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Morning Consult: Rauner the most unpopular governor facing reelection

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Illinois
Polls

* With the usual caveat that Morning Consult’s polling methodology might charitably be described as “murky“…

Whew.

Those other two aren’t running for reelection this year, so Rauner is the least popular governor in that category. Alaska’s governor is second on that list, according to the poll, with a 54 percent disapproval rating.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:35 am

Comments

The failure to address Rauner’s personal favorables to try to win is gross malpractice, no matter what other polling seems like a better “avenue”

The admitting that Rauner is so terribly unlikable that even trying to make him likable is a futile act is passively telling Rauner “you’re chances of winning aren’t the greatest, because so few people approve of you”

Rauner’s failure and disapproval numbers are the biggest problems that the Rauner Crew purposely ignores, or know they can’t overcome.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:45 am
Even Pat Quinn circa 2014 looks at those numbers and says, “Oof, that’s bad, guy.”

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:47 am
JB doesn’t even need to debate Rauner. JB doesn’t even need to campaign in 6 county Chicago metro area. Probably the best Rauner can do is lose by 8 points.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:49 am
How bad is it?
It is so bad that how bad it is - doesn’t matter.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:51 am
Madigan/Taxes/Toilets. Still waiting for a reason to vote *for* him.

Comment by Skeptic Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:57 am
Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Comment by don the legend Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:58 am
I’m curious how many of the 27% who approve of Bruce’s performance simply wanted to get the pollster off the phone.

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 11:59 am
“murky” methodology by Morning Consult not withstanding, the main take away is Rauner’s bad numbers are not improving at all, even compared to previous Consult polls

Comment by DarkHorse Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:09 pm
Can’t beat somebody with nobody, but might beat Rauner with anybody.

Comment by Trapped in the 'burbs Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:13 pm
This is why, right here, there is an ad about the #metoo issues in the Madigan organization.
While this polling may not be the benchmark for all great polling it stills shows a big problem.
Again I can’t imagine he’s down 9 and has these numbers as well and is running the October ad 104 days out unless his own crew sees really bad horrible numbers that no one is telling us?

Comment by Frank talks Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:17 pm
As much as I am concerned about the amount of money in politics, is is somehow satisfying to see Bruce Rauner being outspent. He has flaunted his money for the last 3 years and now J.B. can buy and sell him. Rauner’s money is a rounding error to JB’s.

Comment by Former State Employee Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:24 pm
JB doesn’t even need to run attack ads. All he has to do is stay somewhat positive.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:25 pm
===Again I can’t imagine he’s down 9 and has these numbers…===

I’d go a step further.

Rauner being down 9… but 15 points under water.

The benchmark that should trouble the Pritzker Crew is how can a failed incumbent governor who is 15 points under water only behind by 9 points?

Pritzker’s Crew has their own problems, including this thing of adding or inserting a national talking points for no good reason. It’s like a pristine lawn, and you come across a random weed.

October. Go national, Trump, whatever, in October.

Rauner is a failed governor, upside down, considered the worst Republican governor and most vulnerable incumbent in America. Stay local… at least until October.

Rauner is helping by refusing to try to rehabilitate his own image. Why go national talking points? Ugh.

Yep, Rauner is terribly under water but only down 9? That should worry both sides for different reasons.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:26 pm
==Again I can’t imagine he’s down 9 and has these numbers as well and is running the October ad 104 days out unless his own crew sees really bad horrible numbers that no one is telling us?==

Down 9 *is* the “really bad horrible number”. You have to go back to 1960 to find an incumbent who lost re-election by that kind of margin.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:38 pm
When 2018 is sizing up to be an anti-Trump year , Rauner is swimming against the tide in Illinois. A large enough percentage of Illinois voters want higher taxes and more benefits: JB is the man to deliver.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:41 pm
=A large enough percentage of Illinois voters want higher taxes and more benefits: =

The main benefit being: lower interest payments on debt after paying down.

Comment by Deadbeat Conservative Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:49 pm
We’re in an era of “lesser of evils,” at all levels of politics.

Comment by anon Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:50 pm
===You have to go back to 1960 to find an incumbent who lost re-election by that kind of margin. ===

Interesting point.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:50 pm
==Interesting point.==

And it cuts both ways- beating an incumbent Governor in IL is demonstrably *really hard*, so while I don’t want to minimize JB’s lead of ~9, he can’t sleep on it, either.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:53 pm
===You have to go back to 1960 to find an incumbent who lost re-election by that kind of margin. ===

Rauner isn’t your typical incumbent governor.

This incumbent’s whole term has been about destroying Illinois for an agenda, and selling that destruction with “better messsging”

“I’m frustrated too, but taking steps to reform… is more important than a short term budget stalemate”

How many incumbent governors had that as their mantra as a whole state legislature sat and went Sine Die without a budget, before or after 1960?

