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Researchers who in 2015 correctly predicted where the Zika outbreak would strike in the U.S. say they think the country’s next big measles outbreak is most likely to happen in Cook County.
A research project spearheaded by Sahotra Sarkar, a University of Chicago-educated professor at the University of Texas at Austin, revealed the 25 counties most at-risk for a widespread measles outbreak, like those seen in Washington, Oregon and New York. Sarkar and his former student, Lauren Gardner of Johns Hopkins University, determined Cook County was the most at-risk for an outbreak. That’s based largely on the number of airplane flights to Chicago from global destinations where parents increasingly don’t have their children vaccinated, he said.
“Cook County turns out to be as important as it is, mainly because of the presence of O’Hare Airport,” Sarkar said.
The study was published Thursday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. The research took about six months to complete, using risk assessment models similar to one Sarkar and Gardner used when they determined Zika, a mosquito-carried virus that can cause serious birth defects, would first affect Texas and Florida when it emerged as a global threat to pregnant women.
Rachel Rubin, a senior medical officer with the Cook County Health Department, wasn’t surprised by the study’s findings. The seven measles cases reported in Illinois this year likely stemmed from one person who was infected overseas and traveled back to Illinois, she said.
The top 25 counties are here. The study is here.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 10, 19 @ 9:34 am
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Once you lose that herd immunity, it’s the middle ages all over again.
Comment by efudd Friday, May 10, 19 @ 9:52 am
We should get that $24m up and running pronto.
Comment by lakeside Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:09 am
The terrifying part of this is people like me who have infants too young to receive the measles vaccine yet - there’s nothing we can do.
Comment by Chucky Jay Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:10 am
–The study was published Thursday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.–
Some grim irony there, as their irresponsible publishing of that quack back in 1998 super-charged the anti-vaxx insanity that lives on among social media hysterics.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2831678/
Comment by wordslinger Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:14 am
vaccinate. now. I’m so concerned about this that I contacted a doctor whose father was my pediatrician back in the day to see if there are records for me. she gave me a long explanation for why my immunity should be ok no matter what the vaccination situation, but I’m still freaking out over things like the German measles and my status. shun people who will not vaccinate.
Comment by Amalia Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:20 am
===but I’m still freaking out===
Ask your current physician to do a blood titer test to check if you’re still protected. They can measure the antibodies in your blood to ensure you still have immunity. It’s simple.
I needed to prove I was vaccinated to enroll in a class and didn’t have my records. The test was quick and easy. They gave me another tetanus shot just for fun.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:33 am
Amalia, I recently had my blood sampled for testing of the presence of MMR anti-bodies. I am positive for all 3. You could have the same tests done.
Comment by Pius Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:35 am
Adults too! It is important that everyone who can get vaccines (yes, there are a very few that medically can’t) get their shots. Read “The Devil in the Freezer”, describing how vaccinated populations acts as “firebreaks” to prevent or stop spread of diseases to epidemic/pandemic levels. Adults are more mobile than children, raising risk of being carriers even across towns.
Comment by revvedup Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:50 am
- efudd - Friday, May 10, 19 @ 9:52 am:
Once you lose that herd immunity, it’s the middle ages all over again.-
Excellent comment that needs to be repeated over and over again.
Comment by Nonbeleiver Friday, May 10, 19 @ 10:53 am
=The terrifying part of this is people like me who have infants too young to receive the measles vaccine yet - there’s nothing we can do.=
Totally agree, innocent victims of stupidity.
Comment by Because I said so.... Friday, May 10, 19 @ 11:01 am
I re-vaccinated the MMR at my local Jewel. It was easy and quick and my insurance paid for it. My grandniece, 18 months old, who I hope to visit soon, has leukemia. Her white blood cells are 40 per cubic mm when they should be 8000. A “Brady Bunch” reaction to measles isn’t in the cards for her if exposed.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Friday, May 10, 19 @ 11:03 am
There are also children and adults out there who had kidney or other transplants, and thus, can not be vaccinated, because the live virus in the vaccination can cause rejection. Thus they have to rely on herd immunity to protect them from the actual disease, which will also cause rejection.
Comment by Joe M Friday, May 10, 19 @ 11:46 am
Da Big Bad Wolf -
Your grandniece is why everyone who can medically be vaccinated should, and why all non-medical exemptions should be eliminated.
Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, May 10, 19 @ 12:05 pm
dear 47th ward and Pius, thank you so much for the information (multiple exclamation points). what nice posts.
Comment by Amalia Friday, May 10, 19 @ 3:03 pm