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* Cor Strategies bills itself as a center-right political firm. They’ve worked for several Republican campaigns here. Here’s their analysis…
(T)his 2020 Primary Election has shown some alarming trends Illinois Republicans should be worried about when it comes to voter turnout.
Statewide this year, only 34% of primary voters chose to pull a Republican ballot. In raw numbers, over 1 million more voters pulled a Democratic ballot than a Republican ballot this year. Compare that to the last similar election, which was 2004 with George W. Bush on the ballot, when Republicans pulled 42% of Primary Election ballots statewide.
The story is the same everywhere you look – Republicans are losing ground.
In suburban Cook and the collar counties, a minuscule 21% of Primary Election ballots were Republican. These numbers are less than half of what they were the last time we had a Republican president on the ballot for re-election: 43%.
In 2004, Lake County Republican voters made up 51% of the ballots cast in the Primary Election. Fast forward to 2020 and Republican ballots counted for only an alarming 22% of the vote. Only 22,488 Republican votes were cast, compared to 81,746 Democratic votes.
In central Illinois, Champaign County went from Republicans making up 54% of the primary vote in this key county in 2004 to under 25% of ballots this primary election.
Even the traditionally-Republican stronghold of DuPage County saw a massive dip. The west suburban county used to be so important that in November of 2000, then Governor George W. Bush made a huge appearance at the College of DuPage with over 25,000 supporters in an effort to actually win Illinois. In 2004, during the Primary Election, Republicans pulled 58% of the Primary Election ballots, nearly 87,000 voters. This year, Republicans in DuPage County only made up 26% of the ballots cast, down nearly 50,000 voters.
We chose 2004 as our comparison because it was the last similar election when a Republican president was up for re-election with nominal-to-no opposition. Things look even worse if you compare this year’s results to more recent primaries. In the 2016 primary, 1,460,341 Republican ballots were cast compared to 531,706 this year. Even the 2018 gubernatorial primary saw significantly more Republican activity (739,834 votes cast), despite the fact that turnout is normally lower in non-presidential elections.
So what do these abysmal Republican turnout numbers mean? Well, to us, it’s pretty clear: if we don’t get our collective act together, 2020 might be an even worse year for Republicans than 2018 was.
We’ve been mentioning these numbers to center-right leaders since last Tuesday, and we’ve frankly been a bit shocked at the collective yawn we’ve received in response. We’ve heard every excuse under the sun, from the coronavirus to more interesting races on the Democratic ballot to Election Day being St. Patrick’s Day (seriously). While the virus certainly had an effect on older voters, many of whom trend right, the city of Chicago had massive problems administering this election, which undoubtedly suppressed votes in this deep blue city. Voters crossing over to vote in the opposition’s primary is not a new phenomena in 2020, this happens every election (for instance in IL-3 when Republicans crossed over in 2018 to save Dan Lipinski). And bars were closed on Election Day, so this excuse doesn’t hold water (or green beer).
It’s time to get our heads out of the sand. Republicans are not just losing ground; we’re getting clobbered. No more excuses, no more pointing fingers, and no more sitting around hoping that dark money contributions will save us. Things are not going to get better on their own. Voter turnout projections for November show us losing even more ground, especially when you consider the massive funding advantage Democrats enjoy.
Time to roll up our sleeves. The General Election is less than 8 months away.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:08 pm
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Thanks Kanye, very cool!
Comment by Anon Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:16 pm
Here’s an idea - call out the federal administration on their abysmal response to Covid-19.
Comment by LoyalVirus Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:18 pm
=== It’s time to get our heads out of the sand. Republicans are not just losing ground; we’re getting clobbered. No more excuses, no more pointing fingers, and no more sitting around hoping that dark money contributions will save us. Things are not going to get better on their own. Voter turnout projections for November show us losing even more ground, especially when you consider the massive funding advantage Democrats enjoy.===
Welp…
I’ll leave it at “Welp” for now.
Raunerites Shaw and Schneider have this, amirite?
