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*** UPDATED x1 *** COVID-19 roundup

Posted in:

*** UPDATE *** Oy…


Adams County Clerk Chuck Venvertloh said the county is scrambling to find a new polling place for the 2,700 voters. He hopes to have the new location by a 3:30 p.m. press conference. #twill https://t.co/xYwhOZNFaK

— Matt Hopf (@MHopfWHIG) March 9, 2020

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* NBC 5

A Missouri woman who recently tested positive for coronavirus took an Amtrak train from Chicago to St. Louis after returning from a study abroad trip to Italy, officials confirmed in a statement Sunday evening.

The 20-year-old woman, who is from St. Louis County, flew into Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport on March 3 on a return trip from Italy, where she was studying, according to officials.

After staying the night in Chicago with a friend, the woman then got onto an Amtrak train bound for St. Louis on March 4.

According to St. Louis public radio, the woman called the St. Louis County coronavirus hotline on March 6 to report that she was experiencing a high fever and a cough. She then tested positive for coronavirus, making hers the first case of the virus in the St. Louis area.

This is nuts

A test analyzed by the Missouri State Public Health Laboratory has been sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, officials said. It could take up to five days for the CDC to confirm the case.

Five days? What’s going to happen when the CDC is flooded with confirmation requests?

Oy

Two Catholic schools in suburban St. Louis have temporarily closed and some students at a third school have been told to stay home after the father of the first person in Missouri to become ill with the coronavirus attended a school dance with another child.

Amtrak also is cleaning a train the woman took to Missouri from Chicago.

St. Louis County Executive Sam Page said at a news conference Sunday that the patient’s family was told on Thursday to self-quarantine at their home in Ladue but didn’t follow health department instructions.

* Meanwhile

The American College of Cardiology has called off its upcoming conference at McCormick Place due to coronavirus concerns, adding to a run of cancellations at the Near South Side convention center because of the outbreak.

The Washington, D.C.-based association was set to host more than 29,000 visitors at its March 28-30 Scientific Session & Expo, which would have accounted for nearly 41,000 hotel room nights, according to the Metropolitan Pier & Exposition Authority, the agency that owns and operates the convention center. That makes it the second-biggest McCormick Place event to cancel so far because of the virus.

* Wall St. Journal

The concept of social distancing has been around for centuries, but its usefulness was bolstered after a landmark study in 2007, in the Journal of the American Medical Association, comparing how 43 different American cities fared during the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.

The researchers found that acting early with steps like quarantining the sick, closing schools and canceling public gatherings was associated with fewer deaths. Imposing several measures at once also helped. One of the slow responders, Philadelphia, suffered twice the death rate of St. Louis, where officials moved quickly.

“Social distancing and quarantine is an ancient practice that has been tried and tested through the ages and has survived because it works,” said Osman Dar, a global health-systems expert at Chatham House, a U.K. think tank. “In the face of an unknown virus or illness it is the most effective means of interrupting and slowing transmission.”

Implemented too late, however, social distancing might be ineffective. A wave of school closures across Michigan in response to the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic did little to dampen the spread of the disease, according to a 2015 study by researchers at the Universities of Michigan and North Carolina. The likely explanation, said the authors, was that most schools closed as a result of high absenteeism, suggesting they acted only after a significant number of staff and students had fallen ill.

Another challenge: There is no clear consensus on the right moment to start with social distancing. “Hitting that sweet spot is very, very hard,” said Howard Markel, director of the Center for the History of Medicine at the University of Michigan, who led the 43-city study and was involved in the school-district research. “You’re getting your information a step or two behind the microbe’s spread. Early is better but you do risk being too early and costing a great deal of money.”

While it is widely accepted by global health experts that social distancing, when implemented early enough, limits death from serious infectious diseases, it is less clear whether it brings down the overall caseload. Still, simply spreading the cases out over a longer period—known by epidemiologists as “flattening the curve”—is valuable because it prevents a surge of patients from overwhelming clinics and hospitals.

