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* Sneed…
Personal PAC, the powerful abortion rights/pro-choice organization which is a major force on the the political scene, seems scared to death that it’s chosen candidate for Illinois attorney general — Democrat Kwame Raoul — might be in trouble.
In a confidential letter dispatched late last week to board members by PAC leader Terry Cosgrove, the fear of Raoul losing the state race is palpable.
In the letter, which was obtained by Sneed, Cosgrove states:
“Putting aside the closeness of many legislative races, I am most concerned about Kwame Raoul defeating [Republican] Erika Harold.”
* Politico…
When Obama approached Kwame Raoul for a similar embrace, the state senator in a tough battle for attorney general gave the former president a giant bear hug.
* WTTW…
One race that’s expected to be close is the race for attorney general, in which Democratic state Sen. Kwame Raoul – who took Obama’s seat when Obama left Springfield for the U.S. Senate – is facing off against Urbana attorney and former Miss America Erika Harold.
* But…
At the same time, Harold, an Urbana attorney, bought limited broadcast TV advertising time in the Chicago market for the race’s final weekend. Her campaign late Friday also purchased cable advertising time in the Chicago market.
She’s basically dark on Chicago broadcast.
* The Question: What’s your over/under prediction for the percentage margin between Harold and Raoul? Explain.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:05 pm
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Raoul by 6. Harold makes up for a Statewide -12 by R’s by sheer force of will.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:08 pm
Joe Duffy and crew have run a solid campaign. Harold is a female so I give her points for that but not enough to pull through. Kwame by eight.
Comment by Tom Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:08 pm
Raoul by 4. It’s all coattails at this point
Comment by Near West side Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:10 pm
Raoul by 2. He will under perform the top of the ticket. I expect JB to win by 12-15 points. JB has had a robust, statewide campaign. Raoul has not. I expect Raoul to take a beating outside of the Chicago metro area.
Comment by Powdered Whig Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:11 pm
Kwame should be alright. The ticket splitters who would vote Pritzker but be swayed by a “check Pritzker with Harold” argument are also going to be put off by Harold’s statements on social issues. She’ll lead the ticket but lose by 8.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:12 pm
I think Kwame pulls it out. By 5 points.
But this I don’t understand: She’s basically dark on Chicago broadcast.
Comment by Centennial Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:14 pm
Harold loses by 6.
Reasoning: Harold gets Rauner + McCann, which I see as 38% + 7%, or 45%.
Harsy gets 4%.
That means: Raoul 51%, Harold 45%, Harsy 4%.
Postscript: Harold seeks GOP nomination for governor in 2022.
Comment by DarkHorse Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:14 pm
Kwame by 7.. Since the Personal PAC letter went out, his numbers have improved.. He benefits from the Blue Wave, but he did run a bad race,,
Comment by NotRich Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:16 pm
Kwame by 6. The more I see and hear Rauner is waiting big of a cross to carry. This will be a wipe out year for Republicans
I am also convinced Hultgren and Roskam gone.
Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:20 pm
Raoul by 6. Harold will certainly well outpace Rauner in part because he’s so doomed she can run on the message of being a check on one party rule.
Comment by Nacho Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:20 pm
Raoul by 5 points. The headwinds are against Erica in this one. She’ll do well downstate and better than Rauner in the collar counties but won’t be able to make up Kwame’s margins in the city.
Comment by lollinois Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:22 pm
Kwame by 5 points.
Pritzker beats Rauner by 15/16 points (RCP avg, 538 avg)
The challenge for Harold is how does she make up the top of the ticket issue. From what I’ve seen with her advertising, she’s doing that as appealing to minority voters, women, and independent voters who are weary from Madigan fatigue.
That pulls Kwame to under-perform JB but not enough to put Harold in as AG.
Comment by MG85 Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:22 pm
Raoul by 10. It’s not the year to be running as an R. It’s just not.
I think some are enjoying the idea that this race is closer than it is. The fear that complacent D voters stay home is real, and this is an attempt to give one last jolt of motivation to a sometimes hard to motivate group of voters.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:24 pm
I’m going with Raoul by 7. I don’t see a lot of ticket splitters this year and in the Chicago metro area there’s a lot of anger directed at Republicans. The fact that Roskam and Hultgren might be in jeopardy speaks volumes.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:27 pm
I saw an Erika Harold ad on the NBC news after the NFL Sunday Night game.
There was a Bridget Fitzgerald ad right after the Erika Harold ad and I thought to myself that candidates have gotten a lot more attractive than they were in the heydays of John Stroger & Richie Daley.
Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:28 pm
Harold will likely lose by 4-5 points but emerge as an up and comer. Kwame will underperform the rest of the ticket, mostly due to a poorly run campaign and a clueless campaign staff running a Chicago-focused race.
Comment by west wing Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:30 pm
Raoul +10 ish
Harold failed to be persuasive on issues like pre-existing condition and choice. Never promised to not reverse current state positions on these national issues. AG suits against GovJunk Poison Plant and grand jury on Quincy did her no favors.
