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* From Sen. Sam McCann’s Facebook page…
For the first time in a century, Downstate will control the outcome of this gubernatorial election.
How?
Because this is NOT a two-way race. Since both the R and the D nominees are both white male billionaires from Chicago who are uber-liberal on the social issues, they will split the Chicago vote - and effectively cancel each other out.
I believe that the three of us will split the Collar Counties equally, or thereabouts.
What that means: If Downstate will stick together; if Downstate will give us the opportunity to lead and to serve by giving us their vote, WE WIN!
If we are not successful in this mission, it will be because Downstate fumbles the ball. In a two-way race, it is impossible for a Downstate conservative to win. But in the paradigm that now exists, we CAN win and we WILL win if we stick together and if People vote their consciences and belief system instead of their party.
If we are not successful, no one can ever again claim that “Chicago controls everything”. If we are not successful, it will be because Downstaters voted for one of the two Chicago candidates. Downstaters, conservatives, moderates and good-government types, here’s the opportunity you’ve been asking for for generations. This is your moment.
Downstate Illinois, and center-right voters in every ZIP code across the state, are being given an amazing opportunity. The opportunity to take the control of Illinois state government away from the politicians who steered us into this ditch (both political parties). The opportunity to wrest that control from those politicians who are only concerned about the next election instead of the next generation.
As I told subscribers on Friday, McCann’s own internal polling has him at 11 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Gov. Rauner was at 29, Pritzker was at 42 and Kash Jackson was polling at 6, with “other” at 1 (800 likely voters polled July 25-29 with MoE of +/-3.5 percent).
In other words, McCann has a long way to go before he even gets onto that path. And Rauner and Pritzker won’t “cancel each other out” in the city. Also, considering how well the Democrats are doing in suburban special elections these days, I’m not sure an equal suburban split between the three is in the cards.
* And if Rauner does run any TV ads about McCann, he’ll undoubtedly do his best to tie him to Speaker Madigan the way he tied Jeanne Ives to the guy. Here’s what the governor told reporters yesterday about Madigan and McCann…
Rauner: But, for example, he recruited McCann. He and, uh, Pritzker and their cronies recruited McCann to run.
Bernie: You don’t know that.
Rauner: Yes. [Laughs]
Bernie: How do you know that?
Rauner: I, I know well who’s, who talked to who and who recruited what.
But, hey, a guy can dream and it’s still a free country.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:21 am
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If it wasn’t for actual voters, policy positions, and the national context, I’d say this is a foolproof plan.
Comment by Blue Bayou Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:26 am
==But, hey, a guy can dream==
McCann or Rauner?
Comment by LXB Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:28 am
” Bernie: You don’t know that”…… best reply to a statement from Rauner ever
Comment by theq Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:29 am
Li-ar.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:30 am
Paradigm is not a situation, it is what structure you employ to think of a situation. Oh well, can’t help myself.
Comment by Professor Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:32 am
===Gov. Rauner was at 29===
Rauner is terribly unlikable.
Even if ya give Rauner the typical MOE… he sits arguably at 33% or so.
Rauner is the incumbent governor, and 2 of 3 voters see no reason to vote for Rauner?
Yikes.
To the Post,
McCann’s path is to be to conservatives and Trunpkins all that Rauner is not, and that’s a very wide range to work.
Rauner signed, arguably, the most liberal abortion bill a state has seen, making it law.
Rauner won’t clarify his signing of the “sanctuary state” law, because Rauner himself knows… explaining it isn’t changing minds, so Rauner eats it.
The conservative/Trumpkins also know that Rauner can’t say “Trump”, or even say he supports “Trump”
The McCann path is probably maxed at 11, but may roll in at the window Rauner can’t have… 5-6% statewide, maybe 11-13 downstate.
Rauner is paranoid, but that doesn’t mean others aren’t after him… and that includes trade labor too.
Raunerism is destroying Illinois. McCann is one treatment to cure Raunerism. The discussion to McCann being able to win… hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:34 am
Brucie, with all due respect – is it possible that Sam is running because he loathes you and he wants to make sure you are humiliated on Nov. 6?
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:34 am
“I, I know well who’s, who talked to who and who recruited what.”