“Exactly right”
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:18 pm
What a bunch of doom and gloom. We have Oberweis and Ives to bring us back to the promised land /s
Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:19 pm
Rauner + Trump.. =’s death of a party…and one guy sits back and watches it all with glee
Comment by NotRich Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:22 pm
What are the GOP Primary numbers from “The Republic of Halbrook” ??
Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:23 pm
This is why getting the Green Party on as many statewide ballots is a Republican imperative.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:24 pm
Huh? There isn’t a republican party in Illinois. Hasn’t been since 2000.
Comment by Jack Sprat Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:25 pm
DuPage Saint, Don’t forget Mary Miller, who is guaranteed to take her anti-godless socialism and all my kids love Trump message to DC.
Comment by Steve Rogers Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:25 pm
Here is a crazy idea… present a compelling platform with honest normal people. I want to vote republican, but the options my party gives me nowadays is crazy vs. crazier. Do I believe that the democrats have the necessary stones to right the economic and fiscal ship in this state, but the Republicans have not been a viable alternative.
Comment by Funtimes Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:26 pm
Good luck with that, I think you have lost some of us for a great amount of time.
Comment by OneMan Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:28 pm
If only Illinois Dems could run the country
Comment by Sen from Madigastan Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:29 pm
Maybe try leaning harder into the ignorance, xenophobia and racism?
Comment by LakeCo Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:29 pm
I realize it’s merely anecdotal but my family and my wife’s family all went from staunch Republican to staunch Democrat.
We’re in that demographic- suburban, college educated, white collar. The rhetoric and hypocrisy of the GOP has forced us out.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:32 pm
(Sigh)
=== Hasn’t been since 2000===
Stop with your ignorance.
At one point there were 8 members of Congress, Republican.
There was one US Senator.
The GOP Raunerites had the Governor and LG, and the GOP had Judy Baar Topinka.
This ridiculousness folks want perpetrated, one being there’s no chance for the GOP, or the other it’s just a Blue State is for the snidely smug and the lazy negative.
If anything, this piece makes me hope if there’s an implosion and finally both the Raunerites and Slytherins retreat, I can find leadership I can want to be proud to want to build a party again with, and do it right.
Schneider and Shaw aren’t those folks.
“Ives and Oberweis“ types can’t be those folks for it to work
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:33 pm
Right now Donald Trump is the face of the Republican Party. Republicans have doubled and tripled down across the country supporting Trump even despite a massive mishandling of a major pandemic. Outside of downstate, the GOP will lose big again in 2020 in Illinois. Once Trump is gone, whether in 2020 or 2024, the GOP can begin the long rebuild of the Republican brand ahead of them.
Comment by CubsFan16 Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:38 pm
“It’s time to get our heads out of the sand.”
Out of the sand?
You wish.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:47 pm
The Republican Party has painted itself into a corner. People who could compete in the general cannot make it through the primary.
I used to say that my family had been in the party of Lincoln since Lincoln was a Whig. Not true now.
Comment by Last Bull Moose Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:48 pm
Clobbered??? No. We are just tired of all this winning.
Comment by dirksen Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:48 pm
numbers from Bailey county 2829 republican 517 democrat ballots cast
Comment by leonard Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:50 pm
Where is Bailey County?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:52 pm
That they seem shocked by this shows how out of touch they are with reality. Many of us gave up on the GOP in Illinois a long time ago. Have voted GOP since I was first old enough to vote. Doesn’t matter what we do. Chicagoland is just too blue. Any decent turnout in IL will result in blue wins for decades to come. Wish it weren’t so, but I’m no longer going to be bothered by it. Just looking forward to the day I can retire and move elsewhere - hopefully before all the money runs out.
Comment by DownstateMeh Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:53 pm
=== Chicagoland is just too blue. Any decent turnout in IL will result in blue wins for decades to come. ===
Raja is running unopposed, a seat with Crane at its genesis at one point… how about the 10th district, who exactly is taking on Schneider?
Friend, “Chicagoland” isn’t the problem. The problem is Rosemary Mulligans and Mark Beaubiens “others” see as not in line with the 51st staters.