…Adding… Whoa

As the U.S. battles to limit the spread of the contagious new coronavirus, the number of health care workers ordered to self-quarantine because of potential exposure to an infected patient is rising at a rapid pace. In Vacaville, Calif., alone, one case — the first documented instance of community transmission in the U.S. — left more than 200 hospital workers under quarantine and unable to work for weeks.

* More…

* San Francisco Bans Non-Essential Public Gatherings At City Facilities For 2 Weeks: The City and County of San Francisco has banned “non-essential group events” at any city-owned facilities for the next two weeks because of concerns about the spread of coronavirus, according to an order Saturday signed by the county’s top health officer.

* At least 8 US states have declared a state of emergency: Authorities have confirmed at least 21 deaths in three states; 18 in Washington, two in Florida and one in California. Those states were among the first to issue emergency declarations. Since then, Kentucky, New York, Maryland, Utah and Oregon have declared states of emergency, respectively.

* Coronavirus case at CPAC brings outbreak closer to Trump, threatening to upend his routine amid reelection bid

* Cuomo battles with Trump administration as more schools cancel classes: “C.D.C., wake up, let the states test, let private labs test, let’s increase as quickly as possible our testing capacity so we can identify the positive people,” Mr. Cuomo said. President Trump fired back on Twitter overnight, saying that his administration had been consistent in its public statements while attacking the governor of New York and his brother. “There are no mixed messages, only political weaponization by people like you and your brother, Fredo!” Mr. Trump wrote. The president was referring to Fredo Corleone, the most ineffectual of the fictional brothers in the movie “The Godfather” in his response to Mr. Cuomo and his brother, Chris Cuomo, an anchor on CNN.

* 7th case of coronavirus in Illinois is Chicago man in his 60s, appears unrelated to other cases, health officials announce: Dr. Allison Arwady, the city’s public health commissioner, said an investigation is ongoing, but this coronavirus case is not linked to travel and has no connection to the high school case reported Friday. This “may be” the first case of coronavirus spreading in the community, Arwady said. “We have been preparing for this potential person-to-person spread,” she said.

* At Harvard forum, three who know warn of ‘most daunting virus’ in half a century

* Chicago losing out on almost 100,000 visitors this month as another big event — the fourth — cancels because of coronavirus worries

* Loyola Academy cancels classes after student had contact with coronavirus patient

* Decontamination underway at Vaughn Occupational High School after CPS employee contracts coronavirus

* Bloomington couple waiting out Grand Princess cruise ship hit by coronavirus

* Some nursing homes restricting visits due to coronavirus fears

* Dow drops 1,500 points as oil price plunge shocks markets

* Capitol Hill Installs Precautions, Contingency Plans For Coronavirus Outbreak

* DC church congregation asked to self-quarantine

* How to Coronavirus-Proof Your Home—and Your Life

* Coronavirus fallout pounds Chicago’s logistics industry

* Amid coronavirus fears, the CDC told schools to plan for remote learning. That’s harder than it sounds.

* During a pandemic, states’ patchwork of crisis plans could mean uneven care

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:32 am

Comments

  1. My company lifted limits on working from home at our Chicago and Boston offices today, to do our social distancing part. This is a trial run for if/when we need to make it mandatory.

    We’ve always had infrastructure for splitting time between home and office, and even for companies who can work remotely, setting that infrastructure up takes time.

    I wonder if coronavrius will permanently change working habits in some industries when it is all over.

    Comment by ChicagoVinny Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:40 am

  2. Interested in knowing if McCormick Place can or does carry any type on business interruption insurance? If they could buy it and didn’t, that would add insult to this serious injury.

    Comment by don the legend Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:41 am

  3. Wash. Your. Hands.

    At a retail store this weekend. A father with his toddler son used the toilet and left w/o washing up.
    With everything going on, not to mention, what are you teaching your kids?
    This was in Missouri.

    Comment by efudd Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:42 am

  4. Terribly selfish actions by that Missouri family. They should have an order slapped on them that they will be arrested if they leave their house.

    Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:43 am

  5. Still think this thing is being blown way out of proportion.

    Comment by Just Another Anon Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:49 am

  6. So if social distancing measures are only really effective early on, and the president won’t pull the trigger, maybe the governors can do what’s necessary.

