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* DCCC…
In yet another clear sign of Democratic momentum, FEC filing reports show that all four Illinois Democratic congressional challengers in DCCC-targeted districts raised significantly more money than their incumbent opponents in the third financial quarter. These Democrats head into the final stretch with the necessary resources to deliver their message. In all but one district, Democratic challengers out-raised their Republican opponents by a 2-1 margin, and the only exception, Sean Casten, still out-raised incumbent Rep. Peter Roskam by more than $1 million.
“Democratic candidates across Illinois are benefitting from widespread grassroots support and a wave of high energy and voter enthusiasm. They have eliminated the cash advantages incumbents usually have and will head into the final stretch with the resources to deliver their powerful messages and respond to the nasty, misleading attacks from their Republican opponents and the special interest groups that support them,” said DCCC spokesperson Sean Savett.
IL-06:
Sean Casten raised just shy of $2.7 million, nearly double Peter Roskam’s $1.4 million haul. Meanwhile, Casten has widened his lead in recent polling to 5 points, the Cook Political Report moved IL-06 to its “Lean Democrat” column, and rumors abound that national Republicans are considering cutting Roskam off.
IL-12:
Brendan Kelly raised more than $1.1 million, twice as much as Mike Bost, who raised only $552k. Kelly’s Q3 total is the most amount of money EVER raised by a candidate for Congress in IL-12, and he has now outraised the incumbent Bost in all five quarters he has been in the race. Kelly is also safely within the margin of error in polling, trailing Bost by 1 point in three straight polls.
IL-13:
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan raised nearly $1.7 million in Q3 from over 10,000 individual contributions. That’s roughly $1 million more than Rodney Davis, who raised only $700k, and has now had his cash on hand advantage virtually erased. Recent polling shows Londrigan trails by just 1 point, making it one of the closest races in the country.
IL-14:
Lauren Underwood raised more than $2 million, more than 4 times Randy Hultgren’s total of $455k. This is the third consecutive filing period Underwood has out-raised her Republican incumbent opponent, and she now has an approximately $600k cash on hand advantage heading into the final stretch.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:27 am
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We should probably wait until we actually get into the end zone before spiking the football. If dollars were votes, we could all sleep in on election day.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:30 am
Just 2 of these flip
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:31 am
What a difference two years makes, the Davis race says it all.
Comment by Almost the weekend Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:32 am
Self-congratulatory bragging by DC crews on Oct. 16 is so important to winning Congressional elections.
Get over yourselves. Go knock on some doors or make some phone calls if you want to be useful. The hay ain’t in the barn yet.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:33 am
= Just 2 of these flip =
I would set an over/under at 1.5 flips. Casten probably should be favored to beat Roskam at this point, but the other races are much trickier for the Dems.
Comment by cover Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:37 am
Guess it’s all over.
Pat yourselves on the back, you are 3 weeks out, but enjoy your victory now.
They don’t seat members who raised the most cash, they seat members who got the most votes.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:37 am
Impressive, but is any of it funding coordinated GOTV with JB or the state house and senate campaigns? Roskam’s district in particular overlaps several of the targeted GA seats. Or are they just buying tv time and doing mail?
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:44 am
Sabato, Cook and Real Clear have Lean R in the Davis/Londrigan race
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:45 am
No sarcasm here: This is awesome news for Team D.
Yes, of course it’s the votes that matter, but if the results were flipped, Dems like me would be griping about how weak the DCCC is. Outraising all 4 incumbents and getting stable campaigns up in all 4 districts is A+ performance. These challengers have the money to close the deal; can they do it?
I’ve volunteered for Casten a few times now, and both outposts I canvassed from had competent staffers paid for by the DCCC. Their entire purpose is to raise money and help with campaign infrastructure.
No one knows for sure which voters will turn out, but I like the odds of a 55 to 65 seat Blue Wave.
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 10:58 am
Clay, your party did the R’s a favor with the Kavanaugh fiasco. It will show in early November.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:07 am
- Pick a Name - Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:07 am:
Clay, your party did the R’s a favor with the Kavanaugh fiasco. It will show in early November.
Feels like ages ago.
When I knocked doors for Casten, I spoke to 2 Republican primary-voting women in DuPage county who said they were voting against Roskam. Something’s different.