There’s no “two states”, there’s a party now that is old, while, angry, and rural… and lacks tolerance for the 80% Reagan Rule.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:57 pm
===Just looking forward to the day I can retire and move elsewhere===
Lemme guess… to be near like thinking folks… you know… not those urban “Chicagoland” folks…
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:58 pm
Get collective act together and roll up sleeves is the solution offered? No insight into the cause or specifics of how to get their act together? Maybe a platform that aligns with the majority of voters. Not even better messaging is offered.
Comment by Blooms of Spring Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:59 pm
I am the Dem precinct committeeperson for a small rural township. I have seen this trend in my traditionally Republican twp. In 2018, for the first time in my experience, Dems out-polled the Republicans in the Primary, that gap increased this year with the Republican ballots pulled going down and the Dem ballots continuing to increase.
I would like to think it is due to my efforts, but it seems to be a trend across the area.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:00 pm
Downstate. Here I sit in the heart of blue Chicago, waiting to vote for a decent republican. Rauner betrayed my hope. Metro Chicago is lost for as long as Raunerism and Trumpism remain synonymous with Republican.
Comment by Funtimes Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:00 pm
I think you miss the part were the population is shrinking in Illinois and those leaving are predominately Republican (at least the people I know). People aren’t changing parties as much as they are changing location. See DownstateMeh’s response.
Also probably a large factor is there was a little thing called the Corona virus that kept Republicans like me from going to the poll, where there were no competitive races and the only reason to go was to support Trump.
Comment by LkBrightSideofLlife Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:05 pm
=== those leaving are predominately Republican (at least the people I know)===
Anecdotal ain’t data.
=== People aren’t changing parties as much as they are changing location===
Cite please. Also, look at Rauner’s own numbers downstate… just downstate… you’re wishing, you have no data.
=== See DownstateMeh’s response.===
Angry and rural isn’t data, it’s a type.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:08 pm
Also…
=== I think you miss the part were the population is shrinking in Illinois and those leaving are…===
If you’re going to go all “Kassian” to prove a theory, bring data. Kass is about making *you* and others angry, as *he* still lives here and makes his hay off *your* anger he incites your anger more.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:11 pm
Dems need to figure out how to make a Dem congressional seat with Champaign in it. And I dont think the answer is linking it up to south suburbs any more than linking it to Metro East was the answer.
McLean County had nearly 60% of voters pull Dem ballots. I think there is a Dem seat to be had around I-72 and I-74.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:12 pm
“Here is a crazy idea… present a compelling platform with honest normal people.“
Agree very much.
How did a Republican governor in deep blue Massachusetts win in a landslide in 2018? From the little I know and read, Gov. Baker is decent. A lot of voters like him. Rauner wasn’t and Trump isn’t decent. We’ve had anti-union zealotry with Rauner and bigotry with Trump. This does not fly anywhere except in more rural areas where populations are smaller.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:15 pm
=a little thing called the Corona virus that kept Republicans like me from going to the poll=
Is “Republicans like me” a euphemism for old white dudes? Cuz I think that’s part of the problem…
Comment by LakeCo Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:20 pm
Wasn’t it just 2 years ago that the Dem primary vote exceeded the GOP primary vote in DuPage for the first time?
Now the GOP gets 27.26% of the 2 party vote - or get clobbered nearly 3 to 1.
That’s not just GOP members leaving the state. That’s a trend that should give the Ives and Oberwiess campaign managers some serious ulcers.
If that kind of trend holds up in suburban areas throughout the country - 2020 is going to be a serious serious rout for the GOP.
Comment by train111 Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:24 pm
=People aren’t changing parties as much as they are changing location.=
Please explain Jim Oberweis and Jeanne Ives for me. You run lousy candidates you get lousy results.
Comment by Pundent Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:26 pm
= Where is Bailey County? =
The only Bailey County I can find is in Texas. It’s county seat is Muleshoe (I am NOT making that up). It’s named after a guy who died at the Alamo (and I’m not making that up, either).