    Comment by JB13 Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:49 am

  7. When leadership doesn’t take a problem seriously, neither will the followers of that leadership.

    The catholic church has already put out guidance that they are not doing anything other than changing up some rituals. It should be no surprise that their followers are not taking this seriously.

    Locally, I’m seeing the same thing. There seems to be a “It’s no big deal just get over it already” mindset.

    The spread in of this in the US is going to be outsized to most other modernized countries, because there are simply too many people in the US only caring about themselves.

    It’s great that I’m healthy enough to likely survive this if I catch it, what’s not great is that I have elderly parents and friends of mine have elderly parents. I don’t want to see any of them put at risk or die, so I take the precautions to prevent that.

    But what I see in the world around me are people who think they are “toughing it out” by going about their lives as if nothing has changed even if they are infected. That level of selfishness is common, and that’s what worries me most of all.

    Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:51 am

  8. We don’t know how bad this is because no one is doing widespread testing yet, and the uncertainty due to a lack of information is creating panic in the markets.

    What we are seeing on other continents is very bad, and the lack of data here and lack of action leads us to believe it will be probably worse here.

    Wealthy, private schools are closing in Suburbs of Chicago and St. Louis when there is even the possibility of an infected person. They are not waiting for confirmed cases, but erring on the side of protecting human life.

    Not so with JB Pritzker and Lori Lightfoot.

    Comment by Charlie Brown Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:52 am

  9. ===blown way out of proportion===

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:53 am

  10. Rick Cotton, executive director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, has the new coronavirus, Governor Andrew Cuomo said at a press briefing.

    Comment by Rich Hill Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:53 am

  11. Just Anon: “Still think this thing is being blown way out of proportion.”

    What will it take for you to think otherwise?

    Comment by anonamoose Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:54 am

  12. TheInvisibleMan-

    Exactly. Don’t have time for a pandemic.If anything, this highlights just how self-centered we’ve become.
    Really makes you wonder how we would act if we had to fight a two-ocean war again.

    Comment by efudd Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:55 am

  13. Need to find one of those wooden yardsticks they used to hand out at the State Fair…so we can keep our distance. =Ron== Agree it was selfish…But,if you are going to confine people,and if they don’t have sick days since the “Market Place” has decided we don’t need to mandate them, then you need to compensate them per the US constitutions takings clause. You’re depriving them of property for the public good. A paycheck is property in my view.

    Comment by Anotheretiree Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:56 am

  14. == A Missouri woman who recently tested positive for coronavirus took an Amtrak train from Chicago to St. Louis==

    Well at least she went straight to St Louis and wasn’t sharing a train car with people getting on and off at various points across the Sta….wait. Uh oh.

    Comment by fs Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:00 am

  15. The mortality rate for this seems to be about twice what the flu is (3.4% for COVID-19, according to WHO), but the severity of the symptoms seems comparable to the flu.

    I have to agree that it seems to be blown out of proportion, as is the case with almost every news story today. CBS and NBC evening news hype it as if it’s the Black Plague.

    If I were a grade school child, I’d be scared witless by all the Chicken Little coverage.

    Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:01 am

  16. -But,if you are going to confine people,and if they don’t have sick days since the “Market Place” has decided we don’t need to mandate them, then you need to compensate them per the US constitutions takings clause.-

    That is not this situation. This is a family from a wealthy area of St Louis going to a school dance. They have no excuse.

    Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:01 am

  17. Do we have any results from the Sentinel surveys ? This is the sort of information that seems to be slowing it in Korea. It acts like a tornado watch.
    Helps in social distancing.

    Comment by Not a Billionaire Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:03 am

  18. Does it make any sense for the legislature to reconvene on March 18? Seems prudent to hit pause. Very few bills actually need to be passed, other than the budget at some point.

    Comment by Moe Berg Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:04 am

  19. Right now we cannot even conduct enough testing to figure out who has the corona virus (and a President who is actively impeding the testing process). Cannot possibly contain the disease when we don’t know who has it.

    Best analogy I heard is a wildfire. If you can contain it early, you have a chance to stop it before the damage is too great. If not, google Australia.

