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* AP…
The tough-talking Rauner, a former private equity investor known for his open-collared shirts, giant belt buckles and Harley-Davidson motorcycle, finds himself in danger of becoming only the third Illinois governor since 1900 – after Democrat Edward Dunne in 1916 and Republican Richard Ogilvie in 1972 – to serve one 4-year term but lose re-election. Polls have shown him trailing Pritzker by double digits.
Only two incumbents have lost by more than 10 percentage points since the 19th century – in 1948 and 1960.
Double-digit losses by incuments are obviously very rare.
* The Question: Your over/under number for the final margin in the governor’s race?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:21 pm
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9
Comment by Question Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:24 pm
12.5
Comment by ABC Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:26 pm
13
Comment by Reality Check Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:27 pm
7.5
Comment by walker Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:28 pm
In fairness, Dunne was elected due to a split in the Republican Party between the Regulars and the Bull Moose Progressives. Dunne was on borrowed time once the Republicans reconciled.
10.5.
Comment by Practical Politics Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:28 pm
Pritzger by 12
Ogilvie at least knew he was taking one for the team, passing the tax bill everyone knew Illinois needed but were too cowardly to enact. He left the state in better shape than he found it.
Rauner’s legacy?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm
Pritzker by 16, bigger margin is thanks to McCann
Comment by Rutro Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm
11. About 400,000 votes.
Comment by The Snowman Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm
JB by 13.2
With 100% chance Rauner’s people all blame President Trump.
Comment by Chris P. Bacon Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:29 pm
12
Comment by DeseDemDose Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:30 pm
Been on 9 for two years. Final answer.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:36 pm
might have to go as high as +15 for me to take the under cause of the 3rd party candidates
Comment by SweetLou86 Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:36 pm
I am going to say about 9 but I hope more. Again another conservative who cannot wait to get a new governor and I hope so. One never really knows how it will play out crazy things happen.
Comment by cler dcn Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:38 pm
JB by 13.5
Comment by South Sider Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:38 pm
14. The question is: does Rauner come in 2nd or 3rd? I’m pretty sure Winderweedle/McCann collectivly out do him- the question is how they perform individually.
Comment by West Sider Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:39 pm
I’m going to side closely with the polls we have seen over the months… Therefore I say JB by 17.
Comment by Real Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:40 pm
14
Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:40 pm
23
Comment by doofusguy Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:41 pm
J.B. by 16
Comment by Can Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm
Lucky number 13
Comment by Suburban Mom Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm
13.5. Take the over. Leave the Governor’s Mansion.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:44 pm
I’m thinking 14.5 as the “number”… should get play from both sides of it.
The goal is the House makes money on the “number”, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:45 pm
J.B. 15 pts
Comment by Stones Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:46 pm
15
Depressed GOP turnout due to Rauner being on the top of the ticket spell disaster for the GOP in downballot races in the suburbs.
Comment by train111 Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:46 pm
JB by 12.
Comment by Stark Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:49 pm
I’m saying 6, and that’s being generous to Rauner. Given some of the self inflicted wounds with the Pritzker campaign, and the lack of more recent polling data, I don’t want to see folks take a Rauner loss for granted.
Comment by Fixer Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:50 pm
9.5. The bigger debate is the AG race. Can we ask that tomorrow?
Comment by Not It Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:50 pm
9. JB tops 51% & Rauner gets 42%. Sam & Kash split the rest.
Comment by Hyperbolic Chamber Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:51 pm
16 - Pritzker (Rich. You didn’t ask us to say who would win - lol)
Is anyone enthusiastic about Rauner? I figured once he lost the bikers all he had left was Diana.
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:52 pm
O/U 14
- JBT got 39% in 2006 and people liked/loved her
- Trump got 39% in 2016
- Hard to see Rauner higher than 38% given that and a 3-4 way race.
Comment by beach panda Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:52 pm
5 percent margin to Pritzker
Comment by Maestro Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:53 pm
13
Any chance Rauner had to make it single digits vanished with the Trump “snub”. The President is saying to his people: “I’m embarrassing this guy, I want you to embarrass him too.”
Comment by DarkHorse Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:57 pm
What’s the chance that ck will be Rauner’s housemaid in Italy?
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:59 pm
13.5-J.B.
Comment by Les Nessman Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 12:59 pm
11. Have seen a real lack of Rauner yard signs here in DuPage County.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:02 pm
9.5 and afterward Rauner will still claim it as a personal victory for him.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:04 pm
11 percent.
McCann gets 5.1 percent from hardcore right and the generally disaffected. JB runs well in traditional Democratic areas, picks up suburban swing voters and some fed up downstaters. 58.5 percent. Rauner gets 36.4 percent from downstate and Republican loyalists. That’s a hellacious 22.1 percent difference, so my over/under is 11 percent.
(BTW, I got these numbers very scientifically at the bottom of a glass while talking to a mid-state bartender.)
Comment by Flapdoodle Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm
15.8
Comment by Anon0091 Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm
I’ll go ten. I remember being here in 2014 and all the comments about Rauner having no ground game on election day, etc. etc. and he over-performed by 5 points. So I’m going to take 5 off what I hope.