Comment by JoanP Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:34 pm
The three most popular governors in America - Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan - are all republicans in very blue states. Seems the ILGOP wants to place blame on anyone or anything but themselves
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:51 pm
=== The three most popular governors in America - Phil Scott, Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan - are all republicans in very blue states. Seems the ILGOP wants to place blame on anyone or anything but themselves===
Where - Lester Holt’s Mustache - calls out the Raunerites who ruined the GOP, then let the Trumpkins bury what has been left.
That’s a top shelf look-see at how bad it’s gotten.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:55 pm
=== How did a Republican governor in deep blue Massachusetts win in a landslide in 2018? ===
I have a lot of family in the Bay State. I lived there in the 1980’s when it still had a relevant but declining GOP. By the end of that decade the Mass legislature was overwhelmingly Dem and many voters in the suburbs saw the Gov’s office as a check on the excesses of the legislature. As long as the GOP Gov wasn’t vetoing reasonable social initiatives the voters would reelect them, and the results were Govs like Weld, Romney and Baker. However, successes with the Gov did not generally translate to substantial gains in other offices in the state legislature or at the federal level.
Comment by muon Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 3:57 pm
It’s a great time to pull your head out. Kudos for that.
Fair warning, you’re not gonna like what you see.
Comment by XonXoff Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:01 pm
And Muon that may be the path to relevance here in Illinois. It could (or should) have been the Rauner path to success. Check the MJM machine. Support a reasonable mix of tax increases and revenue cuts to improve the state’s fiscal position. Instead he obstructed as much as possible and made it all worse.
Comment by Funtimes Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:04 pm
=== Instead he obstructed===
You mean Rauner obstructed
“I’m frustrated too but taking steps to reform Illinois is more important then a short term budget stalemate.”
Also, explain Ken Dunkin.
So I’m clear where you’re at.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:08 pm
=== center-right political firm ===
The problem with the GOP is that they are now right-ultra extreme right.
Comment by Norseman Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:09 pm
I have traditionally voted Republican but pulled a Democratic primary ballot in 2018 and 2020 because there were actual Primary contests on the Democratic side that I wanted to have a say in (and not to spoil the vote). I wanted to vote for the Democratic AG and Gubernatorial candidates (because I knew that contest would be decided in March, not November) and I wanted to vote for a Democratic Presidential nominee that I, as a typical Republican, could vote for in November instead of not voting at all for the President in November. The GOP turnout numbers in Illinois are definitely waning, but it isn’t all because Republicans are leaving the state in greater numbers than Democrats. Some of us are choosing to vote in contests where our vote may count, rather than being loyal to our party on all counts.
Comment by Long-time Voter, First Time Caller Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:22 pm
- Steve Rogers - Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 2:25 pm:
DuPage Saint, Don’t forget Mary Miller, who is guaranteed to take her anti-godless socialism and all my kids love Trump message to DC.
———————
And if Miller wins, come 2022 she will be looking at a primary with LaHood (if seat elimination is based on GOP rep seniority), or either Bost and/or Davis (if based on geography).
Comment by Leatherneck Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:34 pm
bailey county Clay
Comment by leonard Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:51 pm
The biggest issue is voters nominate extremist candidates in primaries who can’t win a general in an even marginally competitive seat (see Oberweis and Ives.) Heck, Mary Miller would lose LaHood’s or Kinzinger’s district.
Comment by Token Conservative Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 4:53 pm
=== The biggest issue is voters nominate extremist candidates in primaries who can’t win a general in an even marginally competitive seat===
See: Mulligan, Rosemary… Beaubien, Mark.
You’re 100% spot on.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:03 pm
Willy the entire 109th closely compares to clay a couple of counties were even more lop sided
Comment by leonard Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:09 pm
- leonard -
Excuse me, what?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:10 pm
=== bailey county Clay===
I’ll be the first to admit my typos and such are legendary but what is that?
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:12 pm
Older Illinoians were told to stay home due to the virus after it was all but too late to get an absentee…older folks tend to be more Republican.
Comment by anon Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:14 pm
=== told to stay home due to the virus after it was all but too late to get an absentee===
Explain the expanded early voting.