    Finally, the quarantining of health care professionals could become a health care crisis of epic proportions.

    Comment by SAP Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:05 am

  20. Part of me thinks how good we have it today with disease. Covid-19 is bad, but not like polio. I remember lining up at the high school with tables set up on the grass. Hundreds of us were lifted up on the table, given a shot, and sent on our way.

    In our household we have four at risk; active cancer, cancer in remission, chronic asthma, and fibromyalgia. Not terrified but increasingly cautious. No plane trips and probably skipping two large dinners this month.

    Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:06 am

  21. @S.C.

    —The mortality rate for this seems to be about twice what the flu is (3.4% for COVID-19, according to WHO), but the severity of the symptoms seems comparable to the flu.—

    Isn’t the death rate for the flu .1%?
    Wouldn’t that make the death rate for COVID-19 23 times greater?

    Comment by Numbers Guy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:10 am

  22. The mortality varies. In the country with the most tests Korea it’s 0.6% flu is only 0.1% so a minimum 6 times. But testing is a joke everywhere but there.
    That is why I ask any results from Champaign.

    Comment by Not a Billionaire Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:15 am

  23. -Isn’t the death rate for the flu .1%?-

    The challenge with Covid19 is that the symptoms can be as minimal as a runny nose. Hence, those people are not reporting, nor are they part of the denominator for calculating the mortality rate.

    Comment by Downstate Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:16 am

  24. I stand corrected on the flu mortality rate, but here’s a quote from the CDC for perspective:

    “So far, the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000.”

    The CDC also says 31 million people have had the flu this season, which comes down to 1 in 11 or 12 of the U.S. population.

    As with the flu, highest risk people for COVID-19 seem to be the elderly and those who are in a weakened condition from other health problems.

    Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:26 am

  25. ==Ron== I should’ve made it clearer…I was talking in general about confining people.Not just this wealthy St Louis family. But even they would be due compensation. Death rate for Covid-19 appears to be .6% Based on the cruise ship in Japan which provided a controlled population. .6 is six times the seasonal flu. And there is no vaccine and no herd immunity. With 22 deaths, that implies an infected U.S. population of 3,666.

    Comment by Anotheretiree Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:26 am

  26. ==The mortality rate for this seems to be about twice what the flu is (3.4% for COVID-19, according to WHO), but the severity of the symptoms seems comparable to the flu…

    If I were a grade school child, I’d be scared witless by all the Chicken Little coverage.==

    Actually, the mortality rate for those over 80 is close to 15%, while few children get infected, and those that do tend to have mild cases. So the people who should be worried the most are probably the ones with their heads in the sand…

    Comment by LakeCo Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:27 am

  27. I’m in the over 65 group, so basically when I consider whether to go someplace, I use Butch Cassidy’s gem of advice (to Sundance regarding the lawmen closing in on the cliff and the river below). “Would you make that jump if you didn’t have to??”

    Comment by Sayitaintso Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:28 am

  28. -But even they would be due compensation.-

    Not necessarily. That’s for the courts of the particular jurisdiction to determine.

    Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:32 am

  29. Someone who knowingly has Covid 19 and breaks quarantine assaults everyone they contact. Forget compensation, think jail.

    Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:38 am

  30. I certainly hope it is overblown as opposed to the opposite. I also would hope that while this may not be the ‘Big One”, who’s to say that there will never be one such. Use this as a Learning Situation, and nail down absolute ‘truths’ about such occurrences, so we/our kids will be better advised and protected if it comes to pass.

    Comment by Sayitaintso Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:38 am

  31. Like Moe, I have concerns about session. We are approaching the budget making season which means thousands of people are part of “lobby days” at the Statehouse and hundreds of kids taking bus trips to Springfield as part of school trips.

    On any given Wens in late April through May, you could have several thousand people at the Statehouse, then toss in the Howlett and Stratton Bldgs and you have the makings of a cesspool of germs. exposing people from all over the state.

    Are lobby days and school trips really needed right now?

    Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:45 am

  32. ==Someone who knowingly has Covid 19 and breaks quarantine assaults everyone they contact. Forget compensation, think jail.== Agreed, but the scary part is how many people who are spreading the disease and don’t even know they are infected.

