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* This is a bit weird, but whatevs. Numbers is numbers…
Tonight, we will launch the first of nearly 100 live NYT Upshot/Siena polls of the fight for Congress.
For the first time, we'll publish the results live in real time, respondent by respondent.
We start this evening in CA-48, KY-6, IL-6, MN-8, IL-12https://t.co/R4EbBmvGM9— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) September 6, 2018
That’s Peter Roskam and Mike Bost if you don’t know the districts.
* From the linked story…
Over the next two months, The New York Times will talk to more voters than ever before. It starts tonight, when we’ll publish the first New York Times Upshot/Siena College polls of the most competitive battlegrounds in the fight for Congress.
But there’s a twist. None of these polls are finished. One hasn’t even begun.
We’re doing it live.
For the first time, we’ll publish our poll results and display them in real time, from start to finish, respondent by respondent. No media organization has ever tried something like this, and we hope to set a new standard of transparency. You’ll see the poll results at the same time we do. You’ll see our exact assumptions about who will turn out, where we’re calling and whether someone is picking up. You’ll see what the results might have been had we made different choices.
You can watch the 6th District get polled live by clicking here and the data on the 12th is here. Scroll down and you’ll see constantly updated crosstabs.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:17 pm
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Comment by Almost the weekend Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:20 pm
Without the wagering. Good thing I didn’t have any plans for tonight.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:21 pm
“This is only an exhibition. This is also a competition, but please, no wagering.”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:26 pm
Fascinating.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:46 pm
Do you think that the pollster has the Green Party candidate in the poll? I bet they pull at least 5% for the 4th consecutive time…….
Comment by One of Three Puppets Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:56 pm
– “..live in real time” –
I like this approach and will be following these races through the evening. Also sent this link to an old friend in KY6 who is very involved in the McGrath campaign.
Comment by illini Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 6:57 pm
The “didn’t answers” are winning the day”.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 7:05 pm
It’s an interesting approach to polling. But making their calls at dinner time and during the going home rush hour commute in the central time zone in order to have a dramatic “live” prime time result for the IL 12th was probably not the best thought out plan.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 7:12 pm
Sorry –my comment above was obviously meant to address IL 6. which is what we are all looking at.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 7:17 pm
===calls at dinner time and during the going home rush hour commute===
That’s when lots of polling calls are made. They did several before this evening. From the looks of things, I’m wondering if they’ll finish tonight.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 7:32 pm
Heh, so far this has about all the drama of the opening Al Capone’s vault. The fact that with considerably fewer calls placed there, there about the same amount of responders in Bost’s district as there are in Roskam’s says a lot about how far people in the Chicago area go to block or screen calls these days.
Comment by Responsa Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 7:43 pm
So far in Ill 6 and 12, 70% of the respondents have been reached by their cell phones. Good samples?
Comment by illini Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 8:04 pm
Over 33,000 calls and under 500 responses? Is that a normal response?
Comment by Bruce (no not him) Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 10:09 pm
Fascinating. The data show these are both close races, tossups really, and I think we’d all agree that the numbers look right, given the margin of error. Today.
It’s game-on now so buckle up campers. Roskam and Bost are still favored as incumbents, but both of these are going down to the wire. I love it.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Sep 6, 18 @ 11:41 pm
I feel sorry for pollsters.
I don’t know anyone under 50 that has a landline. And I don’t know anyone under 40 that answers a call from an unknown caller.
And given the venom in politics today, nearly everyone will only discuss politics with only their closest friends. Can’t believe these same people would willingly give their opinion to an unsolicited call.
Comment by Downstate Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 8:11 am
Have always wanted to see real time vote counts during election day.
Like watching a sporting event you would always know where your “team” was during the game. Might make GOTV really fun to be part of, especially if your candidate is trailing late in the game (day).
Comment by Give Me A Break Friday, Sep 7, 18 @ 8:33 am