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* Oy, that pic…
New (and free to read) from @HotlineJosh: If your campaign is doing any of these things, you're probably in trouble. https://t.co/DrqG4kBxXX
— Ben Pershing (@benpershing) September 18, 2018
* Here’s the National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar on the five biggest signs that a candidate is headed to defeat…
1. Apologizing in a campaign ad.
That one has no relevance to Illinois… Yet. We’ll see if the governor’s campaign reset speech is turned into a spot.
* This one does apply, as Kraushaar explains…
2. Admitting you’re going to change.
Elected officials who don’t want to apologize take the next-closest step: Explain how they’ll govern differently.
Embattled Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner is a case study of this crisis strategy. Last week, he pledged to listen more to differing views instead of forging through with unpopular reforms. “I’m not perfect, but I’ve grown and I’m still committed to doing what’s right for Illinois. I humbly ask for another four years to finish the job we started — to save our state,” Rauner said.
It’s no coincidence that Rauner, a well-financed candidate, is polling at a dismal 30 percent after barely winning his primary in March. Barring a miracle, he’s headed to defeat against Democrat J.B. Pritzker.
* More…
3. Claiming all politics is still local.
The reality is Tip O’Neill’s maxim no longer applies: All local politics is now national. Members of Congress who focus on districtwide accomplishments will be running against a wave of national attacks that resonate more with constituents.
Rauner has famously been reluctant to even use Trump’s name, despite withering criticism. His opponent, Democrat J.B. Pritzker, just released an ad that features a television reporter repeatedly asking Rauner about Trump, only to be chided by Rauner to “focus” on issues affecting Illinois.
* Next…
4. Denying the polling.
I was listening to a radio interview the other day and Rauner called the latest poll showing him 17 points down “Baloney,” even though polling has consistently had him trailing by large amounts since June.
* And finally…
5. Anger about lack of outside support.
Remember how Rauner was complaining during the Illinois State Fair about how more people need to “chip in” and help him pay for this campaign?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:12 pm
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That is some grade A tasty goodness. Love that they used Rauner’s pic as the cover.
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:17 pm
===The reality is Tip O’Neill’s maxim no longer applies: All local politics is now national. Members of Congress who focus on districtwide accomplishments will be running against a wave of national attacks that resonate more with constituents.===
Ugh.
Rauner, without national themes or influences, is trailing by 17, is underwater by 22+ points and can’t crack 31% in polling against an opponent or in his approvals.
You want to go “National”… do it in October.
Right now, Rauner, without Trump (in a state Trump list by 16) is trailing by solid double digits.
Keep the foot on the gas… about Rauner only… until October.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:18 pm
I hear you, OW, but for Congressional races, I’ve voted with national politics in mind for many years. If there is a Rodney Davis, there is a Paul Ryan. Similarly, Rs successfully demonize Nancy Pelosi. For the gov race, obviously, it may not apply at all or can wait until October, as you say.
Comment by JIbba Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:24 pm
- JIbba -
It’s all good.
Congressional races are different animals. They are also not statewide in Illinois.
All good. Understood.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:26 pm
OW - In fairness I think the all politics is National has more to do with the congressional races than governor. And on that count it does have a bit more relevance particularly if you see the congressional races as a chance to support or limit the President’s agenda.
I suspect we will see more ads from Pritzker linking Rauner to Trump but it probably has more to do with getting the base to turnout.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:26 pm
Rauner is the poster boy for:
“How not to govern”
“Why you don’t lie to voters”
“How to drive your state into junk bond status”
“Why you should listen to successful governors”
“How not to hire staff”
“Why you should never burn down compromise bridges”
“Why you should never claim that the speaker of the house is a criminal”
“How not to get reelected”
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:26 pm
“Apologizing in a campaign ad.”
When this finally does happen, I sure hope it features Bruce and Diana sitting on the couch again.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:37 pm
This is like another confirmation that GovJunk is on the ropes. He must be savin’ it for the debate….tee hee…like more than a handful will watch.
He may get #1 Yet, but first he must understand what he was supposed to be doin’ for the last 4 years. Then he can realize he made mistakes — aka deaths at Quincy — and do the tearful ad.`
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 12:44 pm
Who spelled humbly for him?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 1:19 pm
Will he bring back all the g’s he’s dropped over the years?
Comment by Trapped in the 'burbs Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 1:24 pm
“A good rule of thumb: A well-known incumbent should be polling near 50 percent to have a good chance of winning.” No further comment necessary.
Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 1:52 pm
“Apologizing in a campaign ad.”
Man, I can’t even envision what that would look like coming from Rauner. The Happy Days episode in which Fonzie tries to apologize to Richie but can’t bring himself to say the word “wrong” comes to mind.
Comment by Cubs in '16 Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Is there a betting line for when we’ll see Bruce in a sweater like Rahm?
Comment by Precinct Captain Tuesday, Sep 18, 18 @ 3:29 pm