    Comment by SAP Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:48 am

  33. Thank you, Rich, for rounding up all these stories. And thanks to the commenters, also, for your wisdom and input.

    Comment by Cheswick Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:55 am

  34. Protocols to get tested are crazy. You have to meet a defined set of criteria and then Public Health works with to identify location for testing. A family member had to go through this process. Test on Thursday and results on Monday. Friends in Europe had results the day after testing (unfortunately they were positive). The US is sorely behind due to focus on the Federal level of controlling the message instead of controlling the virus.

    Comment by illinifan Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:56 am

  35. From the examples provided here and elsewhere, does it seem people do not want to be personally inconvenienced?
    Just the one flying back from Italy could be a potential explosion of transmission.

    Comment by Touré's Latte Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 10:58 am

  36. 1. Chicago / IL is not doing enough.

    2. Chicago / IL is probably winning the “low bar” award by doing relatively more, but we may just be benefiting from the virus thus far being spread more on the coasts. They did a swab of like 200 high-risk candidates last week in Chicago (I know, not enough, but it was people who seemed high risk with possible symptoms). Looks like maybe one positive return from that so far.

    There may not be much Covid in IL … yet. But we have to do better and take advantage of the extra time we’ve been lucky to get.

    Comment by ZC Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:10 am

  37. CBS Sunday Morning had a great piece on the 1918 Flu Pandemic and the US Government response. I agree that COVID-19 may never become that deadly, but there are still lessons to be learned from past responses to a major global issue.

    From the transcript:

    The first serious outbreak in the United States began at Camp Funston (now Fort Riley) in Kansas. As infected soldiers from across the country made their way to the trenches in France, the virus spread.

    But the nation wasn’t told.

    A year earlier President Woodrow Wilson had rammed through Congress the Sedition Act, making it a crime to say or publish anything negative that would affect the war effort.

    Barry said, “Wilson created what was called the Committee for Public Information. The architect of that committee said, ‘Truth and falsehood are arbitrary terms. The force of an idea lies in its inspirational value. It matters very little if it is true or false.’”

    Correspondent Martha Teichner asked, “Was that a license to lie to the American public?”

    “It was precisely that,” said Barry. “In the United States, you had national public health leaders saying such things as ‘This is ordinary influenza by another name.’ At the local level the same kind of thing was occurring.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-1918-flu-pandemic-a-cautionary-tale/

    Comment by Anon221 Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:11 am

  38. Also, trying to find small glimmers of hope: I’ve rarely been more glad, Chicago has too many hospitals. If it gets to be very bad of course our respirators will get overwhelmed, but the city is again in relative better shape than a lot of places around the world.

    Comment by ZC Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:14 am

  39. Quick fun with numbers and history:
    Spanish flu infected 28% of the US population (500,000 to 675,000 died)
    Current US Population @ 327 mil
    Covid-19 transmission rate of 2.2 (about same as Spanish flu)
    Say Covid-19 infects at same rate = 91.5 mil
    Covid-19 death rate (3% said to be too high) so let’s just go with 2% = 1.8 mil deaths

    In 1918 St. Louis acted aggressively in response to Spanish flu; Philadelphia did not: https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/st-louis-saw-the-deadly-spanish-flu-epidemic-coming-shutting/article_52e5e46d-1f30-5f31-a706-786785692bb5.html

    Now is the time when government, local and otherwise, must act. Once you have severe outbreaks in a region, its really too late to mitigate the impacts.

    Comment by fedup Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:18 am

  40. Fissures widen between White House and health agencies over coronavirus

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/09/politics/cdc-policy-test-kits-coronavirus/index.html

    Comment by Anon221 Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:24 am

  41. If the fed’s were serious about containment, they would immediately close our borders, suspend all forms of travel (planes, trains, buses), and ban all gatherings of more than 3 people.

    Comment by Angry Republican Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:41 am

  42. === The mortality rate for this seems to be about twice what the flu is (3.4% for COVID-19, according to WHO), but the severity of the symptoms seems comparable to the flu.

    I have to agree that it seems to be blown out of proportion. ===

    Mortality rate is not the only important factor.

