Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Chicagoland Chamber comes out hard for megadevelopment near Soldier Field
Next Post: Chumming the sharks
Posted in:
* Illinois News Network…
U.S. Census data released Thursday showed the population in every one of the state’s metropolitan areas declined in the past year for the first time.
The Chicago metropolitan area, which includes suburban cities and portions of Wisconsin and Indiana, reported the largest population decrease in the nation, shrinking by an estimated 22,068 people. That represents 0.23 percent of the area’s total population of about 9.5 million people.
Population in the Danville area shrank by 1.26 percent, representing an estimated 970 people. Nationally, only three other communities saw a bigger percentage decline. It also marked Danville’s largest decrease in population in recent years, the next highest being a loss of 778 in 2014. […]
Other metropolitan areas that saw population losses included Decatur (821), Springfield, (1,539), Carbondale (590), Kankakee (520), Rockford (594) and the Bloomington-Normal area (157).
* Tribune…
From 2001 to 2007, downstate metro areas added 144,089 residents, mostly driven by gains in migration. But in the last seven years, those areas have lost a third of that gain, about 43,000 people.
As for the state’s rural counties, they have been losing population since 1997 as residents’ deaths outpace births and more people move out than come in. […]
While many experts bemoan the drops in population, Chicago demographer Rob Paral examined Cook County’s most recent numbers and found “neither cause for joy nor cause for alarm.”
Because Cook is such a large county, the number of residents lost is less important than the percent change, he said. Cook County’s population increased for several years after 2010, Paral said, and while it’s been falling since 2015, the percent decrease has been minimal. […]
“There’s not some mass exodus going on,” he said. “I think this is important, because for many years there was a worry that somehow the county was just going to have accelerated loss, but that’s not what we see. People were using the loss of population here … as a hook to hang their favorite issue on. They would say it was because of taxes, or because of this and that. But the numbers don’t really support the idea that we have some kind of dire problem.”
Since 2010, Cook County’s population has dropped by 14,533 people. That’s a decline of 0.28 percent. You obviously want to see growth, and the problem did worsen starting in 2015, but you’d think the numbers were much more dire by reading the headlines.
The more problematic numbers are in rural Downstate areas. But, that’s been a national issue for a very long time.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:29 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Chicagoland Chamber comes out hard for megadevelopment near Soldier Field
Next Post: Chumming the sharks
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
Without immigrants coming here, who is going to buy the houses in these communities? Who is going to work in the nursing homes?
But the most anti-immigrant communities are the rural communities that could benefit the most by immigration. Go figure.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:43 am
–“There’s not some mass exodus going on,” he said. “I think this is important, because for many years there was a worry that somehow the county was just going to have accelerated loss, but that’s not what we see. People were using the loss of population here … as a hook to hang their favorite issue on. They would say it was because of taxes, or because of this and that. But the numbers don’t really support the idea that we have some kind of dire problem.”–
Woof, Tribbie news side winds up and delivers targeted haymaker on certain tronc deep-thinkers.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:45 am
Looks like *some* of you didn’t do your required daily thinking-about-Decatur. Now look at us.
Comment by lakeside Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:51 am
47th,
I know your previous comment fits your liberal spin, but there is much more to it. These were all manufacturing hubs that supplied good paying jobs. Look at the population increase in Decatur from the 1940s to 1970s. Since the 1980s these jobs left the country and their local economies were not large or diversified enough to be prepared for this. Now these cities are struggling to find a path in a globalized economy, where their workforce doesn’t have the skills or tools to adapt with the times. Immigrants are a small part of it, but please don’t make it the end all be all.
Comment by Almost the weekend Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:51 am
Sanctuary Cities could benefit with a move in of more people right? They will work and work hard, after all, they are after the American Dream
Comment by oohnonomous Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:53 am
The story also points out that it isn’t just Chicago losing population; most major cities are.
Comment by JackD Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 11:57 am
At the risk of being picky, there are 2 different population loss numbers for Decatur. 970 vs. 821; which is correct? And wouldn’t Springfield’s loss also be > 1%?
Comment by Bogey Golfer Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:02 pm
Thanks ATW, I was making an observation and noting an irony in a post about population loss in rural Illinois. I grew up in Kankakee in the 1970s. I’m aware of the myriad reasons why smaller rust belt cities have struggled as the tides of globalization sweep away small town Illinois.
