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* Democrats have been paranoid for weeks that Cindy Ardis-Jenkins was merely a placeholder in the race to replace state Rep. Aaron Schock (R-Perioa). Schock is running for Congress and is therefore abandoning his House seat. Ardis-Jenkins is the sister of Peoria Mayor Jim Ardis. Local Dems have been convinced that if Schock loses the congressional primary race then Ardis-Jenkins would bow out of the state Rep. race. That may paranoia may be unfounded considering this very interesting development…
[Peoria] Mayor Jim Ardis pledged his support for 18th Congressional District candidate and Heartland Partnership CEO Jim McConoughey on Wednesday, labeling him as the “most experienced and proven leader” to fill the vacancy.
Ardis, who serves as mayor for the largest city in the district, is asking those who voted for him to vote for McConoughey in the Feb. 5 primary.
“Jim McConoughey is by far the best choice among the three and understands what role our congressman needs to have in this community,” Ardis said in a news release.
Despite all his early missteps and the fact that retiring Congressman Ray LaHood has so far not endorsed him, plus the mayor of the district’s largest city backing one of his two opponents, and the fact that such a young candidate doesn’t even appear to have a campaign website yet, Schock should probably still be considered the frontrunner. He’s been on the air in a big way with well-produced TV ads, for instance, and he seems by far to be the candidate who will do whatever it takes to win when crunch time comes.
* Meanwhile, Fako & Associates (an Illinois polling firm) has a must-read post over at Illinoize…
Around this time of year you’ll start to notice newspapers reporting “re-elect” numbers in their headlines and press releases and fundraising memos from candidates stating Congressman XX has a re-elect number of only XX% (Always way below 50%). […]
Beware of these numbers when reported on their own, without other supporting information.
“Re-elect” questions, in our experience, usually reflect suppressed levels of support for candidates and don’t show a true status of an incumbent’s re-election standing. For example, in 2006 we polled in a Midwestern congressional district for a prospective challenger. The incumbent had a very low (26%) re-elect number, but that same official had nearly a 50% positive job approval rating and a personal favorability rating that was twenty points higher than the re-elect assessment. We’ve seen similar discrepancies between re-elect questions and other incumbent assessment items in our surveys and other polls throughout the years.
The “Re-Elect” question, in its various forms, should never be interpreted on its own as the tell-tale sign of an incumbent’s prospects. It should only be factored in the evaluation when it is accompanied by related questions whose data also support its conclusion.
Keep that in mind when you read upcoming poll stories. Go read the whole thing. It’s worth a minute of your time.
* This isn’t exactly a congressional story, but it involves a congressman….
Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. teamed up with organized labor earlier this year to help send his wife and several other newcomers to the City Council. But he resisted union pressure to drop support for longtime ally Howard Brookins Jr., even though Brookins, the 21st Ward alderman, was a labor target for opposing the big-box minimum-wage ordinance.
“I’ve known Howard Brookins all my life,” Jackson said before aldermanic runoff elections in April. “I’m not going to lose my friendship with him over a political issue.”
But Brookins has just found out that friendship doesn’t always translate into political support.
The alderman is now fighting five others for the Democratic nomination for Cook County state’s attorney, but he’ll have to campaign without the endorsement of Jackson. Brookins says his old friend told him recently that he’ll be supporting another candidate, most likely Cook County commissioner Larry Suffredin, because the congressman refuses to back anyone allied with Cook County Board president Todd Stroger or commissioner William Beavers. Beavers is now running against Jackson’s wife, alderman Sandi Jackson, for Democratic committeeman of the Seventh Ward.
* More endorsements for Congressman Lipinski’s opponents…
Cook County Commissioner Forrest Claypool endorsed Mark Pera, an assistant county prosecutor from Western Springs. Claypool, who has positioned himself as a reformer, said Pera would be “an independent leader.”
In the southwest suburbs, Palos Hills Mayor Jerry Bennett claimed that several dozen of his suburban mayoral colleagues were backing him. The list included Ed Zabrocki of Tinley Park, who confirmed he’s backing Bennett. A couple others didn’t call back today.