    The Reproductive Rate is actually the more important number.

    That is the number of infected people each infected person is likely to infect.

    The reproductive rate of the seasonal flu is 1.3, meaning each infected person infects an average of 1.3 people, but milder weather and less person-to-person contact drops it below 1, to about .8, which is why the seasonal flu dissipates.

    The Reproductive Rate of coronavirus is 2.2, meaning that each person infects 2.2 people on average, who then infect 2.2 people on average, who then infect 2.2 people on average, and so on and so on.

    So, after 20 reproductive cycles, a reproductive rate of 1.3 gives you 146 newly infected people, while a reproductive rate of 2.2 gives you 3.2 million newly infected people.

    It’s not just worse or twice as bad, but exponentially worse that the seasonal flu. See “The Trouble with Tribbles.”

    Moreover, that reproductive rate (R0) of 2.2 means that milder weather, which brings with it greater social distancing, might only reduce the R0 to 1.5 or so. It will still be spreading faster than the seasonal flu and continue to spread probably until it runs out of people to infect.

    Which could be 40 percent or better of the adult US population.

    Also, we have a vaccine for the flu, but not for this, not yet.

    Comment by Happy Thoughts Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 11:58 am

  43. Will schools require corona vaccines to enter school once we have one?

    Comment by Ed Equity Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:00 pm

  44. The ACLU and Jesse Jackson won’t allow jail for spreading corona, because people have rights.

    Comment by Tom Willis Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:04 pm

  45. So far it looks like the number of confirmed cases in the US doubles every four days or so. If you know how math works, keep an eye on that doubling number.

    We have 213 confirmed cases today. At a doubling rate of four days we could have 1.7 million confirmed cases by mid-May.

    That’s not being alarmist. That’s math.

    https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:05 pm

  46. == we have a vaccine for the flu==

    The “flu vaccine” only accounts for some strands, not all of them

    Comment by fs Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:09 pm

  47. ===close our borders, suspend all forms of travel (planes, trains, buses), and ban all gatherings of more than 3 people.===

    Under what authority? Martial law?

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:20 pm

  48. ZC -

    Cook County has a population of 5.2 million.

    We’ll need about 90,000 hospital beds based on current hospitalization rates (1 in 6 infected persons) and durations (14 days).

    There are only about 30,000 hospital beds in the whole state and half of them are already full.

    You are experiencing the false sense of comfort that comes from the firm belief that the other half of the life boat is going to sink faster than your half.

    Italy has the third best health system in the world and their hospitals are full already.

    Comment by Math Counts Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:29 pm

  49. Not my bailiwick, but the concern needs to be focused on what happens to the health care infrastructure when a virus to which no one has any immunity strikes the community.

    Sure, symptoms are flu-like and for most people no big deal. But millions more people will get this than annual because we have no immunity. Basically, if you are adequately exposed, you WILL contract the virus because your body has no idea how to prevent it.

    Now, multiply the number of severe and fatal annual flu cases that occur (and it’s greatly lessened because of immunizations and natural immunity) times the number of people who will get this virus. Hospitals can’t deal with it, particularly since their own employees are going to get sick.

    Good luck finding prompt treatment if you have an unrelated heart attack, stroke, trauma, burst appendix, etc. We need to do whatever isolation we can to slow the rate of exposures so that the medical infrastructure can better handle it and our leaders need to do a better job of explaining what we are trying to prevent.

    Comment by northsider (the original) Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:40 pm

  50. So the population of Chicago and the burbs is what, 8-9 million people. There are 7 cases reported, 2 have fully recovered and there are 2 sets of husband and wife with the virus.

    Comment by Pick a Name Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 12:46 pm

  51. “and ban all gatherings of more than 3 people.” So you’re going to arrest Gramdma and aunt Bertha for going to church?

    Comment by Skeptic Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 1:00 pm

  52. ==There are 7 cases reported==

    What’s your point?

    China went from 1 case to locking down 11 million in 5 weeks.

    The number of cases in Italy went form 4,636 on Friday 5,883 in 24 hrs. Three weeks ago they were at 14.

    The data from all countries show a doubling of cases every 6 days.