Comment by Annonin' Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:31 pm
I think Kwame by 5ish. He will be fine. I do feel like the Dems are making it seem closer than it is to fight against voter complacency.
Comment by Montrose Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:32 pm
47th I hesitate to disagree with you. But I am fearful that there will be a number of women voters who may not be paying attention to this race. They’ll vote for JB and for the D congressional candidate, but they may vote for the women’s names down ballot.
I speak as a formerly less-engaged voter who may or may not have voted for the LaRouche candidates once upon a time…
Comment by Soccermom Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:32 pm
Dark horse ==Postscript: Harold seeks GOP nomination for governor in 2022===
Ironically, I think she might have had a chance to beat JB this year if she had run for gov.
Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:33 pm
So my prediction is Kwame 50, Erika 49, Libertarian 1
Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:33 pm
We’ll know in about 36 hours Mom. Hang in there.
Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:34 pm
Harold by 1.
I think the “I’ll be a check on Pritzker-Madigan” is a compelling message.
Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:34 pm
Keep it classy, @Fax Machine
Comment by Anonymiss Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:35 pm
Dear Jibba,
I could not agree more. If Ives could get 48.5% in the primary, Harold could have won that - and been a really strong candidate against J.B.
Comment by DarkHorse Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:40 pm
Raoul by 2 percent.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:41 pm
Harold by 1 or 2. Her check on Pritzer and Madigan message is smart. Kwame’s closing negative ad on Harold is edited strangely and makes it seem unbelievable. Hope I’m wrong though.
Comment by TopHatMonocle Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:42 pm
I’m at 4-5 with Raoul, mirroring Mendoza-Munger.
Those margins are based, for me, on downstate and how well Raoul does in comparison to where Mendoza was.
The greater the margin, the bigger we will see this possible blue wave.
Rauner is too disliked to be a fair barometer.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:47 pm
@Fax Machine. So your analysis is “these lady candidates sure are hot stuff”? Come on, man.
Comment by lakeside Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:49 pm
Kwame by 2 1/2. He hasn’t been working hard enough and a lone republican check is appealing to people who aren’t crazy about JB, but have to vote against Rauner.
Comment by Henry Francis Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:52 pm
Raoul by 5-7 the Dem downstate GOTV is going to be a surprise this election.
Comment by Annon3 Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:54 pm
All I’m saying is Bridget Fitzgerald looks a lot better than Peter Fitzgerald
Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:56 pm
Harold by 1.5%. Kwame whines about results for two weeks.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:57 pm
Dark Horse
You are dreaming. No way the spot light or the need to raise funds would have been kind to Harold vs Pritzker. As to current race, she loses by 8 pts. She will lose big in Chicago metro. Not enough cash or organization
Comment by Old and In The Way Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 1:58 pm
I think Raoul will win by 1-2 points, all on the strength of Democratic turnout.
Comment by Maestro Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:01 pm
It will be close but I’d pedict Raoul by about 4. There are some GOP folks I know that when talking to them they all say they are voting for Harold but some of them aren’t voting for Rauner.
Harold’s late feel good campaign ad with her grandma is a good ad.
Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:02 pm
Seems the media and “observers” are hungry for drama since the Gov race is likely to be a blowout. Kwame by 6-7.
Comment by Anonymiss Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:03 pm
Raoul 52% Harold 44% Others 4%. The blue wave may not end up being national. But I think it will be midwestern. I know Harold got a lot of pop downstate, but 4 years of Rauner have taken its toll on the popularity of Republicans in traditional Republican areas.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Kwame by 6. Harold’s margin considered a victory when compared to Rauner’s margin.
Comment by Dance Band on the Titanic Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Raoul by 8. It will be a blue wave.
Comment by anon2 Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:05 pm
If Kwame loses, I bet Pat Quinn does a “kiss my rear” media tour.
Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:05 pm
Old and in the Way…
She is barely qualified to be AG (minimum: practicing attorney), but is competitive without much cash. She likely loses because it is a Dem year, running against another African American who has more obvious qualifications.
But against JB, sure she loses on money. However, neither is qualified to be gov, and her only negatives are old statements. She would likely do better than Rauner, and just might win as an African American woman against a bland white guy in a Me too environment. Just a fun thought experiment on a slow day.
Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:08 pm
She should run for Senate in 2020, it’s not like ILGOP has anyone better.
Comment by Fax Machine Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:10 pm
3%, but I think Harold wins by less than .5%.
The magic number for a republican in Chicago is 23-25% depending on who you talk to. But you have to sweep 101 other counties. That was with the traditional margins in the South.
If Trumpers push the normal 5-7% margins in Rural Counties to 60-40 its a problem.
The assumption of the 2016 anomaly vs realignment has yet to be seen. I think this is why Pritzker will spend $175 million when the polls show he was going to win with 1/4 of that.
