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* Zorn…
The final vote totals for the Nov. 6 midterm elections released Monday by the Illinois State Board of Elections show that Democrats won 61 percent of the votes cast in U.S. House races in the state, yet they won 72 percent of the seats — 13 out of 18, instead of the 11 out of 18 that would have almost exactly reflected the Democrats’ share of the vote. […]
All 118 seats in the Illinois House of Representatives were up for election this year (as they are every two years) and Democrats won 62 percent of those seats with 59.8 percent of the overall popular vote. […]
In the Wisconsin midterm elections, Republicans won just 46 percent of the overall popular vote for the U.S. House, but 63 percent of the seats — 5 out of 8. The weekly Isthmus newspaper based in Madison reports that Democrats won 54 percent of the popular vote for Wisconsin State Assembly but, due to the Republican-friendly map, only 36 percent of the seats.
In the Ohio midterm elections, Republicans won 52 percent of the overall popular vote for the U.S. House, but 75 percent of the seats — 12 out of 16. The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that Republicans won 50 percent of the popular vote in state House elections, but 63 percent of the seats.
In the North Carolina midterm elections, Republicans won 50 percent of the overall popular vote for the U.S. House, but 77 percent of the seats — 10 out of 13 — though one apparent Republican victory has yet to be certified due to allegations of fraud. The Washington Post reports that North Carolina Democrats won 51 percent of the popular vote in state House elections, but just 45 percent of the seats.
Keep in mind that the Republicans hold two Illinois congressional seats which were originally drawn for Democrats (Mike Bost and Rodney Davis) and the Democrats picked up two this year in districts that were packed with Republican voters to keep them away from Democratic districts (Peter Roskam and Randy Hultgren).
Zorn’s conclusion is that Gov.-elect Pritzker should abandon his pledge to veto any map that isn’t a “fair” map until the federal government takes some action. I suppose I wouldn’t argue too strenuously about congressional maps because of the national situation, but state legislative maps need to be a lot more fairly drawn.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:13 am
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Are Illinois’ legislative maps so bad? Rauner won 38.8% of the vote, and the House Republicans have 38.9% of the seats. That’s not bad at all.
There were candidates for governor from different parties, but there’s no saying exactly how those voters would have gone in the legislature. Many McCann voters were protesting against Republicans, and may well have voted Democratic in legislative races. Clearly, Raoul and White got support from voters who rejected Pritzker, legislative candidates may have, too.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:24 am
Agree that across the nation there should be independent fair maps drawn. Said that, until there is a national standard, power corrupts absolutely. Playing nice does not get good policy passed in the current climate.
Comment by Illinois Resident Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:27 am
Leaders go first. And inspire others to follow.
Comment by The Chairman Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:28 am
Said it before, I’ll say it again: If control of the legislative distracting process doesn’t have any bearing on who wins, then Democrats in Illinois should have no problem ceding control of the process.
Yet they won’t even allow us to vote on it. Wonder why?
Comment by JB13 Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:30 am
Watching what’s happening in Wisconsin and Michigan and wondering why it’s always the Democrats who are hectored into doing the right thing.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:31 am
While there is gerrymandering done by both parties nationally, the strong tilt seems to go with the Republicans currently. Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, and recently Pennsylvania are a joke. Voting should matter.
Comment by Illinois Resident Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:31 am
Gov.-elect Pritzker should stick to his pledge to veto any map that isn’t a “fair” map.
However, a map that gives Dems “62 percent of those seats with 59.8 percent of the overall popular vote” seems to fall within a reasonable margin of error for actually being fair.
Comment by Hamlet's Ghost Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:33 am
What was Charlton Heston’s comment ?? Neither the Speaker nor the Senate President will give up drawing lines. This next map has the ability to push Republicans close to extinction ( thanks BRUCIE).. ain’t gonna happen
Comment by Wow Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:34 am
It’s the right thing to do. I know “doing the right thing when the other side isn’t” this is the Dems’ Charlie Brown football, but this is both fair and a lowish-risk situation where Dems and JB can show leadership.