When Bruce’s conspiracy theories are called into question, sputtering and nervous laughter are all he’s got.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:39 am
The only workable path for Sam is the one from his driveway to his front door.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:42 am
Rauner missed his calling. He should have been a writer with his fictionalization of Madigan rivaling Professor Moriarty or Dr Mabuse. Fortunately most voters just laugh at Rauner’s over the top fictionalizations.
Comment by A Jack Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:42 am
Hopefully, there’s a legit Governor’s race poll done after Labor Day including all candidates. Anyone know who might have one scheduled? There seems to be a lack of polling for this race.
Comment by Moby Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:46 am
McCann knows this path is impossible, that’s why he uses spurious reasoning like the major parties “canceling out” in Chicago.
His goal is not to win. His goal is to take votes from Rauner.
The schtick of the most liberal elected Republican in Illinois campaigning calling himself a “Conservative” is the most disingenuous thing in IL politics, which is really saying something.
Comment by Phil King Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:47 am
Once again, when Rauner laughs during a reply that means he’s lying.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:47 am
I see what McCann is trying to do. I am one of those people who, if I thought McCann had a chance, I would consider voting for him. If you can feel like your third party vote isn’t a throw away vote, you have confidence in your vote. But the strategy rarely works. And if it is somewhat successful, does it actually benefit Rauner or Pritzker?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:47 am
===The schtick of the most liberal elected Republican in Illinois campaigning calling himself a “Conservative” is the most disingenuous thing in IL politics, which is really saying something.===
McCann or Rauner?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:49 am
===The schtick of the most liberal elected Republican in Illinois campaigning calling himself a “Conservative” is the most disingenuous thing in IL politics, which is really saying something.===
Rauner is polling at 29%… so you might be too hard on him here…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:49 am
–“I, I know well who’s, who talked to who and who recruited what.”–
Of course, he does. A couple of years ago, he quoted verbatim from a supposed private phone conversation between Cullerton and Madigan, moments after it happened.
Five Eyes SIGINT got nothing on BTIA(TM).
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:51 am
OW,
Look at life time ACU ratings. McCann is not Conservative in any way.
He’s running as a spoiler, nothing else, and if you’ve ever followed IL politics before you’d know Madigan has a hand in this. Saying otherwise is lying to yourself. It’s not a conspiracy.
Ask Jason Gonzales.
Comment by Phil King Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:52 am
I can’t argue with McCann’s logic; he reaches a reasonable conclusion based on his preposterous assumptions.
1. Pritzker and Rauner won’t split the Chicago vote. Won’t even be remotely close.
2. The three of them will not divide the Collars evenly. McCann will be far in the rear view there.
Other than that, spot on.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:54 am
==if you’ve ever followed IL politics before you’d know Madigan has a hand in this.==
You have proof? Otherwise you’re just blowing smoke.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:56 am
LOL @ Phil King. Yeah, sure, the republican who put his signature on a bill to publicly fund abortion is not the most liberal republican. Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt, buddy
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:56 am
I don’t know what is worse, the Guv at 29%, or the Guv at only 23 points ahead of Kash Jackson.
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:57 am
Probably after Labor Day, the Rauner camp will run some ads tying Sammy to MJM and also discussing the Marine thingy and his business “issues.”
That would be my guess.
Bernie, asking those tough questions, wonder what softball he will lob to JB? Maybe, “do you color your hair?”
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:58 am
===…if you’ve ever followed IL politics before you’d know…===
I’m new to all this, so go slow, and use small words.
First, maybe you should read this…
===Rauner is paranoid, but that doesn’t mean others aren’t after him… and that includes trade labor too.===
Even one of the “Lucky Pierre” people said HB40 was so liberal, it couldn’t pass or get signed in California.
… you’re worried about McCann being the liberal, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 9:59 am
Henry Francis, I would love to be your Betty Draper (i.e, move into your oddly gothic home with your mother and gain a lot of weight.)
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:00 am
McCann’s got my vote. I’ve talked many others for into voting for him as well.
He provides a great alternative to voting for a billionaire.
Comment by dominionhinny Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:00 am
If McCann is at 10 or 11% now, I wonder where he will be if Uhline or someone tosses him big money like he did Ives? If Rep. Ives almost knocked off Rauner in the Primary I can imagine McCann doing pretty well versus Governaut.
