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* Gov. JB Pritzker held a press conference in Chicago today, saying he wanted to talk about how to “preserve the progress” that this state has made on COVID-19. Make sure to pardon all transcription errors…
The people of Illinois have once again proven themselves to be the most resilient dedicated and compassionate people in the United States to put some perspective on this, Illinois now has the lowest infection rates among all of our neighboring states, between one half and one third of their positivity rates. Indeed we have one of the lowest positivity rates in the country. And it’s because of the individual actions of millions of residents. […]
Ours was the first state in the nation to be able to test for COVID-19. Now Illinois is hitting a record weekly average of more than 33,000 tests per day, crossing the 2 million test threshold earlier this week. […]
And we have tripled the number of contact tracers that we had just six weeks ago.
In the first two months, our seven-day rolling average positivity reached over 23% at its peak. Today we’re averaging 3%. […]
That said, many people want to know if we’re out of the woods, and they’re wondering what’s next. So I’m here today to outline the path ahead and make sure that we all know what will cause us to impose further mitigations.
* OK, here we go…
The epidemiologists and professionals at IDPH have determined that we need to take action in a region if we see a sustained rise in the positivity rate, along with either a sustained increase in COVID-19 hospital admissions, or a reduction in hospital surge capacities.
A sustained rise in the positivity rate is defined as an increase in the seven-day rolling average for seven days out of a 10 day period. In addition, if any region hits three consecutive days of an 8% average positivity rate that will require action period. […]
We’re also today changing the boundaries and the number of health regions in Illinois. Unlike when we first introduced the restoring Illinois plan at the beginning of May, our growth in testing and tracing has given us a much more surgical ability to manage outbreaks and address problems locally. […]
For example, the city of Chicago will be in a region of its own. As will suburban Cook County. As for the collar counties, we’ve shifted regions based on geographic contiguity. For example, Kendall and Grundy counties will now be in a region that is not part of the collar counties. […]
This plan lays out an array of mitigation strategies that can be applied if a region breaches the Resurgence metrics. These mitigations cover categories like bars and restaurants, meetings, social events, religious gatherings and organized group recreational activities like adult and youth sports.
I’ll get you those maps as soon as I receive them. Updates in a moment.
* Youth sports…
I’m also deeply troubled by outbreaks that we’re seeing all around the state tied to activities like youth sports, like in Lake Zurich where dozens of students and parents have tested positive in a related outbreak. And in Knox County, where a teen softball league is also experiencing an outbreak. Remember, the degree to which we can reduce risk and restore aspects of our daily lives is still unfolding. We’re continually evaluating what works and what doesn’t work. And we’re taking a good hard look at how youth sports fits into that conversation.
* Regarding the ISBE guidelines for reopening schools…
To be very clear here, any district that intends to disregard this guidance is gambling with the lives of our children, teachers, and families. Districts that don’t live up to public health guidelines and standards and don’t make a genuine attempt to protect their communities from this virus could be held liable in the courts by community members who are ill-affected.
I’m a father. I understand that parents are worried sick about having to choose between seeing their kids miss even more in-person schooling at critical ages and the very real threat of this virus. Good people with good intentions can disagree on how and when kids should go back to school. But let me be clear, I wouldn’t let my own children return to a school where masks are not mandatory and serious effort hasn’t been made to keep students distanced during the day. This should not be controversial.