    Comment by jimbo Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 1:04 pm

  53. 7 confirmed cases could be more than 1.8 million in Illinois in less than four months if the doubling rate is six days.

    Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 1:08 pm

  54. ===After staying the night in Chicago with a friend, the woman then got onto an Amtrak train bound for St. Louis on March 4.===

    And that train makes numerous stops between Chicago and St. Louis, including Springfield, and people get off at every stop.

    Comment by Nick Name Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 1:20 pm

  55. So far, only random testing of a low number of people. Does anyone really believe only 7 cases currently exist in this state?

    Comment by Wensicia Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 1:39 pm

  56. === and continue to spread probably until it runs out of people to infect.===
    Are you saying people can’t get infected with COVID-19 over and over again?

    Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 3:57 pm

  57. Johns Hopkins has a running tally of USA infections, 607 as of today.

    The Chicago area had 5 six days ago and has 7 today, although 2 have completely recovered, and two sets of husband and wife have it.

    Comment by Pick a Name Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 4:29 pm

  58. === Johns Hopkins has a running tally of USA infections, 607 as of today.

    The Chicago area had 5 six days ago and has 7 today, although 2 have completely recovered, and two sets of husband and wife have it.===

    Then - Pick a Name - the stock market tumbling is this POTUS’ fault, not the virus, as you say it is…

    Can’t claim what you’re claiming, and claim any good or bad by *any* POTUS when it comes to stock market levels.

    I’ll let you think on all that. Take your time.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 4:33 pm

  59. ==So far, only random testing of a low number of people. Does anyone really believe only 7 cases currently exist in this state?==

    That’s why it is called Schrodinger’s Virus (h/t MisterJayEm)–if you don’t test someone, he or she is not “officially” infected.

    Comment by SAP Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 4:37 pm

  60. @Skeptic If grandma and aunt Bertha are baby boomers or older, they are at much higher risk of dying from Covid-19.

    Comment by Angry Republican Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 4:38 pm

  61. Willy, c’mon, you are sharper than that. We live in a global economy.

    Comment by Pick A Name Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 6:54 pm

  62. - Pick A Name -

    I’d let it be. I’ll let you choose which comment you tout the stock market and thank Trump for it.

    Doubling down will only embarrass you. This is me helping.

    I’d recommend not connecting the stock market to Trump further.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 7:04 pm

  63. And I thought you had an Econ degree from UIUC Willy

    Comment by Pick A Name Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 8:48 pm

  64. - Pick a Name -

    === - Pick a Name - Friday, Feb 21, 20 @ 4:03 pm

    Trump economy even helping Illinois.===

    On February 20th, stocks closed at …29,219.98

    Today’s close… 23,851.02

    Let it be, it won’t play out well. You’ll look ridiculous. I’m helping.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 9, 20 @ 9:01 pm

  65. I guess you don’t have an Econ degree, my bad.

    Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 6:36 am

  66. === I guess you don’t have an Econ degree, my bad.===

    The Trump economy as you tout has the stock market down 20%

    You should worry about Trump, and his Warton Schooling as he takes credit for the stock market

    If you were 1/10th as smart as you think you are, you’d mock Trump for claiming the stock market is Trump’s doing, good or bad.

    You don’t. I’m more worried for you, lol

    Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 7:22 am

  67. Stock market up 600 points right now.

    Guess Trump waved his magic wand, just as he did increasing the manufacturing jobs.

    BTW, it is the Wharton school, one of the best business schools in the land.

    Comment by Pick a Name Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 7:49 am

  68. === Stock market up 600 points right now.

    Guess Trump waved his magic wand, just as he did increasing the manufacturing jobs.

    BTW, it is the Wharton school, one of the best business schools in the land.===

    You truly can’t be helped. You’d rather look foolish, if you can support Trump. Wow.

    To the post,

    Boston’s St. Patrick’s Day parade has been canceled. Southie might not recover.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 7:53 am

  69. == Stock market up 600 points right now. ==
    The rooster who took credit for the sunrise is outraged to be blamed for the sunset. Proverb

    Comment by 17% Solution Tuesday, Mar 10, 20 @ 6:05 pm

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