Thanks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:15 pm
In the entire 109th you are hard pressed to find a democrat any where and a large group would be willing to die for Trump
Comment by leonard Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:28 pm
===…hard pressed to find a democrat any where and a large group would be willing to die for Trump===
Democrats aren’t at issue here.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:31 pm
also Adam Niemerg has said that Bailey is the greatest thing since Donald Trump Adam is the republican candidate to replace Bailey
Comment by leonard Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:34 pm
Think I got ya now;
=== In the entire 109th you are hard pressed to find a democrat any where and a large group would be willing to die for Trump===
When talking about the macro state versus the micro districts or counties, the Hateful Eight types who are the seven who support Trump, I’d point to Cook and the collars at the depleted GOP GA caucuses, and the number of members that represent those counties.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 5:37 pm
New GOP re-election plan, I wonder who will play Alan Alda’s role in the remake of Canadian Bacon? https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/canada-tells-us-put-troops-border-pandemic-69815070
Comment by former southerner Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 6:38 pm
Like others, I won’t be voting GOP until they disavow Trump, and others like him. Get normal decent people. Stay out of my bedroom and medical treatments just like you want the government to stay out of our wallets. And for heaven’s sake, don’t make statements like the old folks are willing to be sacrificed so the nation can get back to work.
Comment by thoughts matter Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 7:04 pm
==== …If that kind of trend holds up in suburban areas throughout the country - 2020 is going to be a serious serious rout for the GOP.===
from you lips to god’s ears. i do hope that we can get national political realignment in 2020 for the sake of the environment, supreme court, and access to health care for all.
also for values like social cohesion and a common reality instead of trump’s racism and the general right wing obession with conspiracy theories.
my dream is tempered by trump’s approval ratings which have moved up; now in the mid to upper 40s. IL GOP will not benefit from that tho.
Comment by thornwood Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 9:19 pm
For much of Champaign County, the non-competitive U.S. Senate race was the only contested primary people could vote on. I know people to the right of Attila the Hun who took a Democratic ballot for the first time.
Comment by T.J. Thursday, Mar 26, 20 @ 10:21 pm
== In the entire 109th you are hard pressed to find a democrat any where==
So you mean the 109th district represented by Darren Bailey and including Clay County. Except in Clay County a fourth of the voters voted for Pritzker, Pritzker got 1104 votes and Rauner got 3314 votes. The others counties in the 109 had more or less the same proportion. 1 out of 4 vote Democrat.
== and a large group would be willing to die for Trump.==
That might be more literal than you think. Please don’t listen to Trump, don’t go back to crowds by Easter, don’t swallow any medicine he recommends. Stay safe.
Comment by Muddy trail Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 6:56 am
== For much of Champaign County, the non-competitive U.S. Senate race was the only contested primary people could vote on. I know people to the right of Attila the Hun who took a Democratic ballot for the first time.==
Durbin ran uncontested. For the Republican side there was a contest between Mark Curran, Peggy Hubbard and Robert Marshall. So who was Attila the Hun voting for with a Democratic ballet?
Comment by Muddy trail Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 7:01 am
Attila votes for Stephanie Smith?
Comment by All this Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 7:30 am
== New GOP re-election plan, I wonder who will play Alan Alda’s role in the remake of Canadian Bacon?==
Maybe the troops are to keep Americans in? What do people do when they lost their jobs and have no more medical insurance? Treating Covid-19 is costing people over $30,000.
Comment by All this Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 7:45 am
== numbers from Bailey county 2829 republican 517 democrat ballots cast==
In Clay county 460 voted in the Democratic presidential primary and 1921 voted in the Republican senate primary. 24% took a Democratic ballot. So if you can’t find any Democrats you ain’t looking.
Comment by Muddy trail Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 7:57 am
It would probably help if the Republican party had leadership that didn’t drive out anyone who is conservative
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 9:49 am
=== It would probably help if the Republican party had leadership that didn’t drive out anyone who is conservative===
LOL, yeah, folks are clamoring to support Ives and Oberweis…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 27, 20 @ 11:52 am