* More congressional stories….
* Double election, double the work - New petitions needed to replace Hastert
* Domestic concerns rise in poll
* Oprah/Obama event in South Carolina moved to football stadium
* Huckabee gets last spot on ballot for Illinois GOP primary
* FCC chair gets Congressional scold - Martin takes heat for rushing ownership vote
* Chicago Public Radio: Green party looking to gain credibility through Illinois primary
*** UPDATE 1 *** I somehow missed Bernie’s column today. As I told you above, Aaron Schock is already running TV ads. One of the claims in the ad I’ve seen is that he “Passed 13 bills.” This isn’t an accurate count on several levels. First, Bernie found, Schock actually passed 22 bills out of the House, but ony 13 of those made it to the governor’s desk. And then there’s this…
Five of the bills that ultimately were sent to the governor were originally introduced by Schock. The other eight were Senate bills that were sponsored by Schock when they arrived in the House. […]
“When I say I passed a bill, that means carrying it through the House,” he said. “What I can control as a state rep in the House chamber is to get my colleagues” to approve the legislation. “Those are the terms we’ve used in the last four years” to describe how many bills he’s passed.
That spin may be open to interpretation, but it’s definitely not completely honest. And there’s more…
Of the 13 Schock bills that passed both houses, the votes on all but one were unanimous or nearly unanimous, indicating they were not the kind of emotion-filled issues that make for long debates
I’m positive that the Peoria Journal-Star will mention these discrepancies.
Nah. Who am I kidding?
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 9:54 am
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Is it possible for a person in Illinois to simultaneously run for two offices. Say they run for Congress but they’re also seeking re-election to their original office such as in the case of Mr. Schock, state rep.
Comment by Levois Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 9:56 am
Let me get this straight, former Republican state representative Ed Zabrocki endorsed Jerry Bennett in the Democratic primary? Am I the only one who believes that Bennett and Capparelli are shills for the Lipinski clan?
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 10:24 am
Levois:
I believe the answer to your question is no. You might be able to hold Township office and another office (not the county board, however), but you cannot run simultaneously for two posts.
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 10:28 am
I keep getting a ton of campaign stuff from Schock.
Comment by Crimefighter Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 10:35 am
claypool? zabrocki? what do these guys have to do with the 3rd district?
do bennett, pera or caparelli have any endorsements from any elected officials in the district?
Comment by southguy Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 10:50 am
I live in the 3rd and I could give a rat’s a$$ if my mayor supported one candidate over another. Or any other elected official. That’s the problem with this Lipinski guy. He games the political establishment to get a congressional seat, a CONGRESSIONAL SEAT, for cripes sake. He better reflects the voting sentiments of the Tennessee town he fled before he came here to rescue us.
Comment by Joe in the Know Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 11:03 am
Most politicians pander to their constituents and everyone complains.
Lipinski doesn’t pander to his constituents and everyone complains.
Comment by True Observer Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 11:27 am
Whats everyone hearing on the Dem primary for Schocks House seat? To me, that is the most interesting primary.
I think Schock will win the Repub primary.
Comment by Tito Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 11:38 am
Is anyone else amazed that JJJ is not going with Howard Brookins? Also, what is the status with Brookins’ petition challenges? Is Tommy Brewer going to be able to stay on the ballot?
Comment by paddyrollingstone Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 11:40 am
Tito needs to come out of hibernation.
In the 18th, the Democrats are going to let Dick Versace try to win it with a shot from back court.
Comment by True Observer Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 12:02 pm
WBEZ also has a detailed longer story on the what the Greens are up to here:
http://www.chicagopublicradio.org/Content.aspx?audioID=16228
Comment by GreenPartySupporter Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 1:19 pm
PEORIA JOURNAL-STAR should report stories even if they don’t help thier guy.
Shame on you for your lack of integrity.
Comment by SHAME ON YOU Thursday, Dec 6, 07 @ 2:50 pm