Comment by lakeside Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:35 am
===why it’s always the Democrats who are hectored into doing the right thing===
Don’t argue like a child. This is an Illinois blog. We talk about Illinois here. If the Republicans were in control here I’d be saying the same thing about the maps.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:36 am
47th Ward - Completely agree. Wisconsin and Michigan GOP are preparing to pass lame duck legislation to curtail powers of the new governor administrations. They control the legislature in such numbers due to extreme gerrymandering. They play hardball on all levels. And democrats in power should lay down? That has local and national consequences.
Comment by Illinois Resident Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:36 am
Agree with the principle of fair maps. But it’s a real problem if the blue states all go-in for fair maps and the red states continue to play games with Gerrymandering and other anti-democratic moves like voter ID and cutting back early voting. Just today, the GOP in WI voted to strip the incoming Democratic governor and attorney general of much of their powers because they are Democrats. They also voted to slash early voting. This is just wrong. So perhaps both sides can agree on a truce and stop the shenanigans.
The good news for Democrats is that fair maps tend to produce more Democrats in the legislatures. In turn that produces more ballot access and small-D democracy.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:36 am
Oh, he will abandon it for sure. I have zero confidence that our next map will be fair. Of course it will be corrupt. The Democrats can’t help themselves.
Comment by Not It Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:40 am
There is no such thing as a fair map. All maps are considered fair by the party in power, and unfair by the party out of power.
A single party district is unfair to those living within them, but fair to those considering a state. What is unfair within a state, could be debated as fair nationally.
There’s no such thing. It’s gerrymandering. It’s politics. Politics stink.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:42 am
–Are Illinois’ legislative maps so bad? Rauner won 38.8% of the vote, and the House Republicans have 38.9% of the seats. That’s not bad at all.–
The proper comparison for legislative seats would be to take the average GOP % of the vote for legislative candidates, not a clearly unpopular governor.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:43 am
–The final vote totals for the Nov. 6 midterm elections released Monday by the Illinois State Board of Elections show that Democrats won 61 percent of the votes cast in U.S. House races in the state, yet they won 72 percent of the seats — 13 out of 18, instead of the 11 out of 18 that would have almost exactly reflected the Democrats’ share of the vote. […]–
Meh, Dems won some close ones knocking off GOP incumbents. I suspect that explains “the gap.”
I’m guessing Pritzker will declare any map the GA puts on his desk a “fair map.” And the GOP will sue. SOP.
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:46 am
===So perhaps both sides can agree on a truce===
LOL
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:47 am
Having beverages with someone I respect and bounce things off of when it comes to politics and the discussion turned to maps, “fair maps”, the idea of the inherit badness of maps, and the temptation to make maps skew for a side.
In summation to the discussion, this thought emerged.
The map itself can dictate the playing field, and many times dictate outcomes not in line with the voters. The trick is, when the map or maps are against you, to find candidates and issues locally investing in that district in a way that the district demographics to itself, locally, supercede labels, and having a candidate willing to be more central to that district than to party, then you have at least a chance to win, as the challenges now become local.
Republicans need maps more, not only because the party has evolved (devolved in all honesty) into a monolithic shell, singing in monolithic tones.
Here in Illinois, the anomalies of Dems all but owning GOP drawn seats, or a Republican owning that Dem drawn district… it’s the candidates, the incumbents, they ARE those local districts, the local flavor, the known entity, the “local kid made good”.
I can and do support a fair map ideal. I’d like to see how it will be implemented and the criteria and mechanism to do it.
I also see how incredibly lazy each party can be, and often is, and unwilling to go into districts and make cases with the local kids, making local arguments, allowing locals to choose one of their own outside party because the “other side” plum got a good map, so why bother?
The simple solution of a fair map can be that game changer, but there have been times a favorable map led not to majorities but led to questions, that yet to be answered outside tribalism.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:49 am
I agree with VanillaMan. There is an argument for and against the current House districts being fair. If I remember correctly, Rauner won a majority of state House districts in 2014, but obviously Democrats still won the House.
