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* I think Rick Pearson and Mike Riopell have written the best story about how DuPage County politics are changing that I have ever read. One small excerpt…
But there are other factors at play — such as the demographic shift DuPage County has been experiencing. DuPage is becoming less white, and its white population is growing older, according to statistics compiled by the county’s public health department. At the same time, its racial and ethnic minority population is growing, and it’s trending younger. […]
Between 1990 and 2013, the county’s Latino population increased by 275.4 percent and the African-American population increased by 175 percent, the DuPage health department report said. During that time period, there was a 124.3 percent increase in the 55 to 59 age group and a 162.4 percent increase in the 85 and over age group. […]
A critical subset of suburban voters are women — fiscally conservative but socially moderate who are true swing voters who can hold strong sway over the outcome of Illinois elections.
“I’ve got a picture of her on a PowerPoint,” said Mooney, the UIC political scientist, explaining one of his class exhibits.
“She’s about 34, she’s got a kid in the backseat that she’s taking to daycare or to soccer, she’s driving an SUV and she’s driving around in Schaumburg or Lisle or something like that,” he said. “She’s socially, fairly liberal. She has no problem with gay people. Immigrants maybe make her a little nervous but not that much. But she doesn’t like her taxes, and she doesn’t like Donald Trump and all these nasty things about people. That’s one of the problems some of these suburban Republicans have at the moment and the governor.”
Go read the whole thing. Really good work. A separate piece on suburban Cook County board races is here.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 1:52 pm
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Trump (and Rauner, to a lesser extent) are trying to appeal to Mooney’s hypothetical safety-minded, suburban women by offering to protect her from a supposed horde of immigrant invaders.
But the notion of a nearby chemical plant causing a cancer cluster or a crazed gunman shooting up her kid’s school are more immediate safety concern. That’s the essence of the GOP’s problem in the burbs.
Comment by Roman Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:11 pm
The reality is, the old guard of the Dupage Republicans were worried about staying in power. The demographic shift has been over 10 years and going. They didn’t want to do the outreach to the Latino community. It was too much work. It’s a shame. Illinois has real problems and a one party system isn’t the answer.
Comment by BenFolds5 Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:12 pm
It’s frankly kinda amazing, I lived in Naperville (The will county portion) and remember how red it was. One of the Naperville high schools had a court case in ‘08 if I recall correctly about a student wearing a “Be Happy not Gay” shirt.
Fast forward to today and now things have changed, the article does a better job of explaining why but basically conservatives have really chilled out when it comes to social issues. They still care about taxes but the don’t like how Republicans haven’t move forwarded socially and are tired of waiting.
Comment by DuPage/Will Man Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:17 pm
–Obama’s wins in DuPage were followed in 2016 by Democrat Hillary Clinton edging Republican Donald Trump in the county by more than 14 percentage points. –
“Edging” ain’t the right verb. That’s a “whipping” in any league, and a “shocking” one at that. One that I would not have thought possible just a few years ago.
Outside the purposely drawn super-majority GOP districts, Republican candidates in the suburbs are really up against it in the contradictions inherent now in winning a primary and winning a general election. Two totally different groups of voters.
And assuming Pritker wins, suburban GOP “safe districts” will be mapped into the Stone Age.
Adapt or go the way of the dinosaur.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:20 pm
Finally.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:25 pm
It’s like Jack Knupfer said about DuPage County:
“If you can’t afford to live here, you don’t belong.”
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:28 pm
One could argue that large portions of former GOP strong holds in Lake County fit this description too. The woman described in the article, driving around in the SUV, is my wife and all of her friends. The good thing is Dan Proft and Jeanne Ives are speaking the same language as these women, so the GOP should be back in the control of the suburbs very soon. /s
Comment by Red Ranger Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:28 pm
Great work, thanks Rich for pointing this out.
For me… i go back to the beginning;
Maureen Murphys… Mark Beaubiens…
And we need radical inclusion, not radical candor.
And we need a melting pot, not melting down to a monolithic man, and to that…
We need to appeal to the soccer mom, not pander to the soccer mom’s fears.
We need young voters to see open arms, not closed minds,
And we need smiles and positives not frowns and anger.
We need vision, not short sidedness, we need Reagan, not twisted quotes to diminish Reagan’s legacy.
We need the hear, not only more voices, but more languages, and more diversity.
This just in… a late 40’s white male… is already a minority… and you can start that measure with gender, we need a lot.