Comment by Al Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:00 am
As spin to convince people to support his campaign, it’s not too bad. I’m just going to assume he’s smart enough not to buy his own line about Pritzker and Rauner splitting Chicago, or about a three-way split in the collars.
Comment by Nacho Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:10 am
Saw this last night. It’s not highly likely, but it is a path. And if enough people who normally don’t vote show up this time (the silent majority), it might happen. I don’t expect McCann to win, but I do expect him to get north of 15% which would he huge and put a dent in the normal expectations.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:11 am
Yeah, both Rauner and Pritzker are white males! I’ll show them by voting for Sam McCann.
Comment by ImNotTaylorSwift Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:16 am
McCann hopefully can have enough money to remind conservative voters that Rauner is a RINO phony who along with Madigan funded abortions, protected illegal immigrants and caved on the tax hike and budgets. If he negatively impacts the race for Rauner, it’s a wonderful thing.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:18 am
BTW, to the folks tossing around 2 billionaires in the race, there is one.
I’ll buy somebody a big ol double cheeseburger or a horseshoe if Sam gets 15% of the vote.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:19 am
===I’ll buy somebody a big ol double cheeseburger or a horseshoe if Sam gets 15% of the vote.===
Meh. McCann only needs, roughly, 5-7% to inflict maximum damage to Rauner, Ives voters as those 5-7%…
Rauner is a Raunerite, who practices Raunerism.
Rauner bought a brand, with no intention to be a Republican.
Rauner’s own actions spoke to that early on.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:22 am
Wordslinger, I respectfully disagree; Pritzer and Rauner WILL split the Chicago vote. It will be 98-1, not an even split but a split none the less.
Comment by Angry Republican Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:23 am
Madigan has nothing to do with him. I do believe the traditional Republicans are lloking at this as a way to rid themselves of Rauner, punt, and hope to reset with a more likable candidate in 2022.
Comment by Alex Ander Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:25 am
Someone please point me to the comment where I said I support Rauner or that HB40 was a good idea? Seems to be a lot of confused whataboutism going on here.
Not talking about Rauner.
Talking about Sam McCann, the lefty defender of the status quo who’s pretending to be a Conservative.
Comment by Phil King Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:26 am
===the lefty defender of the status quo who’s pretending to be a Conservative.===
Example?
Rauner signed HB40, arguably the most state liberal abortion bill in America, and signed a bill that’s argued to be a “sanctuary state” bill that Rauner won’t clarify it isn’t.
It’s confusing, really. Your concern for McCann, yet, a Democrat running for re-election as governor would love Rauner’s record on social issues.
You’re concerned about McCann?
Hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:30 am
The post is about McCann. But I know how you love to pivot every issue back to the same 3 things you say about Rauner in every comment.
Comment by Phil King Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:33 am
===I’ll buy somebody a big ol double cheeseburger or a horseshoe if Sam gets 15% of the vote.===
Mmmm. Can it be a double butterburger from Culver’s with Swiss cheese?
My dream results, no number just the order:
1. Pritzker (but under 50%)
2. McCann
3. Rauner
4. crazy Jackson
No, I won’t reverse 3 and 4, we have to have SOME standards.
Comment by Streamwood Retiree Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:34 am
===But I know how you love to pivot every issue back to the same 3 things you say about Rauner in every comment.===
Hmm…
=== ===the lefty defender of the status quo who’s pretending to be a Conservative.===
Example?===
You skipped this. Why?
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:36 am
In 2020 statewide races there will be a Conservative Party. McCann will break the threshold of votes needed. Long game folks long game. The Rauner caucus doesn’t deserve a shot at having a US Senator.
Comment by DuPage Bard Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:37 am
===I’ll buy somebody a big ol double cheeseburger or a horseshoe if Sam gets 15% of the vote.===
I had told Rich I would buy him a beer at the RT-66 Motor Show if McCann hadn’t hit 10% by then in a poll. Looks like I’ll get to save my money since he’s at 11% already.