For those that think the current map is not fair, how many seats should Republicans hold in order for you to think the map is fair?
Comment by My Button is Broke... Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:51 am
===The Democrats can’t help themselves.===
Tell that to Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas…
No party is without fault.
Ask Pate Phillip too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:51 am
Lighten up Francis, I’m not arguing, just making an observation about Zorn’s lecture.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 10:52 am
When the Republicans in literally any other state disarm, D’s here can disarm. Until then, we have to fight fire with fire, and we should.
Republicans have proven over and over that if they can’t win, they’ll cheat by disenfranchising voters in myriad ways. If Dems fight “fair” then they will be relegated to minority status forever…maybe not in Illinois, but nationally, and that’s just as important.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:03 am
Pot meet kettle, ILGOP.
Ignoring national politics in this discussion is missing the point.
Anyone reasonable should agree every state needs nonpartisan, or at least partisan-neutral, redistricting.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:04 am
Would like to see fair maps in Indiana.
Comment by A 400lb. Guy on a bed Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:11 am
Scott Kennedy, got an opinion here? Aren’t Illinois maps pretty balanced?
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:12 am
I don’t think you can draw a “fair” map, I say leave things alone. We elected a Rep. Governor four years ago, and the people got rid of him…that’s the way it is supposed to work the people have the power.
Comment by Uncle Ernie Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:14 am
Yes, we should have a fair map system and the Democrats should support it (the Republican’s will already support it because they are in the minority, just like Democrats support fair maps in Republican states). Anyway, they should support it for 2 main reasons:
1. It is the right thing to do. I don’t think I need to argue much about this as most people generally would agree that fair elections and confidence in our election system is good for democracy.
2. They actually don’t need to gerrymander. The Illinois Republican party is a mess and will get in their own way. The Democrats actually don’t need to rig the system, they can win big anyway in Illinois. Unfortunately, I don’t see the Illinois Republican’s fixing themselves anytime soon.
Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:14 am
@Ron Burgundy -
That is not how elections work.
With all due respect, the metric is helpful but not determinitive.
“Democrats got 59 percent of the vote, so Democrats should get 59 percent of the seats” is not how legislative races work.
If that was how legislative races work, Democrats would spend money driving up vote totals for uncontested legislative races in the city of chicago. Republicans would do the same in safe GOP seats. And both sides would discourage individuals from running against heavily favored incumbents which drives up turnout.
What is the Illinois GOP’s record of accomplishment over the last four years? Tell me that, before you tell me that the GOP “deserves” more seats. I’d argue the opposite: the GOP has more seats than it “deserves” because they party has a base of support that will vote for them no matter what. That’s evidenced by 25% vote for an avowed Nazi.
Of course, the same can be said of Democrats. There’s certainly folks who, “no matter what,” will always vote for the Democrat. Go look at 1994 election returns.
“Percent of votes cast for each party statewide” is an attempt to change the way you judge a contest after the contest is over. If you did that after a baseball game, arguing that runners who reached 3rd, 2nd or 1st should count as .75, .5 or .25 runs, no one would take you seriously.
Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:16 am
Like others have stated, what’s the benefit for JB taking the proverbial “high road” in this current political climate? An entry for next year’s Nobel committee?
Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:16 am
But it’s not what Pritzker wants, it’s what Madigan will allow. There is no reason to believe Madigan wants to release control of the mapmaking. Since that is the case and since the Supreme court has punted on this issue we will continue to see gerrymandering here. Abandon all hope ye who advocate for this.
Comment by NeverPoliticallyCorrect Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:16 am
===For those that think the current map is not fair, how many seats should Republicans hold===
That’s not the entire point. Maps are drawn to exclude potential opponents, include specific types of supporters, ensure favored incumbents don’t have to move, etc.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:22 am
===what’s the benefit for JB taking the proverbial “high road”===
Making good on campaign promises is generally considered a positive thing.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:25 am
===Maps are drawn to exclude potential opponents, include specific types of supporters, ensure favored incumbents don’t have to move, etc.===
You forgot to include that maps are also drawn to disenfranchise minority voters.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:26 am
Fair maps for all 50 state legislatures. Fair maps for all congressional districts in all 50 states. Fair maps for local governments in all 50 states, whether municipal, county, school districts and others.