Come November 7… 10… 30… January… I’ll know where I can be… I’ll know if I can be where others might want to lead. I’ll know… if the rebirth is real… or a phony disguised attempt to make the ILGOP Slytherins… once and for all.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:28 pm
Kane County is not too far behind.
Comment by Dome Gnome Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:28 pm
Is there any polling from the primary that shows how women voted? Anyone know if more women voted for Rauner or Ives?
Comment by ste_wit a v_en Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:30 pm
I was talking to an African-American friend while working at the City of Chicago. I said DuPage County had a high minority population, it is 10% Asian. He said, “That doesn’t count”.
The ethnic and generational shift works against the Republicans. They have gone small tent when they should go big tent.
Neither of my daughters would vote Republican.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:31 pm
As a resident of Silverstris’ area I have seen the demographic change. It is driven primarily by people moving out of Chicago. They are dissatisfied with the crime and schools. I talk with many of them since I am a local elected official. But, and this is the big thing, even though they are trying to get away from the failure that Chicago is for most people outside the Loop and the gentrified areas, they keep their voting patterns. It is a real case of cognitive dissonance. They vote for that which they ran away from. And that’s the sad part for the county. Democratic control of Cook has led to massive tax and services failure. Look at the budgets. But it does succeed at patronage.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:36 pm
I’ve lived in DuPage for 35 years, and it was all Republican in the beginning. I’ve had to endure Henry Hyde and the like. But no more. I’m glad I’ve lived long enough to have a Democratic state rep, state senator, and U.S. representative.
The DuPage County Board is still a big challenge.
Comment by DuPage Dave Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:39 pm
And, don’t forget the issue of redistricting. The Dems used this in 2010 to gerrymander the metro area in ways that continue to benefit them. (It’s legal so I understand why they do it) Unless the Supreme court actually gets some courage and calls out this terrible practice it will continue to distort voters rights across the entire country.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:45 pm
I remember my Teenage GOP friends from DuPage bragging that their county party controlled the world. The fuzzy logic being that the GOP controlled DuPage; DuPage controlled Illinois; Illinois controlled the U.S.; and the U.S. controlled the world. I’m smiling now thinking that they control very little now.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 2:46 pm
OW, with respect…
Radical Candor is the best thing to come of the last 4 years. Perhaps one of the few redeeming things about social media generally.
Oh, you meant the concept, not the Twitter handle. I’ll hang up and listen…
Comment by Recovering Former State Employee Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 3:19 pm
- Recovering Former State Employee -
I got a lil fire and brimstone… you brought me back down.
Well played.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 3:24 pm
Rich +1
Outstanding on the ground reporting.
E.g. “[F]ormer Republican Congressman Harris Fawell, who represented what is now Roskam’s 6th District, has a Casten sign in his front yard in Glen Ellyn.”
Comment by Scott Fawell's Cellmate Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 3:29 pm
Lived in DuPage County since getting married. The GOP guard is still trying to hold on but is slowly seeing it change. And they are still holding steadfast to the positions espoused 30+ years ago.
Comment by Bogey Golfer Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 3:40 pm
==even though they are trying to get away from the failure that Chicago is for most people outside the Loop and the gentrified areas, they keep their voting patterns.==
I would imagine that people moving out of Chicago and into DuPage county are coming from the gentrified and gentrifying areas. I’m 34 and most of the people I know who have moved out is because a home in a good school boundary in the city is $750k, versus $400k in the suburbs.
Comment by supplied_demand Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 3:51 pm
OW,
See the thing about it is…you’re exactly right. Still waiting to see who would like to campaign on “why you should vote for me” as opposed to “why you can’t vote for him/her” which is now the norm on both sides of the aisle. Still waiting. Been waiting. Probably going to be waiting a while longer.
Comment by Recovering Former State Employee Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 4:01 pm
- Recovering Former State Employee -
Yep. Thanks. Can’t find too many Illinois Republicans with positive messages, or trying to be inclusive.
Tough to find. Rare even.
Rauner bought the ILGOP. This election might just end the ILGOP
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 4:07 pm
–Radical Candor is the best thing to come of the last 4 years.–
If I recall, the Radical Candor IL twitter handle came from some scatter-brained word-salad dished out to staff by Kristina (don’t call me Kristen or Katrina) during her historic Camelot Days as Rauner’s COS.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Nov 2, 18 @ 9:42 pm