Comment by lakeside Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:08 pm
Pritzker in a landslide. 20.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:09 pm
I’m going with +4 for Pritzker. I haven’t see any polls since the lawsuit stuff, so I’m discounting a Pritzker route. If the goal of an odds maker is to make money, I’d feel pretty confident with that number.
Pritzker: 48
Rauner: 44
McCann: 6
Others: 2
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:11 pm
7
Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:15 pm
I’m going with JB by 12. That was my jersey number in all sports I played so many years ago.
Comment by illini Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:17 pm
It’s going to be closer than people think. Pritzker wins by 6.
Comment by WSJ Paywall Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:18 pm
16.5 As most here know, undecided partisans would usually fall back in line by election day. However, I think this year a decent number of Republicans who are mad at/disenchanted with Rauner see the writing on the wall and either don’t vote for anyone for governor, or vote for Jackson or McCann, which will keep the spread wider than would otherwise be the case.
Comment by Anon324 Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:18 pm
16
Comment by JMJ Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:23 pm
Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election. He was appointed and only served a portion of another term.
Comment by Rail Splitter Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:23 pm
JB wins by 8
Comment by Sine Die Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:24 pm
11
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm
===Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election. He was appointed and only served a portion of another term.===
(Sigh)
“Pat Quinn served one 4 year term and then lost re-election.”
While true, you negate that Quinn served 2 years, faced the voters, and won his own 4 year term.
“He was appointed”
Quinn won election as the Lt. Governor. Constitutionally, after the impeachment, Quinn was sworn in as governor.
“and only served a portion of another term.”
… as the constitution says, and, again, after 2 years, was re-elected.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:27 pm
Rauner - 36%
Pritzker - 56%
McCann/Cash - 8%
Topinka got 37% in 2006, people forget that because Whitney did so well.
Pendulum swung back toward GOP after Blago’s removal and Quinn’s failure. It is swinging back hard the other way now, with national winds to bolster it.
Comment by Values Voters Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:28 pm
Pritzker by 17 points
Comment by Flynn's Mom Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:32 pm
Pritzker +9. I think both GOP and Democratic nominee won’t cross the 47% threshold
Comment by Andy Byars Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:32 pm
JB by 6 and he doesn’t get over 50%.
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:33 pm
Not sure where to put this. I will say Rauner will get 40% of the vote. Third parties will get anywhere from 2%-10%. So let’s split the difference and say they get 6%. I guess that makes my number 14. My instincts tell me that number might be a little high. But I really don’t see Rauner much higher than 40%.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:34 pm
Pritzker 53
Rauner 37
McCann 7
Kash 3
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:34 pm
===He was appointed===
He wasn’t appointed. Constitutional order of succession.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:38 pm
In a shocking upset….
Rauner 44
Pritzker 43
Jackson 9
McCann 4
Comment by Saluki Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:38 pm
JB by 9. Pritzker 50, Rauner 41, McCann 6, Winderweedle 3.
Comment by TopHatMonocle Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:39 pm
===If the goal of an odds maker is to make money===
The goal is to keep as much money as possible. You’d attract a lot of bets with that number, for sure. I don’t know you’d keep a lot.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:40 pm
Go big or go home; Pritzker beats Rauner by three touchdowns (21).
Comment by Angry Republican Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:41 pm
Pritzker by 12%
Comment by btowntruthfromforgottonia Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:52 pm
== I don’t know you’d keep a lot.==
Yeah, maybe bump it up to 6 or 8. As you said though, double digit losses by an incumbent are pretty rare. I’d feel comfortable taking the under on most everyone else who poster.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:52 pm
J.B. 14.5
58.5 Vs (30.5 R + 11/comb)
Diana is chilling the champagne. And rearranging the chairs on the back porch of the mansion.
Comment by Langhorne Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 1:53 pm
13.5
Comment by theq Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:11 pm
13%
Comment by strawman Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:19 pm
4%
Rauner Beat Quinn by 3.9. While Rauner is not as competent as Quinn, I don’t see JB as Better than Rauner 4 year ago.
That combined with the Trump factor that I believe will push republicans down state to larger margins lets Rauner stay close.
At the end of the day, no one who didn’t vote for Quinn is in love with Pritzker, so where are you really going to get double digits?
It could be the perfect storm for Madigan to have a governor who wins by historic margin with less than 45% of the vote in a 3 way race.
Comment by the Patriot Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:21 pm
9ish and I don’t think McCann gets 5, though he may get close. I think the r’s who pay attention enough to be angry with Rauner will realize that McCann isn’t real and they hold their nose and come home (or they realize that unlike Jeanne, McCann really is the Madigan plant, and they dislike Madigan more than they dislike Rauner, either way same result). Kash, despite his baggage, hasn’t gotten as much coverage and I think it benefits him and he picks up some of the anti-Rauner r’s who can’t bring themselves to come home, and he over-performs compared to the polls.