Comment by the Patriot Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:11 pm
If Harold runs for gov in 22, and kinsinger for senate, strong top of ticket. Or flip the names
Comment by Long watcher new talker Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:13 pm
===She should run for Senate in 2020, it’s not like ILGOP has anyone better.===
Maybe state senate. Jason Plummer is just hours away from winning for the first time.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:13 pm
The ghosts of George Sangmeister and Aurelia Pucinski reappear in a general election. Harold by 2%.
Comment by Sarge Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:17 pm
Whatever race Harold runs next time, she needs to win. Otherwise she will be a 3 time loser, which might be enough to dim even her star. Her choices to date show a significant hubris, taking on a sitting Republican Congressman for her first outing without having any political experience, then AG. Going for Senate or Gov would be similar, albeit not impossible. She would be better going the Oberweis route and getting a state senate or rep seat, as per OW.
Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:21 pm
Harold by a hair.
Comment by flea Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:30 pm
What mystifies me is how Harold has been left hanging by the GOP money folks in the final two weeks - when Raoul has been outspending her 10:1. Do they really want her to win?
Comment by DarkHorse Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:32 pm
Harold by 3
Comment by Rutro Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:35 pm
Raoul - 48.6%
Harold - 48.4%
Barsy - 3%
Have any more polls been conducted for this race? I think that this race will be a lot closer than people think…..
I know in the last poll I saw, there were plenty of undecided voters, although many of them already made up their mind on Pritzker. I think the Madigan message has been made clear, independent minded voters and most Republicans will vote for Harold.
Comment by JakeCP Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:40 pm
I hate Raoul, but he wins by 10. This isn’t close, but because the Gov race ended a month ago, people are looking for things to worry about.
Comment by Action Joe Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 2:42 pm
This is a very Blue state. Raoul should win by at least 6%.
Comment by Steve Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:08 pm
It mystifies when I read comments suggesting that the office of Attorney General is a stepping stone to higher office. In Illinois, that has not proven to be the case and the road sides are littered of former AGs who failed to be elected to more prominent offices (I do not count Burris who was appointed to the US Senate — I am referring to those elected).
Comment by Practical Politics Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:21 pm
Raoul by 4%+. But you haven’t seen the last of Harold. She has “the look” and can recreate herself in time.
Comment by Stumpy's bunker Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:35 pm
Raoul by 10+ –47th offers the same explanation I would. Rauner is a drag and in a blue state in a blue year, there just isn’t much for her to do. She may well do 10 points better than Rauner even at that.
Comment by Archpundit Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 3:36 pm
Erika by 2 points
Comment by Insider Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:50 pm
Might not know the winner until very late it’s going to be that close. Just a gut feeling. I think Kwame may pull out a victory by the slimmest of margins. A few of my Chicago friends punched D down the ticket EXCEPT they voted for Harold. Just said they didn’t like Kwame.
Anecdotal cases yes, but if there’s a significant number of those voters in Chicago he’s in real trouble.
Comment by CrazyHorse Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 4:53 pm
Any statewide Democrat running in 2018 that has a close race is a big question mark. The fact that he was nominated speaks volumes about where the Democratic Party is headed. He loses Downstate 65% to 35%. The Illinois Cook County Chair’s Association in Friends remains a rubber stamp.
Comment by Louis Howe Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:01 pm
Raul by 3%
Unfortunate, as he sponsored a bill to overrule the “hog” ruling in IL. (SB3005). TALK about a business killer….let’s just throw all federal and state operating permits out because someone moved in next store to an existing facility. GREAT. Another reason for businesses to flee.
Comment by Taxedoutwest Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:02 pm
I don’t understand why Erika didn’t reach out to Jeanne Ives for an endorsement and to ask her to go on the fly around. I know most of her money came from rauner but at some point someone in her campaign should look at the primary vote.
I don’t know if she really wants to win.
Comment by northshore cynic Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 5:11 pm
Wishing and hoping, nothing else.
Harold by 3.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Nov 5, 18 @ 6:19 pm
Kwame, possibly by double digits.
To my beloved fellow predicters: don’t know how many of you have been to Champaign-Urbana in the last few weeks, but perhaps you guys can make a last second field trip tomorrow.
When you drive around town, you see a crap ton of signs for Kwame, and hardly any for Erica. If the people she went to K-12 with and those who are her cousins are unwilling to vote for her, does she have much of a chance in the Metro East and Chicagoland?
If she loses as badly as I think she will in her home county, does she really have a future in politics? And her as governor? Seriously? Folks do realize how she would get hammered over the statements she made about gay foster parents and abortion. Those would be the first commercials that would be run against her, and they would be on continuous airplay.
She wants desperately to be in the big leagues, but she needs to play Little League and AAA ball first.
(And that ad with her grandma? Talking about voting rights, when she belongs to a party desperately doing anything they can to deny the franchise to any group they can pick on? Erica may be easy on the eyes, but how in the heck does she live with that much cognitive dissonance?)
Comment by Lynn S. Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 3:02 am
Raoul by about 5. Reason: most women won’t vote for a strident pro-life, anti-abortion candidate, even if it is a woman.
Comment by Jerry Tuesday, Nov 6, 18 @ 9:11 am