I didn’t realize my four sentences above were an attempt to explain the entire phenomenon. That wasn’t my intent. Like I said, just an observation.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:04 pm
Jack D - do you consider Nashville or Atlanta to be major cities geez you guys are just refuseniks. The country is seeing s major migration to the States that are not punishing their residents with high taxes and rediculous progressive policies like sanctuary cities and never ending tax increases
Comment by Sue Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:04 pm
The entire developed world is facing the challenge of declining population as people don’t have children at a rate to replace themselves, much less grow the population. Immigrants who arrive also end up having fewer children, so there’s not really a way to avoid the issue. We’ll figure it out, just as we figured out how to accommodate a growing population.
Comment by NoGifts Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:06 pm
–I know your previous comment fits your liberal spin, but there is much more to it.–
Like Downstate Republicans playing ball with Rauner while he zeroed out MAPP grants and state funding for community colleges, plus accelerated defunding of public universities.
Robust vocational training and lifelong learning through the already established network of community colleges is essential to providing the workforce skills in rural areas that will attract private capital.
I’m not talking just so-called “white-collar jobs.” New manufacturing requires continued training and skills beyond high school.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:07 pm
47th Ward - in addition to ATW’s point about manufacturing jobs, maybe there are some unemployed people in Chicago that might move and work those jobs, especially if they paid decent wages? Take a look at Harvard’s George Borjas’ and others’ research on the effect illegal immigration has had on African-American employment and wages. Take a look at who often replaces workers after an immigration raid. I’m for granting amnesty for anyone in the country here now, and the economics of immigration are complex, but this reflexive “all immigration is good” thinking is the left’s version of “how can there be global warming - look how cold it is today!”
Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:09 pm
Looking at the Chicago MSA as a whole doesn’t paint a clear enough picture - for instance, if people are leaving the IL portion for the WI and IN portions of the MSA, a small net change could be still be hiding large local changes. Not sure if this is the case, but if it is, the news gets worse. The 2020 census is looming.
Comment by Stuntman Bob's Brother Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:10 pm
–geez you guys are just refuseniks.–
Jews in the Soviet Union not allowed to emigrate to Israel and the West?
You apparently refused to read down to Paral’s analysis. But he’s just a demographer, what does he know about population changes?
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:11 pm
Wordslinger I agree 100%, I mistook 47th assessment as a one size fits all approach. These downstate communities should be looking toward the future instead of the past and playing regional politics to gain personal exposure instead of what’s doing best for their communities.
Comment by Almost the weekend Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:14 pm
===for instance, if people are leaving the IL portion for the WI and IN portions of the MSA,===
Lake County IN lost 2.4% of its population, about 12,000 people, from 2010 to 2018, according to the 2018 estimate. So no, Merrillville and Crown Point haven’t swelled enough from a flood of IL refugees to make a difference in their own county, let alone the region.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:20 pm
Sue: I think you need to read what Wordslinger said at 11:45.
Comment by Skeptic Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:22 pm
Rural IL is absorbing immigrants in at least a few places.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-meatpacking/midwest-farm-town-transformed-by-immigration-thrives-idUSBRE85J0FA20120620
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:23 pm
Once news spreads that JB pays his staffers twice, Springfield population will rebound in no time.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:25 pm
I’m not here to make an argument about the “why” this is happening, but we can’t just comfort ourselves that this is happening everywhere and everything will be ok.
It’s not happening everywhere. There are 3 total population losing states since 2010. Connecticut (-1,432), West Virginia (-47,162), and Illinois (-89,552). There are a few more 2018 losers, but our trend is concerning. Five years in a row of losses is concerning. It’s a real problem, and we desperately need plan in place yet to start shoring this up.
Full easy to access data at https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=PEP_2018_PEPANNRES&prodType=table.
Comment by Stormfield Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:34 pm
That’s fair, Stormfield, but also need to make sure that we’re looking at percentages. From the numbers you posted, we lost about .7%, whereas WV lost about 2.6%. CT lost about .04.
Which is not to say it’s not concerning.
Comment by lakeside Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:40 pm
===Take a look at Harvard’s George Borjas’ and others’ research on the effect illegal immigration has had on African-American employment and wages===
Rubbish.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/01/the-great-immigration-data-debate/424230/
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:42 pm
lake county democrat, 47th ward never said illegal immigrant he/she said immigrant. When you argue a point that wasn’t really made, you are arguing in bad faith.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:44 pm
===but this reflexive “all immigration is good” thinking===
No where did I say anything remotely close to that, so please stop putting words in my mouth. Second, this comment section is about population loss in Illinois. In that context, it would seem that immigration might play a role in stemming the hollowing out of rural Illinois.