If I’m wrong on McCann, I still believe Pritzker doesn’t get more of a margin than 11.
Comment by Em Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:28 pm
JB’s 9 + 5 from National wave = 14. Remember, the National wave took out Quinn and re-elected Blago.
Comment by Smitty Irving Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:33 pm
JB +13 and over 50%
And honestly, if I saw that number on the board, I’d take the over, but that’s where I’m at today.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:40 pm
Drove from Spi to Nokomis last Saturday over the blue roads. Saw no Rauner signs though plenty for other Repubs and for JB and McCann. Striking. JB by 14.
Comment by d.p.gumby Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:48 pm
Rauner -20. It’s going to be a huge democratic turnout, and this new deluge of voters don’t do polls, so the Pritzker lead is even bigger than the polls forecast.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:49 pm
Pritzker will win by a comfortable margin. I am always interested in the counties won. Quinn/Brady winner was with only four counties out of 102….which included Cook of course.
Comment by Top of the State Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 2:50 pm
Rauner by 1
Comment by occasional quipper Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:00 pm
11 is a good number for this rout, someone better get occasional quipper some tums
Comment by Elliott Ness Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:10 pm
JB +20 or more because I don’t know which group would vote for Rauner.
Comment by Barrington Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:18 pm
No worries Elliot Ness… I’m just the guy in the office pool who looks at all the other predictions and picks something off the wall so that I look like a genius if I’m root but will simply be forgotten if I’m wrong.
Comment by occasional quipper Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:20 pm
oops… root = right
Comment by occasional quipper Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:20 pm
There is no recent poll, to gauge how the latest events leached through the public mind. I see in polling sites how other governor races are polled frequently (maybe because they’re so close?).
I think it will be closer than polls indicate. For some reason, I keep seeing Pritzker by 6-7, like in my mind, man. But I’m terrible at prognosticatin’ and have less confidence because of 2014 and 2016.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:21 pm
The most recent polls have shown Pritzker up 16-22, so I’ll split the difference and say 19. That also seems consistent with Rauner being less popular than Trump, who lost by 17.
Comment by Nacho Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:30 pm
Gosh, we all forgot Dan Walker…
Rauner loses by 14+%
Comment by Fav human Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:42 pm
8.5
Comment by OneMan Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:43 pm
===we all forgot Dan Walker===
Walker lost a primary, this is a general. Nobody forgot anything.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:51 pm
JB wins by 15 around 55. There are so many odd turnout possibilities I have little confidence in this, but I think 15 is the minimum difference between the two.
Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:56 pm
===National wave took out Quinn and re-elected Blago.
Blago won reelection by 11 points with Rich Whitney pulling in 10. That wasn’t just the wave–he actually lost of lot of liberal voters and just fed up voters to random liberal white guy with a beard.
Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 3:58 pm
JB by 10
Comment by Boone's is Back Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:01 pm
===random liberal white guy with a beard===
IIRC, his name on the ballot in Chicago for a time was “Rich Whitey.”
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:03 pm
===IIRC, his name on the ballot in Chicago for a time was “Rich Whitey.”
Purposeful or not the most on the nose typo ever.
Comment by Archpundit Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:10 pm
16
52/36/9/3
Comment by Solia Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:24 pm
I’m with fixer: 5 or 6
Comment by Dr. Pepper Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:46 pm
I threw this comment thread into Excel. Our crowdsource estimate:
Median = 13
Average = 12.1
Throw out the bottom 25% and top 25%, what’s our range? 9-14.5
Comment by Robert the Bruce Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 4:56 pm
Pritzker by 15 if I were making book.
It depends on how well McCann closes.
McCann seems to have burned the Rauner RINO message in, I would have liked to see him make an appeal that conservatives need to send a message to the GOP establishment not to tread on the party’s traditional values.
Will McCann be at 4 or at 7? I don’t know.
But I don’t see Rauner cracking 40% at this point, and I think Pritzker breaks 50% pretty easily.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:33 pm
JB +11 and 55%
Comment by Illinoised Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 5:38 pm
JB by 7
Comment by Eric Zorn Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 6:06 pm
9%
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 6:20 pm
McCann pull large # of voters from Rauner in southern IL. jB Winn’s by 18%
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:55 pm
McCann pull large # of voters from Rauner in southern IL. j by 1
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:55 pm
JB 52%
Rauner39
McCann 7%
Comment by Generic Drone Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 7:57 pm
You would have to have either almost unprecedented turnout in Cook County and Chicago or a change in downstate voting to get Pritzker to these number. The later seem more difficult too given recent nation and statewide trends.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Oct 30, 18 @ 10:37 pm
JB by as little as 8%.
I marvel at the cynical ability of the Rauner crew to manipulate a tax & toilet issue, for example, to surpass the perceived gravity of what happened in Quincy and Willowbrook…not to mention the human toll resulting from devastating some life-saving social services throughout the state.
Comment by Stumpy's bunker Wednesday, Oct 31, 18 @ 6:52 am
6.5% JB
Comment by theCardinal Wednesday, Oct 31, 18 @ 11:55 am