another four years under him,” says one top Democratic insider—particularly since Pritzker personally is filling the war chests of darn near every Democratic candidate in the state, presumably buying their loyalty in the process. Pritzker needs Madigan long enough to learn the ropes and get through his first budget, and then let nature run its course, says that source.

Pritzker would emerge as his own man, in his own incremental way, argues another ranking Dem. “He won’t try to gouge out Madigan’s eyes like Blagojevich did. But he’ll be more effectively assertive than (Pat) Quinn,” another ex-Democratic governor whose idea of working with Madigan was “pounding on the table.” So look for some patronage jobs and other ducats to change hands, particularly if Pritzker starts pushing his promised graduated income tax plan. But little by little, Pritzker would assert power. […]

One of those who ran against Pritzker in the primary, state Sen. Daniel Biss, predicts a bumpy ride ahead, amending his prediction during the primary campaign that Madigan would call the shots if Pritzker won. “I expect there will be tension between the speaker and the governor, just like there has been with every governor,” he says. “Madigan will be resistant to enact progressive priorities.” Like the progressive income tax or, say, a statewide $15 minimum wage.

Thoughts?

* Related…

* Rep. Gordon-Booth talks Madigan, criminal justice reform: Rep. Gordon-Booth, a member of Democratic leadership in the House, says because of her role she may have been insulated from some of the harassment her colleagues and others have been exposed to. However, she believes Speaker Michael Madigan has acted quickly to address issues that have come before him.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:32 am

Comments

===Thoughts?===

People should stop asking Daniel Biss to make predictions. He’s terrible at it.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:36 am
This sounds about right to me, though maybe with a little less “JB asserting himself” and a little more “Madigan’s natural erosion continues”.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:37 am
JB’s money will be Madigan’s downfall.

Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:45 am
If reducing MJM’s power is the top priority, then clearly JB is the only choice. Rauner has proven over the last 3+ years that he is a failure when it comes to that.

Comment by Henry Francis Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:49 am
Eventually there will have to be a put up or shut up moment - maybe after the 2020 elections Pritzker would have to tell Madigan that he’s going to call for someone else to be Speaker, because he doesn’t want to deal with the Madigan nonsense in the 2022 election. By that point, after Pritzker’s funded the HDems for the 2018 & 2020 elections and since Pritzker will control the jobs, I think the caucus will go with Pritzker over Madigan.

Comment by Grand Avenue Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:57 am
Greg is 100% correct. This is the dynamic to watch. Anyone who doesn’t get that a Gov. Pritzker would fundamentally change the Springfield power dynamics is either not paying attention or a willfully-blind Raunerite.

Comment by Anon0091 Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 11:59 am
I can’t see Madigan taking a step back prior to redistricting. That would put him as Speaker through at least the Spring of 2021, and honestly, probably Spring of 2022.

That said, JB’s money, in theory, will weaken Madigan. But presumably Madigan knows this. So maybe Madigan doesn’t put up on fight on certain issues, say a progressive income tax, and let’s the caucus (or JB’s money) decide how the wind will blow on certain issues.

I somewhat doubt this gets ugly; Madigan knows JB’s money could make his life difficult, so why fight it every step of the way? Meanwhile, JB is going to need Madigan, especially early on.

Comment by From the 'Dale to HP Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:02 pm
Is the best way to really rid of Madigan to vote for JB?

Comment by Cyprian Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:03 pm
Let’s jump in the wayback machine.

These articles appeared in 2002. They wondered, and some predicted, that having the first Democratic Governor in 26 years would lead to a new Democratic power structure in Springfield with the new Democratic Governor, Rod Blagojevich, at the top. Well it turns out about 90% of Governing this state requires legislation and those who decide which legislation gets called for a vote (and in some cases which ones pass) have a ton of power that doesn’t get supplanted by a new chief executive even if its one from the same party.

Hinz says of Speaker Madigan:

… because his caucus has decided he’s a liability. “They don’t want to live with another four years under him,” says one top Democratic insider

Actually pushing Madigan out in favor of a new Speaker is going to take more than anonymous quotes, it’s going to take a concerted visible effort by actual people up against a power structure built to protect Madigan’s speakership. Good luck.