Read my comments or don’t, I don’t care. But please stop reading things into my comments that originate in your head, not mine.
And if the story I linked to above is too long for you, the short version is Borjas’ “study” has been debunked. He is cited primarily (and often) by nativists. He is what the old Soviets would call a useful idiot. Do yourself a favor, dig a little deeper next time. The truth is out there.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:49 pm
A few things people don’t look at. Baby boomers, me, moving to warm climate cuz we can’t take the weather. Millennials are not having kids, have dogs instead, and lack of immigrants. I explained to my friend who moved to Wisconsin to get away from our property taxes that he and his wife will now be taxed
on his pension and his wife’s retirement income and he kept insisting that he will have low property taxes. People have to look at the entire reason why people leave older people want warm weather, younger people want good schools. Like in private industry- you get what you pay for, low pay low work.
Comment by Popeye Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:56 pm
Is it ok if I blame Bruce Rauner and Scott Walker? I’m still here but if I’d left I’d blame their anti-public education policies. Seriously, it’s not what drives everyone but if your state universities are there for you and your kids, why live in that state? You like the weather? You have season tickets? Business is good? Unions are strong and apprenticeship programs are accessible to you and your family? All fine.
Comment by James Knell Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:56 pm
==It’s not happening everywhere.==
Yes. It’s a world wide phenomenon. https://medium.com/s/story/by-the-end-of-this-century-the-global-population-will-start-to-shrink-2f606c1ef088
This doesn’t explain totally why one region loses more people than another region, but worldwide the goal of having a large family has been replaced by the goal of having a smaller more prosperous family. Currently in developed countries people are not replacing themselves.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:01 pm
Thank Blago for moving a lot of jobs from Springfield to Chicago, the capitol city is still trying to recover from that savvy move.
Comment by Pick a Name Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:03 pm
“Without immigrants coming here, who is going to buy the houses in these communities? Who is going to work in the nursing homes?
But the most anti-immigrant communities are the rural communities that could benefit the most by immigration. Go figure.”
That is a rather simplistic analysis.
Depends on the immigrants. Are they skilled and can fill such jobs that now go unfilled? Do they bring large amounts of capital to start businesses that pay good livable wages that hire local citizens?
If so, yes immigration can be very useful.
But if the immigrants do not fulfill the above criteria, and perhaps just the opposite, the rural areas do not need more ‘imported’ poverty
Comment by Nonbeleiver Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:33 pm
Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 12:23 pm:
“Rural IL is absorbing immigrants in at least a few places.”
Don’t believe it just because Reuters writes it. Too often there is an agenda in such ‘reports’. This piece, like so many others, needs a lot more true investigative journalism.
Comment by Nonbeleiver Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:40 pm
===That is a rather simplistic analysis.===
No, it’s a pithy observation masquerading as a blog comment.
If the problem is shrinking population, what solutions can you think of, Einstein?
Everybody needs to believe in something, NB. I believe I’ll have another beer.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:47 pm
People are moving to the Sunbelt b/c of “better weather” not taxes
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:47 pm
==Since 2010, Cook County’s population has dropped by 14,533 people.==
Cook County demographics 2010:
Age 18-64 = 3,342,066
Age 65+ = 620,329
Cook County demographics 2017:
Age 18-64 = 3,321,145
Age 65+ = 743,329
Assuming those 18+ generate taxable income and 65+ live off non-taxable retirement income, Illinois has lost 144,000 state income tax payers in Cook County alone.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:54 pm
National trend is high migration to sunbelt and western metros while the midwest and some parts of the east coast decline in population.
People follow jobs. Warm weather is the cherry on top.
Headlines exaggerate the issue to get click. But long term, the lack of growth is something to think about - especially for downstate communities.
Comment by California Guy Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 1:59 pm
@ 47th Ward
Einstein??? What that all about?
Sorry that a rational, intelligent comment like I made hit on your sensitive nerve so badly that you have to result to at least what you perceive to be as a put down.
Comment by Nonbeleiver Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:00 pm
NB, you used my comment, which you mislabeled “analysis” as a straw man. So don’t try to claim yours was a rational, or God help us, intelligent comment. It was neither.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:04 pm
===a rational, intelligent comment like I made===
It was? Coulda fooled me. Try harder or leave.
Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:18 pm
–Illinois has lost 144,000 state income tax payers in Cook County alone.–
Not seeing 144K from the numbers you posted.
The difference in the 18-64 cohort looks to be 20K.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:26 pm
Wondering how the aging population fits into the equation. Agree loss of immigration and attractive job opportunities add to reduction, but does senior relocation exacerbate situation?
Comment by Vince Glothor Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:33 pm
Pick a Name -
Bigger negative impact on Springfield was Filan not replacing the ERIS …
Comment by Smitty Irving Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:37 pm
==Not seeing 144K from the numbers you posted.==
We lost 21,000 “working” individuals who I assume pay income taxes on their income. We gained 123,000 “non-working” individuals whose retirement income isn’t taxed. That’s where I got 144K in “lost” state income tax payers.
Granted, these are generalizations. And yes, retirees pay local taxes. But maybe we need to start tracking “taxable” population.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:52 pm
We are not anti immigrant down here. We welcome and encourage all who legally come here.
Comment by Captain Obvious Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 2:59 pm
–We lost 21,000 “working” individuals who I assume pay income taxes on their income. We gained 123,000 “non-working” individuals whose retirement income isn’t taxed. That’s where I got 144K in “lost” state income tax payers.–
What you’re missing is that over those years the non-taxpaying, under-18 crowd moved into the 18-64 job age category, replacing many of those who retired and left the tax rolls.
Hence, the net loss in job-age population and presumably income taxpayers is 20K, not 144K.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 3:05 pm
I just checked, and the Trib and IPI haven’t done the Illinois Exodus. They’re still in Chicago. Sigh.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 3:15 pm
Peoria is seeming smaller too
Comment by I Miss Bentohs Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 3:15 pm
“progressive policies like sanctuary cities”
If anyone here is leaving Chicago for that reason, let me know and I will give you a ride to the airport.
Comment by MickJ Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 3:30 pm
–Maybe JB should volunteer to take the 100k of illegals crossing each month.–
Applying for asylum is not illegal. If you can find the remote, you might turn the channel now and then.
Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 3:39 pm
One bright spot downstate. If the Amish in east central IL keep on reproducing at their current rate, there might be one or two million of them by the year 2200./s
https://medium.com/migration-issues/how-long-until-were-all-amish-268e3d0de87
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 4:52 pm
The issue is that we can’t afford ANY population loss in our current financial state. Also as Sue has noted cities with business friendly climates (red states) are gaining…go figure.
Comment by Doubtful Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 5:01 pm
Anonymous- take your head out of the sand- folks are moving to states like Florida because of plentiful jobs, low real estate taxes and no income taxes. The weather is a side benefit. Ever spend August in Florida?
Comment by Sue Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 5:15 pm
“The issue is that we can’t afford ANY population loss in our current financial state. Also as Sue has noted cities with business friendly climates (red states) are gaining…go figure.”
California keeps gaining jobs practically every month. Massachusetts, Colorado, Minnesota, etc. are all doing well. Red states are overwhelmingly lower wage and have less health insurance. Florida and Texas have no Medicaid expansion. Massachusetts has almost everyone covered by health insurance. Illinois not going to be a red state. So some can keep beating their heads against the wall or leave.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 6:40 pm
Losing population in this state has many reasons. The people that remain here know full well that with each person leaving their share of the state debt increases. It’s an uncomfortable situation to say the least.
Comment by Rural Survivor Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 9:28 pm
“Only nine of the 51 largest MSAs lost population.”
Why was Chicago one of only 9 MSAs to lose population?
As a former Chicago/Illinois resident I can say there are many locations that offer a better quality of life and better prospects. People move for a better life.
I would love to see an analysis of the delta in tax revenues and pension funding had Chicago population not shrunk by 0.2% but instead grew by ~0.7% annually for the last 10 years.
What is the ideal population growth rate for a city or state does anyone know? I think it is weird that that is not part of the discussion.
One strategy to Illinois state financial challenges is to grow the population and the tax base with it - while not increasing pension obligations. That appears to be off the table. Do current long term Illinois fiscal projections include population growth? If they do - uh oh.
The economy is on fire. What happens to Illinois population in recession? Unknowable until we one.
Increasing the population is easy if that is all you want.
Comment by Mike Royko Thursday, Apr 18, 19 @ 10:30 pm