* Here are the new regions…
NORTH: Boone, Carroll, DeKalb, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Stephenson, Whiteside, Winnebago
NORTH-CENTRAL: Bureau, Fulton, Grundy, Henderson, Henry, Kendall, Knox, La Salle, Livingston, Marshall, McDonough, McLean, Mercer, Peoria, Putnam, Rock Island, Stark, Tazewell, Warren, Woodford
WEST-CENTRAL: Adams, Brown, Calhoun, Cass, Christian, Greene, Hancock, Jersey, Logan, Macoupin, Mason, Mason, Menard, Montgomery, Morgan, Pike, Sangamon, Schuyler, Scott
METRO EAST: Bond, Clinton, Madison, Monroe, Randolph, St. Clair, Washington
SOUTHERN: Alexander, Edwards, Franklin, Gallatin, Hamilton, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Johnson, Marion, Massac, Perry, Pope, Pulaski, Saline, Union, Wabash, Wayne, White, Williamson
EAST-CENTRAL: Champaign, Clark, Clay, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, De Witt, Douglas, Edgar, Effingham, Fayette, Ford, Iroquois, Jasper, Lawrence, Macon, Moultrie, Piatt, Richland, Shelby, Vermillion
SOUTH SUBURBAN: Kankakee, Will
WEST SUBURBAN: DuPage, Kane
NORTH SUBURBAN: Lake, McHenry
SUBURBAN COOK: Suburban Cook
CHICAGO: City of Chicago
* Metrics that will trigger mitigation…
• Sustained increase in 7-day rolling average (7 out of 10 days) in the positivity rate and one of the following severity indicators:
o Sustained 7-day increase in hospital admissions for a COVID-19 like illness
o Reduction in hospital capacity threatening surge capabilities (ICU capacity or medical/surgical beds < 20%)• OR three consecutive days averaging ≥ 8% positivity rate
* Mitigation…
Some mitigation strategies in higher risk settings, like indoor bars and restaurants, will be automatically applied in a region that meets resurgence criteria to prevent rapid spread of COVID-19. A larger list of mitigation strategies relating to settings like retail, fitness, and salons and personal care will be available if testing and contact tracing data at the local level indicate those mitigations to be prudent.
* Contact tracing…
The state has also worked to expand its contact tracing operation, with approximately 1,450 contact tracers now working across Illinois. Over the next week, 26 local health departments will receive additional funding from the state, representing over $127 million of available grant funds for contact tracing. With these funds, local health departments will hire approximately 1,330 contact tracers over the next few months and significantly expand their contact tracing efforts.
The state currently has about a third of the tracers it needs.
* Back to the governor…
When you go out without a mask, or host secret parties, stuff your bar or restaurant to capacity despite the warnings, ignore common sense in your worship practices, it’s not a political statement. You’re hurting your neighbor who is desperate to keep their business open, or your friend who has an immunocompromised child who has been inside for months, or your parents who don’t have the same defenses against this virus that you may.
I’ll have questions on another post.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:15 pm
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For downstate, the new Restore regions appear to mostly match the EMS regions (the basis of the original 4 Restore regions). With a notable exception of Kendall and Grundy Counties moved to the North Central region (e.g., Peoria, Bloomington, Galesburg, Quad Cities).
Comment by Chatham Resident Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:25 pm
Clay County really needs to be its own region. /s
Comment by Zim Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:30 pm
Anyone else think that IL has too many counties?
Comment by Anon E Moose Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:30 pm
It’s frustrating that we can’t even do minor tightening of current standards, like Michigan did with bars before July 4th weekend.
There are so many individual levers to pull, but there is an unwillingness to do so until it is possibly too late.
Comment by Served Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:31 pm
Hat tip to Zim.
Good on the Governor’s staff green-lighting more regional variance. It won’t change much for the way my family and I have been responding to the pandemic — both my spouse and I live in one region while working in another — but I’m hopeful (though not especially optimistic) that maybe some of the backlash will be more muted.
Comment by thunderspirit Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:34 pm
Following the comments on WSIL’s facebook live feed of presser - Southern IL STILL doesn’t grasp any of this. ~ sigh ~
Comment by DownSouth Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:38 pm
I wish he hadn’t raised the spectre of unleashing the plaintiff’s bar on local school districts. Not cool. Board members, superintendents, principals, teachers and staff are frazzled enough as it is.