Also, if Pritzker is the Governor actually governing the state in year 1 (and probably all four) is going to be a herculean effort that’s going to require all Democrats pulling in the same direction, the Republicans aren’t going to put any votes on a budget to help. You can’t do that in the middle of a power struggle, especially that particular power struggle. This is just barstool/fantasy politics talk that won’t go past anonymous speculative quotes.

Comment by The Captain Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:04 pm
Pritzker is now by far the pre-eminent Democratic fundraiser and if elected, will push a policy agenda more progressive than Madigan’s liking (for example, an increase in the minimum wage is a near-term certainty). But Madigan has both legislative genius and decades of experience. There is no way Pritzker could learn all of the legislative “ropes” from Madigan in a few months. Madigan, It is very likely that Madigan will remain as Speaker in a diminished role,concentrating in the area of legislative tactics in which he is strongest.

Comment by Quiet Sage Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:06 pm
Assuming Pritzker is elected I am sure he and Madigan will have some disagreements….that is always expected when you have 2 strong willed people.

However, Madigan is extremely important to Pritzker and Madigan’s Caucus when one realizes that redistricting is on the horizon.

Whatever their differences may be, until we get new maps, the two of them will be sure to get along. Also, i would not be the least surprised if after the new maps are drawn Madigan decides to step aside.

Comment by MOON Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:16 pm
I read the old saying that trying to get Democrats unified on anything is like trying to herd a group of cats. Republicans on the other hand usually act more as a wolfpack that follows the leader.
Pritzker should keep that in mind before trying to push Madigan out.

Comment by DuPage Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:18 pm
We need Madigan until Pritzker is elected then it’s time for Madigan to go. You been around too long and are no longer needed. You are a liability at this point and you sticking around can ensure Rauner another term or more Rauner’s down the line. We don’t need Rauner or Madigan at this point but it’s because of Madigan’s stale stance on progressive policy that Rauner is in more of a position to do more damage.

Comment by Real Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:19 pm
I agree with Anon0091, it is time to watch JB ease Madigan out. I will say that 4 years of Rauner slamming Madigan has taken its toll with the rank and file. People hate Madigan that never knew he existed 4 years ago, and that will be hard if not impossible to undo. The obvious thing is let JB ease Mike out, and JB takes over.

Comment by Uncle Ernie Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:22 pm
DuPage

That analysis is not always accurate.
Just look at Congress; the Republicans are the CATS and the DEMS are the WOLFPACK.

Comment by MOON Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:24 pm
===until we get new maps, the two of them will be sure to get along===

Except, Pritzker has vowed to veto a map that “is in any way drafted or created by legislators, political party leaders and/or their staffs or allies” https://capitolfax.com/2018/03/05/candidate-question-independent-maps/

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:26 pm
RICH

If Pritzker follows through on that vow he most certainly will not be that popular with the legislatures in the Dem. Party

Candidates promise and/or promote many things during an election….what they do after their elected is often something else.

Comment by MOON Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:31 pm
the question i’d have for you, rich, is, is there anyone who has the ability to step in as majority leader?

a curious aside, in california, leaders have that position until someone else has the votes to take it away from them. almost always, the next leader is selected and elevated (not at the same time) before the term ends of the current leader. i can’t imagine how that goes down, but that’s what happens. would be interesting if the house dems coalesced around a future leader and then gave madigan six months or so (i think that’s what happened in the california senate w toni atkins and de leon) to train the new leader before ceding control…

Comment by bored now Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 12:44 pm
Prediction: JB will sign a gerrymandered map.

I can’t imagine the Speaker cutting a deal with JB to get him elected and not have a way to enforce it. There may be some kabuki disagreements, but I don’t see JB forcing Madigan out or anything close to it.

Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 2:07 pm
Madigan is not anti-progressive ideologically. He is risk averse. When he believes many Dems will win with a progressive tax, for example, he will move along as the voters move. Same as happened with death penalty and gay marriage.

Comment by walker Monday, Jul 23, 18 @ 7:42 pm
Come on Bruce you know how to pass money out that’s how you won last election just ask Meeks and Corey Brooks

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 7:04 am
Just had the strange realization that I could soon be supporting Madigan if the alternative is stuff like $15 minimum wage.

Comment by logic not emotion Tuesday, Jul 24, 18 @ 8:48 am