I’ll take a blue cheese burger at The Burger Bar …
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:39 am
==the lefty defender==
You can’t be serious. Besides, when you use things like “lefty” you totally ruin your commentary as anything to be taken seriously.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:47 am
Besides Phil, you’ve yet to provide any evidence whatsoever that McCann’s candidacy is some Madigan conspiracy? Put up or shut up.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:48 am
–Talking about Sam McCann, the lefty defender of the status quo who’s pretending to be a Conservative.–
That’s what Rauner said about Ives, Madigan’s favorite Republican.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:51 am
Are we sure that Jackson’s and “Other” poll numbers didn’t get reversed?
Comment by Arthur Andersen Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 10:54 am
==Talking about Sam McCann, the lefty defender of the status quo who’s pretending to be a Conservative.==
I think you need to talk to some actual Lefties. Prior to 2015, McCann was reviled in liberal circles. He’s a pretty good distillation of everything we find “uncouth”. And even now, it’s really only labor that likes him, though campaign hacks will pump his tires as a way of annoying Rauner.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 11:03 am
The thing at question is McCann. But a sub issue might be the nature of voter suppression. In this race the major candidates are never going to represent my point of view. For me the choices for governor in 18 are as bad as the choices for President in 16. Is it better to vote McCann (maybe because he isn’t a millionaire)or to not votes for the office at all?
Comment by Matt Vernau Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 11:03 am
McCann is trying the Daiber strategy but in the General Election. I think he’s also going to be disappointed by his fellow downstaters.
Comment by Highland IL Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 11:35 am
RNUG, if you win, it is a deal. My office is about a mile from the Burger Bar. Streamwood, you are out of luck unless my car breaks down in your area!!
Willy, thanks for your reply to my post. It had no relevance to what I posted but thanks anyway.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 11:44 am
=== ===I’ll buy somebody a big ol double cheeseburger or a horseshoe if Sam gets 15% of the vote.===
Meh. McCann only needs, roughly, 5-7% to inflict maximum damage to Rauner, Ives voters as those 5-7%…===
The rest…wasn’t about you or your comment. It was about something else commented.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 12:16 pm
The Poshard/Blagojevich strategy. Not saying it will work this time, but if unions put some money behind McCann might make it interesting. No one thought Ives would get 48%.
Comment by Put the fun in unfunded Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 12:20 pm
–Since both the R and the D nominees are both white male…–
Nice to see Diana Rickert found work after NOT getting fired from that Rauner gig..
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 12:27 pm
–Phil is right, somebody could post what a win the Cubs had last night, and you pivot to Rauner is unlikable and that is why the Cubs won.–
I bet he’d post the Cubs didn’t play last night.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 12:47 pm
(Tips cap to - wordslinger -)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 12:59 pm
Willy and Word, rubbing lotion on each other’s backs, how cute.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 1:32 pm
It’s going to be a weird year. Sam does have a base of sorts from his district. The question is will they stick with him? And will the statewide Ives contingent continue to snub Rauner and throw their support behind McCann?
The problem is Sam has his share of baggage (and then some), and you can be assured we are going to hear about every piece of it before November. It won’t affect his supporters; they know how hard he works his district. And Sam is a likeable guy in person. Plus he’s doing his best to emulate Dan Walker and meet lots and lots of people. That’s really his path … one on one interaction. But I suspect the anticipated attack ads from Rauner will keep a lot of people from voting for him.
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 1:50 pm
I’m guessing the path to Blue Bayou?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 1:57 pm
Bruce Rauner is white? All along I thought he was Swedish.
Comment by blue dog dem Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 2:45 pm
The only thing McCann lays out is his palm. He knows he is being used and is being paid for his services accordingly. Saddest part is he’s not smart enough to be embarrassed by this.
Comment by Flat Bed Ford Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 2:49 pm
Flat Bed —
Receipts or take it back.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 5:13 pm
Sam McCann’s baggage and $5 million dollars still weren’t able to take him out in 2016 primary.
What makes you think the folks statewide care if the folks in his district were hit with $5 million in negative opposition on Sam and he still won?
Comment by Frank talks Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 5:21 pm
If Sam ever went to Chicago he’d know that Rauner won’t get 25% there.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 5:37 pm
Soccermom, you can be my Betty.
Just let me run it past mother.
(Rocky is going to love you)
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 8:40 pm
Frank, different ballgame. 2016 was Tball, this is MLB
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Aug 14, 18 @ 8:49 pm