Comment by Morelight Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:41 pm
went on a walk last night in Horner Park, Chicago. Basketball courts were packed. good 50-75 people, no masks and all on top of each other. When not playing totally congregating. they going to shut us all down. As soon as I saw that Dupage sports camp outbreak my hear sank. How the hell do we go back to school… ugh.
Comment by 44th Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:47 pm
Trial lawyers vs Unions
Who is more powerful in Illinois?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:49 pm
I dunno. I have a kid in a school district that is talking about coming back to school full time, no masks, because its freedom-loving community can’t bear the thought of their kids in masks. I’m glad to see there are some repercussions for this kind of idiocy.
Comment by Wpeac Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 12:54 pm
I get the additional regions and think that separating Metro East from the rest of southern Illinois makes sense based on commuting patterns. Most other splits make sense, too, since health resources can be better targeted in the smaller regions.
The move of Kendall to North Central is strange since large suburban cities like Joliet and Aurora extend into Kendall. Aurora, the second largest city in the state, is now divided between three regions: West Suburban, South Suburban and North Central. Rush Copley Hospital is the major health care facility in that part of Aurora and sits almost exactly on the boundary between those new divisions. I’m not clear on how splitting the regions there helps when tracking and dealing with case surges.
Comment by muon Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 1:01 pm
It’s still baffling to me that we rushed ahead to phase 4 despite not coming close to meeting the contact tracing requirements.
We did so well early on, and it’s looking like we threw it all away.
Schools are going to be an absolute disaster.
Comment by Brickle Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 1:11 pm
44, hoops are still removed at our local park.
Comment by Original Rambler Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 1:14 pm
Hoops are still removed by me as well. However, various adult-sports leagues have re-started in Chicago. I’m not sure if this includes outdoor basketball leagues. I have friends doing softball/kickball leagues in Lincoln Park currently.
Comment by 1st Ward Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 1:30 pm
Funny how Will and Kankakee counties are assigned the “South Suburban” label, when the actual South and Southwest suburbs of Cook County are just lumped in with Cook County. But I guess they had to call the zones something. Meanwhile, in the real South Suburban area, infection rates continue to increase in 60827, 60419, 60406, 60409, 60473, and 60426 Zip Codes. And we’re worried about sports???
Comment by revvedup Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 1:47 pm
Zim Good call…
Now who want’s to bet Bailey and DeVore come out with a video statement against everything the Governor said today?
Comment by Just wondering Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 2:26 pm
Yes.
Comment by Anon E Moose Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 3:13 pm
Just noticed that the metric is “positivity rate,” which just tells you if your testing is sufficient. It doesn’t tell you if you have anything under control.
If we’re at 3% positive but with no real contact tracing or containment efforts and 1k+ cases per day, we should be rolling back to Phase 3.
Increasingly disappointed in JB here.
Comment by brickle Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 3:26 pm
=Clay County really needs to be its own region. /s=
That is not snark.
=Trial lawyers vs Unions
Who is more powerful in Illinois?=
Glad to see your Trump-like focus on the crisis never waivers.
=Schools are going to be an absolute disaster.=
Some but not all. The big buildings will be tough. For those clamoring for consolidation, you may want to rethink that one. Smaller rural districts where the locals have a clue and are doing things the right way will be ok.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 4:25 pm
Still senseless. Mixing large downstate metro areas with rural counties while splitting up the more homogenous suburban counties doesn’t make sense.
If you’re going to split this up, Carroll County shouldn’t be lumped with Winnebago.
Clay and Cumberland shouldn’t be lumped with Champaign-Macon-Sangamon
Henry, Henderson and Fulton shouldn’t be lumped with Peoria and Rock Island.
Comment by Shemp Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 4:56 pm
@Shemp: The suburban counties all have local hospital capacity. The hospitals serving the rural counties you listed are located in the metro areas you listed.
Comment by CEA Wednesday, Jul 15, 20 @ 5:55 pm