Why not? Because Madigan . . . is too simplistic of an alibi to avoid true reforms in redistricting.
In Illinois, I remain a proponent of a three person legislative district in the Illinois House, with no more than two seats going to one political party in each. It worked years ago before Quinn mucked it up by eliminating it. It gave minorities a voice in Springfield in each House District, whether political, ethnic or racial.
Maybe it is time everyone called on Pritzker for his definition of a Fair Map, as well as Illinois Income Tax Reform.
The same old, same old isn’t working. Just look at all the uncontested seats for the Illinois Senate and Illinois House, or some of the barely contested Congressional seats. Make them all work for their elected offices and titles.
Comment by Louis G. Atsaves Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:26 am
“That’s not the entire point. Maps are drawn to exclude potential opponents, include specific types of supporters, ensure favored incumbents don’t have to move, etc.”
Well yes Rich and when supposedly “hard R’s” themselves had enough, they chose a different party to represent them as the suburban legislative results showed this year.
Comment by low level Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:30 am
gotta agree with Zorn here
there was some hope a few years back that SCOTUS would take some gerrymandering cases working through the courts and do something good at the federal level, but that’s not going to happen now.
Comment by brickle Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:31 am
===You forgot===
There is judicial recourse for that in Illinois.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:43 am
===Making good on campaign promises is generally considered a positive thing.==
Amen. If JB were to fulfill his campaign promise, this would work well in his favor for his 2022 re-election bid.
I wholeheartedly support the idea of fair maps.
I wish we could get some fair maps up here for the 50 wards up here in Chicago, too.
Comment by JakeCP Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:45 am
@Rich -
If this were a debate about drawing incumbents into districts to run against one another, or drawing out challengers, I think the minority party would have stronger footing.
Frankly, if that would quell the debate, I think both sides could easily come to an agreement. Democrats already have a super majority, they don’t really need a super-duper majority. and the population shift means the GOP is going to be losing downstate legislative seats any way.
But that is not want Republicans want, nor something they would ever accept. They want to set the rules to pack as many minority voters into as few districts as possible.
Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:52 am
The thing that always struck me about the Illinois districts (not congressional) is the effort that is made to ensure that incumbents homes are in a specific district even if it is at the very edge of the new district.
I am going out on a stable limb here and say if Ruaner had won re-election, Zorn would be a bit more concerned about a map that was fair to Democrats than he is about a map that is fair to Republicans.
Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:53 am
===But that is not want Republicans want===
I don’t care what the Republicans want and I don’t care what Democratic partisans want, either. Fair maps is the right thing to do and I’ve always supported the concept, if not some of the actual proposals.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:54 am
It’s nice of Zorn to provide cover for the Governor-Elect not keeping a campaign promise. If you can’t/won’t due it in January, don’t promise it in August.
Comment by Worth It Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 11:56 am
==You forgot to include that maps are also drawn to disenfranchise minority voters.==
Or over-franchise them if it works for the map maker. Can you maybe explain why there isn’t another Latino Congressional seat? Disenfranchising seems to have some caveats where it’s ok I guess, eh?
Comment by A guy Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:06 pm
===Fair maps is the right thing to do and I’ve always supported the concept, if not some of the actual proposals.===
The funny thing is, I think Pritzker is much closer to your position than he is to Madigan’s on this. I fully expect you to hold his feet to the fire on it too. I’ve said before that this is the issue that puts them on a collision course. It’s why Rauner’s fantasy of a Madigan-Pritzker alliance was pure baloney. There are a number of places where Pritzker will break with Madigan, but this is the big one.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:13 pm
===Can you maybe explain why there isn’t another Latino Congressional seat?===
Because we haven’t drawn a new map yet.
Because we’re likely to lose another congressional seat (again). Maybe two.
Because Latinos live all over Illinois.
The better question, especially coming from someone like you is why are there still three African-American seats? But your concern for Latino representation is noted.
Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:18 pm
A legitimate question - what is a “fair map”?
This is an easy subject to attack the Democrats on, largely because it’s one that most don’t fully understand. I am guessing there are a handful of people who know how to draw a map that complies with the requirements of the Illinois and US constitutions, federal and state law, and the various cases interpreting the laws.
Comment by retiredhack Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:45 pm
“preparing to pass lame duck legislation to curtail powers of the new governor administrations. ”
What about the airport commission that somehow linked Gary airport with O’Hare? Wasn’t that created to prevent the Republicans from making O’Hare a state-run
Thing back in the 90s?
Comment by Fav Human Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:57 pm
Probably the I&m canal had something similar to that done back in the 1850s. we just have forgotten about it…
Comment by Fav human Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 12:59 pm
“There are a number of places where Pritzker will break with Madigan, but this is the big one.”
Ding. Ding. Ding. Give that man a cookie.
Comment by Anon0091 Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 1:24 pm
If you want to fully address gerrymandering, the ultimate way to do so would be to get rid of the districts themselves and bypass commissions. There’s nothing in the Constitution about states needing to divided up their House delegations into districts as opposed to at-large members reflective of their total population. Would never go anywhere but it’s in theory possible.
Comment by Stark Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 2:22 pm
Louis G. - I too miss the three member districts. Quinn mucked that up really good. Every Democrat and Republican were represented in every district under that system. It produced Republicans in Chicago and Dems in DuPage. That was “fair” in its day, but the voters rejected it. What is “fair” now may depend on the end of the horse you are facing - or which way the wind is blowing.
Comment by Suburbanon Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 3:04 pm
Even if there was a “map commission” drawing a so called fair map, those who pick the commission are still politicians (Mike Madigan) comes to mind. This is a blue state , so the map is going to favor Democrats. The Republicans control many states and draw a map favorable to them. I can’t blame J.B. if he punts on the issue. Yes, it’s a campaign promise . Yes, it doesn’t look great. But, JB has much more important issues to tackle like taxes, pensions, and education.
Comment by Steve Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 3:15 pm
=== miss the three member districts ===
And add to the voter confusion that already exists.
Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 4:01 pm
fivethirtyeight.com has a great treatment of the gerrymandering issue. The full project is at https://fivethirtyeight.com/tag/the-gerrymandering-project/
At this site you can compare the current map with a fair map for Illinois by going to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-maps/illinois/
The most important effect would be to make more districts competitive, which would lead the parties to nominate less polarizing people, which I think would be a good thing.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 4:36 pm
Last map by the Dems intentionally cut a Republicans District Office building and parking lot out of the district just so they would have to spend money to move the office. Childish.
Districts should be made as square or rectangle as they can to put the amount of people in that should be. These lines that go all over the place are ridiculas and nothing more than stealing the state what ever side you are on. Straight lines down and across is the only way to make a “Fair Map”. Funny, the oldest government in this State is Townships, all 6×6 mile square and have never changed since the 1860’s. They seem to be the only ones to get it right.
Comment by Palatine Pop Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 5:08 pm
=== The most important effect would be to make more districts competitive, ===
Or, as I have said many times: the GOP could stop opposing reproductive rights, gay rights, gun control, voting rights, minimum wage, and legalizing marijuana.
You want the legislative races to be more competitive by allowing Republicans to kick off from the 50 yard line instead of the 35.
Maybe it’s time they just put a better team on the field?
=== which would lead the parties to nominate less polarizing people, which I think would be a good thing. ===
The supporters of Senator Hillary Clinton and President Donald Trump disagree with you.
So do backers of Jan Schakowsky and Mike Bost.
The entire argument rests on the premise that diversity of opinion is a weakness.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 5:40 pm
Lot of exceptions to the 6×6 townships in Cook County, e.g. Berwyn, Cicero, New Trier, Calumet. Should get rid of townships, which Evanston did, when the township and the city or town are coterminous.
Comment by West Side the Best Side Wednesday, Dec 5, 18 @ 9:46 pm