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:57 pm
===I don’t want to minimize JB’s lead of ~9, he can’t sleep on it, either.===

Agreed. If anything, they need to be less passive and take it to Rauner in Illinois-centric ways, suffocating Rauner as Rauner did to Quinn. They ain’t there yet.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 12:59 pm
==Rauner isn’t your typical incumbent governor.==

And he’s trailing by an atypical amount.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:01 pm
- Deadbeat Conservative -

I doubt much debt will get paid down. The Democrats and their constituents will look for new benefits . Universal pre-k. More after school programs. Free college tuition. An expansion of Medicaid. The demand is endless.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:04 pm
Steve - that’s better than having Bruce wasting billions of dollars to achieve nothing and increase the state debt.

Comment by Ike Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:11 pm
We are still in the summer–if mid September hits and Pritzker has not improved his numbers that might be an issue, but a lot of people are not paying attention yet.

The other possibility is how negative this campaign is going to be it might end up with everyone having low favorability.

Keep in mind the fundamentals. It’s a bad year for the GOP, in a blue state, with GOP incumbent down 9 points, and a mobilized Dem base. Rauner probably comes in around 40-43 or so unless McCann eats into the R base significantly.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:21 pm
Archpundit, wait until people start paying attention to what a weak candidate JB is. When more and more ads are rolled out with him and Madigan, him and Blago, him and zip accomplishments.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:38 pm
===wait until people start paying attention to what a weak candidate JB is. When more and more ads are rolled out with him and Madigan, him and Blago, him and zip accomplishments.===

Again,

Rauner is unlikable.

Rauner is double digits unlikable, the worst Republican and most vulnerable governor in America.

But please, ignoring that, tell me more about the “lesser of two evils”, LOL

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:42 pm
===When more and more ads are rolled out with him and Madigan, him and Blago, him and zip accomplishments.

But the current governor has zip accomplishments and had zip accomplishments.

Look at the fundamentals. They are all bad for Rauner. Making it worse, Rauner is bad for Rauner because people dislike him personally and for his performance. JB can be meh, but he’s not Bruce Rauner.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 1:46 pm
There have been other polls, all of which have Pritzker up by healthy double digits. Add to that favorability surveys like this one and I guarantee you Rauner is not taking comfort from the polls.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Wow, Rauner is in some truly bad company with those two. Shaky polling aside, drives home the point that he is in deep guano.

Comment by Arhur Andersen Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:06 pm
@ Steve = I doubt much debt will get paid down. The Democrats and their constituents will look for new benefits . Universal pre-k. More after school programs. Free college tuition. An expansion of Medicaid. The demand is endless.=

The problem with your “doubt” is that there is a mountain of evidence against it. The exisiting tax increase, both pre-Rauner and now, have benn used to pay down debt and reduce interest costs. Those who say otherwise are engaging in alternate fact propagation - aka lying.

To base your predicition of the future on false premises doesn’t make sense.

Comment by Deadbeat Conservative (TBB) Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:23 pm
==When more and more ads are rolled out with him and Madigan, him and Blago==

Heh, “when”.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:36 pm
What did Kirk get in 2016? 39.8%? Is Rauner really going to do that so better than Kirk? Maybe Duckworth is better than JB, and Rauner doesn’t have Kirk’s health issues - but Kirk is/was a reasonable guy, not a “failure” at his job.

Comment by DarkHorse Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:38 pm
===Is Rauner really going to do that so better than Kirk

Good point.

Comment by Archpundit Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 2:49 pm
“When more and more ads are rolled out with him and Madigan, him and Blago, him and zip accomplishments.”

The Madigan/Blago ads have been constantly runnin’ and Rauner’s numbers are consistenly way down. He’s tryin’ to bring JB down with him.

It’s Rauner who has “zip accomplishments.” When’s he going to run on his record?

Pritzker has a commercial on TV in which he mentions 7,000 jobs he helped create in the tech industry. Rauner couldn’t name one job he created.

I really like the positive ads and look forward to more from Pritzker. He needs to get his numbers up.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 3:14 pm
Hey, murky is better than skeevy, no?

Comment by Don Gerard Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 3:31 pm
Grandson, tell us “how” JB helped create those 7000 jobs outside of writing a check from his inheritance. Give one example of JB actually DOING something, leading something that can be considered an accomplishment.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 4:34 pm
===Give one example of JB actually DOING something, leading something that can be considered an accomplishment===

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wSSSi9zsF6g

“Questions?”

Oh, go look and see if Rauner ran any ads with people explaining how Rauner created jobs.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 4:39 pm
==Grandson, tell us “how” JB helped create those 7000 jobs==

Doesn’t really matter; point is JB can, and in fact, already is, run ads showing himself as very accomplished. That you don’t think he accomplished those things the right way is shifting the goalposts.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 5:17 pm
==Grandson, tell us “how” JB helped create those 7000 jobs outside of writing a check from his inheritance. ==

Why is that Grandson’s job? Why don’t you tell all of us what jobs Rauner has created, other than Leslie Munger’s?

You sound like a guy who’s salty because he’s going to be losing his cushy state job come January.

Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 5:43 pm
Always remember its not over until the fat lady sings.

Comment by Mama Wednesday, Jul 25, 18 @ 5:44 pm
Vote for Sam McCann—don’t give the election to Mike Madigan

Comment by Olmsted Thursday, Jul 26, 18 @ 7:31 am