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* From the DCCC…
BRENDAN KELLY IN DEAD HEAT WITH CONGRESSMAN MIKE BOST
Democrat Brendan Kelly is within one point of two-term Congressman Mike Bost, according to the latest DCCC Analytics poll of IL-12 voters (Kelly 41%, Bost 42%, Auxier 8%, 8% undecided). Even in a two-way matchup between Kelly and Bost, Kelly is within 2 points of Bost, with Kelly at 44% and Bost at 46% (10% undecided). He leads Bost by 5 points in the St. Louis media market (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%, 9% undecided), which makes up two-thirds of the district. He also leads among women (42% to 39%, Auxier 8%), voters under 50 (49% to 37%, Auxier 5%), and college graduates (45% to 42%, Auxier 7%).BOST’S DAMAGED IMAGE MAKES HIM VULNERABLE
Voters’ middling to negative views of Mike Bost and his performance suggest that he is highly vulnerable. Mike Bost is underwater in the St. Louis media market, despite Bost’s campaign and the Congressional Leadership Fund spending heavily on broadcast and cable here. In the St. Louis market, 37% of voters have an unfavorable view of Bost (35% favorable), 39% disapprove of how he is handling his job as congressman (34% approve), and he trails Kelly by 5 points (Kelly 44%, Bost 39%, Auxier 8%). These numbers indicate that Brendan Kelly’s aggressive advertising, which hits Bost for being a career politician who has voted to give a tax handout to his donors and to gut health care protections, has damaged Bost’s image.
The story is similar in the Paducah media market, which should be Bost’s base, where Kelly’s strategy of investing early on broadcast in this area likely helped contribute to Bost’s 32% unfavorable rating and 34% job disapproval.
In a year like this, if you’re the Republican you wanna be ahead by at least 5 points right now (although this Kavanaugh controversy could shake things up, we just don’t know yet). It’s been really ugly in that district, and I’m betting it’s gonna be a lot more so by November.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 2:57 pm
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Kelly is running the strongest campaign out of the four competitive congressionals.
Not surprised he’s pulled it this close in Trump country.
The man is a force.
Comment by anon Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:06 pm
==In a year like this, if you’re the Republican you wanna be ahead by at least 5 points right now==
Generally, yes, but I’m not sure if that’s necessary in a district like Bost’s. I bet the undecideds like Trump quite a bit.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:08 pm
The Bost Campaign should donate about $100,000 grand to Randy Auxier’s campaign.
Comment by Saluki Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:09 pm
In 2018, does it still mean something when the incumbent is below 50% in October?? Just asking
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:10 pm
It’s a tough district down there, and Bost’s been around a while. But Kelly’s running a smart campaign.
Looks like Bost has finally met his match against a well funded, energetic challenger. It’ll be an interesting October.
Comment by Geek on Fleek Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:20 pm
Mike won by 15 two years ago. He’s gotta be feeling this heat. Kelly’s got the energy on his side…yikes!
Comment by Cali Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:27 pm
Bost wins by 1%. The boys at the coffee shop are never wrong……except maybe that Cubs v. Brewers game yesterday.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:49 pm
Not surprised. Bost hasn’t been up with ads the St Louis media market in the last week to 10 days. Lackluster fundraising taking its toll in the homestretch when he needs to be going full bore.
Comment by Unreliable Sources Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:50 pm
What was that, a budget poll?
I’d only pay for polls showing me 10 points ahead. Who’d think this is worth announcing?
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 3:54 pm
- Arsenal - is right. A one-point lead in polling is more survivable for Bost than it would be for Roskam.
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 4:16 pm
=== Bost hasn’t been up with ads the St Louis media market in the last week to 10 days. ===
Yes he has. Running baloney ads calling Kelly soft on crime. He’s also running one with the GOP magic words - Pelosi/Madigan.
Go Kelly.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 4:33 pm
=== Yes he has. Running baloney ads calling Kelly soft on crime. ===
That’s Congressional Leadership Fund, Paul Ryan’s group. Bost’s campaign has gone dark and is obviously short on cash in the home strech.
Comment by Unreliable Sources Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 4:38 pm
I wish his campaign was dark. I just saw the Bost Pelosi/Madigan ad today.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Oct 2, 18 @ 4:59 pm
As in any close election, turnout will be key. At least in the Metro East area, the energy in organizing seems to be in Kelly’s favor. Plus, with Bost now running away from one of only two debates, he’s looking even weaker than ever. When the first “debate” finally happens, people are going to realize just what a coward Bost has been.
Comment by Shtemlo Wednesday, Oct 3, 18 @ 8:56 am