Comment by State Sen. Clay Davis Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:14 am
If Betsy’s got the money will be interested if they buy media in the Springfield market. I’m getting bombarded with Rodney’s tv, radio and direct mail.
Comment by LTSW Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:21 am
Looking at CD 12. Notice that Bost has $698k left to spend and that Kelly has $224k to spend over the last month of the campaign. Kelly spent $535k on media back on June 20th to put him within reach. Does he have enough juice to to close the $500k gap in the final month? Remember this is a long campaign cycle and you can run on fumes in the final month while your opponent managed his finances better. Gonna be interesting. The fundraising is impressive, the management of the money may be less impressive unless it keeps coming.
Comment by One of Three Puppets Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:31 am
–your party did the R’s a favor with the Kavanaugh fiasco. It will show in early November.–
Isn’t it adorable to watch them grow up and be able to parrot the noises they hear on the TV box?
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:34 am
What’s with the bragging?
I wouldn’t count out any incumbents this early. The trend hasn’t been their friend.
Is the DCCC trying to tell their challengers that if they all lose, it isn’t the DCCC’s fault?
Not smart.
No incumbent is going to give up over this.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 11:56 am
wordslinger’s post at 10:33 deserves an “Oscar”.
Comment by Anon 7 Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:06 pm
I’ve always said that you don’t need to spend the most. You just need enough.
This will be an interesting test of my assertion.
Having said that I see lots of casten ads, much fewer Roskam.
Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:14 pm
Word, if I watched much tv, possibly. But. I. Don’t.
You are welcome.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:35 pm
===But. I. Don’t.===
Well, you learned it somewhere.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:36 pm
I live in 13 in Springfield. Seen little of Betsy around here. 1 or 2 mailers. Very few signs. Lots of Davis. I know Springfield is not exactly a Dem strong hold. Hopefully enough elsewhere in the district to over come Springfield. Not a single person from either campaign has knocked on my door though. It should be a interesting finish.
Comment by Union thug Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:37 pm
Hooray, we spent…more?
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:53 pm
Last night debate the audience was 80% Londrigan supporters at least. Rodney walked into the room and no one took note. Betsy got a standing ovation. Betsys monies are coming from donors in district, Rodney not so much has to depend on the special money coming to save him, the enthusiasm gap is huge and betsys ground game is starting to steamroll. Davis depends on being the incumbent who wrapped himself all around trump. In 3 weeks we will see the result.
Comment by Truthteller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:53 pm
==Clay, your party did the R’s a favor with the Kavanaugh fiasco. It will show in early November.==
That the R’s are trying to make this election about Kavanaugh is a tacit admission that they’re conceding the House to try and save the Senate. But I’m sure this will be every bit the disaster for D’s that “crumbs” was.
Comment by Nacho Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 12:54 pm
The poll in HD 13 was an internal poll. The last real poll I saw had Davis up 13%. They may have stack the crowd at the debate, but her ground game is woefully lacking. Davis wins this by a good margin.
Comment by Retired Educator Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 1:42 pm
===last real poll I saw had Davis up 13%===
lol
Half the polling memo was lopped off in the tweet, they wouldn’t answer any questions about methodology, some of the responses were like two weeks old or something and it was done for a GOP group. But, yeah, that’s better than an internal poll.
lol
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 1:44 pm
=they don’t seat members who raised the most cash=
But money helps you get your message out which translates into votes.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 1:51 pm
==They may have stack the crowd at the debate, but her ground game is woefully lacking.==
Lacking compared to Davis? Londrigan is hosting more events, appearing at town halls, generating far more positive social media coverage and outraising her opponent. Where is the evidence Davis has the better ground game?
Comment by lollinois Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 1:52 pm
===hosting more events… Where is the evidence Davis has the better ground game===
Events are not a ground game.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 1:53 pm
“rumors abound that national Republicans are considering cutting Roskam off”
If purported rumor comes to pass, it will be the most surprising occurrence of the 2016 election.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 2:00 pm
MrJM, you may be a couple of years off.
And in a response to “you must have learned it somewhere” let’s see, there is twitter, Linkedin, FB, radio, gut feel, conversations with people, etc.
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 16, 18 @ 2:48 pm
Pick a name,
Rich permits me two tyops per year.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Oct 17, 18 @ 8:47 am
crap
Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Oct 17, 18 @ 8:53 am